942
Spot the Differential

Odegaard’s creativity can help provide FPL value in BGW29 and beyond

Blank Gameweek 29 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Arsenal, Fulham and Brighton and Hove Albion, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Martin Ødegaard

Can Martin Ødegaard live up to his potential and become a top FPL asset?
  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: whu | LIV | shu | FUL | EVE

Martin Ødegaard (£6.0m) has made a real impact at Arsenal since joining from Real Madrid on loan in January.

The Norwegian international has now started seven of the Gunners’ last nine matches in all competitions, predominantly as a number 10, and has repaid his manager’s faith with important goals against Olympiacos and Tottenham Hotspur.

His displays have seen him become the focal point of the side, which is reflected in his numbers.

Since making his first league start last month, Ødegaard ranks first amongst team-mates for successful passes in the final-third and joint-top for chances created, while his total of four shots over the last two matches highlights his increasing goal threat. His ability to make himself free on the edge of the box is a really nice part of his game, and having taken a few corners too, there is lots to like.

Sunday’s 2-1 victory over Spurs in the north London derby leaves Mikel Arteta’s side 10 points adrift of the top four. However, a win against West Ham United this weekend would allow them to close the gap, and they have momentum. In fact, since Boxing Day, they sit fourth in the Premier League form table, having collected 27 points from their last 14 matches.

In a relatively short space of time, Ødegaard has become an integral part of this Arsenal side, and could be a useful budget differential for the run-in.

Tosin Adarabioyo

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: LEE | avl | WOL | ars | –

Fulham defender Tosin Adarabioyo (£4.5m) has been a crucial part of Fulham’s defensive improvement this season.

Before his arrival in October, the Cottagers had shipped 11 goals in their opening four matches of the campaign. However, they have gradually improved since, and have now conceded just five in their last eight outings. 

During that time, the 23-year-olds partnership with Dane Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) has helped Scott Parker’s side register five clean sheets, and with Alphonse Areola (£4.6m) excelling in goal, bringing in a Fulham defender this week could be a shrewd move.

Their opponents in Gameweek 29, Leeds United, have failed to score in four of their last five matches, while Adarabioyo’s threat from set-pieces could be another route to points, too. The centre-back has produced 15 headed attempts from set-plays this term, a team-leading total, which is particularly relevant given that defending dead-ball situations has been an achilles heel throughout Marcelo Bielsa’s time at Elland Road. 

It’s another huge game for Fulham, who currently sit in the relegation zone but can move up to 17th with a win. Beyond that, there are winnable matches against Aston Villa, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Burnley, Southampton and Newcastle United before the end of the season, so there is potential to hold their assets long-term.

Adarabioyo has established himself as a key player for Fulham this season, and with an FPL ownership of just 0.9%, could be a useful differential.

Danny Welbeck

Welbeck ready to profit from Brighton's appealing run of fixtures
  • FPL ownership: 0.4%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: NEW | mun | EVE | che | shu

Following the inclusion of Joël Veltman (£4.4m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Danny Welbeck (£5.5m).

After several substitute appearances, the 30-year-old returned to Brighton and Hove Albion’s starting XI last weekend and was central to their win, providing the assist for Leandro Trossard’s (£5.8m) second-half strike.

The former Manchester United and Arsenal forward has now been directly involved in five goals this term, despite being limited to just 15 appearances and eight starts. That suggests he can make a notable impact when on the pitch, and with Newcastle United up next, he could be worth a look.

The Magpies have been poor on the road this season, and have won just three of their 14 Premier League away games. During that time, only Leeds United have a worse expected goals conceded (xGC) total, while they also rank in the bottom three for attempts in the box and shots on target conceded.

While Brighton have often flattered to deceive under Graham Potter, the return of Adam Lallana (£6.2m) can help them kick on. Against Southampton, he was pulling the strings in a slightly deeper role, and if he can stay fit for the remainder of the season, then Albion’s survival chances will receive a massive boost.

Welbeck has a big role to play too, and could be a nice under the radar option in Blank Gameweek 29.

Become a Member and get unrestricted access to our data and articles

Full-year memberships and monthly subscriptions are now available.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/818/history”

942 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Ronnies
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Is Burn likely to play ?
    Need to know if it's worth getting Veltman.
    Just 4.5m to spend on a defender

    Cheers.

    1. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Sounds like he will

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 7 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        Nice

  2. merin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Anything worth a hit?
    Thinking about using the FT on Cancelo -> Dallas

    Martinez Areola
    Dias Cancelo Digne Dunk Targett
    Bruno Bale Son Gundogan Raphinha
    Kane Bamford Watkins

    1 FT, 1.0 ITB

    1. Killitzer
      • 11 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      good choice!

      1. merin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        cheers, but would you take a hit to do another transfer? and if so, which one?

    2. DAZZ
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      WC available?

      1. merin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        nope

  3. marpy016
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Any changes to this FH team?

    Sanchez
    Dunk - Cresswell - Dallas
    Auba - Bale - Raphinha - Trossard - Lingard

    Lacazette - Kane

    Areola - Bamford - Tierney - Reguillion

    1. aapoman
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Pretty much my FH draft. I just have Lloris instead of Sanchez and Veltman instead of Creswell in my starting XI

    2. MOZIL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Laca might not start, i would play Reguillion ahead of cresswell

  4. Deulofail
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Listen to "Mourinho Out" comments on Twitter here https://youtu.be/V5v5ZR216F8?t=188
    😆

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 11 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      "Watching the game with my daughter & she just said "Life is too short for this". She is eight"

      This really encapsulates the frustration that often comes with watching a Mourinho team - I'll never forget watching that Brighton 1-0 game as long as I live - how a team can be so negative is bewildering

      1. Deulofail
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        I think that was my favourite quote too 😀

    2. Original - Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      He's got them to a cup final, if he wins that these same twitterers will be singing his praises.

  5. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 7 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Lava or Maja ? On fh

    1. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Lava, burn that team

    2. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      A rested Laca for me. I think Maja has one return ever right?

  6. Reeker
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Martinez
    Dallas - AWB** - Dias**
    Lingard - Raphinha - Son* - Salah**
    DCL** - Bamford - Kane
    (Areola) (Rudiger**, Gundogan**, Cancelo**)

    No WC - 2 FT

    Thinking Son + Cancelo to Auba + Dunk/Veltman

    Dunk better player. Veltman may allow better structure in future

    What do you think?

  7. Yasso84
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Which GW is Aston villa and Everton expected to play their missing match

    1. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      We don't know for sure but looks likely to be later GW 35 or 37

  8. FPL_BUCCANEER
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    No WC left..

    A) Free Hit

    B) Martinez
    Konsa Struijk Veltman Cresswell/Lingard
    Raphinha Son*
    Kane Bamford
    (-4)

    Thanks 🙂

    1. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      If you Can't wildcard out of B then Free Hit now if you can I'd save the free hit

  9. Jambot
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    FH team, GTG? Thanks 🙂

    Sanchez
    Dunk Dallas Cresswell
    Auba Bale JLings Trossard Raphina
    KaneC Bamford

    Dubravka Lacazette Lascelles Dawson

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      It's ok. Not sure about double on Leeds attack

      1. Jambot
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        I actually agree. Problem I'm struggling with is that I want Raph and I'm too scared of Bamfords 50% ownership

        1. Ajax Hamsterdam
          • 7 Years
          6 months, 3 days ago

          It's a very tough one yes. Gl 🙂

    2. DMP
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      I would considered Grealish now, if i was on FH. Help below, pls.

  10. DMP
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Any of this moves is worth an hit, or gtg?

    A) DCL -» Antonio
    B) Stones -» Dunk/Cresswell/Tierney
    C) Gundo -» Auba/Grealish

    Sanchez
    Dallas Coufal X
    Raphinha Bale Son* Lingard
    Kane Bamford* X
    McCarthy Dias Stones Gundongan DCL

    1. YuvalFPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      All look good. I'd go C.

  11. popey
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Trossard of Gross?

    Trossard - more attepts in open play
    Gross - corners (and pens?)

    Just for the Newcastle game

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Gross

    2. YuvalFPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Tross for me.

    3. Salan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Trossard

  12. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
    • 11 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    That draw sets up some incredible looking games in the Champions League tbf

    Liverpool Madrid should be great, then possible Liverpool v Chelsea & Bayern v City semi finals - nice

    1. mcsteely
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      I agree those four should go through their quarter finals, making the juiciest semis a reality

      1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
        • 11 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        If City do their traditional "choking in Europe" act under Pep it's hard to look past Bayern

        Bayern Chelsea final with Bayern winning probs

    2. diesel001
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Liverpool vs Chelsea SF would be good.

      Luis Garcia in the studio?

    3. Original - Wolves Ay We
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      People are under-estimating Porto

      1. Silecro
        • 3 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        Not underestimating as such, but as a Chelsea fan, literally any other remaining opponents are harder on paper than Porto

  13. mcsteely
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Is Barnes & Cancelo -->Lingard & Tierney for free a good move?

    1. YuvalFPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      lingard and tierney are playing eachother. capping your points.

      1. mcsteely
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        For this week yes. looking at upcoming fixtures I think they might do well..

    2. Hart-ake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      For a long-term move? I like it a lot, planning to get in Tierney myself this week.

      1. mcsteely
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        Yeah for long term. Glad to hear you are thinking the same

  14. YuvalFPL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    On a FH.

    Very very tempted by Jack Grealish - anyone with me?

    1. DMP
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Me. You can cover him from the bench if he doenst play. Help above pls.

    2. mcsteely
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      might as well. Is he fit?

      1. YuvalFPL
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        Dean Smith's comments from today are confusing - says he's been training but not with the squad. I think he's playing mind games and he'll start.

        1. mcsteely
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          6 months, 3 days ago

          Go for it then if you've got bench cover

    3. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      No

    4. popey
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      I think he will start if if hes fit enough for full running etc - no need to integrate him in squad much as he's so much better than everyone else we have 🙂

      on a FH defo worth a risk IMO

      1. CBonci
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        Him playing would make me want Watkins. Still between bringing in him or Bamford.

    5. BERGKOP
      • 10 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      No

  15. DAZZ
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Stones > Cresswell worth a -4? Frees up a City spot. Have Dias Gundo Antonio. Would give me 10 playing

    1. linkafu
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Not for me, Creswell could finish at 1 point easily

  16. merin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Anything worth a hit now?

    Martinez Areola
    Dias Digne Dallas Dunk Targett
    Bruno Bale Son Gundogan Raphinha
    Kane Bamford Watkins

    0 FT, 1.8 ITB, No WC or FH available

    1. linkafu
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Son to Lingard maybe

      1. HonestBlatter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        Son has to play...otherwise Spurs out of €uro games next year

        1. linkafu
          • 2 Years
          6 months, 3 days ago

          But can Mou take the risk to loose him for longer?

          1. Planet Jo
            • 9 Years
            6 months, 3 days ago

            There are only 9-10 games left. 'Longer' is next season.

    2. BooYaKasha
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Switch Targett to Dawson for an all D defense

  17. linkafu
    • 2 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Choose a pair:
    A Antonio Bale
    B Maupay Bale

    Maupay become Werner gw30 if I do B

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Antonio over Maupay surely

      1. linkafu
        • 2 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        Even playing Asenal and Maupay playing Newcastle?

    2. MOZIL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      B

    3. Dirty Harry
      • 6 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Not Maupay

  18. Pukki Party
    • 4 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Best mid for 6.3 for 29&30?

    A) Lingard (ARS, wol)
    B) Teossard (NEW, mun)

    1. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      A

    2. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Lingard

    3. Pukki Party
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Thanks guys

    4. Hart-ake
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      J-Lingz

  19. Disturbed
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Who would you lose this gw for lingard? Plan to WC in gw31.

    A. Salah
    B. Gundo
    C. Son

    1. linkafu
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      A for me. Not a lot of value lost. Son could play and if not he’s facing Newcastle gw30 when Salah face Arsenal away. Gundo is still in the box even with KDB back and has much value in him.

      1. Keeptrying
        • 7 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        This

    2. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      A or B

  20. OLLY G
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Is Son to Raphinha worth a hit?

    1. mcsteely
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      No. I'd hold Son as good fixture after the Int break

  21. Please Answer Me
    • 7 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Raphinha captainers bear in mind Leeds have scored 0 goals the last 4 games

    1. Silecro
      • 3 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      And that's why I'm going Dallas for c

      1. Please Answer Me
        • 7 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        so you're hoping on a clean sheet?

    2. HMC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      and their poor record vs london teams, winless since 2017

  22. Tronity
    • 8 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Chances of Dier starting are pretty slim, right?

    1. HonestBlatter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Thinking the same...has to keep him if 10% odds to start

  23. Pukki Party
    • 4 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Latest on Bamford? Any chance he starts?

    1. #Swish41
      • 11 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Looking more likely than not

      1. Pukki Party
        • 4 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        Thanks

  24. Gazza2000
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Play the FH chip or go with the lot below for -4?

    Areola
    Burn
    Raphinha Auba Son*
    Kane Antonio Bamford

    1. Pukki Party
      • 4 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Gtg

    2. #Swish41
      • 11 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Tricky as you only have 7 for -4....upside is probably bigger if you use FH in a DGW, especially if you don’t have a WC left

      1. Gazza2000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        Tough choice isn't it, really on the fence here...

  25. The White Pele
    • 4 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Grealish likely to start?

    1. #Swish41
      • 11 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Doubt it, but who knows with Smith!

  26. Dark Side Of The Loon!
    • 5 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    I guess I am the only one going with Dubravka as my FH keeper!

    1. #Swish41
      • 11 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Yup!

    2. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Yeah

    3. Deulofail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      I would do it if there were 3 Brighton defenders I wanted

    4. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      He's my 2nd keeper if that helps.

  27. #Swish41
    • 11 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    What do we think squad:

    Martinez
    Coufal Ayling Veltman (Dias, Keane)
    Son Bale Raphina GUNDO (Bruno)
    Kane Bamford Watkins

    Sat at 43k rank, WC and BB left, £3.4m itb, used FT.

    Is Gundo > Lingard worth a hit for 10 (plus Son)?

    1. Gazza2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      No worth the hit imo, team looks good

      1. #Swish41
        • 11 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        Cheers pal, leaning towards your suggestion

  28. g40steve
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    GTG, took a -4.

    Differential C Lingard?

    Correct keeper this week?

    Sanchez,
    Dallas, Aina, Cresswell
    #Son, Bale, Lingz, Raphinha
    Kane, Watkins, Bamford,

    Martinez, Dias, Shaw, Bruno,

    1. Holmes
      • 7 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      make sure to start bench players for Leeds

      1. g40steve
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        Bench games so when game updates auto sub back in?

        1. Holmes
          • 7 Years
          6 months, 3 days ago

          yep

  29. Lignja
    • 4 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Martinez
    Strujik, Konsa (Cancelo, Stones, Mithcell)
    Saka, Son ( Salah, Bruno, Gundogan)
    Kane, Antonio (Dcl)

    Dcl, Mithcell to Bamford, Veltman for free? Or risky with Bamford flag

  30. Von Lipwig
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    6 months, 3 days ago

    Can anyone convince me that Lingard is a bad captain pick (over Kane)?

    1. Toblerone52 - Hung like a H…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      I once captained lingard when he was in rich run of form for united, alternative that week was Harry Kane.

      Kane scored a brace and lingard did nothing and then I sold him for Choupo Moting.

      1. Von Lipwig
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        6 months, 3 days ago

        ... thanks...

    2. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      6 months, 3 days ago

      Slowly moving off it

      Arsenal defence is both cack and solid. They'll concede a goal from a mistake but likely just the one. Villa have been fairly wretched in the last 3.

      Lost to SHU !!!!
      Drew with Wolves who had one of the misses of the season
      Were outplayed by Newcastle in 1-1 draw. Newcastle created more.

      Not happy with Kane but think he has more prospect than Lingard for a double return.