Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 27 – The Weak

After checking in on the sides with favourable schedules, we now turn our focus to those who face more testing periods, both in the short-term, and over a longer period of Gameweeks.

Once again Gameweek 31 and the threat of postponed fixtures is a factor in our analysis.
Meanwhile, Gameweek 28 is also a worry given that Arsenal’s meeting with Manchester City would need to be rescheduled should Wigan Athletic take the league leaders to a replay.

Added to this, the intensity of the schedule – with European fixtures adding to the mix – is also a major cause for concern.

The Short-Term

Arsenal (tot MCI bha)
While they boast the three most popular signings ahead of Gameweek 27, the upcoming schedule should potentially curb our immediate enthusiasm.

The next couple of weeks give us many variables to consider.

Early investment looks hasty given the Gameweek 28 clash with Manchester City could drop out if Pep Guardiola’s side are taken to a replay with Wigan Athletic in the FA Cup fifth round.

Although the Gunners are themselves out of the FA Cup – and are therefore handed a break next weekend – they still have three matches – the two legs of their Europa League tie against Oestersunds FK and the Carabao Cup final with Man City – before Gameweek 28 is even played.

While we expect the second string will be fielded in those European matches, there’s a fair degree of risk attached to invest right now.

We also have to consider that the Gameweek 29 trip to Brighton & Hove Albion follows just three days after the possible league clash with City on the Thursday. So we could even see some rotation at the Amex Stadium, particularly in the attacking areas where Arsene Wenger now has an embarrassment of riches.

From Gameweek 30, things pick up considerably, though a blank in Gameweek 31 beckons if Leicester City get past a home tie with Sheffield United in the FA Cup.

That provides reason to perhaps avoid Arsenal investment until Gameweek 32, when back-to-back home fixtures with Stoke City and Southampton mark the beginning of a very favourable run-in.

Their potential as a source of Fantasy talent over the final few rounds will be heavily dependent on whether they miss Gameweek 28 or Gameweek 31, and are therefore handed at least one double Gameweek.

They will avoid a further postponement because their Gameweek 35 fixture with West Ham United is guaranteed to go ahead, with both teams are out of the FA Cup on the weekend that the semi-finals are played out.

The Long-Term

Manchester City (LEI ars CHE stk BHA eve MUN tot)
City’s schedule causes concern for much the same reason as Arsenal. With the Champions League making a return, Guardiola’s squad will be stretched at a time when resources seem surprisingly limited.

Saturday’s home fixture with Leicester is followed four days later by a knockout stage first leg in Basel, before City travel to Wigan on a Monday night for their fifth round FA Cup tie.

There will surley be a weakened team fielded for that match-up, given that City will then meet Arsenal at Wembley six days later in the Carabao Cup final. However, the result against Wigan is crucial for Fantasy managers: if they get taken to a replay, City will lose the Gameweek 28 fixture at the Emirates, and further fixture congestion will follow over the run-in.

Even if that remains intact, their busy schedule is worrying. Guardiola’s men will follow the Thursday night visit to the Emirates with a home fixture with Chelsea just three days later.

In turn, that will be followed by the second leg against Basel, three days on.

The trip to Stoke City could be profitable in Gameweek 30, though that may depend on their progress in the FA Cup and their possible quarter-final opponent, given they face the Potters on the Monday night prior to a potential cup tie.

So rotation over this period looks almost certain.

That being said, injuries to Leroy Sane and Gabriel Jesus may protect Raheem Sterling and Sergio Aguero to some extent, although fatigue could then be a factor.

Nicolas Otamendi is among the most sold defenders ahead of Gameweek 27 and, based on both the schedule and Guardiola’s options at centre-back, a loss of confidence in the Argentine seems justified.

He has started the last 14 matches in all competitions, while City have kept just two clean sheets in eight matches, and one in their previous five in the Premier League.

Longer term, Gameweek 31 is a major issue for City given that both they and their scheduled opponents, Brighton, still remain in the FA Cup.

City would need to go out to Wigan and the Seagulls to Coventry City at the Amex for the Gameweek 31 fixture to go ahead. A blank looks almost certain, then.

After that, City face a trip to Everton, a ground where they have struggled in recent seasons, followed by daunting fixtures with Manchester United and Spurs.

Then comes a possible blank due to their potential involvement in an FA Cup semi-final.

All in all, this looks a treacherous period to own more than one City asset.

Heavy investment could come again for the double Gameweeks during the run-in which look assured.

However, at that point we have to question just how difficult it will be to pinpoint a City asset destined for back-to-back league fixtures.

The latter stages of the FA Cup and Champions League could be a major factor in Guardiola’s selection policy, along with the likelihood that the title may well be sewn up.

City would likely face a double-header in Gameweek 34 along with their current fixture at Spurs. The more attractive double could come in Gameweek 37 coupled with a home tie with Huddersfield.

But, as mentioned, rotation and motivation will surely be significant factors by that point.

Chelsea (WBA mun mci CRY bur TOT)
A turbulent period for the champions coincides with a testing schedule.

Certainly, Monday’s home clash with West Bromwich Albion looks vital to them rediscovering form and confidence, and also for Antonio Conte’s job security.

The showdown with the Baggies is followed by daunting trips to United and City.

The Blues will play both Hull City in the FA Cup and Barcelona in the Champions League before facing United, though it’s surely unlikely that Conte, if still in charge at that point, will risk rotation for what will be a grudge match with adversary Jose Mourinho.

Seven days then separate the trip to City, who will be far more likely to be fatigued given their potential Thursday clash with Arsenal, something that could work in the Blues’ favour in Gameweek 29.

But the home fixture with Palace – while on paper very favourable – is troublesome in Fantasy terms because it falls four days before the second leg with Barcelona. This surely makes it a major hotspot for rotation, with the likes of Eden Hazard and Marcos Alonso likely to be among those most at risk.

Beyond this, Chelsea will only play their Gameweek 31 fixture if they suffer defeat to Hull City in the FA Cup, so a home meeting with Spurs in Gameweek 32 would then be their next outing.

All things considered, once Gameweek 27 has passed, there appears little reason to hold onto Chelsea assets, with Alonso perhaps the only player to consider preserving through this spell.

We will likely want to revisit from Gameweek 33 onwards, particularly with a potential double-header in Gameweek 34 alongside their existing trip to Southampton.

However, the Gameweek 35 home fixture with Huddersfield could be lost to an FA semi-final, setting up a second double in Gameweek 37 when the Blues host Liverpool.

Stoke City (BHA lei sot MCI EVE ars TOT)
While the Potters are currently on the radar as one of only four teams guaranteed to play in Gameweek 31, they come packaged with a caveat.

Their fixtures to follow that convenient trip to Everton seem likely to restrict returns from that point, with goals and clean sheets perhaps unlikely at Arsenal and at home to Spurs.

This should temper our investment somewhat, making it important to consider these two Gameweeks to ensure we can potentially afford to bench any Stoke options.

This won’t be an issue for those avoiding Stoke assets to use the Free Hit chip in Gameweek 31, or indeed perhaps those planning on reserving the Free Hit for Gameweek 35, deploying the Wildcard in either Gameweek 32 or 33.

However, if you’re without your Free Hit chip and are ploughing through Gameweek 31 by stocking up on Paul Lambert’s assets, you should be wary of what’s to come.

Indeed, Potters players will surely be shifted out for the double Gameweek period.

Their Gameweek 35 fixture with Burnley will go ahead as both teams are out of the FA Cup, with Stoke assets, therefore, missing out on any double Gameweeks.