Pro Pundit Teams

Loss aversion and why we hold on to underperforming players in FPL

In my previous article, I discussed the difficulties we often find in transferring out players who have been performing well, even when it might appear beneficial for us to do so. 

However, sometimes we hold on to players too long even when they’re not doing well. This article is the Part One of a two-piece series that will consider the possible causes for that behaviour and how we might overcome them to make better transfer decisions.

Loss Aversion

Loss aversion is a cognitive bias in humans that describes our tendency to fear losses more than we value gains. Specifically, scientific studies have shown that we fear losses approximately twice as much as we value gains. 

This probably explains why we’re reluctant to take hits on players who are unlikely to ‘explode’, but it also goes some way to explaining why we hold on to underperforming players too long.

Arguably the number one source of anxiety among Fantasy managers comes from transferring a player out who you suspect might suddenly start scoring, something that always seems to happen. 

The hundreds of thousands of managers who transferred Timo Werner (£9.3m) out ahead of his two goals and assist in Gameweek 5 can probably relate to this feeling. It is, essentially, a feeling of points lost. Because we anticipate this feeling, we fail to act as a result.

Warped Reality

In reality, players we transfer out probably don’t score nearly as often as we think, we just remember the instances when they do, thus mentally inflating their frequency. It also doesn’t necessarily become a bad action to have removed a previously underperforming player, just because that player suddenly decides to start scoring that Gameweek.

While it might feel like this kind of thing is a matter of luck, one of the key skill elements of FPL is identifying the contextual factors that influence whether a player will score or not. 

Taking Werner as an example again, he had been previously playing out of position on the left wing and a move to the central striker position seemingly improved his prospects. However, he was also playing against a Southampton team who played a high defensive line, something that suits pacy players like Werner. 

Therefore, if either or both of these conditions are removed, it’s possible that Werner will go back to underperforming. The skill, therefore, is figuring out what conditions are important to the prospects of a player, and whether they will be consistently present.

If the conditions that contributed to a player’s sudden change in form are not sustainable, managers who transferred them out should not lose sleep over their decision, particularly if it enabled a move to an alternative with better long-term prospects. The spectre of this occurring should also not deter a manager from making a move if it makes objective sense based on whatever standards they employ to make their decisions.

It’s not because of you

Most importantly, although it might feel like it, a player did not start scoring because you transferred them out. That kind of ‘magical thinking’ can quickly sabotage a Fantasy manager’s season as it removes logic and objectivity and puts events firmly into the hands of chance. 

Stick to your trusted methods and, if they happen to fail you one Gameweek, console yourself with the knowledge that it absolutely, definitely, happens to everyone.

In Part Two, I’ll be discussing the ‘Endowment Effect’, coffee mugs, and why we sometimes prefer our low performers to others’ high performers.

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1,687 Comments Post a Comment
  1. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 1 day ago

    Best move now with Jrod injury;

    A. Davies >> Robbo (4-4-2)
    B. Davis >> Antonio / Watkins / Maupay (3-4-3)
    C. Davis+Bissouma >> Watkins+Barkley/Tross (-4)

    McCarthy
    TAA, Mitchell, Saiss
    Pulisic, Salah, Rodríguez**, Son,
    DCL, Ings
    (Nyland, Biss, Justin, XXX)

    1. Chelsea91
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      B with Maupay.

    2. waltzingmatildas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      I'd do B, antonio

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Fixtures are terrible though?

        1. waltzingmatildas
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          They are, but I think he can still get something. Underlying stats are there

    3. The Handsome Hunk
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      B.

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Who with matey?

    4. Gunner Boy
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      B with Maupay

  2. mrtapio
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 1 day ago

    Start Chilwell or Kilman?

    Brewster befor or after Chilwell/Kilman on bench?

    1. Chelsea91
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Chill

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Chill also

    3. Gunner Boy
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Chilwell

  3. G Banger
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 1 day ago

    Morning, bench order correct on this?

    Martinez
    Chillwell, TAA, Semedo, PVA
    Salah, Hamez**, Son, Grealish
    Kane, DCL

    Brewster, Mitchell, Stephens

    1. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Mitchell 1st imo

    2. Chelsea91
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Mitchell first on bench they are against Fulham

    3. G Banger
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Cheers both

  4. Fernando Torres
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 1 day ago

    Bench one...

    A) Bale
    B) Wilson
    C) James Rodr

    1. Chelsea91
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Bale firs bench

    2. WE GO FOR IT
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      C

      1. WE GO FOR IT
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Actually, A

    3. SUPER 11
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      C wont play

    4. No Professionals
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Don’t understand how you can have bale and be benching him for that fixture

  5. LIARS POKER
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 1 day ago

    Best replacement for Ben Davies?

    1. Chelsea91
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Lamptey

    2. Hotdogs for Tea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      the player at Spurs who has just taken his place?

    3. WE GO FOR IT
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Looking for a Doherty replacement. I'm between Konsa and Lamptey.
      Currently on Konsa as he lets me get Ziyech next week.

      1. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Aurier

        1. WE GO FOR IT
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          I think they both would be rotated. So, no point picking either.

    4. SUPER 11
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Mings

  6. RIDZ
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 1 day ago

    Anyone keep James even though you have DCL?

    1. nikzgfx
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Yes

    2. Chelsea91
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      hold

    3. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      no, never owned him!

    4. Hotdogs for Tea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      might just be a hoax to take the heat of Pickford ... ‘look VVD injured a Liverpool player too’ type of thing

  7. waltzingmatildas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 1 day ago

    Bottom,
    GTG? Right bench order?
    Mccarthy
    TAA mitchell ayling
    Sterling Bruno son soucek
    Kane(c) dcl antonio
    (Button bissouma ctaylor James)

    1. Chelsea91
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      gtg

  8. Hotdogs for Tea
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 1 day ago

    Gomez for Liverpool ... now nailed and up for corners with VVD out, Klopp keeping a defensive mid in front of the defence, TAA sitting back and defending, nice fixtures ... a bargain at 5.4? 😉

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Isn’t Matip more of a threat from set pieces?

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        not sure Matip will start

        1. Miguel Sanchez
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Prob not but Gomez hasn’t scored in PL before. Does he even go up for corners?

    2. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      I don't remeber whne was the las time he scored more than 6 points
      0 attacking thread for 5.4.
      Nah

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        I don’t remember the last time he played without VVD going up for corners though

        1. Peter Ouch
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          I hope you are right but I doubt mate!

    3. Tinkermania
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Are you saying you expecting more attacking returns from Gomez than TAA? No disrespect but that's wishful thinking.

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        no i am not lol ... just saying that Gomez will have a greater attacking threat now with VVD out whilst playing alongside Fabinho

    4. FPLHaggis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      I briefly considered Gomez on WC. There is an argument to say that he is now value at 5.4m, but only if nailed and Liverpool reach their benchmark of approx. 15 clean sheets.

      But I see a regression in clean sheets.
      Injury prone.
      Matip will go up for corners, unsure if he will be up if paired with Fabinho.
      Hard to see him in the BAPs conversation

      1. Hotdogs for Tea
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        same, on Wild Card and looking at options and thinking out of the box. Maybe I should throw away the box instead 🙂

    5. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Was he up for set pieces? He might be a good alternative but in Matip they have another one. If they be a pair matip is the one to have. Pool have decent fixtures to come so maybe. Alisson also back so that might help

  9. andres
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 1 day ago

    Already took a hit.... no bench and james out... play WC?

    McCarthy (Nyland)
    Taa konsa mitchell (justin, holding)
    salah son hamez* podence (stephens)
    DCL Jimi kane
    0.3, 0 FT.

    1. Hotdogs for Tea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      yip

    2. mox81
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Only if you know what you'll do with it... team looks good already! I'd spend 4 pts on replacing Justin/Holding and know that you'll likely recoup 2pts min and poss do better. Kilman, Lamptey etc have a good fixture?

    3. bench boost for every gamew…
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Normally not a hit but you have potentially some issues in def soon, so Holding for a nailed on def could save you some trouble in the future.

  10. mrtapio
    • 5 Years
    1 month, 1 day ago

    Kilman or Brewster first on bench? (likely to play for Rodriguez)

    1. Miguel Sanchez
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Kilman - another 9 pointer incoming

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Brewster

    3. SUPER 11
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Kilman

    4. Hotdogs for Tea
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      doubt Brewster will start

  11. Jdpz
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Play
      A) Tierney
      B) Justin

    • Remo85
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 1 day ago

      People thinking Mahrez on the bench or getting a start?

      1. Machine_Gunnerz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        1 month, 1 day ago

        i thought he should be starting. No one else to take his position except torres

    • RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Do you rate Salah as a more explosive captain option than Kane?

      1. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Both explosive

      2. Peter Ouch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        yes

      3. adr3nalin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Goal scoring mid vs goal scoring striker. I say Salah for this week

    • adr3nalin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Anyone think Palace defence will be good for the next 8 or so? Not many clean sheets but not conceded too many either.

      I have Mitchell and Sakho currently but neither are safe picks anymore.

      Do I switch to ward or cahill (only have 4.5 to spend), although Cahill also just back from injury.

      Or do I double up on Villa defence and bring in Targett (have Emi in goals).

      Or wait and see?

      Thanks!

      1. SUPER 11
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        PVA is worth looking as he can score couple of goals in the next 8 and lucky cleansheets in between

        1. adr3nalin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Can't afford him

    • SUPER 11
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Anyone considering Benrahma after GW7 ?

      1. Hot Fuzz
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Hell yeah but have first to see how he is fitting in and minutes wise

    • sneif4
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Wildcard look good?

      4.0 Martinez
      James Mitchell Castagne Saiss Digne
      Zaha Grealish Son Rodriguez 4.4
      Kane DCL Ings

      2.9 ITB

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        I don't like it

        1. waltzingmatildas
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Sorry pressed post too soon!
          Don't like the defence, needs another big hitter in midfield I think.

          1. sneif4
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            I would have settled for your first post! Why don't you like the defence? I agree about midfield though, think I probably need another big hitter

            1. Inazuma X1
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 1 day ago

              James is not nailed. Digne is overpriced.

            2. waltzingmatildas
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 1 day ago

              James - I have but looking to lose.
              Maybe too much money there? I'd downgrade one, and maybe ings to upgrade zaha

      2. Hotdogs for Tea
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        James Mitchell & 4.4 won’t start - you don’t have a bench at all

      3. Hotdogs for Tea
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        downgrade Ings and upgrade 4.4 and defence

      4. skodaole2
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        James and Mitchell in WC defence i wouldnt agree. Rodriguez is injured, no point at all to take him. I d change the two James's definitely

      5. DantheManinaPan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Nope

        1. sneif4
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Thanks for all the advice. I think I put this together too hastily!

    • The Overthinker
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      On WC which is better
      A) kane , 4.5,3.9
      B) Brewster,Son,konsa/bellarin

      1. Gandalf
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        B

    • LIARS POKER
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Is Grealish worth 1.2 more than Barkley? Or Barkley at 6.0 the better value pick?

      1. Good Times
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Stats justify grealish if say, doesn't mean Barkley won't get points. Also depends how you use the money

      2. skodaole2
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Depends what you d do with this extra 1.2, i d say Barkley is worth it due to low ownership

    • skodaole2
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Would you take a hit here to bench Justin?

      Martinez
      Targett Rob Castagne Justin
      Salah Son Pereira
      Kane Jimenez Mitrovic

      McCarthy Dier* James R.* Reed 0FT 0.6 ITB

      a) No hits, play double LEI def vs ARS
      b) Take a hit to remove Dier
      c) Take a hit to remove James R.
      d) Take two hits to bring in Kilman and Havertz and play no LEI defence
      e) Anything else

      1. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 1 day ago

        How did you end up with double Leicester? Swap one of them for a Palace defender who is nailed.

    • Inazuma X1
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Mitchell will start right?

      1. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 1 day ago

        No, left back 😉

      2. Miguel Sanchez
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        I think PVA starts this one and Mitchell comes on in the second half

        1. Indpush
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Last week I thought PVA would come in for a spell in the second half. Now I agree with you. Could still come out in the second half but I'm leaning to him starting

      3. Aston VII lalalala
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Everyone is saying PVA starts ahead of Mitchell, but he's had zero minutes. Has anyone got any data saying this is possible after long term injury?

        1. Indpush
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Data on it being possible? How would it possibly be impossible?

          1. Aston VII lalalala
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            He hasn't played a game of football in over 3 months. You think you can just come straight back and play 60 minutes?

            Most players are eased back by coming on as substitutes.

            Unless you can find me an example of someone who didn't play 3 months of fooball and then played in the starting 11?

            1. Indpush
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 1 day ago

              I'm not at my computer at the moment to access that particular data file on 3 month long injured players starting their first game back so we will have to wait on that.

              I will say with great confidence though that it is not impossible he starts and even if data shows it's never happened before, which seems unlikely.

              Although your intimated point that it is a rare occurrence or that it may have never happened, is logical, I still believe he will start. He has had another week after being on the bench to train and I suspect it was turned up a notch for him to ready him for the start.

    • Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 1 day ago

      A Brewster goal this weekend and that price is only going one way

      1. bench boost for every gamew…
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Another bench and his price will only go the other way

    • Muscout
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 1 day ago

      McCarthy
      Chillwell, Castagne, Lamptey
      Salah, Sterling, Son, Hamez, Soucek
      Kane, DCL

      Steer, Brewster, Mitchell, Branthwaite

      0.2 itb, make a transfer or save? Brewster to come in for Hamez

    • Dark Side Of The Loon!
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Ings to Kane for free. Makes sense?

      1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Also have Son.

      2. Good Times
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Yeah makes sense did the same. But he prepared for ings to score, it's just bound to happen

        1. teneighty
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          This comment matches the article well.

    • Good Times
      • 7 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Posting on the old article by mistake

      I'm sure people are asking this, Jimi isn't looking consistent and price ceiling was always low. Post decent fixtures which sub 7mil striker would you get
      A) wilson
      B) maupay
      C) Antonio
      Others

      Thanks

    • Maddamotha
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Worth holding onto Mitchell and Kilman on a wildcard?

      1. Denis Tueart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        yes = more cash elsewhere

      2. DantheManinaPan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        No way. Pick one

      3. Denis Tueart
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Excellent rotation for the next 7 weeks (as a fourth defender)

        1. Maddamotha
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Will they start tho? Both are at risk of losing their place?

    • MikeBravo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Currently have Pulisic and Jimenez. Money in bank.
      Should I take a hit and go:

      A. Pulisic and Aguero*, or
      B. Bruno* and Jimenez, or
      C. Stick?

      Any thoughts appreciated.

    • French Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 1 day ago

      My couch not big enough to hide without owning Kane:

      A) Werner > Kane
      B) Jimenez > Kane

      1. Good Times
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        I'd do B as Chelsea generally look better attacking than wolves. And you can downgrade werner when another striker hits form

      2. Tinkermania
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Not this week. Those 2 will potentially haul more than Kane.

      3. Indpush
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 1 day ago

        Would be worth relieving yourself of your fears alone.

        For free, B)

        1. French Gooner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Jimenez has such a great fixture as well. Seems like a case where bringing in Kane this week could cost me points as well.

          Don’t know why ppl are so keen on holding on to Werner ?

          1. Indpush
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            All back from being injured and had play time with the team. Could have gelled. Warner scored and could very well get hot?

    • gstegnar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 1 day ago

      Button - McCarthy
      Webster - Mitchell - TAA- Dier - KWP
      Son - Podeste - Salah - Bissouma - Havertz
      DCL - Wilson - Ings

      1FT, 3.5 mil left in the bank

      1) Bissouma/Podeste to Barkley

      next GW Ings to Kane. Thoughts?

      1. AlternativeB
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Wouldn't ship out Podence this round

      2. AlternativeB
          1 month, 1 day ago

          No transferes this round. G2G? (Castagne as first sub for JRod)

          Martinez (Forster)
          Robertson Lamptey Saiss (Castagne, Mitchell)
          Salah Grealish Son Rodriguez (Bissouma)
          Kane DCL Wilson

        • Inazuma X1
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 1 day ago

          Any Leeds fans? Does Stuijk create the same way as Kalvin?

          1. Jönny
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Not really. He will do a good job of the defensive side of things and is a good passer of the ball.. but Kalvin is irreplaceable.

          2. bench boost for every gamew…
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 1 day ago

            Far from it