Dugout Discussion – Burnley vs Man City

Aguero time

If Kun goes mental the season is over for my rival

Sterling C cmon!

Sterling (C) masterclass incoming

Sterling!!!

KDB do ya ting

(K)UN OTAMENDI AND STERLING, LETS GO LADS.

I think Pep might be cold.

Hatties from Kun,KDB and Sterling needed.. That's all I want..

Sold Ota for a hit. Watch him score, keep a CS and get max baps.

6 on the bench? How many are there usually?

Cmon Bernardo and Sterling (c). Massive differentials

If u (c) kun, do u want him to blank or do well?

Brace each for Raheem and Otta, all assisted by Kun (c) please!

Has Aguero scored yet

A Kun blank would already make my weekend regardless of what else happens.

A quick shout out to Stephen Ward.

First third of the season hero.

Another masterclass Kevin. tx

The NBC broadcast has shown the bench more than the pitch so far.

Hatties from Ogbonny, Kiko & Bardsley needed.. That's all I want..

I'd be happy with 0-0 here.

No Stones, No Jones, No Ibe, No Shakira

Great, an hour anf a half of hoping aguero doesn't score

It does feel weird that Salah's EO is always over 100% (in top 10k which is a better indication imo than OR) means owning a player who you want to blank every GW you don't captain 😀

How long till Kompany comes of injured?

Bottled Aguero cap for Salah

>.

No need to panic shaqiri owners.nothing official

Ahhh, as the whole debate moved under new article, i am moving my rant too. Please share your deep and experienced opinions on the subject of "differentials".

This is a random rant against luck searching called "differentials".

Reasoning behind usual differential seeking: "30+% of managers own certain player, so even if he scores, I will not benefit from it as much as if lower owned player with similar probabilities scores." And so each gameweek we have the "differential pick" discussions.

If you search for differentials, you are harming your long term chances. There is usually some good reason why certain players have a high ownership. You do not buy players for next three games, you buy them to hold for 10 games or more.

Picking Walcott right now is not differential (even though he still has low ownership). Everybody owning Lingard or Richarlison and a spare million should buy him. Everybody owning injured Sane, David Silva and Jesus should do it too. It's pure value: he will play up front, Everton is a good team with good fixtures, and he is positioned as a midfielder in fantasy so he gains clean sheet points and additional point from each goal (compared to strikers). He is future sterling/richarlison/gross etc.

Picking for instance Martial or Pogba, because its ManUtd and a great talent and two easy games in front of them is searching for luck that we like to call "differential". Both of them WILL NOT regularly play an attacking role, because Sanchez and Lukaku both must play. If Pogba gets an attacking role, Martial won't start. If Martial starts, Pogba will be pulled back to pair with Matic. And then there are Rashford and Lingard, the latter owned by 17%, (including me, lol) with a lot of uncertainties. At this moment we do not know what will happen. Reasonable play is waiting to see before buying ManUtd attacking players.

And because most managers are reasonable, Pogba only has 15% ownership even though he is a fantastic overall player at 8 milion. Martial is only owned by 5%, even though he is currently second best midfielder in form (6 points per match), better than Salah, Hazard, or De Bruyne.

Each time some kind of "differential" idea comes up, it is an option full of uncertainties, while there are perfectly viable options for the same price. And sometimes difference seeker gets lucky (Martial scores and Sterling doesn't), but most times heavily owned Sterling or Firmino does his job, and 40% of managers gain another 6 points against differential seeker.

You can only search for differentials after you took care of the basics and your team is value-proof for at least next 5 weeks. True "differential" is not getting a lucky strike, but RECOGNISING VALUE BEFORE THE MASSES: buying Firmino in the week Coutinho left Liverpool, buying Aguero the week Jesus got injured, buying Walcott when Allardyce showed intent of playing him.

There, i said it. And I actually like ManUtd, the case was only picked because it is so explicitly dumb to lunge in when they have just bought Sanchez and the positions on the field are not clear yet.

Burnley players dropping like flies

Man city "butchering" the Burnley players here