Our regular “frisk” of the Premier League fixture list from a Fantasy perspective returns ahead of Gameweek 9.
In this article, we assess the top-flight clubs with the strongest and weakest runs of league matches over the coming weeks and offer our thoughts on the stand-out Fantasy Premier League assets from each of the sides discussed.
Although our primary focus will be on a six-Gameweek lookahead, we will scrutinise the long-term fixtures beyond that point where relevant.
The Strong
Newcastle United
Next six: BHA, sou, WAT, BOU, bur, WHA
And then: eve WOL hud FUL
Possible turning point: LIV (Gameweek 19)
Get used to seeing Newcastle United’s name in this fortnightly frisk of the forthcoming Premier League fixtures, as the Magpies don’t face another “big six” side until Boxing Day.
Rafael Benitez’s troops have endured the toughest run of matches out of all 20 top-flight sides up until this point but unlike Brighton and Hove Albion – more of whom below – have offered little in the way of incentive for us Fantasy managers ahead of this ten-match sequence.
Certainly from an attacking point of view, the Magpies have looked anaemic, and have registered fewer attempts on goal than the other 19 Premier League sides.
There were glimpses of promise in the 3-2 defeat to Manchester United, however, with Kenedy (£4.9m) returning to some semblance of form after an indifferent opening two months of the season.
Yoshinori Muto (£5.7m), like Kenedy, was also on the scoresheet and led the line well for the Magpies on his first start, though along with his budget Brazilian team-mate picked up a knock in that defeat at Old Trafford and will be assessed ahead of the weekend.
Five of the nine clubs who have conceded 17 or more big chances in the Premier League this season await Benitez’s troops in the coming six Gameweeks.
Brighton are next up for Newcastle, with the Seagulls having allowed more shots in the box in away league matches this season than all top-flight clubs except Fulham.
The defence is probably where any investment in Newcastle’s assets will be, with DeAndre Yedlin (£4.5m) perhaps the stand-out candidate given that he is available at a more reasonable price than the likes of Jamaal Lascelles (£4.8m) and Martin Dubravka (£5.0m).
Two of Newcastle’s three meetings with sides outside of the “big six” have resulted in clean sheets for the Magpies and the visit of Brighton – the joint-lowest scorers away from home in 2017/18 – represents an excellent chance to add to that tally of shut-outs, with Chris Hughton’s side having recorded fewer shots on target in away fixtures than the 19 other Premier League clubs this season.
Southampton, Newcastle’s subsequent opponents, haven’t scored in their last three league matches and have the second-worst goal conversion rate in the Premier League this season.
Brighton and Hove Albion
Next six: new, WOL, eve, car, LEI, hud
And then: CRY, bur
Possibly turning point: CHE (Gameweek 17)
There is no doubt that Chris Hughton will be looking at this Saturday’s meeting with his former employers as a favourable fixture too, given that the Magpies have registered fewer attempts on goal than all other top-flight clubs this season – albeit against some seriously difficult opposition.
Four of Brighton’s next six opponents rank in the bottom seven for goal conversion, including Wolves, who despite their impressive run of form are only scoring at a rate of 1.13 goals per match this season.
Despite being notoriously poor travellers, three of Brighton’s next four away matches at least give the Seagulls a serious chance of recording further clean sheets: Newcastle, Cardiff and Huddersfield sit in the bottom three for big chances created.
Shane Duffy (£4.5m) is perhaps the stand-out pick in defence, coupling as he does clean sheet potential with attacking threat, though it is somewhat ironic that he already has two goals to his name this season despite posting poorer underlying numbers than he did in a barren 2017/18.
Five of Brighton’s next six opponents are conceding at a rate of 1.5 goals or worse per game, meanwhile, providing encouragement for those sitting on – or thinking about acquiring – assets such as Glenn Murray (£6.6m) and Anthony Knockaert (£5.5m).
Liverpool
Next six: hud, CAR, ars, FUL, wat, EVE
And then: bur, bou
Possible turning point: MUN (Gameweek 17)
Two Gameweeks is a long time in Fantasy football. Ahead of Gameweek 7, Liverpool sat in the “weak” section of our fixtures frisk.
Now the Reds have been catapulted towards the top of our Season Ticker and the outlook is rosy for their attacking options – other than the irritating injuries picked up over the international break, of course.
Liverpool’s next four opponents rank in the bottom half of the table for shots in the box and shots on target conceded.
Fulham have yet to keep a league clean sheet, while the only team Huddersfield have stopped from scoring is Cardiff City. The Bluebirds’ two shut-outs were against the Terriers and Newcastle, meanwhile, and Neil Warnock’s side have conceded an average of 3.25 goals per game in four meetings with “big six” clubs this campaign.
From a defensive perspective, Liverpool’s next two opponents have registered the fewest shots on target in the Premier League this season.
All four of the teams they face between now and the November international break sit in the bottom half of the table for shots in the box, too.
Only Manchester City have conceded fewer shots in the box and shots on target than Liverpool this season, so the likes of Andrew Robertson (£6.3m) and Virgil van Dijk (£5.9m) seem likely to add to the five clean sheets they have already banked in the coming month.
Leicester City
Next six: ars, WHU, car, BUR, bha, WAT
And then: ful
Possible turning point: TOT (Gameweek 16)
A second successive appearance in our “frisk” for the Foxes, who enjoy a run of six eminently winnable fixtures after the trip to the Emirates on Monday night.
Even that match shouldn’t hold any fear for the owners of Jamie Vardy (£9.0m) and James Maddison (£6.9m), with Arsenal having conceded more shots on target on their own turf than all bar three Premier League sides this season. No top-flight team has allowed more big chances at home than the Gunners, either.
Indeed, six of Leicester’s next seven opponents rank in the bottom half-dozen teams for shots on target conceded.
West Ham, Cardiff, Burnley, Brighton, Watford and Fulham also sit in in the bottom nine clubs for most big chances conceded.
Leicester’s backline hasn’t really convinced from a goals conceded point of view but the Foxes’ underlying defensive statistics are actually quietly impressive: Claude Puel’s side feature in the top eight for all of the KPIs listed in our half-term report.
What’s more, six of their next seven opponents rank in the lower half of the table for attempts in the opposition box – including Arsenal.
The next five teams to face Leicester in the Premier League are also in the bottom ten for big chances created.
Ben Chilwell (£5.0m) and Harry Maguire (£5.5m), then, look like decent punts for the coming six Gameweeks.
Also Consider
You’d be hard pushed to find many Fantasy managers wanting to take a gamble on Cardiff City (FUL, liv, LEI, BHA, eve, WOL) and Huddersfield Town (LIV, wat, FUL, WHU, wol, BHA) assets over the coming weeks but the two sides have several things in common: they both have four home matches in the next six, they both entertain Fulham and Brighton during that period and they both only face Liverpool of the “big six” between now and Gameweek 16.
Given that the pair have had fewer shots on target than all 18 other Premier League sides, however, interest in their attacking assets is likely to be minimal. Only Fulham (21) have conceded more goals than the two relegation favourites (17), too, so there would have to be a leap of faith with their respective defences.
Josh Murphy (£4.8m) – who has had nine attempts on goal in the last two Gameweeks – is perhaps the stand-out name for Cardiff, while Huddersfield Town’s Chris Lowe (£4.4m) has delivered more successful crosses than any FPL defender in the last four Gameweeks.
West Ham United (TOT, lei, BUR, hud, MCI, new) will feature more prominently in our next frisk of the fixtures, with their run of matches from Gameweeks 14-21 looking particularly attractive and Marko Arnautovic (£7.0m) on our radar.
Short-termists will also perhaps consider Watford‘s (wol, HUD, new, sou) and Fulham‘s (car, BOU, hud) four- and three-match runs respectively before their fixtures take something of a nosedive. Four of their next six games are away from home, though.
The Weak
Crystal Palace
Next six: eve, ARS, che, TOT, mun, BUR
Possible turning point: BUR (Gameweek 14)
Palace had the weakest Premier League fixture run in our last frisk and little has changed, with their four matches from Gameweek 10 onwards looking particularly uninviting.
Perhaps only Aaron Wan-Bissaka (£4.3m), whose favourable price makes him a “benchable” option during this tricky spell, will survive the widespread cull of Palace assets between now and December, with better options unquestionably existing than assets such as Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) and Patrick van Aanholt (£5.5m).
The Eagles’ next five opponents sit in the top seven for shots on target this season, with this quintet also being among the nine teams who have scored the most league goals in 2018/19.
There is a glimmer of hope for Palace’s attacking assets, though: Arsenal, Spurs, Manchester United and Burnley sit 16th, joint-10th, 12th and joint-17th for shots on target conceded this campaign (where 20th is the most chances allowed).
Tottenham Hotspur
Next six: whu, MCI, wol, cry, CHE, ars
Possible turning point: SOU (Gameweek 15)
Just as Liverpool’s fixtures have taken a dramatic turn for the better since our last frisk, Tottenham’s have fallen away to the point that the Lilywhites now appear in this “weak section”.
Spurs’ only two home fixtures during the next half-dozen Gameweeks are against Manchester City and Chelsea, while three of their away matches are London derbies and the other is against high-flying Wolves.
City and Wolves have conceded the least number of big chances in the Premier League this season, which doesn’t perhaps auger well for Harry Kane (£12.5m) and his owners. Chelsea rank third for least shots on target conceded, meanwhile.
City, Arsenal and Chelsea are the three highest-scoring teams in the division this season and will pose a considerable threat to a defence set to be missing Jan Vertonghen (£5.9m) for an extended period and ranking mid-table for various defensive KPIs, despite a relatively easy start to the season.
Manchester United
Next six: che, EVE, bou, mci, CRY, sou
And then: ARS, FUL, liv
Possible turning point: car (Gameweek 18)
Away matches at Chelsea, Bournemouth and Manchester City – three of the four teams who have created the most big chances this season – between now and the November international break prompted our withdrawal of Luke Shaw (£5.1m) from the Watchlist yesterday.
United’s defence have kept only one clean sheet this season and have conceded more shots on target than 11 teams. Surprisingly for a side so watertight in 2017/18, just three Premier League clubs have shipped more goals than the Red Devils so far this campaign.
Five of United’s next six opponents are in the top nine for fewest shots on target conceded, too, which further dents the ever-dwindling appeal of Paul Pogba (£8.1m) and Romelu Lukaku (£10.9m).
Also Consider
Arsenal (LEI, cry, LIV, WOL, bou, TOT) may have four home fixtures in the next six Gameweeks but they are all against teams in the top half of the table, with a trip to sixth-place Bournemouth also on the horizon.
Five of their next half-dozen opponents are in the top six for fewest big chances conceded.
Everton (CRY, mun, BHA, che, CAR, liv) are a Jekyll-and-Hyde case between now and Gameweek 17 inclusive – top of our Season Ticker for home fixtures, bottom for away matches.
Both Manchester clubs, Chelsea and Liverpool entertain the Toffees between now and mid-December, but Crystal Palace, Brighton, Cardiff, Newcastle and Watford all visit Goodison Park during that run.
The frustration from a Fantasy point of view is that there are few Everton assets in the “benchable” price bracket, though those five home matches are surely too good to overlook for those who own/are considering owning Richarlison (£6.8m), Gylfi Sigurdsson (£7.4m) et al.
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5 years, 6 months agoKane -> Aguero or save?