Last week, we examined the minutes played by Manchester City players and Crystal Palace, Fulham and Cardiff City assets over their last eight matches with one eye on which Fantasy options stand the best chance of playing both fixtures in Double Gameweek 32.
Next up are three special cases: Wolverhampton Wanderers, Watford and Brighton and Hove Albion.
All three of these sides face an FA Cup quarter-final just days after their second Gameweek 32 fixture, making any forecasts about game-time that bit more difficult.
Wolves and Watford’s starting XIs will be especially tough to predict, with those two clubs safely ensconced in seventh and eighth position in the Premier League table and having little of note to play for in their remaining top-flight games.
Certainly, both Nuno Espirito Santo and Javi Gracia have previous when it comes to rotation – be it directly linked to the FA Cup or when the fixtures pile up in general.
The Watford head coach made seven changes to his Gameweek 30 starting XI a week before their FA Cup quarter-final against Palace, while Santo has previously discussed his selection policy when Wolves face a three-game week: quotes from those two managers and further discussion on how the FA Cup semi-finals may affect Gameweek 32 can be read here.
Brighton have a Premier League relegation scrap to be fighting, of course, so changes might not quite be so wholesale when the Seagulls face Southampton and Chelsea days before they take on Manchester City at Wembley.
With rotation anticipated at Watford and Wolves regardless, we won’t go into quite the same amount of detail as we did with Palace and Manchester City in our previous pieces.
Instead, we will just look at the starts, appearances and minutes played for each club using data from our Members’ Area.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Wolves’ first-team picture would be a fairly straightforward one were it not for the FA Cup semi-final complicating proceedings.
The first 11 names on the list above effectively make up Nuno Espirito Santo’s go-to starting XI.
Romain Saiss (£4.2m) has filled in for Ryan Bennett (£4.1m) while the latter has been suspended but it could be that the Moroccan has usurped Bennett at centre-back, as it was Saiss who played in the FA Cup quarter-final against Manchester United while his hitherto first-choice team-mate sat on the bench.
Bennett returns from his two-match league ban in the second of Wolves’ Gameweek 32 fixtures, so may see some pitch-time against Manchester United at Molineux next Tuesday.
Conor Coady (£4.5m) has played every single minute of Wolves’ Premier League campaign, while Willy Boly (£4.6m) has a 100% record when available: only a red card against Manchester City in Gameweek 22 and a subsequent ban tarnishing his ever-present status.
Rui Patricio (£4.5m) has only missed one match this season but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him drop to the bench for one of Wolves’ two Double Gameweek 32 fixtures: cup custodian John Ruddy (£4.2m) having been kept ticking over with an appearance against Cardiff in Gameweek 29 ahead of the FA Cup quarter-finals.
Matt Doherty (£5.4m), Jonny (£4.3m), Ruben Neves (£4.9m) and Joao Moutinho (£5.3m) may be at risk from the likes of Adam Traore (£5.1m), Ruben Vinagre (£4.3m) and Morgan Gibbs-White (£4.3m) in either of the games against Burnley or United – as happened in Gameweek 29 – but defensive midfielder Leander Dendoncker (£4.3m) has started the last nine Premier League matches in a row and could be less prone to rotation: Santo might decide that the Belgian is fresh enough to play both Gameweek 32 matches given that he only made his full top-flight debut in Gameweek 20.
Raul Jimenez (£6.9m) and Diogo Jota (£6.1m) have started the last nine Premier League matches together and Jimenez indeed hasn’t been benched since Gameweek 16.
Managed game-time is therefore perhaps just as likely as a benching for the Mexico striker, while Jota is frequently packed in cotton wool and preserved by Santo: the Portugal international has been substituted in each of his last seven top-flight starts.
While it is correct to say that Jota started all three league matches in Gameweeks 27-29 (those matches separated by only eight days), the Portuguese midfielder was substituted after 46 minutes of the 2-0 win over Cardiff at the back-end of that fixture sequence.
Jota therefore arguably looks the more at risk from a benching in one of the two Double Gameweek 32 fixtures, although the possible understudies, Traore, Ivan Cavaleiro (£5.2m) and Helder Costa (£4.7m), have generally been used in a 3-4-3 rather than the 3-5-2 that Santo currently employs.
Watford
Of the first 13 names in the table above, only Andre Gray (£5.9m) and Tom Cleverley (£5.0m) are not considered first-choice picks for Watford.
Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.9m) missed three of the eight Gameweeks studied because of a knee problem and started the other five matches.
Indeed, when he has been available, Doucoure has only been benched in one Premier League fixture this season: the Gameweek 20 draw with Newcastle, which fell in the middle of the congested Christmas schedule.
Roberto Pereyra (£6.0m) and Jose Holebas (£4.8m) each missed two Gameweeks of the period analysed through injury and suspension, while Craig Cathcart (£4.5m) and Will Hughes (£4.9m) weren’t available in Gameweek 23 because of a knee injury and a concussion respectively.
Ben Foster (£4.6m) and Etienne Capoue (£4.8m) have started in each of the last eight Gameweeks and, if we discount the Gameweek 30 match against Manchester City when Gracia rotated with one eye on the FA Cup, Cathcart, Holebas, Hughes, Pereyra, Adrian Mariappa (£4.2m), Troy Deeney (£5.9m) and Gerard Deulofeu (£5.6m) have also started every match in which they have been available for selection from Gameweek 23 onwards.
Daryl Janmaat (£4.9m) has started the last seven Gameweeks, meanwhile, having reclaimed the right-back slot.
We thus have a pretty decent picture of what Gracia currently considers his first-choice starting XI: Foster, Janmaat, Mariappa, Cathcart, Holebas, Hughes, Doucoure, Capoue, Pereyra, Deeney, Deulofeu.
The problem is, of course, is that the Hornets’ head coach has showed he is not averse to making a raft of changes to his line-up when he deems it necessary.
Kiko Femenia (£4.2m), Miguel Britos (£4.2m), Christian Kabasele (£4.4m), Adam Masina (£4.3m), Tom Cleverley (£5.0m), Andre Gray (£5.9m) and Isaac Success (£4.6m) all benefitted from a rare start at the Etihad and it’s this core group of squad players, plus perhaps Domingos Quina (£4.4m) and Ken Sema (£4.6m), who may be called upon in either the trip to Old Trafford on Saturday or the home fixture against Fulham next Tuesday.
The frustration from a Fantasy perspective is that we don’t know which fixture (if any) Gracia will choose to roll out some changes: the visit of Fulham is nearer the FA Cup semi-final but would also be less exerting than a trip to Old Trafford, where the Hornets would likely be doing plenty of chasing without the ball.
With Gracia having a near-fully fit squad of 26 senior players and able to rotate in every position, selecting a Watford asset for Gameweek 32 carries obvious risks.
Brighton and Hove Albion
Brighton’s goalkeeper and back four look fairly settled based on the minutes above.
Shane Duffy (£4.7m), Martin Montoya (£4.3m) and Lewis Dunk (£4.4m) have started all of the Seagulls’ last eight league matches, while Mathew Ryan (£4.4m) was only absent for two of those games because of his participation in the Asian Cup.
Ryan, Duffy and Dunk have started every single league match this season in which they have eligible to play, regardless of fixture congestion or approaching FA Cup ties, while Montoya hasn’t missed a minute since Gameweek 16.
Gaetan Bong (£4.4m) played at left-back from Gameweeks 22-28 but Bernardo (£4.2m) has since replaced the Cameroon international in that position and started the last two.
Chris Hughton said on Wednesday:
I’m fortunate that I have got two good full-backs in Montoya and Bruno, he is still a very good level full-back. I have tended to go with a little more consistency in the back four, hence why Montoya and Bernardo
have played.
Davy Propper (£4.8m) and Dale Stephens (£4.3m) are similarly dependable in central midfield, with Stephens only absent in Gameweek 25 after injuring himself in the warm-up.
Propper, like Dunk and Duffy, has started every match in which he has been available for selection in 2018/19.
Pascal Gross‘s (£6.7m) run of 15 consecutive Premier League starts was only broken by a hamstring injury he picked up in Gameweek 28 and the German playmaker is still a major doubt for Gameweek 32.
He looks a possible mid-price midfield candidate to consider in Double Gameweeks 34 and 35, even if he has been substituted in 13 of his 18 league starts this season.
Yves Bissouma (£4.6m) has played both league matches in Gross’s most-recent absence.
While Glenn Murray (£6.3m) has started every Premier League game in 2019, the centre-forward role is perhaps not quite as settled as it seems.
Florin Andone (£5.0m) was set to line up against Palace in Gameweek 30 only for injury to strike in the warm-up, while the Romanian forward alternated starts with Murray in Gameweeks 15-21 when the fixtures piled up in December.
Andone is still a doubt for the visit of Southampton on Saturday but is not expected to be sidelined for much longer.
The two wide roles in Hughton’s 4-3-3 look the most unstable, with the Brighton boss now able to call upon Anthony Knockaert (£5.2m), Alireza Jahanbakhsh (£6.7m), Solly March (£4.8m), Jurgen Locadia (£5.3m) and Jose Izquierdo (£5.9m) in those two positions.
Knockaert and Jahanbakhsh have started the last two Premier League fixtures together and indeed lined up in the FA Cup quarter-final win over Millwall but it was the introduction of March, Locadia and Izquierdo that effectively swung the game in the Seagulls’ favour.
March and Locadia had started 14 and nine league matches in a row before losing their places in Gameweeks 29 and 28 respectively but it should be said that Jahanbakhsh and Izquierdo were injured for the bulk of that period.
Unlike Santo and Gracia, Hughton didn’t rotate heavily in the weeks leading up to the FA Cup quarter-finals – so Brighton assets (in defence and central midfield, at least) are perhaps the safer bets in terms of
5 years, 1 month ago80 points against my ML rival.
People talk about differentials but that word indicates a risk in itself.
No differential will make up the difference but what about TC Hazard instead of Kun?
My season could be over this time next week or I could make a serious dent in the points gap.
Is it worth the risk?