Rotation Pairs – Crystal Palace & West Ham

After taking a look at the rotation pairings offered up by Burnley and West Brom, Hull and Middlesbrough, and Bournemouth and Watford, we now turn our attentions to Crystal Palace and West Ham.

It’s worth noting that this duo isn’t one of the most “conventional” pairings, in the sense that they only alternate on a home/away basis for 24 of the 38 Gameweeks – including each of the first 12 rounds of fixtures. As we’ll see, Palace and West Ham still look a very viable option for those seeking a rotation partnership in defence.

The Fixtures

Despite losing ten and drawing three of their matches at Selhurst Park last season, Palace conceded just 23 goals in front of their own fans – just one more than Southampton and Liverpool, for example.

Alan Pardew’s men racked up six clean sheets in front of their own fans – compared to two on their travels – which highlights the likelihood of picking up defensive returns at home.

Palace scored just 39 times all season, though, with a tally of 19 home goals superior only to relegated Villa, so the idea of rotating their attackers seems a far less enticing option.

West Ham also picked up six clean sheets at home, though were more resilient than the Eagles on their travels and kept out their opponents on five occasions.

Given that they scored 65 times (34 at home, 31 away) last term, which was equal to Arsenal and a tally bettered by only three other teams, it’s fair to say we expect the Hammers’ attack to be far too dangerous, and pricey, for Fantasy managers to consider benching.

Assessing the schedules, by playing the most favourable fixtures over each of the first 20 Gameweeks, you would face only four of last season’s top ten. This consists of home encounters against Liverpool (Gameweek 10), Man City (GW12) and Southampton (GW14) before a trip to either Arsenal or Leicester in Gameweek 19.

Outwith that quarter, you’d be handed ten very promising home matches (WBA, BOU, BOU, WAT, STO, MID, SUN, BUR, HUL, SWA) as well as trips to promoted pair Burnley and Hull and visits to Sunderland, Palace, Swansea and Watford.

Over the final 18 Gameweeks, the Palace/Hammers pairing continues to look favourable. Granted, the “easiest” fixture is on the road on eight occasions but seven of those clashes (mid, bou, wba, bou, hul, sun, bur) are either against promoted clubs or teams who finished in the bottom seven last year.

Looking at the ten home fixtures, nine of them (CPL, SUN, WBA, MID, WAT, SWA, EVE, BUR, HUL) seem conducive to defensive returns, leaving just a trip to Southampton in Gameweek 31 and visit from Spurs in Gameweek 36 as the toughest matches in the latter half of the season.

In terms of alternative partnerships, Palace alternate home/away with Swansea over all 38 Gameweeks and rotate with Burnley on 36 occasions. The Hammers, meanwhile, rotate with Southampton for the 38 rounds of fixtures, though that pairing looks unlikely to offer us a double-up for defensive regulars for under 10.0.

If you’re looking to research further on rotation pairs, as mentioned in a previous article, we’ve introduced a new feature for members this season to help analyse potential fixture pairings via the Season Ticker. By selecting any team and hitting “sort by rotation”, the ticker now ranks those teams most appropriate for rotation with the highlighted team over the Gameweek range you choose to display. You can apply this using both the attacking and defence filters to analyse rotation pairings at both ends of the pitch.

Defence

Crystal Palace
New signing Steve Mandanda looks very likely to oust Wayne Hennessey between the posts after being snapped up from Marseille earlier in the summer. In terms of minutes per save (34.1 to 34.4), there wasn’t much between the pair last year but given the considerable outlay, Mandanda will surely start the campaign as Pardew’s new number one.

Second amongst all defenders for both goals scored (five) and efforts inside the box last year, Scott Dann remains Palace’s number one option at the back. Much depends on his price, though- having started last term at 5.0, his exploits could even force a price hike to 5.5, which would certainly end his appeal as a rotation option at least.

Joel Ward and Damien Delaney both found the net on two occasions last term and were equal for attempts on target, with six apiece. Whilst the former still looks set to continue in Palace’s back-four, the acquisition of James Tomkins from West Ham places major question marks over Delaney’s security of starts in 2016/17. Tomkins has struggled to nail down a regular role in recent years, though it’s worth noting that the last time he was a secure pick – albeit in 2011/12 in the Championship – he racked up four goals and as many assists. Tomkins won a higher percentage of his headers than both Dann and Delaney last year, which could be profitable in a Palace side that sat third for attempts from set-pieces.

On the left, Pape Souare failed to find the net and managed just one assist last season. The Ivorian produced almost double the number of key passes as Ward (27 to 14) in just over 300 minutes more pitch time and could remain under the radar, given his lack of output in 2015/16.

West Ham
Adrian sat fifth for saves in last year’s top-flight despite missing six league matches. Indeed, the Spaniard’s average of 30.1 minutes per stop was equal to Lukas Fabianski, who finished second for total saves over the season. Impressively, Adrian’s penalty-saving exploits have seen him deny five spot-kicks in the last couple of seasons and he looks nailed-on under Slaven Bilic.

With two goals and four assists to his name, Aaron Cresswell remains the standout option amongst the Hammers’ defence. The raiding left-back sat third in the top-flight for chances created amongst defenders in 2015/16, though, like Palace’s Dann, there’s a fear than he could come in pricier than his defensive team-mates as a consequence of last season’s achievements.

Angelo Ogbonna flitted in and out of the back-four after arriving from Juventus but the Italian gradually acclimatised to life in the Premier League and started the final 13 league matches. Nonetheless, he lags behind skipper Winston Reid for Clearances, Blocks and Interceptions (CBI) as well as attempts on goal (six to 18), despite playing over 200 minutes more than the Kiwi international.

It’s worth noting that new boy Havard Nordtveit made 17 of his 27 league starts for MGladbach at centre-half last year. He bagged four goals and an assist in the Bundesliga but seems likely to be listed as a midfielder.

We’re also hoping that Sam Byram can finally nail down a starting role at right-back. Handed just two starts after arriving from Leeds in the winter transfer window, he fell behind Michail Antonio in the pecking order as Bilic rolled out three and four-man defences in the final few months. Crucially, we need Antonio to be utilised as a midfielder for the season ahead, though the arrival of wingers Sofiane Feghouli and Gokhan Tore is a real concern.

In terms of potential pricing, the lower end of this partnership is likely to set you back around 9.5, though both Dann and Cresswell look highly unlikely to come in at a cost affordable enough to use either as part of a rotation pair.

Attack

Crystal Palace
Bearing in mind that no Eagles player scored more than five goals in 2015/16, it’s fair to say our expectations are relatively low once again.

Certainly, the signing of Andros Townsend from Newcastle will shake things up in the final third. Should Pardew opt to play the former Spurs man on the right of his 4-2-3-1, Wilfried Zaha may be forced onto the left flank, with Yannick Bolasie moved centrally behind a lone striker.

There’s also the likes of Jason Puncheon and Bakary Sako pushing for minutes but, like Zaha, the pair scored just twice last term and look far from guaranteed starters. With four goals in 12 starts for the Magpies, Townsend could emerge as the man most likely and should come in at no more than 6.5.

Yohan Cabaye could also be one to consider if he retains dead-ball duties. The Frenchman – who netted five times (three from spot-kicks) last season – sat first for attempts on goal and second for chances created in his first year at Selhurst Park.

The departure of Dwight Gayle currently leaves Connor Wickham in pole position for the lone striker role, though bearing in mind that the latter has scored just five times in each of the last three seasons, Pardew is clearly determined to improve his options.

Having failed in a bid for Michy Batshuayi, the Eagles boss is now focusesd on bringing Christian Benteke on board. The big Belgian has struggled to fit into Liverpool’s style of play and a move to Palace would be more suited to the strengths of a striker who scored 42 times in 89 league outings for a struggling Villa side.

West Ham
As mentioned already, this pairing looks best considered for defensive options alone.

Whilst Palace’s attackers can be expected to remain in the low mid-price bracket, Dimitri Payet is poised for a move into the premium bracket after averaging 5.7 points per appearance in his first season in the top-flight – a tally bettered only by Riyad Mahrez. Nailed-on in either a central support berth or wide left, he was second only to Mesut Ozil for key passes in the Premier League last year and remains the standout fixture-proof option under Bilic again, though he could be eased into action in the first week or two due to his Euro 2016 exertions for France.

Given that he managed just two sub outings in the first 14 Gameweeks of 2015/16, Michail Antonio – who racked up eight goals and seven assists – can be expected to come in around the mid-price bracket, with a cost of 7.0-7.5 anticipated. As mentioned, though, the acquisition of Sofiane Feghouli and Gokhan Tore, allied with recent comments from David Gold, suggests Antonio could be utilised as a right-back in the campaign ahead. If Bilic opts for a wing-back system, though, Antonio – who was second for minutes per goal for the Hammers – could yet remain in contention.

Certainly, Bilic has food for thought as both new wide men lack a goal threat – Feghouli has never scored more than six goals in a league season, whilst Tore – who has played under the Croatian with Besiktas – has never bettered four strikes.

Along with the likes of Mark Noble and Manuel Lanzini, they may struggle to earn a place in our five-man midfields. With Lanzini missing for the first couple of Gameweeks as a result of his call-up to the Argentina squad for the summer Olympics, Feghouli and Tore will be hoping to stake a claim for regular minutes from the outset, particularly if Payet is eased back into contention.

Up front, reports linking the Hammers with a move for AC Milan’s Carlos Bacca suggest that Andy Carroll may struggle to retain the lone forward role. The big Geordie’s continued battle with injuries remain a real issue, though, and whilst his aerial ability is a handy weapon, a lack of mobility means he may be utilised as a Plan B off the bench if Bilic can land a big name to lead the line.