With another seven days left until the deadline for Gameweek 4, there’s plenty time to ponder the numbers in our Members section. While some Fantasy managers still contemplate pressing the wildcard button, we take a look at some of the most notable attacking statistics on offer so far – in the first in a series of three articles, we begin with the defenders.
- Assessing the premium defenders
Seen a few people asking for thoughts on this, so i thought i'd give my take. Feel free to give your own opinion too
Assessing the premium defenders:
For the sake of the post, will list who i've picked out as premium defender options( playing for the top 6 + Baines) (price is at the time of writing)
Baines- 7.5
Koscielny- 5.4
Mertesacker- 5.5
Sagna- 5.5
Gibbs- 5.5
Agger- 6
Enrique- 6.1
Toure- 5
Johnson- 6
Azpi- 5.6
Terry- 6
Cahill- 6
Cole- 6.5
Ivanovic- 6.5
Luiz- 6.3
Evra- 6.5
Jones- 6
Rafael- 6
Vidic- 6
Rio- 5.5
Kompany- 6.4
Zabaleta- 6.3
Nastasic- 5.5
Lescott- 5.6
Clichy- 6
Vertonghen- 7
Walker- 6
Other options in those teams which i've emitted due to being new signings/rotation risks that could come into contention:
Demichellis- 6
Sakho- 5.5
Richards- 5.3
Skrtel- 5.4
Evans- 5.2
Chiriches- 5.5
Dawson- 5
Kaboul- 4.9
Vermaelen- 5.5
Frisking the fixtures by games in which they don't play the rest of the top 6
(Everton not included in this as i class Baines as premium for his attacking potential, not clean sheets, although i'm not saying Everton won't do well in this regard) (Until around Jan WC)
Baines- GW's 5,6,8,9,11,13 & 16-22
Arsenal- Gw's 4-9, 12-15 18-24
Chelsea- GW's 4,5, 7, 8, 10-16, 18, 20,21
Man City- GW's 4, 6-8, 10, 11, 13-15, 17, 19-22
Man United- GW's 4. 6-10, 12, 14-19, 21, 23-25
Liverpool- GW's 4-9, 11-15, 17, 20-24
Spurs- GW's 4,5, 7-11, 14, 15, 17-19, 21, 22
*A caveat is that you will usually play your premium defender regardless of the fixtures most times due to their price, and that fixtures between the top clubs have the potential to be stalemates more than the easier fixtures, so can be lucrative for your premium defenders. Just a few examples of it this season:
Liverpool 1-0 United
Arsenal 1-0 Spurs
United 0-0 Chelsea
A few other conclusions:
- Arsenal and Liverpool have the best spread of fixtures in terms of playing a batch of easy teams, then a couple top 6, then easy fixture again
-City and Everton play the joint least games against teams outside top 6(As stated above, Everton is included for City's games that aren't vs top 6, but not vice versa)
- Man United play the most games against teams outside the top 6 based on the frisk above.
How i think the premium defences will line up and my reasoning:
Baines-
No comment on this, as Baines is basically Everton for the premium defenders.
Arsenal- Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs.
This was the 1st choice back line at the end of last season, and nothing has changed this year to disrupt it.
Man City- Zabaleta, Nastasic, Kompany, Clichy.
This was the 1st choice back line last season, but that was under Mancini. I do expect it to remain the 1st choice one under Pellegrini too though. Richards could stake a claim at RB, but he seems too injury prone to be a genuine option, and i don't think Pellegrini has a reason to drop Zabaleta yet. If he has more games like the one against Cardiff, then it could be a real possibility.
I believe Demichellis was also just signed as cover due to the injury prone-ness of Kompany. He was probably the easiest to get, as Pellegrini knew him well from his ex club. If Pellegrini wanted a defender to be 1st choice, i think he would've bought someone better than Demichellis, who is getting on a bit. You have to question why Atleti let him go, after having bought him the same summer.
This is just conjecture, but i don't think he's good enough to be 1st choice for a title chasing side. Nastasic was very impressive last season, and i really think Pellegrini will rate him alot, and start him alongside Kompany whenever he can.
This brings me to Lescott. Imo, he's on thin ice, and has been lucky due to Kompany and Nastasic getting injured. He should be okay for the near future, but when all fit i think he drops back to the bench. I don't rate him too well on the ball, he isn't composed enough and City fans also seem to be in agreement. They get nervous everytime he's in a situation where he needs to display his ball retention abilities. He's also been playing on his weaker right side, so has struggled alot without someone like Kompany next to him. Nastasic is a more calmer presence than Lescott on the ball and i think Pellegrini will trust him more. Clichy 1st choice based on last season and being a better defender than Kolarov. He was just rotated in GW 3.
Chelsea- Ivanovic, Terry, Luiz, Cole
3 of that back 4 were the clear 1st choice last season. Ivanovic was mostly being rotated at CB, whilst azpi played the majority at RB. Azpi was unavailable in GW1 due to fitness issues. However after that he was in the squad, so presumably fit, but Mourinho left him on the bench for the last 3 games. This could be a case of him making the RB spot Ivanovic's to lose, or just easing Azpilicueta in. Either way, Mourinho has said these two are his primary RB's. He's had the opportunity to play Ivanovic at CB with Azpi at RB, but hasn't done so. Could be fitness related, but more likely imo is that he sees Ivanovic purely as a RB, until 2 of Cahill, Terry, Luiz get injured. In conclusion, i don't think either are safe long term. Ivanovic seems to have the spot now, but Azpi was very good last season, so i don't expect the former to be a secure starter going forward.
Cole is cole. I think Terry and Luiz pick themselves, with Terry being captain(this isn't a great reason(see vermaelen at arsenal) but it's all i have, and Luiz is their best CB with Mourinho saying he has to play every game. Mourinho said Terry would play if he was fit and playing well. However Cahill has looked solid too, so wouldn't be surprised if he randomly played over Terry. However i'd still expect EBJT to play more.
Man United- Rafael, Vidic, Rio, Evra
Was the 1st choice back 4 last season, and will be this season. In terms of nailed-onness i'd put the order as: Evra, Vidic, Rafael, Rio. Evra should play every game he's fit for, as he's by far the best LB at the club, with his cover being shoddy at best. Vidic is captain, and 1st choice CB. Will play the majority, but could be due some rotation around CL games. This will be the case with Rio too, if so i'd expect Evans to be 1st in line to deputise. Jones has arguably lept above Smalling in the CB and RB stakes, as the latter seems to really have regressed. Don't think Moyes will play Jones in midfield at all now, due to the Fellaini signing. Rafael should be 1st choice RB when fit. Much like Coleman at Everton for Moyes, he'll be very important for the side when going forward in attack. Jones less adept at this, and just generally more clumsy.
Liverpool- GJ, Agger, Sakho, Enrique
The fullbacks pick themselves. Imo Agger is just as nailed on providing he stays fit, as he's the vice captain, and best CB at the club. I've put Sakho as i predict he'll establish himself later on in the season as 1st choice. Right now, i wouldn't expect him to get a free pass into the starting XI, just due to his reputation/price tag. 1) he may take time to adapt to the league 2) He's been bought as a long term solution at CB 3) Toure hasn't really put a foot wrong
So i would say, it's a good idea to think about Sakho, but not for a while, until we see that he's firmly ahead of Toure in the pecking order. Another option is Skrtel, but Rodgers didn't seem keen on him last season when fit, and i don't think one good performance v United will have changed that. So i reckon he'll be cover for Toure/Agger/Sakho. A small point is that Rodgers could see Agger/Toure as being a better balanced pairing with their natural LCB-RCB partnership, but not sure it is too big a deal.
Liverpool do also have the perfect complement of players to go 3 at the back and Rodgers tried it a few teams last season i believe. So Sakho, Toure and Agger may all start. This is just guesswork, but i definitely think it's a possibilty. If Rodgers wasn't thinking about this, then i imagine he'd have sold Skrtel by now, or only bought 1 of Llori/Sakho because Liverpool aren't in Europe so there isn't a need to be so stacked at CB.
Spurs- Rose, Vertonghen, Kaboul, Walker
Rose seems to be 1st choice this season with the departure of BAE. No further comment though as he's listed as a mid so not an option. Walker is nailed on at RB, and should play every game when fit imo. I think Kaboul is 1st choice when fit, with Chiriches being seen as the long term successor to Dawson. No idea how good he is so he could stake a claim now, seeing as he's AVB's signing, whereas neither Kaboul nor Dawson are. Kaboul was also given the captaincy in a Europa league game where Dawson played which suggests he's ahead of Dawson too when fit. I think you only need to watch Spurs to know that Dawson really doesn't seem comfortable in AVB's system with the high line. He's on very thin ice with Kaboul now back, so expect to see him rooted to the bench quite soon. There's reports about Chiriches saying that he's quite similar in style to Vertonghen, which is another reason why i think Kaboul will partner Vert. Chiriches as a long term option, that's also ready to be a starter now.
In games last season against the likes of Stoke, AVB played Vertonghen at LB for the extra height. This could happen again this season, which would result in a Chiriches-Kaboul CB pairing imo.
Stats for the premium defenders:
Zabaleta has got the most assists(2)
Ivanovic has had the most attempts at goal(5) with Lescott, Evra and GJ joint 2nd(4)
Koscielny has the best pass completion rate(98%) but only from 2 games, as he was suspended against Fulham
Out of the premium defenders to have played all 3 matches, Vertonghen has the best pass completion rate(95.9%). Terry and Mertesacker are 2nd and 3rd respecitvely, with pass completion rates of 91%+ too.
Baines has provided the most crosses as full back, with Cole providing the least.
The only premium defenders to have taken corners this season have been Baines(18), Walker(4) and Zabaleta(1)(this was just as a short corner routine against Cardiff though, so don't read anything into it)
FPL state that players get BPS scores based on these criteria:
For every 8 clearances, blocks and interceptions (total)
For every 8 recoveries
Making 3 successful tackles (net*)
Going by this, for the premium defenders:-
Rio Ferdinand has made the most interceptions(9)
Vidic has made the most clearances(31)
Terry has made the most blocks(3)
Enrique, Lescott and Vertonghen have made the most recoveries(23)
Glen Johnson and Zabaleta are far and away the best from the games played so far in terms of most tackles made/won with GJ winning 12 out of his 15 tackles, and Zabaleta winning 10 out of his 13.
Only premium defenders that take some free kicks are; Baines, Walker, Vertonghen and Luiz. Kaboul may take the odd one too, but i'd imagine he's abit further down in the pecking order
Lastly, apologies for a few stats taken from the members area. Most are from whoscored.com though.Open Controls
wow demi...had to stop reading half-way through...so who are you getting?
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Did mouri really say Luiz was goingto start every game?
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Food for thought. What about some of the cheaper CB options, any of them worth considering as a fourth defender, with the intention of playing 4-3-3? Like Collins or Colocinni?
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Safe.
That might give some indication as to how common each defensive stat is, ie. clearances happen the most often, recoveries next most often, followed by some distance by interceptions and blocks are quite rare.
So it's worth focusing on clearances and recoveries out of those four.
Also interesting in trying to make sense of the apparently higher bonus CBs get over FBs.
Seems like CBs get more clearances. Seems like fullbacks might have a chance with recoveries as Enrique is in there, and fullbacks have the most tackles by some distance. I guess CBs prevail because clearances happen the most often, and they get better pass completion which matters a lot yielding up to 3 points for 90%.Open Controls
How about this for a team based on your goal/cs idea?
Boruc (Lewis)
Mertesacker - Sakho - Vidic - Ferdinand - Coleman
Walcott - HBA (Moses) (JWP) (Quinn)
RVP - Giroud - BentekeOpen ControlsActually on paper, you may be right in that the 5th defender (Coleman) may be looking at more CS (12? 14?) than the goals a 3rd midfielder could score (Nolan - 10 last year).
Sadly HBA is historically light on goals too (4 & 5 in last two seasons) although he can point to absence with injury of course, so I'd think it's important at the very least to get a solid goalscoring 2nd midfielder.Open Controls
u think the 2nd Goalscoring Mid could Phaernandes? hell het more free shot w help from michu n bony...Lampard at 8.1 im not being able to get as my 2nd
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Nice work.
I think the blocks/clearances/interceptions (I'll refer to this as B/C/I from here on) element to the bonus points is a bit of a red herring. You've picked out the players with the best stats for each of these elements in isolation, but when you combine all three elements together, they generally only contribute 1 bps to a defender's overall bps score, because very rarely do defenders reach the 16 combined B/C/I required to earn a 2nd bps point.
Only once did a defender earn 3 bps points from the combined metric, when Gabbidon did it against Sunderland (3 interceptions, 3 blocks and a mammoth 19 clearances). Only on 15 occasions did defenders earn 2 bps from B/C/I. This might sound like quite a few, but given there are 8 defenders in each game, and there have been 30 games, that represents a hit rate of just 6.7% of times where a defender earned more than 1 bps in a game from B/C/I.
When you think that a decent pass completion % alone will earn you 3bps and the clean sheet gets you 4bps, I think the B/C/I metric needs be given much less prominence in our FPL decisions.Open ControlsVery good point. I suppose i just put it out there to identify who the best players seem to be for these stats. Like you say, they generally won't be significant when the Bonuses are distributed.
Open ControlsSame with tackles. Across all positions in all games, only on 9 occasions has a player earned more than 1 bps from net tackles, and only 2 of those were defenders. It's just not that important a metric as far as bonus points is concerned.
Open ControlsVery comprehensive, seems like I could get an answer for a question that's been bugging me then, could you calculate the average defender bonus per CS? Interested in comparing it with the TFPL regression analysis.
Averages for CBs and FBs would be even better.Open ControlsDefenders have picked up clean sheet points (i.e. with at least 60 minutes playing time) on exactly 100 occasions. The 100 breaks down as follows:
49 - 0 baps
18 - 1 bap
16 - 2 baps
17 - 3 baps
I do have the raw stats to work out the CB/FB split, but it will take a bit longer.Open Controls
Nice.
Based on that, every CS is worth 1.01 bonus points.Open ControlsExcellent stuff, so that's a mean of 1.01 bonus per CS. But since it doesn't look remotely normal the mean would be inappropriate anyway. The median would just about sneak into 1 bonus.
This helps me understand how the TFPL regression analysis arrived at a bonus per CS estimate of about 0.86. http://development.totalfpl.com/Articles/181/testing-the-key-factors-for-bonus-points-under-bps
Can see potential to break it down into CS with 1 goal / CS with 2 goals / CS with 3+ goals but that's one for another day.
Cheers.Open Controls
Have been looking at the defenders over mids idea for a few weeks. Can find very few mids likely to outscore defenders from the top teams over the course of a season.
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Agreed, think the Pass Completion is the biggest factor contributing to the BPS
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Awesome.
This is a superb analysis, thanks.Open Controls
Never saw this happen.
A reply going green. 3rdTurd, you made history I think.Open ControlsNah, I've seen it happen a few times.
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Really nice work there Demi. I'm a fan of Evra this season as I think Moyes will look to use him a lot in attack in a similar way he used Baines at Everton.
It will also be interesting to see if Walker continues to take corners on that right hand side with the new signings now at Spurs. I'm also not particularly convinced Kaboul will be a certain starter just yet though.
Also you might have noticed that Zabaleta, despite his two assists, has been a little less attacking this term. I'll be keeping a close eye on Nastasic but will be wary of City's slightly more difficult run in to January and the fact that Kompany and the new guy could start ahead of him on occasion.
For Chelsea I'd like to say there is a CB that is absolutely nailed on but there is very little to choose between Terry, Luiz and Cahill with the latter doing quite well.Open ControlsGreat post, thanks Demster.
Open ControlsReally good work compiling all these figures Demi.
I would say that Koscielny's red makes no difference to a pass completion percentage since it is a percentage rather than a total. You could argue that the level he performed to in games he played would be replicated in games he missed if available. He is top dog on that basis (and 98% is insane!)
Also, data from three matches seems a bit 'knee-jerk' in that Man Utd, for example, have faced swa, CHE, liv, while City have faced NEW, car, HUL.
RE: Dawson, i've always thought he was out of his depth challenging for the CL. Decent player, but not good enough for me. Put him at Newcastle or WBA and he'd be a hero. At Spurs, he needs replacing.
Your thoughts on Chelsea's back four mirror my own. I can see Terry as first choice and Luiz is clearly a better player than Cahill. It's an uncertainty, but we will know in the coming weeks. Id put my £6m on JT.
Ultimately, there is plenty of isolated information for us to make our own, informed selections so thank you. This is why i feel FFS is the community for FPL knowledge share. Great work and +1!Open Controls
nice read +1
who would you pick for my backline to go along with these 4 ?!
Chester, M.Turner, Shaw, Evra _______ (max 7,9M)
GK is MigsOpen Controls
Excellent analysis Demi. It is not often i bookmark a post. But this is awesome! Thanks for your continued research on those likely to start. Your posts are most helpful!
Cheers,Open Controls
Get your own website Demi!
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Excellent stuff Demi wd.
I agree with almost everything except if Vert is moved to lb I think Dawson will be the CB due to his heading ability.
Also I did think pre-season that Lescott had a chance at cb but the high line Pellegrini is playing with the attacking fbs means Nastasic is probably better placed to partner Kompany (although I don't think nasty is a good enough defender for a championship winning team, way overhyped for me).Open Controls
Is Welbeck a good option for the next 3-6 games do people think? Nearly half as cheap as RVP and in great form
Open ControlsTough one. If 100% avoiding RVP, might be worth a shot.
My own tactic would be to get a striker who plays as a striker though.
If looking for United cover, not RVP, I'd get a proper striker up front and a Utd attacking mid, or maybe even Fellaini short term as he might go all out to prove himself early.Open Controls
Mind rating my WC team?
Mignolet,4.0
Walker,Vidic,Coleman,Collins(Chester)
Walcott,Nolan,Ben Arfa (Ward-Prowse,4.5)
RVP, Sturridge,Giroud
Could also go with Walcott,Lamela,Brady,Whitts,W-Prowse in the mid. Planning on playing 433 for now.Open ControlsI'll rate it then.
My opinion, Walker or Vudic downgrade to get ward prowse to Hernandez and your pretty solid.
I would actually get a soton defender to rotate with Collins.
I'm still in the 343 camp though.Open Controls
Just checked back on here.
Man, 4Vets didn't like my post about the Sopranos.
But in his own words, "do [I] give a sh1te". 😀
Wont mention the ending in case anyone else is still planning to watch it, but have to say, I was a bit surprised.
Anyway, enough of that. 4Vets, if your on, sorry if it appeared a bit twitter. Be far from the first person to post such a thing though. Thanks to those who defended me in my absence.Open Controls
who is currently rising tonight
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http://www.totalfpl.com/pricechanges
No one it seems.Open Controls
Updated Pass Completion Table
http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/public-stats-tables/view/3568/
Vert, JT, Mertesacker and Barkley continue to amaze.Open ControlsBen Davies starting to make me wonder too. Swansea defence seems very out of fashion at the moment and of course there is Europa, but could be a dark horse there.
Open ControlsFunny how we've written them off, I think they did really well over the fixture congested Xmas period. This time they seem to have more depth in their squad too.
Open ControlsYep, though that could work out against us rotation wise. They didn't get too many new faces in defence though did they? Am I right in thinking it was only the CB Amat? Wondering which of Davies and Chico would be a better choice, attacking wise Davies I think though I reckon they're about as nailed on (ie. very).
Open ControlsIt's tricky isn't it. There's Amat at CB and Taylor's returned at LB (although he's injured). Think one of their new DM signings can play CB too.
Williams at 0.1 lesser is an option too. But probably Davies for the extra attacking potential.Open ControlsYeah feeling Davies is making the spot his own. At 5.0 I think he could easily become a bandwagon. Scored in open play more than once I think, really gets up the pitch. Martinez's defence will determine whether Coleman is a better option.
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Considering Barkley is playing much higher up the field he has been very impressive. Its much tougher to have a high pass completion when you're amongst opposition defenders and midfielders.
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Am on a wildcard, and am looking for attacking prospects.
A) Who will you pick out of Shaw/Clyne/Fonte?
B) I've got Collins and he rose(finally!) to 4.6. Is it a bad idea to switch him now to Wilson(Stoke)?Open Controls
A) I don't think the dust has settled on Shaw/Clyne, at least as far as I know.
B) it would be pointless. You need him to rise by .2m before you get to profit the .1m, so keep him until the very last minute.Open ControlsThanks for the feedback!
A) Am on wildcard now, so have to make a choice if I want one of them?
B) I don't think Collins will rise again anytime soon. Will hold on till end of this gw though. Do you think Wilson is a better choice in the long term?Open Controls
A) Shaw is probably the better long term prospect.
B) If you sell him you lose the profit as a transfer fee. You'll get no more than you paid for him, so if you find a 4.5 DEF that you feel is better than Collins, go for it.Open ControlsThanks for the feedback! 🙂
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A) I would go Clyne. He is the better player long term for me and is fit again.
B) keep Collins. Wilson might be oop, but as DM. When do DMs do anything attack wise? He was put there as Palacois got injured in warm up week 1. Initially was a sub. So on full fit side, he might not be nailed on.Open ControlsThanks for the feedback! 🙂
Especially the info on Wilson.Open Controls
anyone got the link to the complete fixture difficulty sheet ??
Open ControlsMembers area
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As Liverpool attacking coverage, for those who have Coutinho and Sturridge, or just Sturridge, once Suarez comes back, what will you decide to do...he's scoring a lot for Uruguay at the moment..
i have faith in Sturridge...will people try to ditch him/upgrade or stick with him?Open ControlsSept. 258h is a long ways away. So hard to predict anything with our current info.
Open Controls*Sept. 28th (originally typed 25th, the cup game against Man U, not the PL game at the weekend)
Open ControlsIt's not too far away, I'm just thinking ahead. Seems mad to go with 3 Liverpool forward players, although that isn't stopping some people picking Ozil, Walcott, Giroud...I'm just wondering who is going to be getting the points for Liverpool this season. Can Suarez come close to getting as many goals as last season now he's not the main forward, does it matter when overall the attack will be so more improved. Will they end up all sharing points.
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Way too injury prone, unfortunately. BR admitted he was carrying an injury in the Man Utd game and may well miss the Swansea game as a result. Will swap for RVP with great reluctance and then get Suarez when he's up to full fitness.
Open ControlsI think he'll play vs Swansea, i think he's coped well with injury so far, and Rodgers might rest him when they play cup games if he can so he's available in the league. I remember last season the ones in front were wise enough to have suarez, rvp and tevez as their forward line.
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Best TV series evwe? For me it is difficult to beat the first seasons of 24
Open ControlsBreaking Bad won the FFS Champions League of TV two days back!
Sopranos came runners-upOpen Controls
A very British Coup, I Clavdivs, There are so many to choose from.
Open ControlsI think I only saw the first two. I don't know why, must have been working.
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Is there a single striker under 9m worth owning? Bearing in mind it means missing out on one of the biggies
Last season we had Lambert , Berbatov , Benteke, Lukaku etc
None of the above are at the price or level of last season ,Open ControlsGiroud
Open ControlsIt's either Elite or Uber cheap. Mid priced ones aren't firing.
Open ControlsI reckon Lukaku will prove to be the one at the price given a few weeks to bed in.
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Lukaku
Open ControlsHa! 🙂 Like your Ozil BG.
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Maybe Welbeck if Lukaku doesn't fire this season.
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Yeah there should be a few that establish themselves soon.
Here are some that may be those value strikers:
Lukaku, Gayle, Lambert, Berbatov, Odemwingie, Altidore, Crouch, Bent
Admittedly, it's a lot worse than in past seasons. The only ones I can really see making it onto our teams are Bent, Lukaku, Lambert atm.Open Controls
Since Kompany is out for a while shall i do Zab > Vidic? (On a WC)
Medium term, United fixtures look nice.
I would lose 0.2 from the sale of ZabOpen Controls
Can't sleep, so I've been digging into the FPL history.
Would anyone dare to guess the 4 most expensive defenders in the game (since the 2002/03 season)?Open ControlsBaines Vidic GJ Terry?
Open ControlsGot a link later?
Open ControlsTEN YEARS of history! I'm guessing defender prices could have been record breaking in the era of Mourinho et al. Baines, Terry, Vidic. Final one a Liverpool defender? Riise?
Open ControlsBaines
JT back in the day?
Sol Campbell?
Evra
2/4 I betOpen ControlsJT is correct, the rest - no.
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FPL was not around 2002/03?
Baines, A. Cole, Kompany, VertonghenOpen ControlsYes, it was. Actually, it was around even 2001/2002, but I can't find any prices of that season. Total points for some players are available though.
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Has to be defenders from the Invincibles
Cole
Campbell
Lauren
TerryOpen ControlsVidic at 8.0m?
Open ControlsNo
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Hint: the other two were not from Mu/Chelsea/Arsenal/Liverpool 🙂
Dig deeper!Open ControlsRobbie Elliot
O'Brien
Who were the other Newcastle defendersOpen ControlsCan't be Ian Harte, could it? 😯
Open ControlsNo and no. Another hint: both were priced very high in 2002/2003!
Open ControlsRobert Huth?
Jonathan Woodgate?Open Controls
Lesley King?
Open ControlsJT2005, Riise2003, Ian Harte2002, one more from 2002!
Open ControlsDanny Mills?
Open ControlsNo.
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Last attempts
Carr at Spurs?
Finnan from Fulham?Open ControlsNo and no. But very close!
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any Arsenal defender????
which team did Ian Harte play for then ?Open Controlssorry, didn't notice that you've mentioned about a non- arsenal, utd player above.
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Last try
Bunjevcevic? Perry?Open ControlsLeeds Kelly
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Lol, no. Elnino called the team!
Open ControlsFFS. Don't tell me its Brevett?
Open ControlsFulham kept enough CS? Struggling to imagine someone who would be in the 8+ zone there!!
Open ControlsI remember Finnan being one of the best players in the league in 2001ish hence guessed him. Just guessing off his clues 😆
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The other team 😉
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Correct answer for those who give up:
http://web.archive.org/web/20030524184530/http://fantasy.premierleague.com/M/elementhist.mc?id=444
😆Open ControlsDarn, I had him in mind but thought he was Pool in 2002
Open ControlsWOW. One great goalscoring season at Spurs I take it?
Open ControlsLove your use of the web archive to dig through old FPL. I thought it was lost forever. This changes everything.
Open Controls- Open Controls
Always wanted to see this. Thierry Henry, 271 points.
Open ControlsSlightly surprised he went from 24 G 23 A to 30 G 6 A. Rule change?
Open ControlsNah.
Both seasons: 'An assist is defined as follows - a player making a cross, pass or header which is directly responsible for creating a goal'Open ControlsNice, change of role maybe! Fascinating trip down memory lane.
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Shifted from winger to striker mid-season I think
Open ControlsThere was basically nothing he could not do...
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Here's some lists: http://web.archive.org/web/*/http://fantasy.premierleague.com/playerlist1.html
Interesting stuff.Open ControlsIt's all coming out now. Brad Friedel top GK on 187 points.
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Whats the thoughts on Bony when Swans fixtures start to ease?
I think against lesser opposition, they will go 2 in attack with michu behind him. Should hope so anyway given much they paid.
Will be be worth a punt at his now lower price or will the Europa render him still one to avoid?Open ControlsWhen their fixtures ease up I think he could be a great prospect. Probably still best to monitor for now though.
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Morrison a wise punt for the gw away at Southampton? It's him in my team or Whittaker against Tottenham...
I'm imagining a Morrison late winner debut league goal...eventually...Open ControlsAsking for trouble.
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This is an excellent film to watch at 3:49 am in the morning
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3CsLc-9Ez2wOpen ControlsI'm sure I saw it, but have it to watch now anyway. Thanks BR.
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Who score more points this season Vertongen or Ben arfa?
Open ControlsVert
Open ControlsI know , the more i play around with the wildcard the more im drawn to 5 2 3
Five quality defenders
Walcott plus one of the four budget mids
Benteke RVP GiroudOpen ControlsI just don't rate HBA FPL wise. Think you will fail with 523.
Open ControlsThis is exactly the foreboding forest path that I am wandering down
Open ControlsPeople keep saying it will fail , but do they have any valid reasons to think so? , there will be a steady stream of bonus points , also premium defenders do also contribute attacking wise on occasion.
Captaincy not an issue with three premium strikers plus Walcott. ,Open Controls
Currently own Vidic and Ivanovic as my premium defenders
Should I think about ivanovic>Cole or GJ instead?Open Controls
Based on Demi's post, that is exactly what I am wondering too.
Open Controls
meanwhile in Portugal...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0J55EGFLglQOpen ControlsAccording to the seasons projections the premium defenders are predicted to score between 120-130 points per season
Michu , Cazorla and Courtino are also projected to score around 130 points for the season.
So tell me again why 5 2 3 is doomed to fail?Open ControlsProjections are just that. Coutinhos is priced at 9 for a reason.
Open ControlsBecause FPL is about picking players at the right time.
You pick Ben Arfa for his good next 4 fixtures then ditch for someone like Michu who has the next run of fixtures.
The big midfielders will likely score their big points in spurts and you'll want to be there for them. With the defenders it's a slow and steady approach.
Also, the way FPL is setup, means that you are best going with a cheaper-ish defense and a stronger midfield.
Walcott + Dawson
VS
Mirallas + BainesOpen ControlsGreat answer.
Open ControlsThe spurt bit is very true.
But predicting when to get each is tough.
Defenders are sort of easier by comparison
Not risking it myself but I can see the attraction in 523
My big issue though is, will 4.5-5.0 defenders not also score better this year?
If so, do we really need the pricey ones?Open ControlsThey will too, albeit with less of a bonus boost due to fewer CS. I'm considering. It's a half step instead of going full 4-3-3 or 5-2-3.
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I dont understand what you mean
:The way FPL is set up"
Last year a cheap defence was good , under the old bonus point system . I cant deny that , but this year its set up differentlyOpen ControlsA few bonus points aren't going to change that.
The setup of FPL is that you can't get very viable options in midfield at the 5.0 - 5.5 range which you can in defense.
Basically it's that to get a good starter for a team in defense you can, on average for the league, pay around 5.0m.
In midfield, it's around 7.0m. You could get the DMs for cheaper, but you don't want those...
Up front, it's around 8.0m.
The game itself prices the players in this bracket system regardless of value. If you're looking for raw value, the defenders will win every time, but that's not where the total points are. It's a balance of finding the ones who are truly standout in each category (Adam, Coleman, Lambert etc)Open ControlsLast season there was Michu at 6.5 Fellani 7.5 Cort etc in the mid priced bracket. This season its slim
Baines and Evra should be able to smash any of the similarly priced mids this seasonOpen Controls
And those defenders cost 3m odd less.
This theory is starting to interest me.
Just, its a big gamble.
I played 523 my first season.
I led a 20 person ML week 1-37 and lost by 1pt week 38.
Rank was about 48k from that.
But that was 5 years ago or something.Open Controls
Clean sheets were running rampant 5 years ago. Everton, United and Chelsea IIRC. Possibly LFC as well. Perhaps I'm misremembering but defense seems more reliable (so far) this season, compared with the last 2 seasons.
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Those 3 will easily score more than 130 points. That's 3 and a bit PPG, which they practically do just for appearing.
Open ControlsI don't think you can compare midfielders with defenders. As cliche as it may sound, it's like comparing apples to oranges.
Open Controlsbut those 3 are very likely to go over that 130 points mark, don't you think ?!
Cazorla scored 205 last year and Michu 190Open ControlsIt is interesting that the projections have the mids scoring so low.
However they did give it a major tweak a few days ago. They have obviously taken into account the new bonus point system, to reflect they will recieve quite a few less bonus pointsOpen ControlsHw many bonus points did caz get?
Open Controls19
Open Controlshis total for this season will be down due to Ozil turning up
Open ControlsOzil could tee him up too.
12 goals, 13 assists.Open ControlsMaybe I'm missing something, but wouldn't you say his total for this season will be down to... the BPS shakeup?
if you put 2013-14 bps scoring on his 2012-13 stats, what would be the result?Open Controlshttp://public.tableausoftware.com/views/OptaBonusPointSystemEffect/OptaBonusPointSystemEffect
Without looking at Ozil, a slight increase for Caz.Open Controls
Pretty sure the projections are from here on out, right? Otherwise Ozil is way ahead of the pack of mids. Also, they are quite conservative with RMT/projections in general when you look at ppg. Elite players in this system will get 140pts for 35 games or 4 ppg. In reality the best get 6 or 7 ppg.
Open ControlsLooking at the forwards the projections do seem very conservative , too a ridiculous degree.
Benteke 12 goals for the season???Open ControlsHave a look at the minutes predicted. That is a big factor in all the projections.
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Was anybody here playing FPL in 03/04? (Started in 09/10 in earnest, although did enter a dead team in 07/08)
Here is the guy who won it that year, and his GW38 team...
http://web.archive.org/web/20040604142111/http://fantasy.premierleague.com/M/eventhist.mc?id=1105029&event=38Open ControlsOkay just to put things into perspective...
Considering premium players get 10-20 bonus every season....
How much extra bonus are premium defenders going to get this season over the last?
How much less bonus are premium midfielders going to get this season over the last?
Is the answer to either more than 10?
Has the earth stopped spinning? Do you really believe in life outside Earth?Open Controlsscroll up to the link that TorresMagic posted in reply to my post... that may give you part of your answer. I can't keep from staring at it.
Another part of the answer is unknown: how many clean sheets will your defenders continue to keep?
The earth hasn't stopped spinning, we'd feel that. I don't have any reason to believe in extraterrestrial life... FPL is more fun to worry over, IMO.Open Controls
I have a Nate vs Forca video.
Please fill the rest of this page, so it gets top-of the -page status 😉Open ControlsClose to 30.
Open Controls
http://goanimate.com/myvideos
Nate Vs Forca
Enjoy!Open ControlsMight need another link.
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Oooo I can't wait to see this, but link doesn't work!
Open ControlsShite! what happens when you click on it?
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Formation theory. Right now, for the first time in a long time, we're actually starting to consider more than 3 at the back. With the upturn in clean sheets and subsequent bonus points to go with that, defenders are earning more than they usually do.
So here's some formation banter and theoretical teams. I'm not a wildcard currently, so these are just teams that I've forged on the run.
4-3-3
Mignolet, Harper
Vidic, Zabaleta, Coleman, Walker, Turner
Walcott, Ben Arfa, Brady, Redmond, Ward-Prowse
Van Persie, Sturridge, Giroud
This formation wholeheartedly embraces the new changes and is of the belief that the goals are going to continue to be few and far between. Heavy in defense, shallow in midfield, big up top for captaincy. The glaring hole is in midfield, but isn't so bad when you realize you're basically shifting that defense conundrum every week on which 2 to bench into midfield.
If clean sheets and bonus points to defenders keep up, it'll just be a matter of switching to the defenders with the best fixtures. Walker > Sakho for example or Zabaleta > Luiz. The biggest worry for this method is flexibility. You will be pretty stuck if the goals start flooding in and Ozil runs riot or if Coutinho and Hazard suddenly start producing at their premium standard.
5-2-3
Mignolet, Harper
Vidic, Zab, Coleman, Walker, Luiz
Walcott, Kim, Redmond, Brady, Ward Prowse
Sturridge, RVP, Giroud
Same concept as the last one but even more extreme. Now in place of a Ben Arfa priced player, you've dropped him to Kim and used the funds on Luiz. Now you just have to pick one of Kim, Redmond, Brady and Ward Prowse a week.
Honestly, I don't think this is viable at all for a few reasons. Those 5 defenders you played will play each other pretty soon. Unless the game ends 0-0 you're down to at most 2 points for one of your players there. Still worth considering though, and if you guess right and double down like:
Mignolet, Harper
Sakho, Zabaleta, Kompany, Coleman, Walker
You could do fantastically well and basically shift your defenders like you would your midfielders based on form. I'd love to give this a go, but don't have it in me. Maybe next season.Open ControlsShameless attempt at a green off the back of my last post 😀
Open ControlsYou have to remember that some of the premium defenders are actually not that expensive.
You are buying into the team not the player
Nasty Mertzacker Sakho etc Can have a 5 2 3 with a better mid than the ones in your exampleOpen ControlsTrue but I haven't splurged too bad. If you're buying into a team you could do:
Coleman, Dawson, Ferdinand, Nastasic, Sakho
But the ones I've picked i.e. Vidic, Walker, Zab are arguably worth the 0.5m more each for the extra bonus and attacking potential. The way I see it, you're replacing premium mids with premium defenders so might as well pick the best ones.Open ControlsYour obsessed with Dawson , he a gonna
One factor many didnt take into account with the new system is the sheer number of points being dished out to defenders.
If it was 3 2 1 it wouldnt be so bad , but we are seeing far more than six bonus points given out in the clean sheet games . Far more than in the scoring games.
Have we had a 3 3 3 3 yet in the same game? must be close to itOpen ControlsYep we have. 4 three point bonuses have happened.
Also, I'm far from obsessed with Dawson. I know that he might well be dropped, but until he does, he's value at 5.0 playing CB for Spurs. If he's still at CB in 3 weeks time, would you still be against getting him?Open Controls
I have been reading your posts about this subject and hadn't really commented too much on the general theory you are pushing back against, but keep it up. Something about this last comment crystallized for me where you might be headed: that midpriced defs who continue to score massively will force us to consider a rethink on team shape. Not to change it, but to acknowledge its viability
Remember last season and the big 352 v 343 debate? IMO, the only reason it existed (though it made it essential to debate) was that Fellaini and Michu were so OOP and so cheap for their points production that they gave us an extra 4-5m to use. Seamus in particular so far this season is that same guy. How many times have people posted that Seamus is Baines at 2.5m cheaper? Not sure who else might emerge, but that might be where the Michu and Fellaini windfalls exist this year.
I don't care about the BPS and the elite mids nearly as much as I care about finding this years Michu/Fellaini, regardless of position.
Now, I have to go take a hit to get in Seamus.Open ControlsI think thats why so many are latching onto Hernandez , they desperate to find the new Michu , even though he probably dosent exist
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