Spot the Differential

Doherty hinting at return to incredible debut season form

Differentials had a lot of success once again in Gameweek 21, so Fantasy Premier League managers need to keep an eye out for these sorts of options.

Of the eleven players who scored over 10 points last time out, seven had ownership of 5% or less.

The likes of Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m), Gerard Deulofeu (£6.1m) and César Azpilicueta (£5.8m) all hit double-digit hauls, confirming there is still time to find some hidden gems.

In his last Spot the Differential article, FPL Hints suggested James Tomkins (£5.0m) was due another goal, and right on cue, he delivered in Gameweek 20, heading Luka Milivojevic’s (£6.7m) delivery into the net via the underside of the crossbar.

I’ve had a bit of success picking out differentials this season too, including Jack Grealish (£6.4m) back in October, and more recently Ismaïla Sarr (£6.2m).

Let’s see if I can follow it up, so here are three low-owned picks worth considering for Gameweek 22 and beyond.

Matt Doherty

FPL ownership: 4.9%

Price: £6.1m

GW22-26 fixtures: NEW | sou | LIV | mun | LEI

Matt Doherty (£6.1m), is a player I’ve liked as a differential for quite some time.

Having tipped him on the Scoutcast back in November, and here, the Irishman has since returned in three of Wolverhampton Wanderers last four home games, including one double-digit haul.

In fact, out of the 10 league games he’s played at Molineux this season, he’s provided returns in six of them.

Whilst Wolves have suffered back-to-back league defeats, they head into Gameweek 22 level on points with sixth-placed Tottenham Hotspur and only a point behind Manchester United, who they restricted to no shots on target in last weekend’s FA Cup goalless draw.

The underlying stats further highlight Doherty’s appeal.

He’s taken more shots (seven) and importantly, more shots in the box (seven) than any other defender over the last four Gameweeks, whilst his four Big Chances over the same period is bettered by only Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) and Sadio Mané (£12.3m).

Up next for Wolves is Newcastle United, who have a poor defensive record on the road, conceding 21 away goals, second only to Aston Villa’s 23.

In terms of their attack, their forwards have just three goals between them this season, and are often having to rely on their defenders to bail them out.

This is a team low on confidence, with the lowest possession figure in the league, who have lost their last three league games.

Doherty can take advantage of those weaknesses, and could be a nice differential going forward.

Pablo Fornals

FPL ownership: 0.5%

Price: £6.0m

GW22-26 fixtures: shu | EVE | lei + LIV | BHA | mci

After a difficult start, Pablo Fornals (£6.0m) has been one of West Ham United’s best players in recent weeks.

Slowly but surely, the Spanish midfielder is beginning to show the level of performance many fans expected, delivering one goal and three assists in his last seven games.

Looking at data from the last two Gameweeks, only five midfielders have taken more shots in the box, which suggests further returns could be on the way.

The question is, can we trust the Hammers?

Generally, they have not been great in attack, and have struggled defensively this season, but David Moyes has been hired to try and fix these issues, and early signs are fairly positive after back to back wins over Bournemouth and Gillingham.

The real appeal, however, lies in their forthcoming Double Gameweek.

Taking their Gameweek 24 fixtures in isolation (lei, LIV), West Ham assets don’t look too appealing, but with home ties against Everton and Brighton & Hove Albion positioned either side, Fornals could be an intriguing option.

Available for just £6.0m, Fornals is coming into form at just the right time, and could be an effective differential for the crucial Double Gameweek.

Sead Kolašinac

FPL ownership: 0.6%

Price: £5.2m

GW22-26 fixtures: cry | SHU | che | bur | NEW

It is less than three weeks since Mikel Arteta took over at Arsenal but we are already starting to see clear patterns of play.

On paper, Arsenal are using a 4-2-3-1, but in reality, it’s a 4-4-2 without the ball, transitioning into a 2-3-5 in possession.

The approach against Manchester United involved Sead Kolašinac (£5.2m) pushing forward on the overlap to become a fifth forward, with opposite full-back, Ainsley Maitland-Niles (£4.6m) performing a more traditional full-back role.

Kolašinac looked dangerous throughout, with his deflected cross finding Nicolas Pépé (£9.1m) for the opener, whilst continually providing an attacking outlet on the left.

The Bosnian sits somewhere between a full-back and a winger, who can sometimes be a liability defensively, so this overlapping role suits him well.

Defensively, Arsenal are still a work in progress, putting up mid-table expected numbers, but it’s worth noting only Liverpool, Southampton and Watford have conceded fewer goals since the change of manager.

Their opponents this week, Crystal Palace, look vulnerable.

Their 19 goals scored is the second-fewest in the top flight, with their attack, outside of Wilfried Zaha (£6.8m), lacking imagination.

Add to that an injury crisis, with captain Milivojević also suspended, and Kolašinac looks an ideal gamble for Gameweek 22, and possibly beyond.

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1,047 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Jarvish Scott Talent
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 18 days ago

    Hurry up Rodgers - I need a piss

    1. La Roja
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      lol

    2. Jafooli
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Piss on your chips.....healthier than vinegar

      1. Jarvish Scott Talent
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 18 days ago

        I hope you don't work for Harry Ramsden's.

        1. Jafooli
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 18 days ago

          I own Harry Ramsden’s. Why our batter is so popular.

          1. Jarvish Scott Talent
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            I won't ask what is in the tartare sauce.

            1. Jafooli
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              😛

  2. Niho992
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 18 days ago

    Chances for Sterling to start?

    1. Royal5
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Pretty high.

      1. Niho992
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 18 days ago

        Thx

    2. Jarvish Scott Talent
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      72%

  3. Jafooli
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 18 days ago

    Maddison update?

    Please & thank you....

    1. La Roja
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Imminent

      1. Jafooli
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 18 days ago

        So he’s fit? Is that goals or assists imminent?

        1. Daniel S.
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 18 days ago

          See below mate

          1. Annie
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            I'll wait for an update over "spotted alive".

    2. Villa Velour
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Rodgers says he's okay.

      https://twitter.com/FFScout/status/1215634643116052481

  4. greggles
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 18 days ago

    My big wildcard regrets are Lucas Moura, Ramsdale and Rico. I have 2 FTs. Are they worth hanging onto? ANy other areas that could use fixing?

    Ramsdale / Button
    Rico / Sidibe / TAA / Cathcart / Lundstram
    Moura / Salah / KDB / Grealish / Traore
    Rashford / Vardy / Ings

    Thanks for any advice.

    1. Royal5
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Lucas has to go. Madders maybe? Or start planning for Mane.

    2. markloe
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Bournemouth have very good fixtures but horrible form, I think you can keep one of them. Moura can go.

  5. diesel001
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 18 days ago

    One good thing about the Ndidi injury was that it gave Rodgers a trial run in the EFL Cup SF to see what would happen without him. Rodgers learnt that he has to start Choudhury. Hopefully that keeps the Leicester defence tight. No more Praet, Tielemans and Maddison in a midfield three.

  6. Athletic Nasherbo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 18 days ago

    Oh wow Peo heaping the praise on Aguero...

    1. Athletic Nasherbo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      I meant Pep.

    2. La Roja
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      He’ll be benched then

      1. Athletic Nasherbo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 18 days ago

        Yes exactly my thoughts I wanted to go Aguero(C)

      2. diesel001
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 18 days ago

        Yep. Pep has a record of praising players in press conferences to keep them sweet before benching them.

    3. Daniel S.
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Brace from Kun upcoming

    4. Pukki Party
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Oh no, he's my captain

    5. Firminoooo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Dont like it as a Aguero (C).

  7. jimbo90
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 18 days ago

    Don't really understand all the love for Fabianski. He may get save points occasionally but has upcoming games against Leicester (A), Liverpool (H), City (A), Liverpool (A). Am I missing something?

    1. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Save points and BAPs

    2. Jamb0
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      He has the highest points per game of any keeper in the game this season and has always been FPL gold, with a DGW, what's not to like

      1. jimbo90
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 18 days ago

        Forgot about the upcoming DGW. Thanks

  8. Daniel S.
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 18 days ago

    Maddison owners. He looks fine. source: his Instagram and Leicester Twitter video from training when Vardy scores.

    I am owner too.

    1. Jafooli
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Does he head the ball in any of the vids/pics?

      1. Daniel S.
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 18 days ago

        He applauds Vardy's goal and celebrates. I thin he was wearing a black hat, but was together with the group training.

        1. Daniel S.
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 18 days ago

          *think

          1. Jafooli
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            What? You ‘think’ he’s fit or he is fit?

        2. Jafooli
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 18 days ago

          Did he head the ball?

          Was the hat actually a helmet?

          Did he do a rolly polly in celebration of the goal?

          1. La Roja
            • 8 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            Dafuq is Rolly Polly lol

            1. Jafooli
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Head over heals roll type thing 😆

              1. Daniel S.
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                Jafooli in a mood

    2. La Roja
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      😎

    3. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Have a +1

  9. Reacher
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 18 days ago

    Zaha to Mount

    Yes or no??

    1. Niho992
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 18 days ago

      N

    2. AFCB2019
        2 months, 18 days ago

        No. Grealish? Sarr?

    3. Firminoooo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Has Pep told us yet if Aguero or Jesus will start?

      1. NATSTER
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 months, 18 days ago

        I wish he would give some info.

      2. Polka Wakey O'Dot
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 18 days ago

        Why would you bother?...you’ll be in exactly the same position next week.

      3. Johnny 8
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 18 days ago

        Heaped praise on Aguero so will probably play Jesus.

    4. PepSala
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 18 days ago

      Sterling or Vardy captain doing my head in! No1 in my mini league has Sterling so if he hits I'll double my lead. Vardy is the safe option..

      1. Niho992
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 18 days ago

        Sterling. Join me friend 😀

      2. AFCB2019
          2 months, 18 days ago

          Vardy

      3. AFCB2019
          2 months, 18 days ago

          Hi all, happy to respond to as many of people's queries as I can but just looking for a bit of guidance myself.

          Gazzaniga (McGovern)
          TAA Soy Lund (Rico, Kelly)
          Salah Grealish Zaha KDB
          Vardy (C) Rashford DCL

          1FT remaining (already done Kane to DCL) £5.3mil ITB

          Plan is Liverpool attacking double up and a question of when. Options are:

          A) Leave it. Zaha may return against Arsenal and then it's Zaha + Rashford to Mane + Ings next week for free
          B) Get Martial in for Grealish or Zaha
          C) Get Maddison in for Grealish or Zaha

          With both B and C I will then do Rashford to Ings next week and delay Mane coming in until GW24.

          Thoughts welcome and appreciated

          1. Nomar
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            B for Zaha

        • Polka Wakey O'Dot
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 18 days ago

          Does anybody know if Leicester have a black hat theory in training?

          1. Daniel S.
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            Hahahah. Good one. Me like it

            1. Polka Wakey O'Dot
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              All the subs wear black hats?

              1. Daniel S.
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                Uh. Dont have a clue. I think he is training with black hat because of the head injury or he is cold 🙂

                1. Polka Wakey O'Dot
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 7 Years
                  2 months, 18 days ago

                  Got to be more to it than that. Maybe those with black hats are out for a month?

        • KLOPPS AND ROBBERS... the s…
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 18 days ago

          Do we think Mahrez will play?

          1. TheSteel
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            Should play i think

          2. Daniel S.
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            Sterling Mahrez Aguero probable starters

            1. Would Ed Woodward
              • 1 Year
              2 months, 18 days ago

              On what basis?

        • BremerHB
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 18 days ago

          Play Lund or Soy?

          1. melvinmbabazi
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            Lund

          2. AFCB2019
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Lund for sure

            • Johnny 8
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Lund

            • Julesandal
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Lund

            • Nomar
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              I'm starting both.

          3. The Hoff
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            What would you do in my position?

            A. Alli / Ayew -> Cantwell / Calvert Lewin
            B. Alli / Ayew - > Hayden / Ings
            C. Something else entirely

            Next week I would do Kelly -> Robertson

            Hendo
            TAA / Lundstrum / Soy
            Salah / KdB / Alli / Maddison
            Vardy / Rashford / Ayew

            Gazzaniga / Rico / Kelly / Dendoncker
            2FT 0.1 ITB

          4. SAINTS
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            I have 2FT and want to use at least one.

            Mount to Maddison?

            1. Johnny 8
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Good move if Maddison is fit.

            2. cravencottage
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Maddison might not recover- any other issues with your team?

          5. melvinmbabazi
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            Play?

            A) Tomori (BUR)
            B) Rico (WAT)

            1. Johnny 8
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              A

          6. dillydally1982
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            Really REALLY scraping the barrel in a Draft league...who would you choose to replace Jota for a 1-week punt?

            Neto / McGoldrick / Solanke / Kean

            1. Daniel S.
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Netp

            2. Holmes
              • 6 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Neto

            3. Athletic Nasherbo
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Neto is a midfielder right?

              1. dillydally1982
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                You're right...that messes up my plan! Might have to go McGoldrick then.

          7. PepSala
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            Would you captain Sterling or Vardy if you were leading your mini league?

            1. S.Kuqi
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Sterling. Extend that lead.

          8. Park the bus
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            rival and i separated by 6 points and have ended up with very similar mid / fwds. I have Rashford and Grealish, he has Abraham and Martial. really want to captain Rashford this week to try and make the jump above him.. thoughts? Vardy probably the better pick but it's a bit dull and a Rashford haul as captain would be class..

            1. Polka Wakey O'Dot
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 7 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Go with whoever you think your rival will captain. To all intents and purposes you’re level...just tick a week off.

          9. S.Kuqi
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 18 days ago

            Benching Grealish will probably backfire and 6th captain blank in a row coming.

            McCarthy
            Taa-Sidibe-Soy-Lund (Kelly)
            Salah-Mane-KDB(c) (Grealish)
            Abraham-Vardy-Ings

            1. Jullepuu
                2 months, 18 days ago

                I have Grealish starting and Soy benched and I'm afraid of a Leicester clean sheet

            2. Nomar
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              I like Kolasinac as a differential, but he's not nailed, is he?

              1. Daniel S.
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                I think he is not nailed

              2. Arse Craic
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                He is while Tierney is injured

                1. Arse Craic
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  2 months, 18 days ago

                  Saka had to fill in while Kolasinac was injured

                  1. Nomar
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    2 months, 18 days ago

                    Tempting.

                    Still got one FT.

                    But it is Arsenal defence, though....... 🙁

            3. Julesandal
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 9 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Unsure on this hit or not. I have Salah and Traore

              Alli & Jiminez to Mane & DCL

              Jiminez has great fixture, but so does DCL?

            4. AzzaroMax99
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              G2G? WC active btw

              Hendo
              VVD Soy Sidibe
              Salah(C) Mane KDB(VC) Grealish
              Vardy Ings DCL

              Button Cantwell Webster Hanley

              Aside Taa, change anything or G2G?

              1. Athletic Nasherbo
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                A safe wildcard bar TAA.

              2. in sane in de bruyne
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                Looks good, but I can't understand why you would go without Trent

              3. Julesandal
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                Nice team! Hendo has couple of hard fixtures up next. I have both, but Im keeping ryan and then swopping him back for hendo. Guess it depends on whether you tend to set keeper and leave or not.

            5. Lecky Legs FC
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Pep swerved him me last GW dropping Aguero last weekend think I'll bail and switch him out too much to rotation and relying on him as © should I bring in Auba for free?

            6. faux_C
              • 7 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Dunno why you'd go for Fornals when Snodgrass is *right there* and cheaper.

              1. Athletic Nasherbo
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                They’re about to sign an attacking winger I believe so Snodgrass might not be assured of starts.

              2. avfc82
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • Has Moderation Rights
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                A few things made me opt for Fornals... Antonio returning soon could impact Snodgrass' gametime, he didn't have a shot vs Bournemouth, and I think Fornals is improving.

            7. Arse Craic
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Olivier Giroud will only be allowed to leave the club if it is "right for everybody." No decision has been made on the strikers' future. Loftus-Cheek is still a while away and Pulisic is out for a few weeks with a tendon injury he suffered in training last Saturday. #CFC

              1. Arse Craic
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                CHO anyone?

              2. Nomar
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                Giroud staying isn't exactly right for anyone, though.

            8. George James
              • 5 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              Best moves?

              Pope >>>

              A) Ryan
              B) Fabianksi
              C) Just hold until next week

              Alli >>> (for 2 weeks then will become mane)

              1) Maddison (if confirmed fit)
              2) Dilva
              3) Richarlison

              1. beric
                • 8 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                C2

            9. Firefoxed
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 18 days ago

              1FT 1.2 ITB, anything to do, will bring Salah in for GW24 for alli and rashford

              Ryan/ Button
              TAA/ Soy/ Lund/ Rico/ Kelly
              Alli/ KDB / Mane/ Martial / Cantwell
              Vardy / Maupay / Rashford

              1. cjk17
                • 3 Years
                2 months, 18 days ago

                I have the exact same team bar Martial and Maupay. I currently have Alli and Abraham. Have the exact funds to transfer them out for Salah and DCL. Might wait one more week though.