The Technical Area – Can and Liverpool’s 3-4-2-1

Last night’s 3-2 win over Spurs extended Liverpool’s unbeaten league run to nine matches as the Reds moved to just three points off the top four in the Premier League. Fundamental to that form has been the shift to a 3-4-2-1 formation, which has transformed their season after a patchy first few months of the post-Luis Suarez era.

Tellingly, despite Daniel Sturridge’s two assists on his first start since August and Mario Balotelli grabbing his first league goal of the season, it was Emre Can’s display that garnered most of the plaudits as the Liverpool fans took to social media to praise the young German’s performance.

With this in mind, we’ve turned to our members section to assess Liverpool’s displays since Can was installed as a first-team regular against Swansea back in Gameweek 19.

Over the last few days, we’ve added a Team Comparison Tool feature, which has unlocked the ability to assess each side’s displays in more depth. We’ll be using this new tool to create a number of Members only articles in the coming weeks but for today, we delve into the data to assess the Merseysiders’ stats before and after Can’s move into the first XI and also compare them to last season, when the “SAS” partnership of Suarez and Sturridge wreaked havoc on top-flight backlines.

Attacking Statistics

2013/14 versus Gameweek 19-25

As the data immediately highlights, Liverpool’s prospects in the final third have improved over the last seven league outings when compared to the previous campaign. Rodgers’ side have fired 18 attempts per match, up on their 17.1 average from 2013/14, whilst their shots from open play (from 12.1 to 14.1), percentage of shots from open play (70.8% to 78.6%) and attempts inside the box (10.1 to 10.9) are all on the rise.

The Reds have scored 14 goals over those seven fixtures – an average of two strikes per match – though that still trails last year’s 2.65, where they netted 101 goals over the season. This mainly comes down to the fact that they were still a little more clinical back then – converting 15.5% of their chances, compared to 11.1% from Gameweek 19 onwards, with their superior number of big chances (2.9 to 2.3) a major factor here.

Since returning from injury in Gameweek 23 at West Ham, Sturridge has already served up a goal and two assists in just 131 minutes pitch time. When compared to last year, when he found the net on 22 occasions, the data is again very promising and suggests that Rodgers has found a solution to Suarez’ departure. Granted, three matches is s small sample size but Sturridge has, nonetheless, improved his frequency of shots (from 23.8 minutes to 15.4), efforts in the box (2.2 to 2.7) and key passes (81.4 to 46.3). The issue, so far, has been a lack of clinical finishing – Sturridge has converted 11.1% of his chances within the 3-4-2-1 system compared to 22.2% alongside Suarez last season.

Gameweek 1-18 versus Gameweek 19-25

When analysed against the previous 18 Gameweeks, when they scored just 22 times, the turnaround in form is marked. Essentially, Rodgers’ men have improved right across the board here. Their goal attempts (from 15.1 to 18), shots from open play (11.2 to 14.1) and efforts inside the (7.8 to 10.9) have leapt up, whilst their average of 2.3 big chances is more than double their previous tally of 1.1.

The frequency of big chances, in particular, catches the eye. Liverpool had managed one every 85.9 minutes from Gameweek 1-18 but this has moved to 41.4 in the subsequent seven and with greater quality opportunities, their shot accuracy (from 29.8% to 36.5%) and goal conversion (8.1% to 11.1%) has benefitted considerably.

Bearing in mind he was fielded as the lone striker in the new system, it’s no surprise that Sterling’s touches in the box (from 5.4 to 6.6) rose over the two periods. The youngster’s eye for goal saw him fire an effort every 24.4 minutes prior to missing out through injury last night – again, up from his average of 37.9 minutes over the opening 18 Gameweeks. Like Sturridge, Sterling’s issue has been a lack of clinical shooting – he’s netted just 5.6% of his shots in the 3-4-2-1, compared to 9.3% beforehand.

Defensive Statistics

2013/14 versus Gameweek 19-25

The defensive data highlights a vast improvement in resilience compared to the previous campaign, when a defence that shipped 50 goals ultimately proved Liverpool’s undoing.

Rodgers’ side have conceded just five times in the last seven matches with Can installed in the back-three and prior to last night’s five-goal thriller, had chalked up four successive clean sheets. The number of shots conceded (12.7 to 10.7) and efforts inside the box (6.7 to 5.6) have dropped, as have the average number of attempts from open play – down from 9.4 to 6.4 with the German on board.

Most significantly of all, though, is that Liverpool only allowed their opponents a big chance every 165.8 minutes, which is a huge step up from the porous 76.6 in 2013/14. The numbers do, however, highlight a recent weakness – Rodgers’ side have become a little more susceptible to set-pieces and conceded 4.3 attempts per outing, compared to last year’s 2.9.

Gameweek 1-18 versus Gameweek 19-25

Encouragingly for Rodgers, the recent stats again favour Can’s installation to the XI. Liverpool had shipped 24 goals in the first 18 Gameweeks and managed just five clean sheets and the stats certainly highlight an improvement.
The Reds have allowed their opponents less efforts (down from 11.5 to 10.7), shots inside the box (6.1 to 5.6) and attempts from open play (7.9 to 6.4), though it once again flags the issue with set-plays, as they previously allowed their opponents 3.1 per match compared to the recent average of 4.3.

Again, the major improvement has been the lack of big chances conceded. Rodgers’ side averaged 1.7 against from Gameweek 1-18 but that’s plummeted to just 0.6 with Can in defence – from 55.4 minutes to a miserly 165.8.

As the two graphics highlight, Liverpool have stopped their opponents creating a significant number of chances from out wide in recent weeks. Over Gameweek 12-18 (left), the opposition gained six assists (in green) from in and around the penalty box but since Can’s installation (right), this has dropped down to two, with the wing-backs and new, improved back-three stopping delivery from the flanks with greater regularity.

After months of tinkering, then, Rodgers seems to have found the correct system and, crucially, personnel to bring Liverpool into contention as Fantasy prospects once again. Granted, it wasn’t too difficult to improve upon last season’s defensive displays, but not only has the new system added a steely resilience, it’s brought about a balance that has helped rediscover the swashbuckling displays of 2013/14 and allowed the Merseysiders to finally emerge from the shadow of a certain Uruguayan.

*The Technical Area is put together using the statistics and maps available in our members area. For access to such data and tools on every player, team and match of the 2014/15 season, and for exclusive members articles like this, click here for details.