FPL Player List Analysis – Mid-Price Defenders

Following on from our assessment of goalkeepers and budget defenders, we now take a look at the mid-price defenders in Fantasy Premier League.

This covers those assets costing 5.0 or 5.5, with rotation pairings far less of a factor here – particularly at the latter price point.

Instead, we should be pinpointing assured starters that offer both the prospect of clean sheets and attacking points. Ideally, they will also be favoured by the FPL’s Bonus Points System (BPS), which boosts their bonus point potential.

The 5.0 Market

Sitting in 20.5% of squads, Bournemouth’s Charlie Daniels is the most popular defender in this price bracket and the second most owned overall.

There’s no shortage of competition in the Cherries’ back-four, though. Nathan Ake, Steve Cook and Adam Smith also boast a significant attacking threat and are identically priced to the raiding left-back.

Owned by 2%, Cook could be the dark horse. Potentially the likeliest to claim bonus, he registered more Clearances, Blocks and Interceptions (CBI) than any defender in 2016/17 and fired more efforts in the box than any defensive team-mate. He earned Baseline BPS – that is BPS without the inclusion of goals, assists and clean sheets – at a rate of one point every 5.3 minutes. That bettered any of Bournemouth’s other backline options last season.

Both Simon Francis and keeper Asmir Begovic are cheaper at 4.5, with Francis a possible option if he can retain a regular role.

Certainly, the addition of both Ake and Begovic should improve a rearguard that shipped 67 goals last term, though it’s Daniels who remains our preferred pick after scoring four goals and three assists in 2016/17.

Eddie Howe’s side offer three favourable home matches (WAT BRI LEI) and a trip to West Brom in the first seven Gameweeks.

Cedric Soares has the schedule to offer exceptional value over the opening months. He looks very kindly priced compared to his defensive team-mates at 5.0 and will face just one of last season’s top nine over the first 11 Gameweeks.

New manager Mauricio Pellegrino had a fine defensive record at former club Alaves in the previous campaign – they conceded just 43 goals, a tally bettered by just four other sides.

Ranked among the top four defenders for both successful crosses and key passes in 2016/16, we’re expecting Cedric to improve upon a meagre tally of three assists. Over 16% of FPL managers concur.

The caveat here is that Cedric is yet to make an appearance in pre-season. Handed an extended break following Confederations Cup exploits with Portugal, we need to see him turn out prior to the season to be fully assured on his prospects. On his return, we currently consider Cedric as the most sought-after selection in the 5.0 bracket with the edge over team-mates Maya Yoshida and Jack Stephens.

As mentioned in our earlier pair of articles, Swansea City and West Brom present us with a home/away rotation pairing over the entire season.

But with Baggies quartet Jonny Evans, Craig Dawson, Gareth McAuley and Allan Nyom all priced at 5.0, there’s perhaps no surprise that keeper Ben Foster has claimed a 19.3% ownership after being listed at 4.5.

With McAuley in the twilight of his career, we’re placing our faith in Dawson to profit from an excellent first few fixtures. Tony Pulis’ team host Bournemouth, Stoke City, West Ham and Watford and also travel to Burnley and Brighton in the opening seven Gameweeks.

Dawson won more headers (126) and fired more attempts inside the box (18) than any other West Brom defender last season – a key factor to consider given that they scored more goals from corners (16) than any other side.

If you’re not opting for Foster between the posts, Dawson’s obvious goal threat has huge appeal and he seems destined to claim a high ranking in our Watchlist ladder prior to Gameweek 1.

For Swansea, although the likes of Kyle Naughton and Federici Fernandez offer options at 4.5, the goal threat of Alfie Mawson can be worth the extra outlay at 5.0 as a ‘fire and forget’ option.

After cementing a starting role in Gameweek 15 last year, Mawson was joint-top for shots inside the box (22) among defenders and scored four times.

Burnley’s crop of 4.5 budget options could come in as handy rotation partners if you are willing to bench a 5.0-priced defender for tricky fixtures.

As we’ve stated previously, Ben Mee is our favoured pick here and pairing him with a West Brom defender would hand you a kind run of seven home matches (BOU WBA STK CRY WHM HUD WAT) from the off.

Crystal Palace also alternate kindly with the Clarets over the same period, offering a run that consists of (HUD WBA SWA CRY SOT HUD).

Scott Dann’s goal threat makes him our stand-out Eagles’ pick at this price point, though Jeffrey Schlupp is also listed at 5.0 and could be in the mix if he ousts Patrick van Aanholt on the left. That has been the case so far over the pre-season.

James Tomkins and Martin Kelly are both cheaper at 4.5, though, and are worth monitoring if they can claim a regular role. With Frank De Boer deploying a 3-4-3 system, there is every chance that either Tomkins or Kelly will get the nod.

Stoke City also alternate early on with Burnley side and offer a kind opening stretch (eve WBA wba CRY new HUD SOU WHU BOU NEW).

We’d back Ryan Shawcross over Erik Pieters at 5.0 apiece. The Potters’ number one for CBI, Shawcross fired 20 efforts in the box last year, despite scoring just once. Like Palace, though, there are cheaper possible options to consider, with Geoff Cameron (4.5) hoping to claim a role in central midfield. Both Glenn Johnson and Phil Bardsley will also vie for the right-back role and are available for 4.5.

Leicester City new boy Harry Maguire currently looks a more enticing pick than Christian Fuchs at 5.0.

Maguire was second only to Chelsea’s Marcos Alonso for shots in the box (24 to 25) in the previous campaign but found the net just twice. However, with Robert Huth injured, Wes Morgan – at 4.5 – grants us an option to rotate home/away with Newcastle’s budget picks over the 38 Gameweeks instead. Danny Simpson also comes in at 4.5 if Maguire claims a centre-half berth in Huth’s absence.

The arrival of Marco Silva at Watford could boost the prospects of Jose Holebas and Daryl Janmaat, though there are a host of 4.5 picks – including their respective goalkeepers – potentially offering the value route instead.

It’s a similar situation at West Ham, with the arrival of Joe Hart as a 4.5 option diminishing the appeal of Jose Fonte, Winston Reid, Aaron Cresswell and Pablo Zabaleta. The Hammers schedule – with four away trips in five Gameweeks – also gives us time to revisit their prospects.

Huddersfield Town’s Tommy Smith is the only promoted defender with a price over the 4.5 mark. Four goals and 10 assists in last season’s Championship underlines manager David Wagner’s penchant for raiding full-backs, though the Terriers’ defence looks far from resilient.

Elsewhere, there are a number of options among last season’s top six that could yet factor in our thinking, but for now, there’s too much uncertainty over their pitch time.

Arsenal’s Rob Holding, Per Mertesacker, Gabriel and Kieran Gibbs may struggle for minutes, although Holding seems the likeliest to benefit from the 3-4-2-1 formation.

Phil Jagielka’s pitch-time at Everton also seems in doubt after the arrival of Michael Keane, while elsewhere on Merseyside, Mamadou Sakho surely needs to leave Liverpool to remain a viable option – as evidenced by his displays for Palace last time out.

Over at Manchester United, Phi Jones seems a peripheral figure and Luke Shaw will need to somehow find his way out of the treatment room and convince Jose Mourinho of his merits before he can come into consideration.

The 5.5 Market

Kyle Walker’s switch to Manchester City opens the door for Kieran Trippier to finally claim a regular role in a Spurs team that produced 17 clean sheets last season.

Trippier is the most popular defensive pick in this price bracket – selected by 19% of FPL managers on the back of five assists in just 12 appearances (six starts) last time out.

His quality of delivery from the flank is highly impressive. Despite playing a mere 566 minutes, he created more big chances (five) than any Spurs full-back last season, averaging a key pass every 43.5 minutes.

Indeed, his propensity to create chances significantly boosts his BPS potential. His baseline BPS numbers are hugely impressive, with the left-back gather a point every 4.4 minutes.

With the rest of Mauricio Pochettino’s regulars all sitting in the premium bracket, the former Burnley man is likely to thrive going forward in the wing-back system. However, Ben Davies also comes in at 5.5 and could start the season on the left if Danny Rose remains sidelined.

Spurs are also blessed with an eye-catching opening schedule, facing just two of last season’s top eight in the first eight Gameweeks.

Victor Lindelof is our pick of the bunch from a list of five Manchester United defenders (along with Chris Smalling, Marcos Rojo, Matteo Darmian and Daley Blind) at a price of 5.5.

The summer signing has proven a popular pick, too. Currently backed by 15.8%, he could also be in the pecking order for direct free-kicks following the departure of Wayne Rooney and Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

Lindelof is expected to claim a place alongside the pricier Eric Bailly in the heart of a defence that matched Spurs’ 17 shut-outs and also offers a very favourable run to justify that level of investment – United face just one of last year’s top six in the first eight rounds of fixtures.

However, his pre-season form has been far from convincing which has dented confidence somewhat.

Given United’s potential for early clean sheets, Bailly or Antonio Valencia currently appear more secure options and could eat back into Lindelof’s ownership before Gameweek 1.

Everton’s new boy Michael Keane is another with considerable backing.

Over 13% have already invested, despite the Toffees’ tough opening schedule. Ronald Koeman’s men face Man City, Chelsea, Spurs and Man United in the first five Gameweeks.

Nonetheless, we feel that Keane’s eye for goal could still profit – 22 efforts in the box was sixth-top at the back in 2016/17 and seven more than new team-mate Ashley Williams.

Keane and Williams both offer serious CBI potential – they placed third and fourth for this metric last time out and look an ideal partnership as Koeman seeks to improve upon a total of 13 clean sheets.

Over at St Mary’s, the appeal of both Ryan Bertrand and Virgil van Dijk undoubtedly suffers from Cedric’s kind price tag.

The duo bettered the Portuguese for points per match in the previous campaign, with 4.4 and 3.6 to 3.4 respectively, yet our quest for value keeps Cedric as the main man for now. There’s also no doubt that Van Dijk’s expected departure will have a detrimental effect on their clean sheet count.

Arsenal’s end-of-season switch to a wing-back system impacts on our assessment of Nacho Monreal and Shkodran Mustafi.

Mustafi offered a considerable close-range threat last term. Despite scoring just twice, he sat joint-sixth with Keane for efforts in the box among defenders.

Essentially though, if Hector Bellerin and Sead Kolasinac look nailed-on as wing-backs, paying just 0.5 extra could be the sensible move for those looking for a route into the Gunners’ defence.

We’ll be keeping an eye on Joel Matip should Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp rotate his full-backs to cope with European fixtures this season.

The pricier James Milner is our preferred pick thanks to spot-kick duties, but with new boy Andrew Robertson added to the mix as a natural left-back, it remains to be seen whether Milner’s security of starts will hold firm. Certainly, at 5.0, Robertson could turn heads if he can cement a regular role but it’s too early to tell whether he can make an immediate impact.

He may have scored just once last year, but Matip produced 24 efforts in the box– just one fewer than Chelsea’s Marcos Alonso at the summit. That threat makes him a more appealing option than Dejan Lovren and Nathaniel Clyne for those reluctant to shell out 6.5 on Milner.

Man City’s defence failed to convince last season, although it’s worth noting they conceded the fewest shots of any side.

New keeper Ederson hardly covered himself in glory during the recent defeat to Man United, while faith in John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi is similarly thin. All three sit under the 5% mark, with the premium-priced Kyle Walker boasting 18.7% ownership after arriving from Spurs.

Elsewhere, Palace’s Patrick van Aanholt now looks overpriced at 5.5 in the light of De Boer’s summer teamsheets. However, should he eventually oust Jeffrey Schlupp at wing-back, there’s no doubt that the Eagles’ system boosts the Dutchman’s appeal. He is a proven threat in the attacking third having scored 11 times in the last two seasons.

There’s next to no chance that you’ll be splashing 5.5 on a Stoke defender, although the impact of Kurt Zouma’s switch to the bet365 may force a reassessment. If Mark Hughes moves to a three-man defence and operates with wing-backs, the likes of Pieters, or even Johnson or Bardsley, could be the main winners here.