Line-up Lessons

Which Arsenal players are most likely to avoid rotation during season run-in?

Ahead of an expected rush of Wildcards in Gameweek 31, Anna Woodberry analyses which players stand the best chance of beating Mikel Arteta’s rotation policy at Arsenal.


Arsenal sit second of our Season Ticker over the next five Gameweeks when clubs are sorted by ease of fixture. Mikel Arteta’s side face the four bottom Premier League clubs over this period, with a tough home match against Everton sandwiched in the middle.

For Fantasy Premier League managers on their Wildcard, or those looking to maximise their transfer(s) this Gameweek, these fixtures could yield good returns.

That said, Arsenal’s form this season and their quarter-final matches against Slavia Prague must be considered when choosing which assets to go for. 

We have weighed up their credentials in this latest article by considering recent performances as well as investigating which players are the most likely to play consistent minutes in the Premier League between now and Gameweek 38.

Arsenal have not impressed as many would have expected during Arteta’s reign. The Gunners had a particularly poor start to the league and found themselves languishing in fifteenth place after eleven Premier League matches. However, Arteta has managed to pull them back up during the second half of the season, where they are now flittering between ninth and eleventh position.

Source: Wikipedia

This is in spite of a tough run of fixtures in their last ten games, which saw them play both Manchester clubs, Leicester City, Tottenham, West Ham and Liverpool. They picked up 12 points from a possible 30 from these matches: winning three, drawing three and losing four. 

Yet they only managed one clean sheet during this period (and have zero in their last six) while conceding 15 goals in total, six of which came in their last two matches against West Ham and Liverpool. 

On the flip side, though they only netted 14 goals during the same period, the team scored two or more goals in four of the ten games and are in the top five for goals scored over the past six matches. Given that their upcoming fixtures are against bottom-half clubs with poorer defensive records, this is something FPL managers will be hoping Arsenal could replicate over the next few Gameweeks.

EUROPEAN DISTRACTION

Who has the best and worst upcoming FPL fixtures? 14

The biggest headache for FPL managers, however, will be factoring in Arsenal’s Europa League campaign. Their quarter-final first leg against Slavia Prague takes place on Thursday evening, three days before their Gameweek 31 match against Sheffield United. Meanwhile, the second leg is scheduled for the following week, in between Gameweek 31 and Gameweek 32 (Fulham). 

If they get through this quarter-final, the semi-final fixtures are pencilled to take place in and around their Gameweek 34 and 35 matches against Newcastle United and West Bromwich Albion, meaning the Gunners are facing the prospect of nine games in 30 days. So, while Arsenal are playing the four bottom Premier League teams, this is happening in amongst their European campaign, raising concerns over how much Arteta might rotate his squad to cope with this demand.

This concern is increased when considering which competition the Spaniard might favour going into the final part of the season as the Europa League arguably represents the best chance for the club to make it into the Champions League next season.

The Gunners are ten points off fourth place with eight Premier League matches to go but are battling a host of rivals to get there. Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea are all above Arteta’s team, so the odds are stacked against them to win a European qualifying spot through domestic channels.

This could have ramifications for Arteta’s team selection in the Premier League over the next few Gameweeks. He utilised fringe players in the group stages of the Europa League, keeping his main stars – Kieran Tierney (£5.3m), Alexandre Lacazette (£8.2m) and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.4m) – for the league. This may change now we are reaching the latter stages of the competition, especially if this is Arsenal’s best chance of playing in Europe next year. 

TIME FOR THE ‘BIG GUNS’

If we compare the Arsenal players’ minutes for the group-stage and knock-out matches of the Europa League this season, we can already see a shift towards the more experienced group. 14 players – Bernd Leno (£5.0m), Tierney, Hector Bellerin (£5.0m), Gabriel (£4.9m), David Luiz (£5.4m), Thomas Partey (£4.9m), Martin Odegaard (£6.0m), Dani Ceballos (£4.7m), Granit Xhaka (£5.2m), Emile Smith Rowe (£4.2m), Bukayo Saka (£5.2m), Aubameyang, Gabriel Martinelli (£4.9m) and Willian (£7.5m) – have all featured more in the knock-out stages than they did during the group matches.

This is also reflected when looking at the starting line-ups. Leno, Bellerin, David Luiz, Gabriel, Xhaka and Aubameyang have started all four knock-out games so far, with Tierney, Ceballos, Saka, Odegaard and Smith Rowe starting three. Therefore, we would expect Arteta to turn to these players again for the two legs against Slavia Prague. 

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PREMIER LEAGUE

The issue this poses for FPL managers is whether these players will feature in the Premier League games either side of those quarter-final matches. Though hard to predict, we can see which players started a high number of league games in and around the Round of 32 and Round of 16 matches against Benfica and Olympiacos in February and March. 

Leno, David Luiz, Tierney, Xhaka, Saka, Odegaard and Aubameyang were the only players to start four or more games in the league, suggesting they would be the best bets to play against Sheffield United and Fulham. In contrast, stalwarts Bellerin and Gabriel only started two games each, so might see their league minutes similarly restricted if they play on Thursday.

However, injuries could change this completely. David Luiz looks set to miss the next couple weeks after undergoing knee surgery, leaving Gabriel (£4.9m) to shoulder the principal centre-back burden. In his absence, Arteta could turn to either Rob Holding (£4.2m) and/or Pablo Marí (£4.4m) to partner Gabriel in the Europa League and Premier League games. Both are budget-value defenders who could easily fill the fourth or fifth spots in any FPL team.

In addition, Arsenal fear that Tierney could be ruled out for a similar period to Luiz after limping off in the first half against Liverpool in Gameweek 30. If true, this leaves Cedric Soares (£4.6m) and Saka as the Gunners’ left-back options since Sead Kolasinac went on loan to Schalke in January. With this uncertainty, it means Leno is probably the most reliable way into Arsenal’s defence.   

In terms of midfield and attack though, Odegaard and Aubameyang are the safest picks, but whether they represent the best value for money compared to other players in those price brackets remains to be seen. They could be good differential picks if they start though.

For FPL managers feeling a bit risky, Nicolas Pépé (£7.6m) and Eddie Nketiah (£5.4m) were frequently used in the group stages of the Europa League to give the more established players rest. Arteta could utilise the two again but in the league this time, especially if the tie against Slavia Prague is still close after the first leg.

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941 Comments Post a Comment
  1. TeddiPonza
    • 10 Years
    29 days, 2 hours ago

    Play one this week:

    Shaw (tot)
    Watkins (liv)
    Raphinha (mci)
    Coufal (LEI)

    Thanks

    1. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      29 days, 2 hours ago

      Watkins.

      1. Big_Andy_GAWA
        • 9 Years
        29 days, 1 hour ago

        I'd go with the same myself, yeah.

      2. im1974
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        29 days, 12 mins ago

        What is your rank? You offer a lot of “advice” that probably should be ignored

        1. Big_Andy_GAWA
          • 9 Years
          28 days, 23 hours ago

          Who are you talking to?!

          1. Lord.
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            27 days, 15 hours ago

            I think he’s talking about Camry, who has linked his team, and has an excellent track record (including four top 10k finishes, and one in the top 100), to add credibility to the advice regularly shared on this forum.

    2. FPL_DON
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      shaw

  2. DBossman_2000
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    29 days, 2 hours ago

    Seeing a lot people going for Leicester players this gw but is no one worried about their cup semi before their game in gw32? What if it goes to ET and then he rotates in that fixture for example?

    1. DBossman_2000
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      Or even worse, if there’s an injury in that game itself, it comes after the deadline so wouldn’t be able to do anything about it either

  3. dshv
    • 3 Years
    29 days, 2 hours ago

    WC, wainting for advices

    Mendy (button)
    taa diaz coady (rudiger mitchell)
    Son bruno salah jota neto
    Kane iheanacho (davis)

    - thinking about dias or shaw .. shaw is not potential cs against spurs ..
    - advices please

    * no other chips
    * 0.4 itb

  4. fusen
    • 9 Years
    29 days, 1 hour ago

    I sort of want to try Lacazette on my WC, especially against Sheffield but the potential lack of minutes is a real worry

    1. Kane Lane
      • 6 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      I have him I never knew he has lack mins

  5. Cheeto__Bandito
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      Bench One

      A) Watkins vs liv
      B) Raphinha vs City

      1. TeddiPonza
        • 10 Years
        29 days, 1 hour ago

        Raph I think

    • bigdip
      • 8 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      So WC Team 1 or Team 2?

      1. Mendy Forster
      TAA, Rudiger, Coady, Stones, Shaw
      Fernandes, Gundo, Son, Jota, Neto
      Kane, Ihenacho, DCL

      OR

      2. Mendy Forster
      PHILLIPS, Rudiger, Coady, KONSA, Shaw
      Fernandes, Gundo, Son, Jota, SALAH
      Kane, Ihenacho, WEL BECK/SILVA

      1. Big_Andy_GAWA
        • 9 Years
        29 days, 1 hour ago

        Is Rudiger the better pick over Christensen?

      2. FPL_DON
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        29 days, 1 hour ago

        would love Gundo, maybe JLingz?

        1. FPL_DON
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          29 days, 1 hour ago

          lose***

    • ryacoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      Thoughts on Sterling captain this week on WC?

      Planning to sell him on to Son next week

      1. Ruth_NZ
        • 6 Years
        29 days, 1 hour ago

        Dumbass move but the general idea is OK.

        1. ryacoo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          29 days, 1 hour ago

          Lol what

          1. Ruth_NZ
            • 6 Years
            28 days, 12 hours ago

            The general idea of dealing with GW31 captaincy in that way is OK but Sterling(c) would require a number of dominos to fall just right. Sure, he'll probably start and if so that would be hurdle #1 jumped but he'd still have to deliver something worthwhile, which is hurdle #2.

            The guy below expecting 4 City goals is in fantasy land. City, with a much-changed team, will want to control that game above all and will be entirely happy with a safe 1-0 if they can get it. In addition, Sterling hasn't exactly been tearing it up even when he has played, his poor form is what got him onto Pep's naughty step in the first place.

            For the manoeuvre to work, Sterling has to bounce back with a bang exactly when you want him to. There's nothing to suggest he will and that's why I see it as a dumbass move. 🙂

      2. Iceball
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        29 days, 1 hour ago

        Sounds good if on WC, Sterling has high upside, probably 4 ManCity goals in that game and he is likely to start. Sterling or Salah best option this week. I have neither and wondering if I should WC or not, see below, what would you do in my shoes?

    • Big_Andy_GAWA
      • 9 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      Hi Folks,

      Rudiger or Christensen: who is the best pick? Who is more likely to start in Premier League games?

      Cheers.

      1. CROYDON DE BRUYNE
        • 4 Years
        29 days, 1 hour ago

        Gone for Christensen as both were benched vs WBA but Christensen came on after Thiago Silva was sent off

    • S.Kuqi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      Thoughts about this move?

      Kdb -> Jota
      Bamford -> Aguero (c)

      In gw32 Aguero -> Vardy

    • Mr. O'Connell
      • 8 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      Don't like the idea of booking in transfers, but I really don't fancy going into Spurs v United with Kane, Bruno and Son (yes I'm aware they all hauled in the reverse fixture).

      Spurs dgw in 32 making the wildcard feeling a bit like a poisoned chalice this week.

    • Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      Mendy Meslier
      Dias Alonso Digne Coufal Veltman
      Bruno Gundo Jota Raphinha Lingard
      Kane DCL Bamford
      Stobbornness not to WC? Im somehow thinking about the possible DGW35 and use WC then to load up if 6-8 teams have DGW. Outside of too many Leeds I dont think its too bad. No Salah or Leicester is a worry. I will get Son next week for Gundo.
      So, WC or not to WC??

      1. FPL_DON
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        29 days, 1 hour ago

        similar team to you and I hit the button, just felt like it had the most value now in terms of getting in future template players early.

      2. ryacoo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        29 days, 1 hour ago

        That teams looks in fairly decent shape still tbf - I'd probably only make 4-5 changes on WC so might be worth holding until the GW35/36 schedule is confirmed

    • JJeyy
      • 5 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      Wow look at city home defensive record recently. Can see Leeds getting at least 2

      1. DA Minnion (In Bielsa we tr…
        • 8 Years
        29 days, 1 hour ago

        At least.

        1. JJeyy
          • 5 Years
          29 days, 1 hour ago

          Raphinha to score big

    • FPL_DON
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      Thoughts on keeping Bamford on WC? No other options really excite me other than my other two - Kane and Ineacho and Leeds can score against anyone.

    • FPLMACKEM
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      Current WC draft.

      Ederson, Forster
      Coady, Holding, Rudiger, Phillips, 4.9?
      Salah, Jota, Bruno, Neto, Son
      Bamford, Kane, Iheanacho

      What are peoples thoughts on this?

      I have gone a bit cheap in defence but I would feel very uncomfortable going without Kane, Salah, Bruno and Son.

    • House Frey Wedding Planner
      • 2 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      What's the best play here?

      A - Salah & Struijk out, Jota and TAA in
      B - Vardy & Jorginho out, Nacho & Jota in
      C - DCL & Jorginho out, Jota & Davis (4.2) in

      Martinez, 3.9
      Cancelo Dias Rudiger Struijk Shaw
      Salah Bruno Gundogan Mount Jorginho
      Kane Vardy DCL

      2FT, 0.7itb

      Cheers!

      1. Lav
        • 4 Years
        29 days, 57 mins ago

        B

    • Kane Lane
      • 6 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      Currently on WC.

      Who should I have for one week punt to swap over to Son following week.

      Salah or KDB? Currently got Jota but do sees Villa and Leeds games being high scoring.

      1. Lav
        • 4 Years
        29 days, 1 hour ago

        Raz. Was a sub at the weekend, didnt play today. He is set to start surely. Mahrez has not had a rest recently, Phil played the 90 today. If you want to protect rank then I guess KDB.

    • Lav
      • 4 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      18.8m to fill out four spots on WC and its tough. Want Raz on a 1 week punt before downgrade to Son for 32...

      Mendy Forster
      Shaw Stones x x Phillips
      Salah Bruno Raz Jota JLingz
      Kane x x

    • Herman Toothrot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      Liking the idea of Sterling for this week before switching to Son.

      Current WC:

      Mendy
      TAA // Rudiger // Coady
      Salah // Sterling // Bruno // Jota // Lingard
      Kane // Nacho

      Foster // Vydra // Holding // Amartey

      Alternatively, ignore Sterling and keep Son to allow me:

      Sterling to Son
      Amartey to Shaw (Lots in defence)
      Vydra to Fabio Silva (Punt)

      Thoughts?

      1. Herman Toothrot
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        29 days, 1 hour ago

        Coady to Saiss too

      2. Lav
        • 4 Years
        29 days, 1 hour ago

        Have the exact same midfield on my WC + Kane. Different defense though. Coady is a shout and a player I may consider. You reckon TAA is still good even after today?

    • Avery
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      29 days, 1 hour ago

      Best (C)aptain options - for this week

      A. KDB
      B. Bruno
      C. Kane
      D. Jota
      E. Vardy
      F. Maddison

      KDB most likely rested or limited mins after tonight’s showing right?

      1. Lav
        • 4 Years
        29 days, 45 mins ago

        G. Raz

      2. Hits from the Bong
        • 2 Years
        29 days, 37 mins ago

        H. Salah
        I. Lindgard

    • Alcapaul
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      29 days, 56 mins ago

      My team this week is:

      Pope
      Rudiger Shaw Dias
      Jota Gundo Bruno Son Lingard
      Bamford Kane

      Do you think it's worth a -4 to do Watkins out for Iheanacho? I would bench Bamford.

      1. Major League Shocker
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        29 days, 50 mins ago

        No, Leicester's good fixtures don't start until 32.

    • Lav
      • 4 Years
      29 days, 42 mins ago

      Havent had Lingard yet this season, and wanted him on a WC, but I might even wait longer now. Leicester, Newcastle, Chelsea in their next three. I think it will be tough, even Newcastle away as they fight for survival. Reckon Neto could be an enabler for a midfield of Salah Bruno Raz Jota. Then Raz to Son and reshift team as we close out the season...

      1. Lav
        • 4 Years
        29 days, 42 mins ago

        This is me just typing my thoughts out lol

      2. The Suspended One
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        29 days, 7 mins ago

        Fitness dependent, he’s the first name on the team sheet for me. Team has been solid and supplying chances, if Antonio is fit, he’s going to keep scoring

    • Hits from the Bong
      • 2 Years
      29 days, 39 mins ago

      Should I be wildcarding this week? I’m so undecided. I’m planning on TC in 32 and BB in 35. Took a -4 for this team, but now Antonio is a doubt.. Any input appreciated.

      Martinez Forster
      Stones AWB Dunk Dallas Coufal
      Salah Bruno Son Lindgard Jota
      Kane Antonio Bamford

    • Gun gun
      • 4 Years
      29 days, 37 mins ago

      Do you think foden or kdb will start vs leeds?
      What about jota chances of starting vs aston?

      1. The Suspended One
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        29 days, 12 mins ago

        Both
        Doubt it but could do, I’ll take 30

    • PP6
      • 2 Years
      29 days, 35 mins ago

      Thoughts on Gundo and Antonio to Kelechi and Jota -4? With exact cash. Antonio news sounds promising and Gundo has Leeds? Help would be appreciated thanks a lot.

      1. BaleKaneSon
          29 days, 30 mins ago

          I would hold antonio is there any strikers you could move?

          1. PP6
            • 2 Years
            29 days, 30 mins ago

            He’s injured mate !

            1. The Suspended One
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              29 days, 14 mins ago

              I wouldn’t hit Antonio out; he wasn’t seriously injured and has plenty of time to be declared fit. Hits are cancer late in the season

        • Hits from the Bong
          • 2 Years
          29 days, 30 mins ago

          Yeah, I would. Just done Gundo to Jota, he could well get a monster haul versus Leeds but can’t be doing with the roulette

          1. PP6
            • 2 Years
            29 days, 29 mins ago

            Exactly that! Thanks would have to move tonight which is a shame

      2. Leif Erikson-Formerly of La…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        29 days, 32 mins ago

        Any love for an Aguero (c) punt? About 70 points behind the ML leader... Reckon I need to make a move soon.

        1. BaleKaneSon
            29 days, 29 mins ago

            Great shout

          • Twisted Saltergater
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            29 days, 27 mins ago

            Why not Jesus? Didn't play tonight.

            1. Leif Erikson-Formerly of La…
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              29 days, 21 mins ago

              Believe the holy one played 30 mins but ya... Still likely to feature vs Leeds!

              1. Hits from the Bong
                • 2 Years
                29 days, 19 mins ago

                I’d rather an overweight and unfit Aguero than Jesus any day of the week

                1. The Suspended One
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  29 days, 12 mins ago

                  This

            2. dunas_dog
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 5 Years
              29 days, 17 mins ago

              He played - came on after 59 minutes for Bilva

          • The Suspended One
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            29 days, 16 mins ago

            Two pieces of advice to live by:

            No glove, no love

            No knee cartilage, no C

        2. BaleKaneSon
            29 days, 31 mins ago

            Raph or Gundo for Jota? Have no free hit and also have KDB in my midfield

            1. Twisted Saltergater
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 11 Years
              29 days, 27 mins ago

              I'd rather have Raphinha than Jota, tbh.

              1. Hits from the Bong
                • 2 Years
                29 days, 24 mins ago

                Man City, Liverpool, Man Utd next 3 though

                1. BaleKaneSon
                    29 days, 21 mins ago

                    Leaning towards getting rid of Gundo because of the rotation risk and gives me 11 for the blanks for gw33

              2. The White Pele
                • 3 Years
                29 days, 19 mins ago

                Raph

              3. The Suspended One
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                29 days, 17 mins ago

                I did Raph, but I will buy back

            2. The White Pele
              • 3 Years
              29 days, 20 mins ago

              considering FH this week from :

              Fabianski
              Rudiger Veltman Coufal
              Bruno son Bale gundo Raphinha
              Kane Antonio

              DDG Watkins Konsa Dallas ,1ft, 4m itb

              to: Leno
              Alonso Rudiger Cedric
              Sterling Mount Salah Jota
              Aguero Ings Laca
              3.9 Gundogan Vestergaard Phillips
              thoughts? save for later?

              1. The Suspended One
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                29 days, 17 mins ago

                Save

            3. The Suspended One
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              29 days, 17 mins ago

              I wonder how it is that so many people identified this as the week to WC.. so much uncertainty and rotation. You guys know you aren’t required to do what “pundits” say, right?

              Monkey see?

            4. Lav
              • 4 Years
              29 days, 14 mins ago

              TAA or Salah to pair with Jota? Want all three, but it is impossible given I am punting on Raz for one week.

              1. The Suspended One
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                29 days, 10 mins ago

                Why? I think Peps messaging has been loud and clear...

                Mahrez same risk, much better form/ value

                1. Lav
                  • 4 Years
                  29 days, 4 mins ago

                  Raz did not play in the UCL and was benched at the weekend with a small cameo in which he got an assist. He plays given Pep going on about rotation. Phil played the 90.

                  1. The Suspended One
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    28 days, 23 hours ago

                    It’s called Pep Roulette, not Pep takes turns

                    Sterling has not played well this year and his game time has suffered; started 2 of last 6 in the prem since Pep went on his rant

                    1. Hits from the Bong
                      • 2 Years
                      28 days, 23 hours ago

                      Yes, this

            5. Vazza
                29 days, 13 mins ago

                Thoughts please gents

                A. Ayling >> Robbo (free)
                B. Veltman, Gundo >> TAA, Neto (4pt hit)
                C. Veltman, Watkins/Antonio >> TAA, Nacho (4pt hit)
                D. Something else

                Current team

                ——————Areola——————
                ———Veltman Dias Stones———
                —Bruno Salah Gundo Son Jota—
                ————-Antonio* Kane————-

                Bench: Forster, Watkins, Ayling, Struijk

                FH available for GW33