Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

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3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. paza12
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 29 days ago

    Best Son replacement? Have 9.4 ITB. Got Barnes, Rodriguez, Zaha and Townsend on the radar. Cheers!

    1. Right In The Stanchion
        1 month, 29 days ago

        You seen Son’s fixtures GW5 onwards?

        1. F_Ivanovic
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Good for 4 weeks before 3 tough fixtures in 5 games. And West Brom is the only really good fixture. Not worth holding on IMO

      • COLLIN QUANER
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        hold

    2. Shineonme
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      3

    3. GloryManUnited
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 29 days ago

      People acting like Salah is the best captain choice...

      Just sitting back with Sterling (C) locked in chuckling!

      1. Tony Martial
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Don’t own Sterling and I predict you will be chuckling this weekend could be an insane haul in store but I just don’t know whose bettee between mo or Kev rn

      2. Right In The Stanchion
          1 month, 29 days ago

          A deluded United fan. Where have I seen that before?

          1. The Senate
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            nothing delusional about this post.

          2. COLLIN QUANER
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            So you think Sterling is a bad choice this week....?

            1. GloryManUnited
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              He doesn't think. He's made it clear continuously with his posts.

      3. TSN
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Need some opinion.

        Martinez (meslier)
        Digne - justin - TAA - ayling - dunne
        Salah - hamez (son, harrison, bissouma)
        Jimenez - Vardy - Wilson

        0.9 itb, 1 FT

        A. Keep it, save FT
        B. Son + wilson --> DCL + Zaha
        C. Son + wilson --> fernandez - callum robinson

        Thanks

        1. Pulp Minion
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          A - keep the transfer - it could be VERY handy over the international break.

      4. Rains of Castamere
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Villa's defensive improvement is just... wow.

        https://twitter.com/aveek18/status/1312061361904652289?s=19

        KDB (c)

        1. Tony Martial
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          oh for god sake

        2. Scots Gooner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          They certainly won't be pushovers.

          I'm surprised so many think Mane out is some kind of advantage for Salah. Villa will be tough to break down.

        3. Sun Jihai
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Helps not having Nyland in goal anymore
          That would have been a Salah TC opportunity

        4. Hazz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          It's definitely better since that restart period, however the first two games this season for them were not the biggest of tests.

        5. Goonsquad245
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          How many goals do you expect Liverpool to score on Sunday?

      5. baines is god
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        I have 2 FT's and genuinely no idea what to do. I heard Vinagre is about to leave and probably won't play tomorrow. But he's 4.4 mil and annoyingly I don't have any money in the bank so only playing options are Mitchell, who'll lose his place to PAV after the international break and Dunne who could lose his place to Mee.
        I don't want to not use a transfer and waste one!

        Nyland McCarthy
        Robertson TAA Shaw Dier Vinagre
        Stephens Mount Salah Romeu Podence
        Vardy Ings Kane

        Other options include
        A-Shaw > Coady
        B Kane > Jimenez
        C Kane > DCL and Romeu > Barnes

        Thoughts much appreciated!!

        1. TSN
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          C looks good

        2. skodaole2
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          I d change Shaw and Vinagre. Many options there, all comes down to which teams you prefer. Kane and Mount are your differentials I wouldn’t touch them. If you like Shaw that much, I d downgrade Podence to upgrade Vinagre.

          1. baines is god
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            any suggestions which two defenders I could move towards. Obviously 9.4 million is a very inconvenient amount. Who's the most nailed on sub 4.5 defender at the moment.
            Johnson, Mitchell, Dunne could all lose their places after international break

            1. skodaole2
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              I d go for a Newcastle and maybe Justin if the cash is enough, else a Villa defender could be handy they seem to have a good defence

              1. baines is god
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Like Shaw to Lamptey and Vinagre to Justin but really want Wolves defenders, think they could easily get 3 clean sheets in next 4 weeks

        3. Twisted Saltergater
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Shaw to Lamptey gives you a bit more funds

        4. Rains of Castamere
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          I wouldn't be losing Kane...

          Mount to Trossard
          Vinagre to Saiss

          1. baines is god
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Mount's my Chelsea coverage and seems great value right now at 6.9
            Lampard seems to always pick him also

            1. Rains of Castamere
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Yeah I like him but your strikeforce is your differential really, can't be many teams around with those big hitters.

              1. baines is god
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Shaw to Coady is an option. Coady has no attackng return potential unlikely Justin and Lamptey but Wolves' clean sheet potential in next 4 weeks is so high I want coverage

        5. AnfieldLad
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Vinagre is probably main concern as he’s leaving. Maybe Kane -> DCL/Jiménez and Vinagre -> Semedo ?

      6. Tcheco
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Bottomed

        Mane out for:

        A. KDB
        B. Salah

        I own Sterling

        1. Tinkermania
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Auba

          1. Tcheco
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 29 days ago

            Wow didn't even think of that one hmmmm

            1. Tinkermania
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 29 days ago

              That's why I am doing starting the week with -8

        2. Fiqz Fariss
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          auba or salah

      7. Nightf0x
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Start 1
        Taylor or justin

        1. Tcheco
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Surely Justin

      8. Pedram
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        Think Jimenez is a great captaincy pick this week but don't have the balls to give it to him.

        1. PL Ball
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          'Explosiveness' ability is always the question for me.

        2. Scots Gooner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Its the low ceiling that puts me off. Your not getting any more than a goal and a few bonus max

      9. JohnnyRev7
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 29 days ago

        With Mane absent this GW should I go:

        A) Havertz (3.5 ITB)

        B) Sterling (already have KDB - 0.4 ITB)

        Can't afford a straight swap to Salah.

        Thoughts?

        (Just when I thought I'd nailed my WC. Grrrrr....)

      10. Ronniie
          1 month, 29 days ago

          Seeing as Barnes is the consensus replacement for Son I feel lucky to have both. I’ll go ahead and start Sonny in hopes that Jose was just playing mind games. Got Lamptey 1st bench

        • HellasLEAF
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 29 days ago

          why Gabriel not starting for Gunners?

          played well, scored, then benched...

          1. Right In The Stanchion
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Arteta loves David Luiz and Holding has more experience.

              Think Holding will be out this week tbh though.

            • Scots Gooner
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Think they're just trying to ease him in somewhat. Could see him playing this week since its a home game.

          2. Bennyboy1907
              1 month, 29 days ago

              KDB or Salah for captain
              Mane is out
              What do we think?

            • Stupendous
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 29 days ago

              Scouse fans...

              Jota straight in for Mane???

              1. Right In The Stanchion
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Any truth in it now?

                  1. The Senate
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 29 days ago

                    BBC

                  2. PL Ball
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 29 days ago

                    Confirmed by Club. He tested positive.

                  3. Good Times
                    • 7 Years
                    1 month, 29 days ago

                    Fpl website has the news flashing

                • Stupendous
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Nobody has answered

              2. Captain Vantastic™
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Coady or Saiss? Please advise.

              3. kamdaraji
                • 11 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                looks like Son will be dropping in price again to 8.9m

                1. Van der Faart
                  • 9 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Bargain

                2. COLLIN QUANER
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Might miss one game and then has brilliant fixtures. Crazy to get rid of him in my opinion

                  1. Goonsquad245
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 29 days ago

                    Depends who for

              4. Viper
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Hi all. Any advice on this?

                A. Mitrovic -> DCL (-4). Yay/Nay?

                B. Start Justin or KWP? Also play Mccarthy

                1. Boss Hogg
                  • 11 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Yes
                  B

                  1. Boss Hogg
                    • 11 Years
                    1 month, 29 days ago

                    I mean Yes and Justin!

              5. Dynamic Duos
                • 7 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Is Brewster eligible to play?

                1. Scots Gooner
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Don't think so.

              6. damiang2233
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Son, Podence & Lascelles on the injury list? Any thoughts what to do?

                1. MattysFantasyFooty
                  • 7 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  wildcard?

                  1. damiang2233
                    • 10 Years
                    1 month, 29 days ago

                    Too early to wildcard...Thinking of taking son and werner out for KDB and DCL? Chance leaving the other 2 injuries as 75%?

                2. skodaole2
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Depends on your bench. None of them is ruled out 100 percent so I guess you may have at least one starter there. If need be change two for a hit to be sure you don’t have many zeros

                3. Rains of Castamere
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Podence likely to play IMO

              7. Boss Hogg
                • 11 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Play Mitro or KWP this week?

              8. Good Times
                • 7 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Usually have a real cheap bench but really need atleast 2-3 points coming with covid still being a reality we can't shake off

              9. Nightf0x
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Rams
                Taa justin sais taylor
                Bruno salah kdb podence
                Dcl jimi
                Bench - soucek davis mitchel

                Which?
                A) roll ft
                B) soucek to klich, bench taylor/justin
                C) davis bruno -4 to ings barnes, bench taylor/justin

              10. TeddiPonza
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Lamptey and Burke good enough bench cover for Son and Podence? Considering whether to switch Son to Mahrez/Barnes or save transfer.

              11. JURGENAUT
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Guys, please choose one of the two:

                Team A)

                McCarthy
                TAA / Robbo / Justin / Lamptey
                Salah (C) / KDB / Zaha
                Jimenez / Ings / DCL

                B: Forster / Mitchell / Burke / 4.5

                0.2 ITB

                Team B)

                McCarthy
                Robbo / Justin / Lamptey
                Salah (C) / KDB / Zaha / Barnes
                Jimenez / Ings / DCL

                B: Forster / Soucek / Mitchell / Dallas

                0.1 ITB

                Appreciate all replies guys, thankss!

                1. King Kun Ta
                  • 5 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  B

                2. JURGENAUT
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Thanks, anyone else please? 🙂

                3. KAPTAIN KANE
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  A but with Barnes instead of Zaha

                4. JURGENAUT
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Thanks KK, anyone else please? 🙂

                  1. KAPTAIN KANE
                    • 3 Years
                    1 month, 29 days ago

                    Try to eliminate what you’re actually asking. E.g you are in theory choosing between:

                    A) TAA | Burke | 4.5 mid
                    Or
                    B) Dallas | Barnes | Soucek

                    Which, now I’ve put it like that I prefer B

              12. Will J 256
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Mahrez or Barnes? Agonising over this one! Replacement for son by the way.

                1. Stupendous
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Same. Ugh.

                2. Stupendous
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Jota could be the answer now!

                3. kamdaraji
                  • 11 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Mahrez

                4. ididnt
                  • 9 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  barnes for me

                  1. Will J 256
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    1 month, 29 days ago

                    Thanks guys!

              13. tristanabc
                • 9 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Who to bench? Currently on James.

                Martinez (Steer)
                TAA Saiss Castagne (James, Mitchell)
                Salah KDB Mahrez Podence (Anguissa)
                DCL Jimi Wood

              14. Drip Doctor
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Son owners, lets talk.

                What are we doing with him? The popular moves seem to be

                Son > Barnes
                Son > Mahrez

                Do any of you think its better to keep him? Jose is being very coy about the whole situation, it wouldn't surprise me if he starts. Normally, i'd do Son > Mahrez, but i'm not certain Mahrez will start. The City fans seem to dislike him for whatever reason and having played 90 midweek, its put me off.

                Barnes i like, but, is he worth a transfer when Son will be back after the International break, i don't think so.

                I leaning towards keeping him.

                1. Van der Faart
                  • 9 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  I'm trying to figure out a way to get a decent Xi Out and hold on to him myself, considering Bale is due to be fit after the IB too, that front 3 should be electric.

                  1. Drip Doctor
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    1 month, 29 days ago

                    It also worries me a bit. Jose seems to enjoy rotating all of a sudden.

                2. TeddiPonza
                  • 10 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Considering the same (see above). Depends on the bench cover. Have Lamptey as 1st sub and Burke as 2nd (if Podence is out as well) so might just save.

                3. KAPTAIN KANE
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  I did:

                  Son to Barnes
                  Wilson to DCL for -4

                4. KAPTAIN KANE
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  I don’t think Son will play at all at the weekend but will be back after IB

                5. TSN
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  I'm keeping him and playing with two midfielder this week (have harrison on my team).

              15. yiidddoo
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                best 6.0 million mid to own this game week? other than wolves players***

                1. Sun Jihai
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Trossard maybe

                2. KAPTAIN KANE
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Pereira

                3. yiidddoo
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  cheers, currently on townsend but i like the trossard shout especially considering no Allan and Gomes...

              16. Manani
                • 9 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                we expecting Brewster to start when fit right? Not this GW obviously, but after

                1. Sun Jihai
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Yep. Him alongside McBurnie or Burke initially.

              17. sentz05
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 29 days ago

                Barnes or J Rod?

                1. Bobby Digital
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 29 days ago

                  Barnes