The best and worst FPL fixture runs in the next six Gameweeks

Our regular look at the Premier League fixture list from a Fantasy perspective returns for the 2018/19 season.

In this feature, we assess the top-flight clubs with the strongest and weakest runs of league matches over the coming weeks and offer our thoughts on the stand-out Fantasy assets from each of the sides discussed.

Although our primary focus will be on a six-Gameweek lookahead, we will scrutinise the long-term fixtures beyond that point where relevant.

The Strong

Arsenal

Next six: WHU, cdf, new, EVE, WAT, ful

And then: LEI, cpl

Possible turning point: LIV (Gameweek 11)

Gameweeks 1 and 2 were something of an Arsenal audition for many of us, with a high percentage of Fantasy Premier League bosses swerving the double-header against Manchester City and Chelsea given the calibre of the opposition and the fact that the club had a new manager at the helm in the form of Unai Emery.

Gameweek 3 marks the start of a six-match run that offers plenty of encouragement for the Gunners’ FPL assets, however.

Arsenal begin this sequence of fixtures with the visit of West Ham United, who conceded more away goals in the top flight last season (at an average of 2.21 goals per match) than any other Premier League club. The Hammers have started this season in much the same manner, shipping four goals at Anfield on the opening weekend of the 2018/19 campaign. Alexandre Lacazette (£9.4m) scored a brace when the two sides met in north London in April, the Gunners running out 4-1 winners.

Everton and Watford will, based on current form, provide stiffer tests than they offered last season, with both clubs having been comprehensively beaten at the Emirates (5-1 and 3-0) earlier this year.

Arsenal’s form on the road was only the 11th-best in the division last season and reached a nadir with a run of six consecutive defeats towards the end of the 2017/18 campaign. The away-day hoodoo was, at least, put to bed in Arsene Wenger’s final match in charge and, after coming close to leaving Stamford Bridge with a point on Saturday, the Gunners now face three rather more inviting away matches before the second international break of the season in October.

Cardiff City, Newcastle United and Fulham have scored only two goals between them so far this season, with the Bluebirds managing just one shot on target in their 180 minutes of league action. Slavisa Jokanovic’s side, meanwhile, have conceded more attempts on target (21) than any other Premier League side in the opening two Gameweeks.

Despite this sequence of half-dozen matches that the Gunners are about to enjoy (Emery’s side rank better than any other “big six” side on our Season Ticker), faith in their FPL assets is limited.

Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang (£11.0m) has suffered a net transfer loss of over 80,000 managers since the Gameweek 2 deadline passed, with Sergio Aguero’s availability in the same price bracket likely to be the primary reason for the mass-desertion. That the Gabonese forward has only had three penalty box touches in 180 minutes this season is cause for concern, of course, particularly as he has been deployed centrally – rather than on the left of the front three – for Arsenal’s opening two matches.

Hector Bellerin (£5.5m) is currently the fifth-most sold defender ahead of Gameweek 3, meanwhile, after successive one-point returns. He and Aubameyang are two of just three Arsenal players with an FPL ownership of 10% or more, so the Gunners’ unfavoured Fantasy assets could prove to be explosive differentials (of sorts) over the next two months.

The other Arsenal player who can boast a double-digit ownership is Henrikh Mkhitaryan (£7.1m), whose popularity is very much on the increase after his goal-and-assist return in the 3-2 defeat to Chelsea.

The three players mentioned immediately above are the obvious Arsenal targets for the next six Gameweeks, given that Mesut Ozil (£8.4m) has so far flattered to deceive under Emery, and both Lacazette and Aaron Ramsey (£7.5m) have spent more minutes on the bench than on the pitch.

Having seemingly nailed down his position between the sticks, Petr Cech (£5.0m) offers a cut-price route into the Arsenal defence, although only Huddersfield have conceded more shots on goal than the Gunners in the opening two Gameweeks. Bellerin, at least, offers the potential of attacking returns if a clean sheet fails to materialise, having had more touches in the final third than any Premier League defender in 2017/18.

Aubameyang’s early-season struggles might be the calm before the storm, meanwhile: the former Borussia Dortmund striker scored ten goals in his 13 appearances for the Gunners towards the end of last season.

Manchester City

Next six: wlv, NEW, FUL, cdf, BHA, liv

Possible turning point: liv (Gameweek 8)

If City’s first two league performances of the season are anything to go by, the next five Gameweeks could be a points bonanza for the league champions’ FPL assets.

As owners of Leroy Sane (£9.4m), Kyle Walker (£6.5m), Raheem Sterling (£11.0m) and Riyad Mahrez (£9.0m) will attest, however, picking the right combination of players to minimise the risk of rotation is another matter.

City’s next five opponents were all Championship rivals two seasons ago and the 6-1 demolition of Huddersfield Town on Sunday is an ominous warning to this quintet of clubs.

Newcastle kept only two clean sheets on the road in 2017/18, while Brighton had the worst overall away record in the top flight last season.

The three most-recently promoted clubs will all pose different challenges, but the fact that City have comfortably had more shots on target this season (22) than Wolves, Fulham and Cardiff combined bodes well for a goal glut that many of us are longing for between now and the end of September.

The Gameweek 7 encounter with Liverpool marks the start of a run of fixtures in which Guardiola’s side play the three other clubs in last season’s top four in the space of five Gameweeks, but many will consider the Sky Blues’ FPL assets to be fixture-proof regardless given the nature of their performances at the Emirates and in the Community Shield against Chelsea a week earlier.

Benjamin Mendy (£6.2m) and Sergio Aguero (£11.1m) are the most-owned players in their respective positions and any FPL manager going without either will face a nervy few Gameweeks, even accounting for the constant rotation risk that plagues Guardiola’s unpredictable team selections.

What to do with the third City slot is another matter entirely. Ederson (£5.5m) is the only real risk-free purchase, particularly given the injury suffered to deputy Claudio Bravo (£5.0m) in recent days.

Bernardo Silva (£7.6m) and Fernandinho (£5.5m) are the only two City midfielders to play the full 180 minutes of City’s league campaign, though lack the explosive quality that many FPL managers will seek out for this run of fixtures. While Mahrez, Sterling, Sane and David Silva (£8.4m) are capable of doing just that, each have had their minutes managed in the opening two Gameweeks.

With four top-class centre-backs for Guardiola to choose from, the City defence is an equally hazardous route.

Crystal Palace

Next six: wat, SOU, new, HUD, bou, WLV

Possible turning point: eve (Gameweek 9)

With the Gameweek 2 encounter against Liverpool out of the way, Crystal Palace are set to enjoy the best run of fixtures between now and Gameweek 8 of any Premier League side – at least, according to our Season Ticker.

Newcastle are the Eagles’ only opposition in the next six Gameweeks who finished in the top ten last season, with the visits of Southampton, Huddersfield and Wolves to Selhurst Park looking particularly ripe for FPL investment.

The Gameweek 3 encounter at Watford might well indeed end up being the toughest test in this sequence of half-dozen fixtures, with the Hornets having won both of their opening matches and conceded fewer shots on target than any other Premier League club. Only five clubs had more attempts on goal than Watford in Gameweeks 1 and 2, meanwhile.

No club outside the “big six” have had more efforts on target than Palace, though, with Fulham custodian Fabri the busiest FPL goalkeeper in Gameweek 1 when up against Roy Hodgson’s side.

Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) has been prominent in the opposition box in the first two Gameweeks of 2018/19 (only Callum Wilson and Aguero having more touches in the penalty area among FPL forwards) and is by far Palace’s most popular Fantasy asset, sitting in 31.7% of FPL squads.

Only Swansea City conceded more penalties than Watford, Huddersfield and Newcastle (six each) last season, so Luka Milivojevic‘s (£6.4m) ever-diminishing owners will retain high hopes of a spot-kick award or two in the coming months: the Serbian midfielder, indeed, scored against all four of Palace’s Gameweeks 4 to 7 opponents in 2017/18.

Owners of Aaron Wan-Bissaka (£4.1m) will be hoping that understudy Joel Ward (£4.5m) doesn’t perform too well during the former’s one-match ban at Vicarage Road, given the favourable fixtures that follow the trip to Watford.

The Eagles have recorded five shut-outs in their last ten league fixtures and the clean sheet prospects of Palace’s other defenders look excellent between now and the October international break. From goal threat to bonus point potential, Patrick van Aanholt (£5.5m), Mamadou Sakho (£5.0m) and James Tomkins (£4.5m) offer their FPL owners something other than routine clean sheet points and each defender deserves to be considered for this appealing run of fixtures.

Jeffrey Schlupp‘s (£4.5m) deployment “out of position” in the first two Gameweeks was eye-catching, but the threat of the fit-again Max Meyer (£5.9m) looms large and there has to be doubt over Schlupp’s security of starts in the coming weeks.

Palace’s trip to Everton in Gameweek 9 precedes a run of fixtures in which the Eagles face Arsenal, Chelsea, Spurs and Manchester United, so we could see a mass Fantasy exodus of Palace assets at this point.

Everton

Next six: bou, HUD, WHU, ars, FUL, lei

And then: CRY

Possible turning point: mun (Gameweek 10)

With home fixtures against Huddersfield, West Ham and Fulham in the next five Gameweeks, Everton assets are worthy of consideration in the medium term. The Toffees, indeed, then go on to play Crystal Palace, Brighton, Cardiff, Newcastle and Watford at Goodison Park, not facing any one of the “big six” at home until mid-December.

Their future tests on the road are somewhat daunting, however, with Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City entertaining Marco Silva’s men between Gameweeks 10 and 17.

Until that point, however, Richarlison (£6.8m) and co remain at the forefront of our thoughts. All three of Everton’s next opponents at Goodison currently lie in the bottom three (for what the Premier League table is worth at this early stage) with Huddersfield and West Ham’s defences the most porous in the division, conceding 15 goals between them in the first two Gameweeks of the campaign.

Richarlison’s form is hard to look past, though it must be noted that his three goals have come from just four attempts on goal – a sharp contrast to his run of 26 appearances and 53 shots without a goal for Watford after Gameweek 12 of last season.

Gylfi Sigurdsson‘s (£7.4m) popularity and price has suffered as a result of Richarlison’s early-season returns, though no FPL player created more chances for his team-mates in Gameweek 2 than the Icelandic midfielder.

While Sigurdsson and Theo Walcott (£6.5m) were excellent in the Toffees’ 2-1 win over Southampton, the deadline-day signing of versatile attacking midfielder Bernard (£6.0m) does put some doubt over their security of starts in the medium term.

While Leighton Baines (£5.5m) appears to have seen off Lucas Digne‘s (£4.9m) challenge at left-back for the time being, Seamus Coleman (£5.5m) is perhaps the only member of Everton’s back four who is rotation-proof in the medium term, with Yerry Mina (£5.5m) and Kurt Zouma‘s (£5.0m) arrivals complicating the picture at centre-back. Coleman’s season was ravaged by injury last year but he still managed as many penalty box touches in 12 appearances as Baines registered in 22 starts.

Chelsea

Next six: new, BOU, CDF, whu, LIV, sou

Possible turning point: LIV (Gameweek 7)

The Gameweek 4 and 5 double-header at Stamford Bridge always looked the likely target for Chelsea assets, not just because of the calibre of the opposition in those matches but also due to the fact there was so much uncertainty about how the Blues would line up and adjust to Maurizio Sarri’s new regime in the first few weeks of the season.

Two wins and six goals later, Chelsea’s FPL assets have become all-the-more appealing.

There has to be a caveat around the trip to Newcastle in Gameweek 3, given that the Blues have failed to win in five attempts at St. James’ Park and that the Magpies were unfortunate not to gain a point from their opening-day loss to Spurs.

Bournemouth, meanwhile, ended Chelsea’s eight-match unbeaten run last season with a 3-0 win at Stamford Bridge in late-January, while West Ham beat the Blues 1-0 in this corresponding fixture in 2017/18.

This is, of course, a different Chelsea side to the one that laboured under Antonio Conte last season.

Manchester City are the only side to create more chances than Chelsea so far this campaign, with the Blues trailing only City and Spurs by way of shots attempted.

Marcos Alonso (£6.6m) is behind only Sadio Mane in terms of FPL points and is now the second-most owned defender in the game after consecutive double-digit hauls.

Four Blues players also feature in the top ten most-bought midfielders of this round, with N’Golo Kante (£5.0m) sitting in more than one in five FPL squads after his cavalier early-season performances.

Alonso aside, Pedro (£6.6m) and Eden Hazard (£10.5m) are perhaps the most attractive options for this run of fixtures. Stationed on the right wing and scoring in back-to-back matches, Pedro would seem under less threat than Willian (£7.5m) on the opposite flank from Hazard’s imminent return to the starting XI. Hazard, meanwhile, seems to be building up match-fitness just in time for this double-header at Stamford Bridge. The Belgian has registered two assists in the same number of substitute appearances and has created as many chances as any of his team-mates in just 43 minutes of action.

Chelsea face tougher-looking fixtures against Liverpool and Manchester United in Gameweeks 7 and 9, but both of those matches, at least, are at home.

Also Consider

Burnley (ful, MUN, wlv, BOU, cdf, HUD) face all three of the promoted Championship clubs in their next three away matches, with appetising home fixtures to come against Bournemouth and Huddersfield too. Given what happened at the Amex Stadium last weekend, the visit of Manchester United needn’t be an encounter to fear either. The issue with the Clarets, of course, is their European commitments. Sean Dyche’s side face a two-legged play-off against Olympiakos today and next Thursday, and the 3-1 home defeat to Watford last Sunday is perhaps an early warning that their Premier League campaign will be affected by their exploits on the continent.

A home match against Spurs in Gameweek 3 is Manchester United’s (TOT, bur, wat, WLV, whu, NEW) toughest test from now until Gameweek 9, though this is a match that Jose Mourinho’s side have won 1-0 for three successive seasons. Trips to Burnley and Watford are far from straightforward either, though the visit of Wolves and Newcastle in Gameweeks 6 and 8 offer plenty of encouragement for owners of United’s FPL assets. A 3-2 defeat to Brighton last weekend, however, has dented their appeal: United have conceded as many league goals after two matches as they had after their first nine fixtures last season.

With two wins from two, Bournemouth (EVE, che, LEI, bur, CRY, wat) and their assets are worthy of consideration for the next half-dozen matches. The Cherries were undefeated in all six of these corresponding fixtures last season, the highlight, of course, being the 3-0 win at Stamford Bridge in January. Callum Wilson (£6.1m) has had more penalty box touches and big chances than any FPL forward this season.

The Weak

Newcastle United

Next six: CHE, mci, ARS, cry, LEI, mun

Possible turning point: BHA (Gameweek 9)

One down, four to go. After hosting Spurs in Gameweek 1, Rafael Benitez’s side now face another four of the “big six” clubs in their next half-dozen matches. The Chelsea and Arsenal home fixtures were ones that the Magpies won last season, though both London clubs now have new managers at the helm after seasons of stagnation.

Newcastle had the best defensive record outside of the top seven last season and high-scoring humiliations wouldn’t appear to be a likely prospect given how well-organised Benitez’s troops are, though it should be said that United conceded on seven occasions on their two trips to Manchester last season.

Only three clubs have conceded fewer shots on target than Newcastle this season, but a more worrying statistic would be that just two sides have allowed their opposition more big chances.

Despite ranking seventh for attempts on goal and fifth for shots in the box after Gameweek 2, Newcastle have found the back of the net only once. A Joselu-led (£5.0m) attack won’t strike fear into the hearts of their forthcoming opposition, while new signing Salomon Rondon (£6.0m) – along with Joselu – had a goal conversion rate of under 10% last season.

Kenedy (£5.0m) will also miss the match against parent club Chelsea this weekend.

The home fixture against Brighton in Gameweek 9 begins a run of ten league fixtures in which the Magpies don’t encounter any of the “big six”, so their assets are perhaps best avoided until after the October international break.

Cardiff City

Next six: hud, ARS, che, MCI, BUR, tot

And then: FUL, liv

Possible turning point: LEI (Gameweek 11)

A trip to Huddersfield Town represents Cardiff’s best chance of a first win of the 2018/19 season before their fixtures take a nosedive in the following Gameweeks.

Five of the “big six” follow in the subsequent seven Gameweeks, and with Cardiff the only top-flight club yet to score this season, the omens aren’t particularly good.

The Bluebirds, indeed, have only had one shot on target in 180 minutes and Neil Warnock’s frustration at being unable to sign a prolific centre-forward over the summer means that the burden of responsibility will likely fall on Kenneth Zohore (£4.9m) until January at the earliest. Zohore scored a modest nine goals in Cardiff’s promotion-winning season and failed to make Martin Dubravka work on a single occasion last Saturday despite having four shots inside the box.

The hope from a Cardiff perspective is that the likes of Manchester City and Spurs might be distracted by their Champions League exertions by the time their matches against the Welsh club come around, although the fact that not a single Cardiff player is owned by more than 4% of FPL managers says much about the faith in Warnock’s side.

Neil Etheridge (£4.5m), at least, can expect plenty of save points over the coming half-dozen matches and beyond.

Liverpool

Next six: BHA, lei, tot, SOU, che, MCI

Possible turning point: hud (Gameweek 9)

With Sadio Mane (£9.8m) and Andrew Robertson (£6.0m) in impressive early-season form and the 54%-owned Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) delivering back-to-back attacking returns, would we dare ditch one or more of our Liverpool assets from, perhaps, Gameweeks 5 to 9?

The Reds face Spurs and Chelsea away before hosting Manchester City during that spell, a period that will also see Jurgen Klopp’s side begin their Champions League group campaign.

Liverpool are the only side to record back-to-back clean sheets this season and their professional job in emerging from a tricky-looking encounter at Crystal Palace on Monday night with three points was as impressive as their opening-weekend demolition of West Ham.

The fact remains, though, that there are other premium assets in the price brackets of the players mentioned above (plus the likes of Alisson (£5.5m), Virgil van Dijk (£6.0m) and Roberto Firmino (£9.5m)) who enjoy a much better run of fixtures during the Reds’ tricky spell.

Should Eden Hazard, Harry Kane or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang suddenly embark on an irresistible run of form, then trading in the likes of Mane or Salah would be an “easy” way of freeing up the funds for those premium picks.

Liverpool lost both their away league meetings with Spurs and Chelsea last season, though did put City to the sword in a 4-3 win at Anfield. Salah, indeed, scored five goals in six appearances against these three sides in 2017/18.

That Klopp’s side have impressed in their two league matches so far would make that decision all-the-more tough. No side have had more “big chances” than the Reds, who are the only top-flight side who haven’t conceded a single clear-cut opportunity to their opposition this season.

Also Consider

Watford (CRY, TOT, MUN, ful, ars, BOU) face three of the “big six” in their next half-dozen matches, although the knock-on effect of Spurs’ stadium construction means that four of those fixtures will be at Vicarage Road. The Hornets have been quietly impressive this season, too, and have conceded the fewest number of shots on target of any Premier League club this campaign. With an out-of-sorts Manchester United to come in Gameweek 5 and the Spurs match now on home soil, Watford’s fixture list is perhaps not quite as daunting as first thought.

Brighton (liv, FUL, sou, TOT, mci, WHU) are something of a Jekyll-and-Hyde team, with their away-day blues – their form on the road being the league’s worst last season – not boding well for trips to Liverpool, Southampton and Manchester City in the next five Gameweeks. The visit of Spurs will test their undoubted strength at the Amex, but the skies brighten from Gameweek 8 onwards – the Seagulls then face a run of nine matches without meeting any of the “big six”.

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