After my look at relegation candidates last week I have now turned my attention to the performance of mid-table teams in the closing stages of a season.
The view in the football community is that these teams enter holiday mode early on with no threat of relegation or dream of European competition to spur them on.
Here I look back at the last two seasons, with a close eye on their final seven Gameweeks, to see if this is the case.
Teams
2014/2015 Stoke (9th), Chelsea (10th), Everton (11th) and Swansea (12th)
2015/2016 Crystal Palace (10th), Everton (11th), West Ham(12th) and West Brom (13th)
2015/2016
| Average goals per game | Average conceded per game | Average clean sheets per game | ||||||
| GW 32-38 | GW 1-38 | GW 32-38 | GW 1-38 | GW 32-38 | GW 1-38 | |||
| Stoke | 1.00 | 1.08 | 2.57 | 1.45 | 0.00 | 0.26 | ||
| Chelsea | 1.43 | 1.55 | 1.71 | 1.39 | 0.00 | 0.24 | ||
| Everton | 1.00 | 1.55 | 1.71 | 1.45 | 0.29 | 0.26 | ||
| Swansea | 1.57 | 1.11 | 1.71 | 1.37 | 0.14 | 0.24 | ||
Summary
The statistics comprehensively prove the theory that these teams’ performance start to slide towards the end of the season.
The key finding is the lack of clean sheets, with Stoke and Chelsea having no shut outs n the remaining seven games, while Swansea only kept one.
The other interesting fact is that the Potters conceded 2.57 goals per game in the last seven games, equivalent of 97.66 goals conceded over a season, which would have resulted in relegation and one of the lowest ever total conceded goal’s in a season. The goal output also dramatically decreased for three out of four teams, with Everton dropping from a potential 59 goals to 38 goals scored over a season.
2014/2015
| Average goals per game | Average conceded per game | Average clean sheets per game | ||||||
| GW 32-38 | GW 1-38 | GW 32-38 | GW 1-38 | GW 32-38 | GW 1-38 | |||
| Crystal Palace | 1.29 | 1.24 | 1.29 | 1.34 | 0.14 | 0.18 | ||
| Everton | 1.29 | 1.26 | 1.14 | 1.32 | 0.29 | 0.26 | ||
| West Ham | 0.43 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.24 | 0.29 | 0.24 | ||
| West Brom | 1.43 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 1.34 | 0.57 | 0.42 | ||
Summary
The 2014/2015 season did produce a mixed sample of data. The clean sheet and average goals conceded are very similar but teams did perform better in the remaining seven games. The statistics do suggest that West Ham’s attack may have booked their holiday early, scoring a mere three times towards the end of the season and seeing a reduction of 63% in their goal output.
Conclusion
I think two different season produced two different data results but I do believe with a larger sample of seasons we would see a dramatic reduction in form from mid table sides. The attacking slots will always be consumed by assets from the top table teams but defensively choosing budget defenders from relegation threatened Swansea, Hull and Bournemouth over mid table Southampton, Stoke and Watford could provide crucial FPL points.
Recommended Teams to avoid based on this article: West Brom, Southampton, Watford, Stoke, Leicester and West Ham
7 years, 18 days agoThanks for this. WBA are certainly already on their holidays.
Key is Southampton - a vital team for GWK 36 and 37...but could they let us down as they start dreaming of beaches.