From ‘Can’t Hit A Barn Door’ To Scoring Sensation

Each year there are a number of attacking players who, despite getting ample opportunity, fail to find the back of the net.

This article aims to look at each season’s most profligate players to see if they finally saw an upturn in their fortunes the following campaign.

The inspiration for this came from a community article by Prokoptas earlier this month, which looked at the plexiglas principle, whereby wasteful players are expected to improve the following year and in turn prolific strikers may struggle to replicate their scoring feats. Giggs Boson then added to this by showcasing through Members tables* those specific players from 2016/17 who really should have scored more. If the plexiglas theory holds true, many of those on his list are expected to improve markedly this season.

For this research I will be going in search of players who had a high number of shots but a low goal scoring count over one season and then see how they did the next campaign. To accompany this research I have created this table for Members*, which can be filtered for each of the last six seasons.

*Details about accessing membership for the season, at the pre-season price of just £12.50, can be found here.

2011/12

The table identifies six players who meet the criteria. Didier Drogba moves to China the following season, but looking at the remaining:

1. Adel Taarabt – Next season the QPR man increases his output substantially, but is still nowhere near scoring sensation status. His minutes per Goal (MpG) halve from 1008 to 449, but sadly conversion remains at 5.1, and output a mere five goals.
2. Hugo Rodallega – Minimal improvement for the Wigan striker, and output at just three goals.
3. Andy Carroll – Similar to Taarabt. He doubles his output, but this still leaves him with just seven goals and MpG remains at 280.
4. Gareth Bale – The Tottenham star was a huge success story. He more than doubles his output from nine to 21 goals, and improves his MpG to just 139 from 357.
5. Luis Suarez – Another big success story. The Liverpool striker’s  goals go up from 11 to 23, and MpG down from 232 to 129.

Summary

With the exception of Rodellega all doubled their output meaning the plexiglas theory may have legs, even though some still only registered meagre returns.

2012/13

There were 10 players to look at this season, including three repeats from last season.

1. Hugo Rodallega – the Wigan man is back again, with the stats indicating that he should still be doing better. Sadly though in  2013/14 he proved he in fact couldn’t do any better. In fact his statistics drop across the board.
2. Adel Taarabt – our second familiar face. The QPR midfielder features far less frequently in 2013/14, and fails to score even one goal. Not much use to us here.
3. Gylfi Sigurdsson – This was back in his unhappy Tottenham days. He struggled to score in 2012/13, but did marginally better the following season, upping his goal output from three to five and lifting his goal conversion from  5.7 to 13.5. A small success.
4. Jay Rodriguez – The then Southampton forward proved to be a  huge success for the theory. He manages to go from six goals from 89 attempts in 2012 to 15 goals from 101 attempts in 2013. Also his MpG is down to 171. This Saint, who joined West Brom this summer, is a big success for the theory.
5. Nikica Jelavic, Kevin Mirallas and Andy Carroll were all at 8.x% conversion rates in 2012/13 but failed to kick on. Mirallas is the only one of the three to improve, and it’s not a substantial upturn. Jelavic notably missed 90% of his ‘big chances’ in 2012, but sadly fares little better in 2013.
6. Victor Anichebe, Peter Odemwingie and Clint Dempsey also feature in this table, but cannot be called successes. Odemwingie does improve his conversion rate, but is taking fewer shots in 2012 so his output remains almost static.

Summary

Not a successful campaign for the theory, with Rodriguez the only standard barer for those who believe wasteful strikers can become scoring legends between seasons.

2013/14

There were fewer players to analyse in 2013/14. Nathan Redmond features with the lowest goal conversion we see in this exercise (1.5%) but he gets relegated with Norwich so we can’t see his stats for 14/15. Obviously we know he doesn’t turn out to set the world alight in 16/17, though his conversion does increase.

1. Andros Townsend – No surprise to see a man known for wild longshots on the list. Simlarly no surprise to find he betters his conversion rate of 1.8%, scoring with 12.5% of his attempts in 14/15. Sadly it’s from only 16 attempts, so just two goals. An improvement, but not one that will excite Fantasy managers.
2. Philippe Coutinho – His first appearance in this table, and he is not a success story. He follows his five goal season with the same return the following year. His underlying statistics remain consistent too.
3. Nikica Jelavic – back, this time with Hull. He misses 81% of his big chances, and scores just 5.7% of all his attempts but the subsequent season brings more joy. He doubles his goal tally from four to eight and posts a respectable 14% conversion rate.
4. Saido Berahino – We are on a roll with the then West Brom striker proving another success story, going from five goals to 14, and increasing his conversion rate to 16.3%.
5. Jason Puncheon – Not much to see with the Palace midfielder, who followed up his 2013/14 tally of seven goals with just six the following campaign and taking 12 fewer shots.
6. Kevin Mirallas – back for the second time, the Everton winger  suffered from restricted minutes in 14/15 so although his goals go down from 8 to 7, it’s from substantially fewer chances. This means he saw an increase in his goal conversion and proved to be a minor success for the theory.

Summary

This group are a mixed bag, with Berahino proving a real success, while long shot merchants like Townsend and Coutinho continued to show why striking from distance rarely delivers returns.

2014/15

1. Coutinho – The Liverpool midfield maestro is back and this time he proves to be a better poster boy for the plexiglas theory.  His goals increase from five to eight, and his conversion rate goes from 4.9 to 7.2. This ensures his MgG drops dramatically from 559 to 250.
2. Riyad Mahrez – The Leicester winger is another huge success for the theory. From four goals in 2014/15, Mahrez goes on to score 17 goals in 2015/16. His conversion leaps from 6.3 to 19.8 and MpG plummets from 520 to 180. If we could find a Mahrez every season, we’d be laughing.
3. Danny Welbeck – Another decent success, but in the mould of “fewer minutes = better conversion”. He scored four goals in both 2014/15 and 2015/16, but from 63 attempts in the former and just 20 in the latter.
4. Romelu Lukaku – A huge target in this year’s FPL season, he was seen by the table to be underperforming in 2014/15. His 10 goals came at a 9.5% conversion, and indeed he went on to improve significantly in 2015/16; scoring 18 goals from only a handful more chances. Another success story in a season of success stories.

Summary

Four players fit the bill as those who could have scored more. All delivered an upturn in goal output with Mahrez in particular showing one of the best ever improvements in Premier League history. A good year for plexiglas theory fans.

2015/16

1. Christian Eriksen – The Spurs midfielder is another player who favours shots from distance. While he does improve his output from 2015/16 to 16/17 it is not by much, from six goals to eight and a conversion boost from 6% to 9.5%. His game is based around more than goals, with assists his calling card. But is he ripe for goal scoring improvement or has this set piece specialist peaked as a shot taker?
2. Wilfried Bony – He only got given 13 starts at City in 2015/16 but would have hoped to do better than his four goals. Sadly for Wilfried, he gets even less of a chance in 2016/17, with just nine starts. Limited to just two goals, at least his conversion rate improved to 9.5%. It is hard to call these two seasons a success, but with a better conversion rate I’m loathe to call it a failure.
3. Philippe Coutinho – Third time’s the charm for the Brazilian. This time he goes from eight goals in 2015/16 to 13 in 16/17. That’s more like it, as his MpG drops to 173, and his conversion rate comes in at 12.3%.
4. Yannick Bolasie – Injury cut short his subsequent season, this time at Everton. But the signs were not good before that. He managed just one goal from 27 attempts, far less effective than his previous of five from 57 attempts.

Summary

Coutinho proves that patience is a virtue and his recurrent appearance in this analysis finally saw a breakthrough last season. Could Eriksen follow him and also show a substantial upturn in scoring output? Elsewhere injury and lack of game time make the other players here hard to assess in terms of plexiglass theory efficiency.

Potential improvers in 2017/18

Here a list of players from the 2016/17 season who, according to the plexiglas theory, could be in for a strong follow up campaign.

1. Paul Pogba: The Manchester United midfielder managed just five goals last season from 92 attempts, a rate that seems very likely to improve, especially if a defensive midfielder joins to ensure he takes a more advanced role.
2. Christian Eriksen: This is his second time in the chart. That statistics indicate he should be scoring more than eight goals from his 133 attempts. W
3. Kevin Mirallas: Third time’s the charm for Kevin? If he can get minutes, he ought to go better than four goals from 62 attempts. Everton are a work in progress though, so personally I’d leave him alone for now.
4. Gylfi Sigurdsson: Similar to Mirallas, I’d leave alone for now as it is unclear whether he will still be a Swansea player, or will move to Everton. His nine goals last season was good but this table suggests he should be scoring more. A perennial favourite, and certainly one to watch again, whichever club he lines up with.
5. Wayne Rooney: He managed just 52 attempts last season, so only just scrapes through the filter. An interesting possibility for sure, and well priced if he can return to his former glories.

Conclusion

Between 2011 and 2015/16 the table generated 28 players that should have  improved and of these 20 of  did have better goal conversion rates in the subsequent season. This 71% success rate seems better than chance. So that’s very positive for the plexiglas theory.

Not all of the increases were as substantial, as that of Riyad Mahrez, but with some refinement I do think this has a good chance of finding some gems. With that in mind it is worth monitoring those I’ve earmarked above from last season, who could end up as scoring sensations or at the very least improve their goal conversion rate.