Spot the Differential

Alonso offers great potential as one-week punt for Gameweek 31 Wildcarders

Tom Freeman has finished inside the top 1k in five of the last 11 Fantasy Premier League seasons. He picks out three differentials for Fantasy Football Scout readers every Gameweek.


Gameweek 30 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Chelsea, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Southampton, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Marcos Alonso

Tuchel's wing-back system renews interest in old hands Azpilicueta and Alonso
  • FPL ownership: 2.6%
  • Price: £5.7m
  • GW30-34 fixtures: WBA | cry | BHA | whu | FUL

Spanish defender Marcos Alonso (£5.7m) has been given a new lease of life at Chelsea under Thomas Tuchel.

The 30-year-old was banished from Frank Lampard’s squad after a disastrous 45 minutes at West Bromwich Albion back in September, but has since started five league matches under his new manager, and taken full advantage of the opportunity.

When it comes to playing in a back four, Alonso often struggles, but when used correctly as a wing-back he has real quality, something Tuchel has recognised. 

Since Gameweek 21, when Alonso made a return to Chelsea’s starting XI in a 3-4-3 system, he has taken 13 shots. No defender can match that total during that period, despite limited minutes. He has also accumulated 25 penalty area touches (only Luke Shaw (£5.2m) has more) and created 10 chances for his team-mates.

At this stage, we should point out that a move for the defender this week does carry some risk, knowing that Ben Chilwell (£5.8m) is also pushing for a start. However, the fact Alonso was rested during the international break, while his English colleague played 180 minutes against San Marino and Poland, is encouraging. 

Alonso has delivered a string of impressive displays of late, and could be a perfect one-week punt for FPL managers planning a Gameweek 31 Wildcard.

Conor Coady

  • FPL ownership: 4.7%
  • Price: £4.8m
  • GW30-34 fixtures: WHU | ful | SHU | BUR | wba

With two clean sheets and a goal in his last five appearances, plus an appealing set of forthcoming fixtures, Conor Coady (£4.8m) could be a solid under the radar pick for the run-in.

Last season, investing in one of Wolves’ backline was one of the easier decisions FPL managers had to make, given that their record of 13 clean sheets was bettered by only three teams. 

And though they have struggled to replicate that defensive form this term, some of which can be attributed to the 4-2-3-1 / 4-3-3 experiment, their performances at the back have improved of late.

The England international’s goal threat is on the up too. Having not had a shot in the Premier League before this season, Coady scored his first top-flight goal against Man City in Gameweek 26, and came close to netting twice at Villa Park the following week, hitting the post with a header before forcing a superb save from Emiliano Martínez (£5.4m).

However, the real appeal lies in Wolves’ clean sheet potential, and with home games against West Ham United, Sheffield United and Burnley in the next five, plus away trips to Fulham and West Brom, further shut outs could be on the way.

Priced at just £4.8m, Coady offers the cheapest route into Wolves’ defence and is the most likely to start every match too. He could be a nice set-and-forget option given his schedule.

Stuart Armstrong

  • FPL ownership: 0.4%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW30-34 fixtures: BUR | wba | tot | – | LEI

Despite a stop-start season at Southampton, largely due to niggling injuries and a positive COVID-19 test, Stuart Armstrong (£5.5m) has been one of the club’s top performers in recent matches, with two assists in his last three Premier League outings.

The Scottish international was excellent against Bournemouth in the FA Cup, causing all sorts of problems for the Cherries defenders with his direct running. He ended the game with an assist but was unfortunate not to return more, as his pass found Che Adams (£5.8m) to score in the second half, only for VAR to rule it out, before his strike came back off the post for Nathan Redmond (£6.4m) to score Saints’ third.

Though Armstrong was used in a deeper midfield role at Everton in Gameweek 26, the Scot usually features in a more advanced position, where he can drift infield in Ralph Hasenhüttl’s 4-4-2 / 4-2-2-2 setup, allowing Kyle Walker-Peters (£4.7m) to provide the width on the right. That’s important with Burnley up next, given that only Fulham and Crystal Palace have conceded more chances down that side since the turn of the year.

Southampton may sit seven points above the drop zone, but with just one win in their last 12 Premier League matches, will be looking nervously over their shoulder. They now have a massive double-header against Burnley and West Bromwich Albion, and will need to get points on the board in these games, knowing that they have a tough run to follow.

At his best, Armstrong is a real asset to Southampton, and could be a nice budget pick for these crucial back-to-back games.

Become a Member and get unrestricted access to our data and articles

Full-year memberships are now available for the price of £25.00. Monthly subscriptions also cost just £3.99. A FREE trial is now available.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 150+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • Enjoy our brand NEW Flat-Track Bully feature which introduces an opposition filter to your tables.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

ALREADY A USER? CLICK HERE TO UPGRADE YOUR FREE ACCOUNT

NEW TO SCOUT? CLICK HERE TO START A MEMBERSHIP ACCOUNT

avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/894/history”

693 Comments Post a Comment
  1. lewis274
      2 months, 13 days ago

      start lingard or sterling??

      1. aleksios
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Sterl.
        Otherwise sell.

    • bitm2007
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      If you're planning to FH in GW33 is Kane, Son, and Bale overkill for DGW32 and GW34 (SHU) ? Three Spurs seem logical, but Lloris would cost me 2FTs for one DGW (I have Martinez for GW34), and none of the Spurs D are nailed.

      1. aleksios
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Yes its overkill.

      2. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Prefer Moura over Bale

      3. pingissimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Huge amount rides on Southampton defence there imo

        They have been the pits this calendar year but in theory they are a capable defence. What sets them apart is the massive underperforming of XGC. If that continues then the triple up looks solid if you have FH33. If they revert to normal XGC it's a closer call.

    • DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Watkins to Bamford for free?

      1. aleksios
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Yes.

      2. A-L
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Yep

    • Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Rudiger, Alonso or Azpi?
      Rudiger makes Gundo to Son possible but other two more exxiting.Can just get Son gw32 by downgrading someone like Dias.
      What do you think? Will probably save WC until gw33 or 34

      1. aleksios
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Alonso or Azpi for me.

      2. The VAR Team
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Azpi in your case

        1. Andy_Social
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          Alonso for one week giggles; Azpi for longer term security.

    • The VAR Team
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Both my defence and midfield is weak. Can I justify bringing in Alonso and playing Auba and Gundo hoping for the best?

      Martinez
      Dallas Stones* Cancelo*
      Son Raph Auba* Gundo*
      Kane Bam Antonio
      (Pope - Lookman Lowton Dunk)

      1. aleksios
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Auba to Bruno.

        1. The VAR Team
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 13 days ago

          Cheers. Gundo to Kevin is also an option, I'd rather go for that

    • afsr
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Watkins -> Bamford (-4) yay or nay?
      Bamford will then start instead of Antonio (i also have Lingard in start)

      1. afsr
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        no WC left, have Raphinia as well

      2. aleksios
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        I wouldnt for a hit.Antonio can score.

      3. The VAR Team
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 13 days ago

        nah 🙂

      4. afsr
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Ok, then, which single transfer is better?

        A - Mount -> Son
        B - Mount -> Moura
        C - Watkins -> Bamford
        D - Watkins -> DCL

        1. Eastman
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          C
          I'd keep Mount

    • aleksios
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      A) Bale to Bruno and captain.
      B) Dunk to Alonso.
      C) Both for a hit.

      Thanks.

      1. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Is Dunk in starting XI or on bench? if starting XI, C.

        1. aleksios
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          Not starting.

      2. The VAR Team
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 13 days ago

        B for me as I think Brighton will turn up against United

        1. Holmes
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          😀

    • Maddamotha
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Which 3 would you play this gw? Double Leeds too risky?

      A) Dallas
      B) Strujik
      C) Cancelo
      D) Targett
      E) Coufal

      1. The VAR Team
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 13 days ago

        ABC, D first bench

    • Andy_Social
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Got a bit of a benching dilemma. Got 3 Hammers; they're away to Wolves who neither score nor concede. I want to start 2 of Cresswell, Lingard and Antonio. Who to bench?

      1. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Cresswell and Antonio/Lingard is probably safe bet.

        Out of Antonio and Lingard, I would probably go for Antonio and hope for best. (50-50 decision)

        1. Andy_Social
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          Yeah, normally you'd play 3 at the back and bench the defender, but it's v Wolves and Aaron's the leading FPL defender. So you reckon on parking Lingard?

          1. Holmes
            • 7 Years
            2 months, 13 days ago

            Yeah, as of now I would say bench Lingard 😀

      2. pingissimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Bench Antonio imo

        Boly back for Wolves makes them a tougher nut historically. Lingard is too hot to drop. The Cresswell cs to me is the most likely return and he always has the assist in him too.

        1. Cometh The Aouar...
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          Well said Ping.

        2. Andy_Social
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          Assist Jesse or Ant? Hmm. You'll love my other options - also on my bench are Gundog (expected to be rested after 3 full games including Macedonian humiliation) and TAA (due to long run from next GW). Wish I still had my BB.

          1. pingissimus
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 13 days ago

            I had a bench decision of 3 of Bale, Antonio Stones Watkins Konsa plus Ederson

            Did the logical thing and sold both Bale and Antonio 🙂 . Rather neatly that means I've now sold the 3 players who I've recently brought in for hits

            Still puzzled why my OR is where it is 😉

            1. Eastman
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 13 days ago

              I'd play Lingard. Form player

    • artvandelay316
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Pope (Forster)
      Stones, Dallas, Cresswell (Holding, Mitchell)
      Bruno (C), Salah, Gundo, Lingard (Mount)
      Kane (VC), DCL, Bamford

      0.5 M in bank

      Do I:
      A) Roll transfer
      B) Holding > Rudiger (play instead of Cresswell)
      C) Mount > Raph (and play instead of Lingard) + Holding > Azpi for -4
      D) Other (please specify)

    • Pukki Party
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      On WC?

      A) Watkins Raphina
      B) Grealish Bamford

      1. A-L
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Watkins is so frustrating to own. Don't do it to yourself

    • Don Kloppeone
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      It boils down to this for me. Who scores more?:

      A) Alonso or Azpi (Bale first on bench) - lose Dunk
      B) Bruno (Gundo first on bench) - lose Bale

      1FT 6.6itb Only WC remaining (prob play in 31)
      Martinez
      Dallas, Shaw, Dias
      Son, Bale*, Raphinha, Lingard
      Kane, DCL, Bamford
      (Pope) (Gundo, Coufal, Dunk*)

      Cheers and GL all!

      1. Amey
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Really ??
        😀

        1. Don Kloppeone
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          Yeh really!

          When was the last time Bruno set things alight?

          1. Amey
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 13 days ago

            Err
            Away to City ?
            10 points ... 🙂

            1. Don Kloppeone
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 13 days ago

              You see it as clear cut as that that he outscores Alonso this week?

              Could be right ... just unsure

              1. Amey
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 13 days ago

                I do bro 🙂
                GL ....

                1. Don Kloppeone
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 3 Years
                  2 months, 13 days ago

                  I guess there’s the EO factor also... GL too bro

      2. Karan14
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Alonso is an explosive differential but not owning Bruno this week could hurt.
        It depends on how willing you are to take a risk.

    • Lignja
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      what would you rather BB

      a. Veltman, Mendy + (Strujik, Saka)
      b. Cancelo, Foster + (Strujik, Saka)

    • Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Hmm Alonso has played 1 of last 4, why should he now?

      1. Andy_Social
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Because although he can't defend, it isn't necessary v Baggies.

      2. Amey
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Because we are on WC next GW 😉

        1. pingissimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          So you're losing him for Palace? Bit tame of you that

          1. Amey
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 13 days ago

            I'm not even getting this GW 😀
            Using FT on DCL.
            Eagles are susceptible to headed chances IMO

      3. Pep bites Kun
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        6 out of the last 10 - Captain material right there. The more important question when you're gambling is; who do you vice?

        FFS should also survey who people vc. It would give a clearer indication of gamble v intent

    • Pep bites Kun
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Anyone got the bookie odds of Alonso:

      . Playing
      . Che clean sheet potential
      . Scoring

      ?

    • Father Christmas 2021
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Wildcarding with free hit up my sleeve for a week in the future. Thoughts??

      FORSTER/MENDY
      AZPI/TIERNEY/SHAW/COADY/DALLAS
      SALAH/LINGARD/BRUNO/JOTA/RAPHINHA
      DCL/IHANEACHO/KANE

      1. Amey
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Can't read ....

        1. Little Red Lacazette
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          Same. Poor formatting.

      2. Qaiss
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Who is your captain in Gw31?

      3. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Undo caps lock

    • Nanoelektronicar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      All they ask is "Kane this, Kane that, stays, leaves" No questions about Son or Bale.

      1. Amey
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Losers
        They don't know how important is FPL

      2. Nanoelektronicar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Sorry, sorry, just seen this:

        Mourinho says Son will be selected on Sunday
        "He was injured. Trained with the team fully this morning. He did partial exercises with the team yesterday and last week didn't train at all. This time we have Doherty and Ben Davies out. [Reguilon] is ready."

        https://www.football.london/tottenham-hotspur-fc/fixtures-results/tottenham-press-conference-live-jose-20309848

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Great

    • Cometh The Aouar...
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Alonso? Not buying it.

      1. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Could work but I don't get the hype

    • ZoumasBloomers
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Got Shaw, Dallas and Reguilon

      Worth losing one for Alonso as a one week punt? Could play 4atb if I bench Gundo or Son doesn’t play at all

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Yeah, Reg

        1. ZoumasBloomers
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          That’s the current thought from me too, cheers

          1. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 13 days ago

            Any advice below fella? Cheers

    • Pep Roulette
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Hey fam!

      I think Alonso might start West Brom, get benched in UCL and then start Palace again! Tuchel will play Chilwell where he needs his LWB to defend that is against Porto. Whereas, he needs physical presence against teams like West Brom & Palace where the LWB is not required to defend that much.

      I don't have WC remaining, but still planning to punt on Alonso for the upcoming gameweeks. With a good and safe bench I can take the risk of his rotation! Thoughts?

      1. ZoumasBloomers
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        He played Alonso away at Atletico though

      2. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        No idea. I’m tempted to punt on him

      3. Karan14
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Have you seen Porto play or are they really attacking?

        Read few comments saying that Porto also sit back like Atletico (Alonso started against them).

        1. Would Ed Woodward
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          Porto will probably sit back and try to counter.

    • RAFA THE GAFFA
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      option? Considering WC31.

      A. McCarthy+Dunk >> Mendy+Alonso (-4) and BB?

      B. Dunk >> Alonso (bench Dias, save BB)

      C. Save FT (save BB)

      Martinez
      Digne, Dias, Dallas
      Bruno, Son*, Lingard, Raphina
      Kane, DCL, Bamford
      (McCarthy, Soucek, Coufal, Dunk)

      1. Biggsy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Probably A because you will be in a better position with your WC in 31 not having to have three solid bench players for an upcoming BB

      2. waltzingmatildas
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        A

      3. Karan14
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Like both options. Depends if you want have a heavy bench on wildcard.

    • ceerus
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      A) Son(-4)
      B) Jota

      1. Biggsy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        A could pay off with DGW. I'd prefer to see how pool line up with Firmino back before taking the punt on Jota

    • Biggsy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Son news good enough for me. Soucek & Aina to Son & Azpi locked and loaded.

      Last dilemma. Play Meslier or Martinez?

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Hmm probably Meslier

    • waltzingmatildas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      A) Dunk to Alonso (bench Cancelo)
      B) Lingard to Bruno (bench Gundo)
      C) Antonio to DCL (bench Lingard)

      1. Karan14
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        A if you plan to wildcard soon.
        B if its a long term move.

        1. waltzingmatildas
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          Yeah should have said, WC 31. Thanks!

      2. Biggsy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        A

      3. Amey
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        B)runo

    • Qaiss
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      You just know Diagne is going to score a header in the first 5 minutes tomorrow

      1. Holmes
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Project Alonso ends here...

    • Stimps
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      A) Bale to Son
      B) Grealish to Son (Have Watkins)

      Planning on WC 31

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        A

      2. Karan14
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        A

    • Totti
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 13 days ago

      Salah -> bruno for free

      A) yay
      B) nay

      1. waltzingmatildas
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        B

    • Zlatan F.C
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Is the safe bet here to do Veltman to Azpi for FT?

        Martinez
        Dallas Dias Cancelo
        Bale Lingard Bruno Raph
        Bamford Antonio Kane

        Pope Coufal Lookman Veltman

        1. The VAR Team
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 13 days ago

          If no WC I’d do Bale to Son

      • ZoumasBloomers
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 13 days ago

        Are people keeping Martinez on their WC? I could switch to Mendy now and then play Shaw Dallas and Reguilon

        1. The 12th Man
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 13 days ago

          Adding Leno to Martinez.