How underlying statistics can help cut through variance of FPL this season

Cash looks really good imo.

Cresswell

Mitro to Maupay.

We're in similar boats. Guess you've gotta look at Mitro and Podence as your holes. Watkins and roll the other one?

I'm:

Martinez (McCarthy)
TAA, Saiss, Justin (Dier, Lacelles)
KDB, Salah, Son, Podence (Bissouma)
Ings, DCL, Mitro

and can only think of changing Mitro for 1 FT, and 2 or 3 of TAA/Podence/Mitro if i want a shake up.

I would transfer Mitro for someone like Antonio, or maybe Bruno to Salah.

He did good for me for a few weeks. Happy to get rid for Grealish now 🙂

There is no filter for racist comments on twitter ??

It must be a hell !?

Its a combination of fixtures and form. Fulham have great fixtures, but people sell Mitrovic. WHU have great form, but people sell Soucek and did not see people getting Bowen. Doesnt need too much skill to have a midfield of Son, KDB, Salah, Rodriguez despite the form and fixtures. Its all about the skill and hunch i d say.

Stats are there to show form, favourable fixtures are announced every week but nobody can blame the KDB captainers last week. It was a very logical move and someone who did a not logical move and captained Son could be the leader of a league now.

Fixtures for me are useful for defence, although cs points are very rare and random at this point. When you have teams like MCI, Che, teams that can have 5-6 different goalscorers its very difficult to predict which player will haul. Safest bet is going with players from teams who have 2-3 possible goalscorers but those teams usually score less goals.

Totally agree with your Home - Away comment, for me this season away team has a slight advantage since the home team has more pressure and no fans.

Nice one, which players now should we target for the next 5 GWs based on that analysis?

Yeah, I like the predicted table at FiveThirtyEight -- it gradually moves teams up or down based on their results by a reasonable amount. Based on my limited understanding of Bayesian statistics, that's how Bayesian statisticians make predictions:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/?ex_cid=rrpromo

An appropriate FDR currently seems like we should ignore home/away and just say something like:
5: MCI, LIV
4: CHE, TOT, LEI, MUN (arguably lower if bad results continue), EVE, ARS
3: AVL, WOL, WHU, SOU, BHA, LEE
2: CRY, NEW, BUR, SHU
1: FUL, WBA

We'll have a pretty clear picture by GW 38 imo.

I'm beginning to think that he might not be very good or cut out for this level

Not an owner but he does seem to get chances. Probably would keep unless on a wildcard or have no other transfer to make

Looks lively and been "victim" of a couple of great saves but Will remove when I have a FT

Cheers everyone

He'll play. Doesn't mean he'll score though

Even if he/they can't score against Fulham, still better than any 4.5 mid.

He is certainly bought to play, but is he ready and match fit enough to start this game?

Have you seen Brewster play? Robbery by Liverpool IMO - that kid is not a premiership level striker. Sheffield Utd should have spent less on Arsenal's Balogun, who is much sharper and actually ready to take this step up.

You telling that to yourself ?
🙂

Go for it

If this is based on their last result, Adrian wasn’t the reason they got smashed. He was only at fault for the first goal. The rest were a combination of poor defending from a high line and wicked deflections.

Well put. Liverpool got away with not having a backup keeper last season, but it's clear now that after Watford disrobed them, opponents are not intimidated anymore, and are having a crack. Alison has a phenomenal save percentage and his contribution to Liverpool's success is underestimated.

Adrian was not even good enough to be backup to Fabianski at West Ham, so why Liverpool is being so stupid as to throw away points by putting him in goal, I really cant understand.

Go for it. Come back when Trent scores a direct free kick and gets 15 points!

Tony will get you nothing if suspended - Brighton guy? Or that plus Werner out for Kane for a -4 probably worth it.

It is either that or rethink double Spurs or lose Robbo.

Defo Puli to Grealish imo. Any number of Chelsea players could score the goals, whereas Grealish is the talisman and most things go through him. Nice fixtures coming up too. Or go Zaha for a few games before Grealish in GW9?

livefpl?

Probably Ferguson, likely to take Ward's place when fit.

Dunne