Pro Pundit Teams

Using xG data to identify the best low-owned options for Gameweek 28 and beyond

Six-time top 5k finisher Utkarsh Dalmia – aka Zophar –  talks us through some alternative FPL assets as we approach the second Blank Gameweek of the campaign.


The first truncated Gameweek of the season is upon us and the phrase “a hit is only a minus two this week” is being thrown about as usual.

There is some logic to this – if one of your players is going to score zero points this week, then selling him for someone who has a fixture should secure a minimum of two points for an appearance alone.

However, this not always the case, with rotation, yellow cards and conceding goals often having an effect. You also might end up, as Triggerlips used to say, “throwing the baby out with the bathwater” if you sell someone like Kevin De Bruyne (£10.8m)

For the purpose of this article, I’m focusing on identifying lesser-owned players who I believe can repay a hit this week as well as form part of your squad for the next three weeks leading up to Blank Gameweek 31. I’m ignoring goalkeepers as their ceiling is quite low.

First, I’m looking at the Custom Table for xGOT (expected goals on target) both for and against over the last four Gameweeks to identify the whipping boys, and then looking at the Season Ticker to see which teams play them.

As this piece draws heavily on stats from our Members Area, most of it is available only to subscribers.

In terms of my team, Barnes will likely come in for Riyad Mahrez (£8.5m). With Leroy Sane (£9.3m) and Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) nearing fitness, I’m not confident of the Algerian’s prospects for the long term despite the rumours (and they are only that, for now) of a possible Double Gameweek 29 for the champions.

This will leave me with £4.2m in the bank. so I’m tempted to take a hit for Pereira or Doherty to sort out the Martin Kelly (£4.2m)/Diego Rico (£4.3m) problems but would also like to have some cash in the bank to make moves for City players if they do indeed have a double next week.

Bringing in Jota for Mason Greenwood (£4.3m) is also an option but after his display against Watford, I think selling him for a hit could potentially backfire.

All the Custom Tables used are accessible in the Members Area. Hope you enjoyed reading.


An FPL veteran of 10 seasons, Utkarsh Dalmia has been a member of the site right since 2009 and has finished in the top 5k in six of those campaigns, with a best finish of 17th in 2010. A Chelsea fan based in India, he relies heavily on statistics for his FPL decision-making process.

1,067 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Old Man
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    Just woken up to find that Man City scored two late goals. Woo hoo - KDB on penalties ..... wouldn't want to sell him now! Ironic that he went down overnight.

    1. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Kun off the field so I suspect he’s limited to pens from minute 70 on

      1. bench boost for every gamew…
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        no debate anymore, case is closed. 10.7 mid playing for the best attacking team, he is both main provider of assists and scores occasionally, gets bps every time he scores, now he has pens too.

        And most importantly, City won and Jesus pushed Ramos (he got what he deserved) and then they got him sent off. Jubilee (i still have nightmares from Kiev).

    2. Syd.
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      We will all be waiting in anticipation for City’s next PL when both him and Aguero are on the pitch.

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        Absolutely!!

    3. el polako
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      TAA and KDB - two players I never considered to sell this season.

      1. Rains of Castamere
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        Sold KDB for Mane last week. Already 5pts up, which will increase this week with no City game, then Mane plays Bournemouth at home while KDB has United away. Then I'll reassess but I'm confident Mane outscores him by 15pts

        1. mirkomen77
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 5 days ago

          Fair enough, still Mané is 2.5 m more expensive

  2. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    Any news on the likelihood of a dgw in gw29? Can't decide whether to use both my FT and carry one over as it will be needed if there is a dgw

    Ryan
    Taa Robb Aurier Rico -- Lundy
    Salah Martial Grealish -- Stephens Kdb
    Vardy Jimmy Ings

    A: Grealish >> Barnes and carry FT. Hope that rico starts as I don't have bench
    B: Grealish + Lundy >> Barnes + Boly and bench Rico. If dgw29, means I will need one or two hits as I currently only have 1 player from city
    C: Lundy >> Boly and carry FT and play 523 with rico

    1. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      I'd do C soley on the premise that two FTs will be invaluable next week - you can decide which way to go AFTER seeing who gets through in the FA Cup.

      1. unitednations
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        Yeah quite tempted with carrying over an FT. In that case, is option A not better? Grealish fixtures aren’t great and not keen with playing 523 this gw with Boly and Rico if I do C

        1. Old Man
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 5 days ago

          Yes, did think of A. Grealish might play in GW31 but his fixtures are crap as you say .... as long as you are happy with Barnes missing GW31 - we should beat Birmingham. Maybe you'll play FH in GW31 anyway.
          I wouldn't do B - the DGW29 is probably an illusion. Pep rotation will be difficult to predict.

    2. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      we willkow by friday, but looking at your team who would you want from dgwers if it is happening? Martial to Mahrez maybe? Your strikers, will you move any of them? They all have excellent fixtures that week?

      City dgw is bar Ederson and perhaps KDB, plus one r two randoms like Walker/Silva/etc but hard to predict whom, and if it Chelsea, it is Everton home and City, not sure who i would want then? Mount for Grealish? If it is Arsenal, Auba is expensive and Vardy got Villa home and you need a million or so to get there, mids are either expensive Pepe, so Martial + a million, defender from Arsenal with City as one of them, seems like not a good idea

      What i´msaying here is that you can do 2 trannies this week but i would then perhaps makes sure you have money enough itb to get from say Martial to Mahrez/pepe, or Vardy to Auba, if not i would just do 1ft this week. Aurier is a possibility to get some money itb?

  3. pingissimus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 5 days ago

    No particular sign of the triple rise for Bruno then 🙂

    1. Syd.
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      He’s the new Lingard 🙂

      1. el polako
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        Bit harsh.

  4. sunzip14
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    Did KDB only take the penalty because Courtois (KDB's ex-GF cheated with him) was the goalkeeper? 😛 Would be great if he continued to take them.

    1. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Read somewhere he was prepared to take them if asked.

  5. FDMS All Starz
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    What to do here? Get rid of lunds or save FT? If I save I can bring in Vardy/Auba for free the next week
    1FTs & 2m itb

    Ryan
    TAA - Taylor - Soy - Cathcart*
    Salah - Martial - Mane
    Ings - DCL - Jimenez

    Subs: Button - Romeu - Kdb - Lunds

    1. farmerfat
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      I would save

    2. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Tricky

      Lund to Boly/Saïss/Doh must be a temptation but think waiting on Auba may be the winner

      (Have very similar set up - Jota for DCL and the mighty Kiko for Cathcart 🙂 - but had to spend a ft to get Taylor and took a punty -4 on Pereira)

  6. Tmel
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    McCarthy
    Holgate TAA Gomez Rico*
    Salah Dendoncker Traore*
    Vardy Jimenez
    (Button Egan Grealish KDB Auba)

    2FT and 0.1ITB - currently have anywhere between 8-10 players depending on Rico & Traore:

    a) Rico & Grealish > Stephens & Barnes
    b) Egan, Grealish & Dendoncker > Saiss, Armstrong & Barnes (-4)
    c) Egan, Grealish & Traore > Taylor, Fernandes & Saka (-4)

    1. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 5 days ago

      A I suspect - tempted by C but bringing in Saka for a hit seems bold!

      Would prefer Soy to Stephens

  7. Whats the Huth
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    Praying arsenal wins. So no doubles happens in GW29

    1. bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      DGW29 could still happen if Chelsea or City progress in FA Cup.

      1. Whats the Huth
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        You do realise that rearranged fixtures needs to be confirmed 7-10 days in advance. Today is the deadline.

        They aren’t going to rearrange fixtures ahead of unknown outcome of the FA cup results.

        It’s only the Arsenal and City DGW that was most likely to happen

        1. Whats the Huth
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 5 days ago

          Basically. Not getting the news before GW28 like everyone is expecting

        2. bitm2007
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 5 days ago

          Probably already arranged, just needs the go ahead.

    2. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Hope they lose and Liverpool go through in cup - let chaos reign.

      1. Whats the Huth
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        Organised chaos please

    3. zøphar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      They've been on a decent run recently I'm confident they will go through against Olympiakos

    4. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      having won in athen i would be confident of that, i really don´t get why people think Arsenal would be beaten by Olympiakos, do people not know that Greek league have been decreasing in recent years? And they just recently sold a couple of their best players (podence).

  8. g40steve
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    So the highest point scorer in the game is one of the most sold players?
    Wonder if they are reversing that decision now he is on penalties.......

    1. Ruinenlust
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      He has a blank Steve

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        and then a compensating double, potentially.

        1. Ruinenlust
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 5 days ago

          Then people will buy him next GW, not that hard to understand Old Man

        2. Whats the Huth
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 5 days ago

          Won’t happen if Arsenal wins tonight

          1. Old Man
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 5 days ago

            I don't mean DGW29 - I mean sometime between now and the end of the season. Why not just bench him? This week unlikely to be a humdinger anyway.

    2. The Bad Seed
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Stupid.

      I never planned to drop KDB ever especially since Ive owned him since GW1 at 9.5. Currently on wildcard.
      Did the rookie mistake of offloading him (just for drafting a team), forgetting that once I confirm and want to bring him back on the same wildcard, I'll be playing the new value!!

      Just lost 0.7 on him, and now im not so sure I want to keep him for the next few...

      Thoughts?

      1. Old Man
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        Oh dear - and now he might be on penalties. Either bite the bullet and get him back immediately or get behind the sofa for the next few games and then buy him. You never know, he might get injured .....? Tough decision.

        1. The Bad Seed
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 5 days ago

          I want him back bu the dye is cast.

          But now that this is done and done, and I've lost the value - no need to hold him for a blank and a tough small run.

          I'll make use of Mane (who was going to send be behind the sofa in the next few) and with both Mane and Salah, it should be easy to bring him back.

          IE i WILL bite the bullet. Just a few GWs from now since the value has already been lost.

  9. The Overthinker - I blame R…
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    How many of you are joining the Vardy (c) party??

    1. It’s gonna Ben Mee
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      I joined but not expecting a party. More of a reception.

    2. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Planning ahead for next season?

      (Interesting to see if Wolves was an outlier or if Norwich are now a team to target - big divergence between Wolves and Liverpool outcomes)

    3. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Not me - I want to see his confidence return first. Norwich have tightened up a bit and they also gave us big problems at the KP.

    4. Whats the Huth
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Very tempted. But probably going Mane

    5. AC Yew
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Was planning but now considering TAA!

  10. Vimes (No Arsenal Players)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 5 days ago

    Rico (CHE h) to Fernandez (BUR h) for -4 hit?

    Rico didn't play at Burnley so...

    1. zøphar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      I wouldn't trust the Newcastle defence, Dubravka has been bailing them out, the numbers are horrific

    2. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      You might be better off getting Taylor of Burnley - I wouldn't be surprised to see then win 0-1. I got Fernandez and I think it was probably a mistake - hoping he'll score instead! 🙂

  11. fcsaltyballs
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    Pope
    TAA VVD Soyuncu Dunk
    Salah Traore Dendoncker
    Ings Jimenez Vardy

    Henderson KDB Grealish Lundstram

    0 FT, 1.5 ITB

    Is anything worth a hit here to play over Dendoncker??

    Thanks all

  12. Lucky Z
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    McCarthy
    TAA | Robertson | Lascelles | C.Taylor (Saiss)
    Salah | Alli | Martial (KDB | Grealish)
    Vardy | Jimenez | Greenwood

    GTG? 0.9ITB, no hits

    1. Tinkermania
      1 month, 5 days ago

      If Salah blanks and Pool win 2-1, potentially a 20point week for you.

      1. Lucky Z
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        Vardy captain. What can be done to avoid it?

        1. Tinkermania
          1 month, 5 days ago

          I would shift KDB or Grealish or both to a non-blanker with big potential. Utd, Chelsea, Spurs mids maybe.

          1. Lucky Z
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 5 days ago

            Who are these potentials? Dont want to souble up on ManUtd mids frankly...

    2. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Skinny - not sure Alli is worth hanging on to. Does Greenwood play again?

      1. Lucky Z
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        Both troubling me, no answers though

  13. Vimes (No Arsenal Players)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 5 days ago

    Will Rico start? I really want 11 starters

    1. Brosstan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      No

      1. Vimes (No Arsenal Players)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 5 days ago

        cheers

    2. Whats the Huth
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Maybe. But I’d get another player in and bench Rico just in case

      1. Vimes (No Arsenal Players)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 5 days ago

        even for a -4?

  14. The 12th Man
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    McCarthy
    TAA, VVD,Digne,Lascelles
    Salah,Traore,Mooy
    DCL,Jimenez,Ings

    Henderson,Williams,KDB,Grealish 5.4m itb 1FT

    Considering a couple of routes for a hit.

    A) Digne,Grealish >> Periera,Barnes -4
    Wk 29 DCL/Ings > Aubamayang
    Wk 31 FH

    B) VVD,Grealish > Doherty,Mane -4
    Means no Leicester and no Aubamayang.
    WK 31 no FH.

  15. pingissimus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 5 days ago

    Looking at goals conceded in last 4 - or even 6 - home matches and Norwich are very mid table at just over one a game. It’s not as though Liverpool was an easy game either

  16. Ruud000
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    Great piece Zophar, thanks. I’ve got a decision to make for my Grealish replacement...

    Barnes
    Mount
    Or a punt on RLC

    Already got Traore. And got Vardy.

    Think I’m leaning towards Mount.

    1. Rushford
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      I would go Barnes

      1. Ruud000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        Based on the stats? I’d end up with 3x wolves, 3x Leicester and 0x Chelsea.

    2. The 12th Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Barnes

  17. Rushford
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    Play Digne (MUN) or Cantwell (LEI) ?

  18. STRANGER INGS
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    Let nothing distract you from the fact that TAA has gone a massive 11 gw without a blank. 11! (in caps)

    1. The 12th Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      He’s due a blank then.

    2. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Captain?

      1. STRANGER INGS
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        This week, for sure

    3. The 12th Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Yep, amazing.
      Season keeper. Expect 7.5 - 8m next season.

  19. Vimes (No Arsenal Players)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    1 month, 5 days ago

    Best budget Defender? Will prob only play a couple games this season. Thinking Fernandez...

    A) Fernandez
    B) Taylor
    C) Bardsley
    D) Diop
    E) Other

    1. Pomp and Circumstance
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Boly and Lascelles are also options

    2. Richard Richard (AKA: Anzhi…
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Saiss?

      1. Vimes (No Arsenal Players)
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 5 days ago

        I'm tempted mostly because of your account name 🙂

  20. Pep Roulette
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    A. Vardy & Boly
    B. Jota & Doherty

    Have Jimenez but no Leicester!

    1. Pep Roulette
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      Not FH'ing in BGW31!

    2. The 12th Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 5 days ago

      A.
      Focus on every week, not just 31.

      1. Pep Roulette
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 5 days ago

        Cheers mate!

      2. pingissimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 5 days ago

        Wolves have fixtures almost as good as Leicester and they are in form individually and as a team. It’s not just Vardy who has sucked recently Leicester have 8 points from last 7 matches

  21. Tinkermania
    1 month, 5 days ago

    People excited about KDB taking that penalty. It doesn't mean he scores next one. Can he put it the other side? There is a reason he only took one all season. He is not their best taker. Let's wait and see.

  22. True Deadzoner
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 5 days ago

    Bruno or Maddisohn? LEI fixtures are unbelievable

  23. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 2 days ago

    Want Traore to bang for Niho992