FPL Player List Analysis – Mid Price Forwards

Having already assessed the goalkeepers, budget defenders, mid-price defenders, premium defenders, budget midfielders, mid-price midfielders,
premium midfielders and budget forwards, we now take time to scan the mid-price forwards in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

Priced between 6.5 and 8.0, we’re seeking out guaranteed starters with the potential to offer value for our three-man frontlines. Immunity to rotation and the possibility of spot-kicks are also factors worth considering here, with a host of valid options jostling for out attention.

Up against just one of last season’s top nine in the first 11 Gameweeks Southampton’s opening batch of fixtures certainly look very conducive to attacking returns.

The race between Manolo Gabbiadini (7.0) and Charlie Austin (6.5) for the lone striker role could ultimately have a say in getting our seasons off to a strong start. At present, it’s the Italian who has the momentum, having scored in each of his last two starts.

As witnessed last season, Gabbiadini struggles for consistency, though – after scoring six times in his first four outings in all competitions last season, he failed to find the net again.

Yet with Austin still in the mix, some may instead turn to the likes of Dusan Tadic, Nathan Redmond (both 6.5) or even James Ward-Prowse in midfield as the Saints look to get off to a winning start under new manager Mauricio Pellegrino.

West Ham’s new arrival Javier Hernandez has the CV to emerge as one of the main sources of value among the mid-price frontman.

FPL managers certainly concur – over 20% have acquired the Mexican off the back of 28 goals in the last two seasons for Bayer Leverkusen.

However, Hernandez has yet to start a summer fixture as he builds up his fitness, while it’s fair to say that the opening schedule is also hardly in his favour – Slaven Bilic’s side have four away matches and a home clash with Spurs in the first six Gameweeks.

Having plied his trade for Manchester United in the past, the upside is that Hernandez won’t need much time to settle and adjust to his new surrounds.

Steal penalties off Mark Noble and his Fantasy stock will surely rise, yet there is no shortage of mid-price midfield competition among the Hammers contingent when the fixtures take a turn for the better in Gameweek 7.

Penalty duties may ultimately dictate our assessment of Bournemouth pair Jermain Defoe and Josh King.

Defoe scored five of his 15 goals from the spot for Sunderland last season, whereas King was far less reliant – netting just two of his 16 strikes via this way.

Despite being reclassified as a striker in FPL, King’s numbers indicate that he shouldn’t be written off. He was far more clinical than his new strike partner in 2016/17, netting 23.9% of his attempts to Defoe’s 15.2%m.

Furthermore, the Norwegian scored 12 out of 16 big chances (75%) to the new arrival’s 10 converted out of 17 (or 58.8%) – all the more pertinent when you consider that only the top six produced more big chances than the Cherries’ 65 last season.

Defoe is the more popular of the pair by 13.1% to 4.8% and is expected to recover from a minor groin problem in time for the Gameweek 1 clash with West Brom.

Crystal Palace’s Christian Benteke will be looking to kick on from last season’s 15 goals under new manager Frank De Boer.

Yet the Belgian’s allure is somewhat diminished by two factors. With the option of team-mate Wilfried Zaha in midfield at 7.0, in addition to Benteke’s lack of penalties, a price of 8.0 may be too steep for some.

Certainly, with over 22% opting for Zaha ahead of home clashes with Huddersfield Town and Swansea City in the first three, only 10% are backing the target man. Having netted in the Eagles’ final friendly of the summer, though, Benteke could still be worth a short-term punt, particularly for those booking in their wildcards over the first international break.

Romelu Lukaku’s departure to Man United could bring Wayne Rooney or Sandro into contention at 7.5 apiece as a route into Everton’s attack.

Ronald Koeman’s side were the sixth top scorers in 2016/17, netting 62 times, though the opening schedule is somewhat against them – clashes with Man City, Chelsea, Spurs and Man United in the first five Gameweeks may limit their initial output.

But that hasn’t stopped 17% from loading up on Rooney in light of his return to Goodison. Claim penalties and the lone striker role and he has the potential to provide value, though the potential arrival of Gylfi Sigurdsson will force a reassessment when the schedule turns kinder in Gameweek 6.

And Sigurdsson’s future will also impact on Fernando Llorente at Swansea.

The playmaker’s creativity was a key factor in a successful debut season for the Spaniard, who netted 15 times last term. Priced at 7.5m, Llorente looks se to miss the first two Gameweeks with an arm problem, while the in-form Tammy Abraham at 5.5 provides a viable distraction.

Leicester City’s new arrival Kelechi Iheanacho looks set to claim a role alongside Jamie Vardy after a big-money move from Manchester City.

The Nigerian made a quick-fire impact on his debut last Friday emerging from the bench to assist Vardy’s second at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach, but limped off with a knock.

Furthermore, a lack of pre-season minutes, allied with encounters against Arsenal, Man United and Chelsea in the first four Gameweeks, highlights that he is best monitored for now.

It remains to be seen whether he can offer a viable alternative to Vardy, whose transformation under Craig Shakespeare last season saw him average 7.0 points per match following the departure of Claudio Ranieri.

Iheanacho’s impressive goal conversion rates of 28.6% and 18.2% for Man City over the last two seasons certainly offer hope that he could challenge for our third forward role if, as expected, he secures a regular role at the King Power.

With 23 goals and 13 assists over the last two seasons, Watford skipper Troy Deeney (6.5) cannot be ruled out altogether.

The Hornets’ designated penalty taker, Deeney has been sidelined over the summer with a groin problem, allowing us time to assess the impact of new manager Marco Silva before considering his services. At 5.5, his
stand-in Stefano Okaka has netted three times over the summer ahead of clashes with Bournemouth and Brighton in the first three.

Similar to Deeney, Newcastle’s Dwight Gayle (6.5) also has question marks over his fitness ahead of Gameweek 1. Worryingly, the Magpies’ frontman is being plagued by the hamstring problems that restricted him to just 26 starts in last term’s Championship.

Granted, Gayle netted 23 times and also supplied a pair of assists over his 32 outings but those injury concerns merely strengthen the claim of with midfielder Matt Ritchie in our reckoning. Priced at 6.0 and boasting penalties and set-pieces, the Scot could be quick to profit from a strong schedule from Gameweek 2 onwards. The form of 5.0 winger Christian Atsu – two goals and four assists over the summer – is also intriguing.

Up front, Gayle’s possible absence could open the door for Aleksandar Mitrovic (5.0) to cement a short-term role on the back of three pre-season strikes. It’s fair to say that the Serbian is yet to convince manager Rafa Benitez, though – he started just 11 matches in the Championship last term.

West Brom have some fine opening fixtures (BOU bur STK bha WHU ars WAT) but can we really place our trust in Salomon Rondon? The Venezuelan played a part in all 38 of the Baggies’ matches (32 starts) last term but scored just one goal from Gameweek 17 onwards.

New arrival Jay Rodriguez comes in at 6.0 to Rondon’s 6.5 and has already scored twice in pre-season, though there’s still a concern that he will take up an attacking midfield role. Alternatively, both Matt Phillips and Nacer Chadli are also 6.0 if you fancy a punt on Tony Pulis’ attack, with Phillips our preferred choice on the back of 4.3 ppm last season.

Burnley’s Andre Gray (6.5) is another form striker, having netted four times over the summer. But investing in the Clarets’ attack looks a decidedly risky business – all the more so when you consider they travel to Chelsea, Spurs, Liverpool and Everton in the opening seven.

Elsewhere, the likes of Danny Welbeck, Daniel Sturridge, Divock Origi, Marcus Rashford and Vincent Janssen are all favourably priced among last term’s top six. Arguably, though, it would require a run of injuries for any of that quintet to be assured of a regular role.

Rashford appears the most likely to break from this pack.

Jose Mourinho has threatened to pair the 19-year-old with new signing Romelu Lukaku and, should that materialise, then interest will surely ramp up.

However, Lukaku’s dominant 48.6% ownership could forever curtail significant investment in Rashford, bar an explosive run from the starlet.