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Football Index

Football Index: In-form Grealish winning dividends on and off the field


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It’s been a season of wild unpredictability so far, and that doesn’t look like changing any time soon.

Even my Football Index dealings have managed to stumble into the latest, and equally unforeseen, footballing subplot that is the England creative midfielder debate.

For those of you who are new to the concept, Football Index is a kind of stock market where people use real money to bet on football.

You buy shares in individual players whose value can rise or fall depending on their performance both on and off the field.

I bet on Chelsea midfielder Mason Mount before the international break. In fact, I bought him before Chelsea stuffed Crystal Palace 4-0, with the following note made at the time:

Available for £2.23, quick sell £1.70 – offered to buy shares at £2. Offer accepted.

Risky when all Chelsea’s new men are fit, but Frank Lampard has consistently backed him and Chelsea have a good schedule.

That plan immediately backfired as Lampard ‘consistently backed him’ to stay on the bench throughout the win over the Eagles.

But help has been at hand with the international break and the media’s fixation with England boss Gareth Southgate’s preference for my man over ‘New Gazza’, Jack Grealish.

All the talk of that – and his lucky looping winner against Belgium – has resulted in some Media Dividends over the international break for the Chelsea midfielder, with his price still well above what I paid.

Grealish, however, is another matter entirely.

Mount’s returns have been modest, whereas profit in the Villa man has been huge.

When I added him to my watchlist, he was available for £2.63 a share. He’s now valued at around the £4 mark – a rise of about 50%. Even if I’d bet on him at his stated price, rather than sniffing around for a deal with fellow traders, I could do an instant sell as I type and earn over a pound per share in profit.

A star turn against Liverpool, an excellent England debut and all the yadda yadda over his non-selection for the Belgium game have combined to make Grealish one of the hottest FI properties at present.

The soap opera over his international future will add some spice, but his bread and butter returns remain rooted in the Premier League.

Villa’s next four matches (before another international break) are a mixed bag, with Leicester and Arsenal away and home matches with Leeds and Southampton, but their 7-2 win over Liverpool makes Dean Smith’s side look dangerously fixture-proof.

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And Grealish’s numbers are equally enticing. Among midfielders who have played three times this season, only Kevin De Bruyne and Sadio Mane have managed more attempts than the Villa talisman’s nine, while the Man City playmaker also betters him for chances created (14 v 10), although Grealish has three assists to the Belgian’s one.

Mount meanwhile, has also had nine shots, but just one assist from six chances created and, damningly, one goal to Grealish’s three.

Chelsea’s short-term schedule is similar to Villa’s – home games with Southampton and Sheffield United, trips to Man United and Burnley – so it’s a matter of whether I stick with Lampard’s protégé to see if the Blues can kick on from a patchy start or gamble on the Villans being able to sustain their early-season perfection.

One thing is for sure – Villa have done some astute transfer business, taking some of the attacking strain off Grealish.

So the likes of Ross Barkley (£1.27) will also need monitoring, especially as Smith’s men are, as a general rule, considerably cheaper than Lampard’s on FI.

Personally, probably foolishly, but entirely in line with the latest footballing controversy, I’m currently leaning towards favouring one of the ‘big six’ and betting on Chelsea improving and Villa having peaked.

My heart says Grealish, my head (and portfolio) say Mount. Time will tell which bet wins out.


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369 Comments Post a Comment
  1. baines is god
    • 8 Years
    9 days, 4 hours ago

    I've had a good start to the season. 275 points. I used two transfers this week to bring in Son and Maupey for Mount and Ings.

    My team currently is
    McCarthy Nyland
    TAA Robbo Justin Shaw Vinagre
    Stephens Romeu Salah Son Podence
    Kane Maupey Vardy

    However I think it has a lot of weaknesses, Shaw rotation risk, Vinagre gone, two L-pool defenders when they're not keeping clean sheets. Two 4.5m midfielders. Podence not producing etc.

    I know it's very early and perhaps knee-jerky. However I am considering wildcarding to.

    Ryan Nyland
    Lamptey Saiss Semedo Mitchell Taylor
    Son Salah Zaha Grealish Rodriguez
    Kane Maupey Bamford

    Should I do it or is my original team strong enough?

    1. Major League Shocker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 4 hours ago

      Not needed, you should have done it at the start of the IB if you wanted to WC.

    2. ReindeerHotdog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 4 hours ago

      You posted this exact comment like 15 minutes ago.

      If you're that bored whack on the TV - Judge Rinder is on ITV1 and Countdown is just starting on Channel 4.

      You've got options anyway.

      1. baines is god
        • 8 Years
        9 days, 3 hours ago

        i got basically no feedback. Why at the start of the IB. Before price moves? I wanted to wait and see. I think my side looks short as it stands

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      9 days, 3 hours ago

      I'd ride out this week. If you're still not happy, WC next week for the GW6 fixture swing.

      This week isn't great for a WC and you've missed all the price rises anyway.

  2. Shark Team
    • 3 Years
    9 days, 4 hours ago

    Anyone knows anything about Egan's availability and what happened?

    1. Major League Shocker
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 4 hours ago

      I think he's isolating due to COVID cases in the Ireland team. Might play if he tests negative?

  3. Von Lipwig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    9 days, 4 hours ago

    Obviously wait for press conferences, but do we think Lamptey is likely to be fit?

    1. Tony Moon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      8 days, 14 hours ago

      Yes

  4. abaalan
    • 4 Years
    9 days, 4 hours ago

    on WC (5th mid / 3rd striker in brackets):
    A) DCL + Barkley + (Bissouma)
    B) (Brewster) + Trossard + Grealish
    C) Watkins + Grealish + (Bissouma)

    Also have Maupay..

    1. Fuddled FC
      • 8 Years
      9 days, 4 hours ago

      A, C, B

  5. Fuddled FC
    • 8 Years
    9 days, 4 hours ago

    Which combo would you prefer?

    a) Soucek & Kane
    b) Grealish & Werner

    1. ReindeerHotdog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      9 days, 4 hours ago

      I'd be more tempted by Watkins and Son to be honest.

      Watkins is so appealing with both Grealish and Barkley behind him as well as McGinn/Courihane.

      Son the better Spurs option due to being cheaper and every goal being worth 1pt more than Kane. Kane seems to be less explosive than Son, too.

      1. Better off with a pin and a…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        9 days, 3 hours ago

        I'm not convinved by that assessment of Son being better than Kane. Kane has pens and if Bale is fit and firing he will increase Kane's output more than Son's. Kane's only 1 point behind Son so far this season, despite all that Son has done.

        1. COK3Y5MURF
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          9 days, 3 hours ago

          Kane's points per 90 last season was less than Son's and yet costs 1.5m more which is a joke. A whole season is a reliable sample size, unlike 4 weeks.

          1. Better off with a pin and a…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            9 days, 3 hours ago

            I was just about to say that last season was the first time that had been true, but on checking it turns out it isn't. Son has outperformed Kane in points/90 over all the last few seasons, which I was a bit surprised at. So, actually, I was wrong - if you have to pick one, Son probably is the right one. Think with the upcoming fixtures the double-up is also a good idea for the next few weeks, though.

            1. COK3Y5MURF
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 4 Years
              9 days, 3 hours ago

              Yep. The only difference so far this season is that Kane has been racking up the assists. He's never been an assister before with only 2 and 6 assists in his last two seasons, but he's got 6 this season already. If that continues, it may increase his appeal, but it doesn't help if he assists Son every time.

        2. ReindeerHotdog
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          9 days, 3 hours ago

          It's just my opinion based on the last couple of seasons, current form and Son being as good as he is.

          For 9m he's represents at least competitive value relative to Kane.

          Hard to judge too much based on just four games. In a season with so much unpredictability that extra bit of money looks invaluable.

          I can understand why people would go for Kane though, obviously. I'd be careful making the assumption that because a player is penalties it means they're a better option than their teammates.

          Expected goals in normal time is an important metric that shouldn't be overlooked.

          But really at this point I'm not sure there's much between them as I'm not sure there's much to gain from over-analysing it.

          Main reason for me to say Son (I have neither in my team) is I'm confident the extra 1pt per goal plus money saved will yield a similar return to Kane if not better.

          1. baines is god
            • 8 Years
            9 days, 2 hours ago

            when's Bale expected to start playing

  6. Zrinkec
    9 days, 3 hours ago

    Well Chilwell and Semedo are in my WC, making me think twice do not know what to do.

  7. Captain_Shirokov
    • 2 Years
    9 days, 3 hours ago

    Based on a comment I received on the last page (thanks!):

    A) James Rodriguez + Ben Chilwell
    or
    B) Christian Pulisic + Kurt Zouma

    1. baines is god
      • 8 Years
      9 days, 2 hours ago

      B

  8. baines is god
    • 8 Years
    9 days, 3 hours ago

    Haven't played fantasy football properly since 2011/12.
    One thing people always talk about now is price risers. I get it's an advantage to have an expensive squad so later in the season you can buy more players. However is it that important. I came 20,000th in 2010/11 and 4,000th in 11/12 without even thinking once about price rises.

  9. Goodricke
    • 4 Years
    9 days, 2 hours ago

    Zaha or Grealish?

    1. slavkob
      • 3 Years
      9 days, 2 hours ago

      I will give Zaha one more chance, of he blanks vs Brighton I'll go with Jack.

      1. slavkob
        • 3 Years
        9 days, 2 hours ago

        If*

      2. Hy liverpool
        • 6 Years
        9 days, 2 hours ago

        Even before fulham?

    2. FC Hakkebøf
      • 3 Years
      9 days, 2 hours ago

      Fixtures.. Zaha
      Form.. Grealish