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Pro Pundits - Holly

How underlying statistics can help cut through variance of FPL this season

It has been the most remarkable start to a Fantasy Premier League season in recent memory and arguably the hardest to predict accurately. So what now for FPL managers?

There has been a bucket-load of goals, an abundance of penalties, and yet so many of us are struggling to gain real traction in the Fantasy rankings.

As each team has come into the campaign with different preparations, and some even starting on a Blank Gameweek has hampered transfer progress for Fantasy managers and robbed us of easy access to consistent trends.

But the Fantasy Football Scout Premium Members Area holds the key for isolating these from the perspective of underlying statistics.

Delving deeper into the data yields greater clarity on the reliable trends for our FPL sides going forward as we try to pinpoint our transfers and potential wildcard plans for Gameweek 5 and beyond…

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587 Comments Post a Comment
  1. balint84
    • 4 Years
    23 days, 7 hours ago

    recommended 5.0 defender?

    A) Zouma
    B) Keane
    C) Cash

    1. 2OLEgend
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      Cash looks really good imo.

    2. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      Cresswell

  2. 2OLEgend
    23 days, 7 hours ago

    I have no idea what to do with my 2FT. Don't want to sell TAA, KDB or Bruno just yet.
    I've got 2mil ITB - any suggestions?

    Team is:
    McCarthy (Steer)
    TAA, Saiss, Taylor (Ayling, Mitchell)
    KDB, Bruno, Son, Podence (Bissouma)
    Vardy, DCL, Mitro

    Thanks 🙂

    1. Zrinkec
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      Mitro to Maupay.

    2. Black Knights
      • 8 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      We're in similar boats. Guess you've gotta look at Mitro and Podence as your holes. Watkins and roll the other one?

      I'm:

      Martinez (McCarthy)
      TAA, Saiss, Justin (Dier, Lacelles)
      KDB, Salah, Son, Podence (Bissouma)
      Ings, DCL, Mitro

      and can only think of changing Mitro for 1 FT, and 2 or 3 of TAA/Podence/Mitro if i want a shake up.

    3. KneejerkJoe
      • 6 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      I would transfer Mitro for someone like Antonio, or maybe Bruno to Salah.

  3. Miguel Sanchez
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    23 days, 7 hours ago

    Confidence inspiring for Zaha owners.

    https://twitter.com/wilfriedzaha/status/1314148671156555776

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      He did good for me for a few weeks. Happy to get rid for Grealish now 🙂

    2. Amey
      • 2 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      There is no filter for racist comments on twitter ??

      It must be a hell !?

      1. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        23 days, 7 hours ago

        Their is no filter on social media except dog and cat filter

        1. Amey
          • 2 Years
          23 days, 7 hours ago

          Don't like it at all

      2. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        23 days, 7 hours ago

        The sooner they have to link IDs to social media accounts the better but then that opens up a whole new world of data the social media companies will have access to.

        1. Amey
          • 2 Years
          23 days, 7 hours ago

          It's simply pathetic. I don't like Twitter at all !

  4. Camzy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    23 days, 7 hours ago

    Bottomed.

    I'm seeing some debate come up about fixtures vs form again. We have this debate every year. Inevitably someone defies the fixtures and goes on a hot streak and then everyone says fixtures don't matter any more.

    I don't think that's the case. I think what is the case, is that we are not evaluating the fixtures correctly.

    Home and away advantage is much diminished this year, so I would amend the fixture ticker to give the home team a much slimmer advantage. A team's absolute strength is now a bigger determining factor.

    Everton, Villa and West Ham off the back of their strong results should be given upgrades in terms of fixture difficulty, Sheffield United, Fulham, West Brom and Burnley given feeder status. The latter 4 are particularly good to target for defensive returns.

    More trends will show, but once we can actually know who the good and bad teams are, we can work on our fixture tickers and target the bad ones.

    1. skodaole2
      • 8 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      Its a combination of fixtures and form. Fulham have great fixtures, but people sell Mitrovic. WHU have great form, but people sell Soucek and did not see people getting Bowen. Doesnt need too much skill to have a midfield of Son, KDB, Salah, Rodriguez despite the form and fixtures. Its all about the skill and hunch i d say.

      Stats are there to show form, favourable fixtures are announced every week but nobody can blame the KDB captainers last week. It was a very logical move and someone who did a not logical move and captained Son could be the leader of a league now.

      Fixtures for me are useful for defence, although cs points are very rare and random at this point. When you have teams like MCI, Che, teams that can have 5-6 different goalscorers its very difficult to predict which player will haul. Safest bet is going with players from teams who have 2-3 possible goalscorers but those teams usually score less goals.

      Totally agree with your Home - Away comment, for me this season away team has a slight advantage since the home team has more pressure and no fans.

    2. Magic Zico
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      Nice one, which players now should we target for the next 5 GWs based on that analysis?

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        23 days, 7 hours ago

        I made a personalized ticker basically ramping up Everton, Villa, West Ham, lowering Burnley, Sheff Utd.

        Which gives: Fulham, CPL, Chelsea and Wolves as the top 4 teams to target for fixtures in the next 5. Spurs would be 2nd if it's just the next 4 (they play City in GW9).

    3. Major League Shocker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      23 days, 6 hours ago

      Yeah, I like the predicted table at FiveThirtyEight -- it gradually moves teams up or down based on their results by a reasonable amount. Based on my limited understanding of Bayesian statistics, that's how Bayesian statisticians make predictions:

      https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/?ex_cid=rrpromo

      An appropriate FDR currently seems like we should ignore home/away and just say something like:
      5: MCI, LIV
      4: CHE, TOT, LEI, MUN (arguably lower if bad results continue), EVE, ARS
      3: AVL, WOL, WHU, SOU, BHA, LEE
      2: CRY, NEW, BUR, SHU
      1: FUL, WBA

    4. Gnu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      23 days, 2 hours ago

      We'll have a pretty clear picture by GW 38 imo.

  5. Pep Roulette
    • 3 Years
    23 days, 7 hours ago

    Any Adams owner who's still keeping? Can I ask why?

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      I'm beginning to think that he might not be very good or cut out for this level

    2. jay01
      • 6 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      Not an owner but he does seem to get chances. Probably would keep unless on a wildcard or have no other transfer to make

    3. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 3 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      Looks lively and been "victim" of a couple of great saves but Will remove when I have a FT

    4. Pep Roulette
      • 3 Years
      23 days, 6 hours ago

      Cheers everyone

  6. jay01
    • 6 Years
    23 days, 7 hours ago

    No way Sheffield spent £23 million for a striker to warm their bench when they have only scored one goal this season. I have Brewster from the start (no wc played). Hes definitely in my 11 this week vs fulham.

    Brewster brace incoming imo.

    1. Amey
      • 2 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      He'll play. Doesn't mean he'll score though

      1. jay01
        • 6 Years
        23 days, 7 hours ago

        Ofc but its football he has every chance to score. I think he will

    2. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 3 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      Even if he/they can't score against Fulham, still better than any 4.5 mid.

      1. jay01
        • 6 Years
        23 days, 7 hours ago

        Yeah great enabler, but i think he will score on opening debut

    3. KneejerkJoe
      • 6 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      He is certainly bought to play, but is he ready and match fit enough to start this game?

      1. Camzy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        23 days, 7 hours ago

        Why not? I think he'll play.

        1. KneejerkJoe
          • 6 Years
          23 days, 6 hours ago

          Because he is young and inexperienced in PL, with not many minutes of gametime the last weeks. Also its a new team.

          Im just asking tho, really hope he plays, cause I got him in my starting 11 right now!

          1. Camzy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            23 days, 6 hours ago

            They paid 25M quid for him. He is going straight into the team.

    4. KingKanu
      • 1 Year
      22 days, 4 hours ago

      Have you seen Brewster play? Robbery by Liverpool IMO - that kid is not a premiership level striker. Sheffield Utd should have spent less on Arsenal's Balogun, who is much sharper and actually ready to take this step up.

  7. jay01
    • 6 Years
    23 days, 7 hours ago

    IB points check..

    After 4 weeks of fpl, what would you say for overall points is a:
    A) great score
    B) average score
    C) below average score

  8. gauzah
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    23 days, 7 hours ago

    Trent is not worth 7.5 with Adrian in goal. Clean sheet potential is diminished and the attacking stats are not great either.
    Chillwell at 5.6 the likely replacement for me.

    1. Amey
      • 2 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      You telling that to yourself ?
      🙂

      1. gauzah
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        23 days, 7 hours ago

        I'm telling you.

        1. Amey
          • 2 Years
          23 days, 7 hours ago

          Thanks. No thanks 😉

    2. jay01
      • 6 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      Go for it

      1. gauzah
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        23 days, 7 hours ago

        I will watch them against Everton and make a decision. Any funny business from Adrian and I will be selling.

    3. COK3Y5MURF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      23 days, 6 hours ago

      If this is based on their last result, Adrian wasn’t the reason they got smashed. He was only at fault for the first goal. The rest were a combination of poor defending from a high line and wicked deflections.

    4. KingKanu
      • 1 Year
      22 days, 3 hours ago

      Well put. Liverpool got away with not having a backup keeper last season, but it's clear now that after Watford disrobed them, opponents are not intimidated anymore, and are having a crack. Alison has a phenomenal save percentage and his contribution to Liverpool's success is underestimated.

      Adrian was not even good enough to be backup to Fabianski at West Ham, so why Liverpool is being so stupid as to throw away points by putting him in goal, I really cant understand.

    5. Goodison Gladiators
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      20 days, 8 hours ago

      Go for it. Come back when Trent scores a direct free kick and gets 15 points!

  9. wilson007
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    23 days, 7 hours ago

    McCarthy Steer
    TAA Justin Taylor Mitchell Vinagre*
    Salah KDB JRod Soucek Bissouma
    Werner DCL Martial*

    1FT 0.0 ITB

    Thoughts?

    Thanks guys 🙂

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 3 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      Tony will get you nothing if suspended - Brighton guy? Or that plus Werner out for Kane for a -4 probably worth it.

  10. Captain_Shirokov
    • 2 Years
    23 days, 7 hours ago

    I hit the button, couldn't look at my team any longer. Team value is poor. Help me cut 1.4m from this WC team:

    Martinez, 4m
    Robertson, Chilwell, Saiss, Ayling, Mitchell
    Salah, Son, Pulisic, Rodriguez
    Kane, DCL, Maupay

    Current option would be Pulisic to Grealish, but I think I much prefer Puli.

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 3 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      It is either that or rethink double Spurs or lose Robbo.

    2. Tony Moon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      22 days, 18 hours ago

      Defo Puli to Grealish imo. Any number of Chelsea players could score the goals, whereas Grealish is the talisman and most things go through him. Nice fixtures coming up too. Or go Zaha for a few games before Grealish in GW9?

  11. New Article Posted
  12. Alexis Nonsense
    • 4 Years
    23 days, 7 hours ago

    Considering I have missed 3 out of 4 captain choices so far, 1m rank is not the worst

    Where can I see the amount of points up to top 10k etc?

    Thanks

    1. Fulchester's New Centr…
      • 3 Years
      23 days, 7 hours ago

      livefpl?

  13. Tartanjock
    • 4 Years
    23 days, 6 hours ago

    Ryan
    Coleman Saiss James
    Salah De Bruyne Hamez Fernandes
    Kane Wilson Brewster

    Button Bissouma Lamptey Mitchell

    Not sure if James will get a game but happy for Lamps to replace.
    Low level defence but too many goals going in.
    I think I'll let Brewster start seeing its against Fulham. I know they've not got a good goal scoring record but that's why they've bought him.

  14. Fit_to_drop
    • 1 Year
    23 days, 6 hours ago

    Votes Please

    WC Team A or B? KDB or Sterling almost same price so will decide before deadline day. Thanks.

    A: Martinez
    Saiss Robbo* Chilwell
    Son Grealish* Hamez* KDB/Sterling
    DCL Kane Antonio

    Forster ASM* Mitchell Kilman

    B: Martinez
    Saiss Castagne* Chilwell
    Son McGinn* Salah* KDB/Sterling
    DCL Kane Antonio

    Forster Bissouma* Mitchell Kilman

  15. I SPEAK ENGELS AND DRINK GI…
    • 1 Year
    23 days, 5 hours ago

    Who would be the best defender to replace Mitchell? 4.1m max

    1. St Pauli Walnuts
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      22 days, 23 hours ago

      Probably Ferguson, likely to take Ward's place when fit.

    2. KingKanu
      • 1 Year
      22 days, 3 hours ago

      Dunne

  16. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    22 days, 23 hours ago

    Sigurdsson 2nd goal. 2-0 Iceland - Romenia

  17. wslnpt
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    21 days, 3 hours ago

    Thoughts on this WC?

    McCarthy
    Ayling - Castagne - Chilwell

    Salah - Hamez - Son - Grealish - Barnes

    Kane - DCL

    (4.0 - Brewster - Mitchell - Kilman).

    2.2 ITB here.