Fixture Analysis – Rotation Pairs – Crystal Palace and Hull

Our series of articles analysing potential rotation pairings for the season ahead got underway towards the end of last week with a look at the prospects offered up by West Ham and Southampton. This time round, we cast an eye over a couple of the promoted clubs as Crystal Palace and Hull come under the spotlight.

The Fixtures

Similar to West Ham and Southampton, Palace and Hull’s home/away fixtures alternate perfectly over the entirety of the 2013/14 campaign. Delving further into the data, by alternating the duo in accordance with home fixture over the first half of the season you would play host to one of last term’s top eight just five times in the opening 19 Gameweeks.

For Palace, this occurs three times – Gameweek 1 against Tottenham, Gameweek 9 with Arsenal and Gameweek 11 at home to Everton, whereas Hull are affected twice – Liverpool roll up to the KC Stadium in Gameweek 13 and United also arrive in Gameweek 18. Aside from this quintet of fixtures, you’d face (NOR, SUN, CAR, SWA, WHM, AVL, FUL, SUN, CPL, WHM, CAR, STO, NEW, FUL) over the first 19 fixtures – a pretty strong looking schedule. Furthermore, for those eyeing up three-way rotation defender options, it’s worth noting that those above-mentioned tricky fixtures could be navigated by also having a Norwich backline option on board – they have home games against Everton, Cardiff, West Ham, Palace and Fulham in Gameweeks 1,9, 11, 13 and 18 respectively.

While the first half of the campaign is kind, the latter part becomes a little trickier for Palace and Hull, particularly in the last couple of months. From Gameweek 30 onwards, this combination would entertain City (twice), Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Everton over the final nine fixtures – not the easiest of run ins by any means and one that may need addressing when it rolls around.

Defence

Crystal Palace
As mentioned in our article on Ian Holloway’s side earlier this summer, Palace were hardly the most resilient of sides last time out. With six clean sheets in 23 games at Selhurst Park and five accrued on the road, it may well be that Julian Speroni turns out the best value bet, with save points aplenty anticipated for the Argentine. From an attacking perspective, centre-half Damien Delaney produced three goals and a couple of assists last year, though left-back Jonathan Parr provided four assists in 38 matches before sustaining ankle ligament damage; if he’s fit for the start of the season, he may be one to consider.

Price-wise, it’s noticeable that all three first-choice keepers from the promoted sides last time out began the campaign at 4.5 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL). Many of the defenders, on the other hand, were afforded a starting cost of 4.0 – a factor which will likely affect our plans, with a potentially crucial 1.0 saving on the cards.

Hull
Steve Bruce’s side were a little more reliable at the back in last season’s Championship, with 10 clean sheets registered in front of their own fans and six on the road. Hull mainly utilised a 3-5-2 formation last season which may, potentially, limit the number of defensive options available if Fantasy games classify their wing-backs as midfielders – all the more frustrating if Bruce decides to operate with the 4-4-1-1 rolled out for the final, promotion-winning game of the season against Cardiff.

The Tigers are still in the hunt for a goalkeeper after on-loan David Stockdale returned to parent club Fulham – he may well make his way back to the KC, though Bruce has also been linked with the likes of Kaspar Schmeichel and Chris Kirkland.

Maynor Figueroa has arrived from relegated Wigan and certainly has experience of operating in a three-man backline should Bruce keep faith in last term’s tactics and while Abdoulaye Faye chipped in with four goals from centre-half last season, a lack of mobility raises question marks over his game time as a regular in the top-flight. Paul McShane may also be earmarked by some – he was utilised as part of a back-three and proved versatile enough to be shifted to left-back, though Hull are clearly in the market for new defenders and have agreed terms with Birmingham for the transfer of Curtis Davis earlier this week. With no stand-out defensive options from either side at present, however, a keeper pairing looks the most enticing combination, with Speroni teamed up with Hull’s eventual first-choice stopper.

Attacking Options

The Main Men
Both sides can be expected to be kindly priced across the Fantasy games, affording us a handful of budget propositions to mull over – whether there’s value in their acquisition is perhaps another matter altogether. Certainly, with last season’s top scorer Glen Murray injured and star player Wilfried Zaha snapped up by Man United, Palace will have to dip into the market in order to grab our attentions. Murray looked particularly promising – 30 goals and seven assists from 43 appearances highlights just how clinical he was in the previous campaign and given that he may be out until Christmas, Ian Holloway seems certain to pick up a replacement.

At present, Owen Garvan appears to be the most alluring option – playing in “the hole”, he produced four goals and six assists from 30 appearances and has a fair share of corners and free-kicks, while Yannick Bolasie registered three goals and eight assists over 45 games from the left flank. A price of 5.0 apiece seems realistic for the duo, with a ceiling of 5.5 likely.

As hinted at beforehand, Hull’s prospects may hinge on the classification of their wing-backs. Bruce fielded Robbie Brady and on-loan Ahmed Elmohamady on the left and right of midfield respectively last term; the Egyptian is expected to soon complete a permanent deal from Sunderland and if either is listed as a defender, they could provide us with real out of position potential – in all likelihood, though, it would be a real surprise if they came in as defenders in FPL.

Nevertheless, the pair may still be decent midfield prospects if their prices are kind enough. Brady has a share of set-pieces and corners and chipped in with four goals and 13 assists last season and was also fielded in “the hole” in a 4-4-1-1, while Elmohamady produced three goals and nine assists and was also utilised on the right of a midfield four. Skipper Robert Koren could also be one to watch. Fielded as the most advanced central midfielder when Bruce rolled out a 3-5-2 and with spot-kicks, a share of set-pieces and corners in his locker, Koren produced nine goals and five assists from 40 appearances – once again, a maximum cost of 5.5 is anticipated, with 5.0 perhaps the likeliest scenario.

With eight goals and four assists in 23 appearances, Sone Aluko ended the campaign as Hull’s second joint-top scorer despite failing to play since January due to an Achilles injury. Bruce has already admitted the Nigerian was key to his side’s 3-5-2 formation and is optimistic he’ll be ready for the start of the season – last term’s injury is likely to keep Aluko’s price low and, with a maximum 5.5 expected, he could be a real under the radar cheap third forward.

With over two months of the summer transfer window remaining, though, there are sure to be a handful of new arrivals which may prove more enticing. A one-year loan return to Selhurst Park for Zaha has already been reported as a potential deal, while out-of-favour forwards such as Darren Bent and Peter Odemwingie have been linked with both clubs as Bruce and Holloway look for a little more top-flight experience to boost their respective sides’ chances of survival.