Breaking The Template – Part One

For even the most experienced of Fantasy managers, this season hasn’t quite gone to plan. Those multiple hours of detailed analysis on player statistics and fixtures list which have proved crucial to past success have yet to reap reward – it’s been a frustrating first couple of months. Conventional Fantasy Football wisdom may have failed us so far but with another 31 Gameweeks of the campaign yet to unfold, it’s time to regroup and assess the situation.

In the first of this two-part feature, we cast an eye over the top 10 in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) game, analyse the current transfer trends in order to gauge just how strong the “template team” for this season has become and look at ways to remedy the malaise currently afflicting many of our Fantasy squads.

What is the template squad and how established is it?

By looking at the top 10 teams in FPL, it’s immediately apparent just how quickly the template for early-season success has settled – a pool of 13 players populates at least four of those sides.

9 – Aaron Ramsey and Daniel Sturridge
8 – Yaya Toure and Olivier Giroud
7 – Leighton Baines and Romelu Lukaku
5 – Simon Mignolet, Artur Boruc and Ross Barkley
4 – John Terry, Branislav Ivanovic, Jose Fonte and Michu

Broken down, by position this lends itself almost perfectly into the 3-4-3 formation preferred by Fantasy managers – Southampton’s Artur Boruc ties with Simon Mignolet for a place between the sticks, whilst Chelsea’s John Terry and Branislav Ivanovic have proven equally popular in defence.

GK: Boruc/Mignolet
DEF: Terry/Ivanovic, Fonte, Baines
MID: Ramsey, Toure, Barkley, Michu
FWD: Sturridge, Giroud, Lukaku

The rest, however, practically pick themselves, with Mesut Ozil and Hatem Ben Arfa the closest to breaking the midfield monopoly, having found a place in three of the top 10 teams so far. Up front, however, the situation is emphatic –Sturridge, Giroud and Lukaku are overwhelming favourites. Indeed, four of the top five have those three leading the line, with six of the top 10 opting for the trio. Such is their popularity, they take up 24 of the 30 forward slots in the top 10, with only five other forwards (Luis Suarez (twice), Wayne Rooney, Roberto Soldado, Loic Remy and Dwight Gayle) deemed worthy of consideration.

Why has it been so effective?

The overall downturn in goals, combined with the new FPL Bonus Points System (BPS), has also played a significant part in how the season has unfolded. With players benefitting more than ever before from a clean sheet, the forwards’ collective inability to find the net has, in turn, favoured backline options considerably.

Looking at the table above, the lack of consistency from strikers is all too apparent. Granted, more frontmen have scored 40+ points than any other classification but dig deeper and the situation is clearer.

So far this season, a total of 40 players have scored 30 or more points in FPL but the spread across the classifications is revealing – eight goalkeepers, 15 defenders, 10 midfielders and just seven forwards. Even at the 25 point cut-off mark, the situation fails to improve – indeed, keepers (12) have kept pace with the forwards, with over double the number of defenders (30) producing the points.

The lack of impact from the premium midfielders, in particular, that has had an impact. It’s been a real kick in the teeth for those of us who had high expectations for the likes of Eden Hazard (741,000+ transfers out now), Philippe Coutinho (558,000), David Silva (521,000), Juan Mata (461,000) and Theo Walcott (459,000), with Ramsey, Barkley and the likes of Robbie Brady not only proving superb value but consistently outscoring the big guns to this point. In terms of big-money midfielders, only Yaya Toure, Oscar and Michu have stuck to the script in the opening seven Gameweeks – the rest of the current top 10 highest scoring midfielders started the season at 7.0 or less.

Up front, David Moyes’ arrival at United seems to have dented Robin Van Persie’s prospects. With attacking returns in only two of the first seven Gameweeks, the Dutchman has been a shadow of the player that took the Premier League by storm over the past couple of seasons and afforded Fantasy managers a reliable weekly armband contender. Aside from the injured Christian Benteke (875,000), no other forward has received more transfers out than Van Persie (593,000) but a lack of form, allied with a price tag of 13.9 and the cheaper in-form Rooney option for United’s upcoming schedule means more are bailing out.

Intriguingly, only one of the current top 10 started the season with Van Persie amongst their ranks – clearly, their initial lack of faith in the Dutchman has paid off so far.

Should I Look Break the Template?

Further deconstruction of the above-mentioned top scorers is revealing. Listed below are the total number of players to have produced 25 FPL points or more this term, analysed according to both starting price and classification.

Defenders who kicked off the campaign in the 4.5 to 5.0 price bracket are the most represented here – 15 have picked up at least 25 points in the first seven Gameweeks. As many as 35 keepers and/or defenders who began the season at 6.0 or less make the cut here – factor in the 11 midfielders at 7.5 or under who have also achieved this feat and it’s clear that value has been greater than ever this season.

The irony is that we typically rely on these budget players to save the pennies that allow us to acquire the big-hitters. As the data highlights, however, the premium options have, overall, simply failed to show any sort of consistency – only five players who started the season at 9.5 or more have managed to produce at least 25 points so far.

Previously, our patience is usually rewarded in such scenarios as the main men soon find their feet and start to rectify their lack of returns. Logic would suggest that Van Persie, for example, will start to find the net at a quicker pace, given that he’s scored twice inside the box from 19 attempts in the area – when you compare this to Ramsey’s stats of four and eight respectively, it highlights just how the Welshman has surpassed all expectations so far. Nevertheless, it also indicates that, in Van Persie’s case, he has still been presented with multiple opportunities to improve his goal tally – he simply hasn’t managed to take them. As our members area highlight, the underlying stats of many premium priced options remain very strong – they simply aren’t putting the ball in the net.

Ramsey, though, has shown time and again this term that the players in form are continuing to flourish and are punishing those managers who choose to overlook them. In midfield, his stats are poorer than team-mate Theo Walcott and Everton’s Kevin Mirallas, who have both fired 10 efforts from close range without finding the net once, yet the Welshman’s consistency of end product is, understandably, persuading the masses to jump on board the bandwagon.

The line between picking a player in form and chasing points seems thinner than ever this term. Certainly, those managers who have the likes of Ramsey or Toure will have no qualms over holding the pair but for those sitting near the bottom of their mini-leagues staring upwards, acquiring them at this point looks a debatable tactic.

Looking at the transfer trends over the last week shows it’s not just the top 10 managers who are keen on the template team. Of those 13 players mentioned above, Boruc and Mignolet are the two most transferred in keepers in the Gameweek, Fonte, Terry and Baines are three of the four most popular defenders, Barkley, Ramsey and Toure in the top four midfielders, whilst Lukaku, Sturridge and Giroud are in in the top five for most sought-after forwards. Given that Suarez and Remy make up the top five highlights the extent to which the masses are following the managers at the top.

One glance at the leader of the overall standings highlights how differentials can make the difference, though. He leapt to number one in the world last week after transferring in Adam Lallana, with the Saints skipper’s 11 point-haul against Swansea enough to help him to the summit . Regardless of overall standing, then, it’s clear that finding a less popular approach or player choice is key to combatting the template advocates – in the second part of this feature, we will highlight some available routes that could lead to shoots of recovery.