Sergio Aguero is currently flying high in the Fantasy Football Scout poll (see home page) as the community’s preferred captain for Gameweek 4. However, as Bowstring The Carp excellently pointed out this week, the most popularly proposed captains in the scout opinion poll have consistently returned blanks this season. This article dares to sail away from the fleet and, based on form, fixtures and statistics, evaluates some alternative options for the armband for Gameweek 4.
Eden Hazard vs. Pardew’s Porous Palace
Let’s make no bones about it, Eden Hazard has had a slow start to the season. But with the arrival of Pedro last weekend he enjoyed an upturn in form, recording his first assist of the season. Significantly he won far more take-ons and created 2.5 times more chances for his team mates than he managed in a subdued performance against Swansea. With an additional week to work on interplay with Pedro, Willian and Costa, Hazard may be about to hit form for the first time this season against a team he historically thrives against.
The disparity in FPL returns between Hazard home vs. away is a well known phenomenon among seasoned players, less well known is Hazard’s particularly excellent home record at home against sides managed by Alan Pardew. Since the Belgian’s arrival at Chelsea at the start of the 2012-2013 season, he has five goals and one assist in three home games against Alan Pardew’s teams: a goal and an assist against Newcastle in 2012, three goals against them in 2013 and a goal against Crystal Palace last season. In Hazard’s only other game at home against Crystal Palace (2013), he assisted the winning goal in a 2-1 victory.
Key Stats – Hazard has scored 1.25 goals and 0.5 assists per game against Pardew and Palace since 2012.
Verdict – A safe choice for those looking for something different to the most popular herd option.
Alexander Kolarov vs. Watford Firing Blanks
Last year’s top goalscorer, Sergio Aguero, faces newly promoted Watford this weekend and, as mentioned at the start of the article, he is by far the community’s most popular captain choice this week. I am slightly uneasy about giving him the nod though as Watford have kept two clean sheets in a row in the League and Aguero failed to score in Manchester City’s last game against Everton.
City are yet to concede a goal this season and only Swansea have conceded fewer chances from open play. Considering Watford haven’t scored a goal in their last three games, that scout favourite Alexander Kolarov and defensive partner Vincent Kompany are both the highest scoring Manchester City players this season and the joint highest scoring defenders in the game (31 points) – given that both defenders offer both attacking and defensive returns, it is hard to ignore them this weekend.
Key Stats – In his last three games Kolarov has conceded no goals, while Watford have scored no goals in theirs.
Verdict – With just 13% ownership, Kolarov offers a fairly safe differential.
Riyad Mahrez vs. A Swashbuckling Bournemouth
Mahrez is the Premier League’s top goal scorer this season and it can hardly be described as a fluke. In the first three weeks only Alexis Sanchez and Olivier Giroud have had more shots on goal than the Algerian. Despite being one of the top five most highly owned players in the game, few managers are likely to be considering him as their captain for Gameweek 4, primarily due to his low FPL price.
This week Mahrez faces Eddie Howe’s newly promoted Bournemouth. Having promised to play free flowing attacking football, Bournemouth are are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league this season and Mahrez should have plenty of space to exploit this weekend.
Key Stats – Mahrez is the FPL and Premier League top scorer (4 goals), while Bournemouth are yet to keep a clean sheet in the league.
Verdict – A potential masterstroke but perhaps too much of a gamble for those already in a good league position.
Callum Wilson vs. Leicester’s Leaky Defence
A popular community pick before Gameweek 1, 75,000 managers have sold Wilson from their teams. However, Wilson’s early-season appeal – Bournemouth’s easy fixtures coupled with his prolific form last year – still applies. After proving himself in the top flight last week with a hat-trick, and the revelation that he is also first in line for penalties, Wilson now faces a Leicester side who are yet to keep a clean sheet.
Interestingly Leicester concede far more chances in the box than outside, which should offer encouragement to Wilson owners ahead of the weekend. Wilson is a penalty box specialist and is second only to Sanchez in penalty area touches so far this season, suggesting more goals are coming. Like Mahrez, few are likely to captain him purely due to his price, and with just 11% ownership he offers owners who entrust him with the armband the potential for a heroic climb up the standings should he continue to score this weekend.
Key Stats – Wilson is the most explosive player in the league; his 17 points last weekend edge out the 16 and 13 points scored by Toure and Lukaku in Gameweeks 1 and 2 respectively.
Verdict – A risk but worth a punt for those looking to make up some ground.
8 years, 8 months ago
This article could be the secret to a successful gameweek...will take nerves though to shun the heavy hitters.