Is Lukaku Really a Fantasy Football Troll?

Over the last few seasons of Fantasy Premier League I have been a regular owner of Romelu Lukaku and have generally been a very satisfied customer. He is an incredible young footballer and his Fantasy performance is already close to elite level.

But it seems that many FPL managers do not share my enthusiasm, and frequently label the giant Belgian as a ‘troll’ due to the suggestion that he too often fails to deliver expected attacking returns against minnows.

I have always felt that this was unfair. In general, I believe he scores when I expect him to, he blanks when I expect him to and he delivers Fantasy points at a level that matches or slightly exceeds his price.

I have long wondered why he has such a bad reputation and whether there was anything statistical to back this up or if it was just an emotional reaction on the part of some frustrated owners when, occasionally, he blanks against a lowly side.

So I set out to see if I could clarify once and for all if Lukaku is indeed a troll by comparing some key data points against other prominent  forwards. I chose to compare him with Sergio Aguero, Wayne Rooney, Harry Kane and Diego Costa- four of the most relevant forwards in the game over the last five years and players that in the most part are still competing with the Belgian for spots in our teams.

My sample includes Lukaku’s Premier League career from 2012/13 onwards, Aguero’s from 2011/12 onwards, Costa and Kane from 2014/15 onwards and Rooney from 2011/12-2015/16. I have included this season’s data up to Gameweek 22.

Data Analysis

 To start with, here is the basic data for the five players included in the sample:

Given the variance in minutes played between the players, these numbers aren’t greatly useful on their own so I chose to look at individual statistics based on time played rather than overall numbers.

Unsurprisingly, Sergio Aguero is a runaway leader here and Lukaku trails in last place. Not a great start for the Belgian.

Wayne Rooney leads the way here possibly due to a couple of seasons playing in a deeper role and a less ruthless playing style. Lukaku is more than competitive in this metric which goes some way to dispel the common accusation that he is a selfish player.

While Lukaku again trails the pack, he is reasonably close to his competitors when it comes to how many points he scores while on the pitch. If we take into account his cheaper price, these numbers are more than acceptable.

The Belgian comfortably leads the way in this one. While yellow card count may not seem the most relevant of data points, the reduced risk of red cards, suspensions and lost bonus points caused by regular bookings can be extremely problematic and Lukaku certainly does not troll us in this department.

Again, Lukaku trails the pack here but his 2012/13 season at West Brom does not help his cause, having made 15 of his 35 appearances as a substitute. Overall, 14% of his Premier League appearances have been as a sub, which puts him behind Kane (6%), Costa (4%), Rooney (6.6%) and Aguero (12%) and brings his PPG down a fair bit.

So far things don’t look too great for Lukaku but it’s important that we put all this data in context. Firstly Lukaku (23) is significantly younger than Aguero (28), Costa (28) and Rooney (31) and only a couple of months older than Kane. The fact that he can even come close to these guys at his age is impressive. Harry Kane, by the way, is a complete freak.

Secondly, he has played for weaker teams in the Baggies and the Toffees,  than his opponents in the sample. Here we can look at the average position each of these players’ teams has finished in the league while they have been playing for them (not including 2016/17 data):

We can also look at the average amount of goals each team has scored while the five players in our sample have played for them (not including 2016/17 data):

Clearly Lukaku is at a big disadvantage playing for West Brom and Everton in the past five years and this should be taken into account when looking at his overall statistics.

Now we can look at what % of his team’s goals each player has scored over the full sample including the current season.

This is impressive for Lukaku. He has clearly been playing for less potent teams and been shouldering the goalscoring burden quite significantly.

Now we can turn our attention to what I will call ‘Troll Metrics’, data points that we can relate specifically to so-called trolling. The first thing we will look at his how often these guys actually get onto the pitch. The following table looks at what percentage of pitch time each of these guys has played compared to what would have been possible. For example, Lukaku has played 12471 minutes out of a possible 15660 since 2012 which equates to 80%.

This is very positive for the Belgian. There is nothing worse than players who are constantly benched, rotated or injured. Having played an impressive 80% of all available minutes in the last 4 and a half seasons, Lukaku is a long way from being a selection headache, especially when compared to other notorious ‘trolls’ such as Theo Walcott, Raheem Sterling and Kevin Mirallas. When we combine his durability with his excellent yellow card record, we have a very reliable player who is unlikely to cause us Saturday afternoon heartbreak.

Probably the most common accusation aimed at Lukaku is that he never performs when expected to. According to folklore, you will bring him in for a run of great fixtures and he will go on a blanking spree but as soon as you transfer him out he will haul in some unlikely fixture.

The first thing we can examine here is how often he scores in home games as we will generally expect more goals in home fixtures than away games.

Here we see that the only player who could be accused of trolling is Harry Kane. Lukaku’s 54% of goals scored at home is perfectly standard.

We can also look at how many of his goalscoring returns occur in home games.

Once again, Lukaku’s numbers are totally standard and it is only Kane who is proving more difficult to predict.

Finally, and perhaps most interestingly, we can take a look at who Lukaku tends to score against and how this compares to the other premium forwards. For each season played, I have broken down the teams in the league into 3 categories; those who finished the season in the top 5, those who finished in the bottom 5 and those who finished in the middle 10 positions (For 2016/17 I have gone with the current league positions as of 22^nd Jan). I have then calculated the % of goals that each player scored against each group of teams. If Lukaku is to live up to expectations as a master troll, we should see a smaller % of his goals scored against the weaker teams than the other 4 strikers in our sample. We might also expect a slightly higher % of goals scored against top 5 sides.

Given the sample size of approximately 550 games of football, these numbers are remarkably similar across the board. And as regards Lukaku being an unpredictable goalscorer, there is nothing to back it up.

Conclusion

Do not believe the hype. There is nothing to suggest that Romelu Lukaku will troll you more than any other premium forward. As long as you have realistic expectations and don’t expect double digit FPL points hauls every week, the Belgian is a relatively stress-free player to own. He scores predictably and consistently, gets very few bookings, has never been sent off and misses very few games through injury or rotation. He also provides a decent amount of assists and bonus points, which helps provide consistent and stable returns.

When we take into account his age, experience and the fact that he has played most of his Premier League football for two teams that are not even close to challenging for the title, his exploits over the last five years have been extremely impressive. While his gross statistics maybe fall slightly behind the other players listed, when we account for the fact that he is usually significantly cheaper than the other four players (Harry Kane’s freak debut season apart) he appears to represent excellent value when the fixtures are kind.

My own personal theory as to why he is considered such a troll is simply that people expect too much from Lukaku, especially when giving him the armband. Captaining a sub-10m player in a mid-table side is a punt no matter the opposition.

If you put the captaincy on Big Rom and he didn’t perform then it was a gamble that didn’t pay off. It doesn’t mean you got trolled.

So lay off the big man, let him do his thing and don’t expect miracles. There are far bigger headaches in this game than Romelu Lukaku.