Spot the Differential

Jesus still offers reliable differential potential ahead of FPL Gameweek 3

After a disappointing start in Gameweek 1, we’re back on track having tipped Timothy Castagne (£5.6m) and Raheem Sterling (11.5m) last week.

This time, we’ve selected three differentials who are already off the mark this season, including two forwards who hit double figures last term, and a midfielder who we think is a viable alternative to community favourites Daniel Podence (£5.6m) and Phil Foden (£6.5m), without the rotation worries.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Gabriel Jesus

  • FPL ownership: 3.0%
  • Price: £9.5m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: LEI | lee | ARS | whu | shu

With Sergio Agüero (£10.4m) still recovering from a knee injury, Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m) looks set for an extended run in Manchester City’s starting XI, which hands FPL managers a potentially explosive differential option.

Having undergone knee surgery back in June, Pep Guardiola confirmed last week that Agüero is yet to train with his team-mates and will require longer than other players to get back up to speed – potentially up to two months.

In his absence, Jesus will most likely be tasked with leading the line, and his statistics from last season highlight just how influential he can be. 

His 101 shots, 92 of which arrived inside the box, and 34 big chances ranked second amongst all forwards, while of those who played a significant number of minutes, only Agüero could improve on his 0.78 expected goals (xG) per90. Despite, at times, being wasteful in front of goal, it demonstrates his ability to consistently get into good shooting positions.

Jesus was on the scoresheet in Manchester City’s first match of the season in Gameweek 2, as he returned deep into injury time in a 3-1 win at Wolverhampton Wanderers. Interestingly, Guardiola paired Rodri (5.5m) and Fernandinho (5.5m) up at the base of his midfield, with Foden, Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), Sterling and Jesus in front in a flexible 4-2-3-1, and it worked rather well. The Brazilian’s link up play, work rate and physicality stood out, while his two shots in the box matched that of Foden and De Bruyne.

Currently owned by just 3.0% of FPL managers, Jesus is a big differential who can provide a medium-term solution till Agüero returns from injury.

Matheus Pereira

  • FPL ownership: 2.5%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: CHE | sou | BUR | bha | ful

Matheus Pereira (£6.0m) lit up the Championship last season, and finished the campaign with a total of eight goals and 16 assists.

116 chances created – more than any other player – and 111 shots over 42 appearances highlights his importance, but how will he fare in the Premier League?

Well, so far, pretty well, and it’s been a testing couple of weeks for newcomers West Bromwich Albion.

Already, Pereira has been involved in both of his side’s goals. He provided an assist for Grady Diangana’s (£5.5m) opener against Everton and also scored a superb free-kick in the same match. He also leads the way amongst team-mates for shots, chances created, final-third touches and take-ons, while offering multiple routes to points via set-pieces.

Last season, as the standout player in Albion’s attack, Pereira operated either as a number 10 in a 4-2-3-1 or out wide in a 4-3-3. However, this season, manager Slaven Bilić has mainly, and somewhat surprisingly, opted to use a back three system, which has seen the playmaker drift infield from his starting position on the right, with wing-back Daniel Furlong (£4.5m) offering width down that side. Whether or not this is a long-term solution, or simply to combat tough opposition, time will tell.

A Gameweek 3 home encounter at home to Chelsea is followed by a promising run of fixtures which sees the Baggies take on Southampton, Burnley, Brighton and Hove Albion and Fulham, and while this weekend’s matchup isn’t ideal, it’s worth pointing out the Blues have given up more chances down their left-side than any other zone in the opening two Gameweeks.

The likelihood is that West Brom will struggle this season, but if they can get Pereira on the ball often enough, they’re sure to create chances and score goals.

Chris Wood

using-the-top-10000-ownership-to-increase-your-fpl-rank-andys-article 7
  • FPL ownership: 2.2%
  • Price: £6.5m
  • GW3-7 fixtures: SOU | new | wba | TOT | CHE

2019/20 was the third season in a row that Chris Wood (£6.5m) has scored double figures in the Premier League.

The focal point of Burnley’s attack hit 14 goals in 29 starts, while only three forwards in the entire division registered more than his 31 big chances.

What’s particularly impressive is that he accumulated those numbers off of a modest 65 shots on goal, of which 41 arrived at Turf Moor, where he thrived and scored 64% of his goals.

Having finished the season strongly with goals in each of his last three appearances, Wood has continued from where he left off, as he found the back of the net in The Clarets’ first match of the season at Leicester City, logging three shots in the box and a further two big chances.

Burnley’s tenth placed finish last term possibly hasn’t been talked about enough. After a run of four defeats around the New Year, they lost just twice in 16 games, one of which was against Manchester City, and the other on the final day of the season.

Looking ahead to the weekend, Wood could find some joy against Southampton if they continue with their high defensive line. The 28-year-old loves to operate on the shoulder of the last man in an attempt to stretch the game. It resulted him in being caught offside more times than any other player last season, which is something he discussed in a recent interview with The Athletic: “It really doesn’t bother me, getting caught offside, because I know that the one time that I don’t, I’ll be in on goal.”

The closer Wood is to goal, the more dangerous he becomes, and ahead of a home tie against a vulnerable Saints defence, is a tempting differential.

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avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/894/history”

1,040 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Reacher
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 4 days ago

    On a wildcard

    A, Rodriguez
    B, Son
    C, Richarlison
    D, DCL

    Best combo out of the above?

    Currently I've got B&D

    1. DIMITRIS
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      B and D imo

    2. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      BD
      BC more exciting

  2. Flair
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    2 months, 4 days ago

    13 Senior Players fit, hmm.

    Ederson, Steffen, Walker, Garcia, Mendy, Sterling, KDB, Rodri, Foden, Mahrez, Torres, Ake, Jesus

    That makes 13, with Doyle, Nmecha and Delap the players considered not senior.

    1. Twisted Saltergater
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Fernandinho?

    2. Seanigula
      • 11 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      He also said that before he really knows KDB’s status

  3. klopptimusprime
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 4 days ago

    On WC

    Salah or Sterling

    1. FULLSERVICECOVER
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      no kdb then sterling

      1. klopptimusprime
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        have KDB, just think that leeds fixture looks juicy

    2. Reacher
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Salah

  4. Maddamotha
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 4 days ago

    Is this worht a hit?

    ASM > Podence.

    Justin will come in if ASM doesn't play.

    1. FULLSERVICECOVER
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      just about

      1. Maddamotha
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        It's a tricky one tbh. ASM might still play, but would probably at best start on the bench.

  5. DIMITRIS
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 4 days ago

    Sorry for repost, but this got stuck on the bottom of the last page.

    After a terrible start to the season I wildcarded this week. I have a City triple up with KDB, Sterling and Jesus. Also have 0.8 ITB for Sterling to Salah if needed.
    Team looks like this, what do you think:

    Martinez (Steer)
    TAA - VVD - Saiss - Lamptey (Mitchell)
    KDB - Sterling - Podence - Hamez (Burke)
    Jesus - Jimenez (Davis)

    1. aircraft1
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      I like it apart from Hamez

      1. DIMITRIS
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        Whom do you like more than him in that price bracket?

        1. aircraft1
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          Hamez > Barnes
          Jimmi > Werner

          1. Baines on Toast...
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            I'd keep Jimi for sure.

            Barnes looks good too - but I think Hamez is a keeper.

          2. DIMITRIS
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 4 days ago

            Thats sound advice, but I guess it's 50-50 call.
            I do like more Hamez than Barnes tho

  6. Joey Tribbiani
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Nowadays these twitter accounts KNOW that there is a FPL audience who are interested in any rumours, they are just milking it for followers and clicks. Deleting tweets proves it for me.

    • Reacher
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Stuck on this below

      A, Richarlson & Jimenez

      Or

      B, DCL & Werner

    • curious_zombie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Thoughts on the WC team please:
      McCarthy, 4.0
      James, Saiss, Lamptey, Taylor, Mitchell
      Salah, KDB, Barnes, 4.5, 4.5
      Werner, Kane, Jimenez

      Unable to fit in Jamez right now - assuming they wouldn't explode for a couple of gws at least.
      Will try to get in an everton assets 2-3 gws down the line

      1. ResultatFar
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        I have the exact same WC team, however got James instead of Barnes. Nervous myself that it's too heavy on top, but it really do look tasty!

        1. curious_zombie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          At least we'd be gunning for goals 🙂

    • falafel
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Klich or Podence? Already have Saiss and Jimenez, too much with 3 Wolves?

      1. Citytilidie
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        Trying to make the same decision. Honestly have no idea what the right decision is. Leaning Klich slight for pens.

        1. curious_zombie
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          Podence if you have back-up, Klich if you want someone nailed-on

      2. Baines on Toast...
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        It's risk & reward. Klich is as nailed as anyone, and on pens, Podence is not. Podence looks like he could score double figures every time he plays and has much better fixtures.

        1. Baines on Toast...
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          i.e. there is no correct answer, whatever you decide and however it works out.

    • dezille
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Anyone on WC considering Mendy @ 5.0 GK?

    • Dark Side Of The Loon!
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Does it look ok? 0.2 ITB

      Martinez
      VVD James Lamptey
      Salah KDB JRodriguez Podence
      Werner Ings Jiminez

      Steer Mitchell Anguissa Dunne

      1. Reacher
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        I like it

      2. Weasel Boy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 4 days ago

        Pretty much my exact team except I have Saiss instead of Lampty

        1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          How did you manage that additional 0.5?

    • Reacher
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 4 days ago

      Don't normally do the RMT thing but on a W/C and need some feedback

      McCarthy, Ryan
      James, Saiss, TAA, *Mitchell *Justin
      Salah, KDB, Son, Klitch, Podence
      Werner, DCL *Brewster

      Any advice appreciated as I'm at the stage where I have looked for too long and going cross eyed!

    • Dr_ban_her
        2 months, 4 days ago

        Why no love for Abraham this season ?

        1. St Pauli Walnuts
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 4 days ago

          Bloke called Werner was signed