Spot the Differential

In-form Tierney an appealing FPL differential for Blank Gameweek 18

******Please not that this feature was written before the postponement of Aston Villa v Burnley on Saturday afternoon******

Gameweek 18 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is almost upon us, which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

KIERAN TIERNEY

  • FPL ownership: 5.2%
  • Price: £4.8m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: lee | nor | WOL | MCI | tot

At 5.2% ownership, Kieran Tierney (£4.8m) sits just above our usual differential threshold, but with a vastly reduced pool of players to pick from this week, we’ve made an exception.

The 24-year-old has endured a difficult season at the Emirates, having suffered his fair share of injury problems, but now looks to have turned a corner, starting all three of Arsenal’s most recent Premier League outings. During that time, he has produced a whopping 31 points, and ranks joint-fifth amongst all defenders for passes received in the final third.

For Arsenal, it does feel like progress is being made, as they now sit in the Champions League qualification places, having taken 29 points from a possible 42 since Gameweek 4. Notably, they have kept eight clean sheets in those 14 fixtures, a total no team can better and only Manchester City and Liverpool can match.

Up next for Mikel Arteta’s side is a trip to Elland Road, followed by games against Norwich City and Wolverhampton Wanderers, the two worst performing attacks in the division this season. As a result, Tierney has potential for points at both ends of the pitch and could be a smart differential for those on the lookout for a new defender.

JACOB RAMSEY

Five-time top 1k FPL finisher Tom Freeman on Villa under Gerrard and his Gameweek 13 plans 9
  • FPL ownership: 1.1%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: BUR | CHE | lee | bre | MUN

In recent weeks, Jacob Ramsey (£4.5m) has established himself as one of Aston Villa’s main attacking threats.

The 20-year-old has started five of Steven Gerrard’s six games in charge, netting against Norwich City on Tuesday, with his performance in the 2-0 win arguably his best of the season to date.

Whether deployed on the left of Villa’s midfield three, or further forward as an inside forward, Ramsey has excelled, producing a respectable six goal attempts, five shots in the box and nine penalty box touches across his last five starts.

“I never watch my stuff back unless someone else has put it on the telly! But listen, he should try and watch as much football as he can and learn off as many people as he can. That is the mentality I want, for him to keep trying to be the best version of himself. The goal was really impressive, a tight one-two and then the power and speed to get into the box and finish on his weaker side. It was a top, top goal. But I don’t want the goal to take away from the fact his overall performance was really top level. I am really excited to keep working with him.” – Steven Gerrard when asked about Ramsey’s admission that he had been inspired by watching clips of him

Under Gerrard, it’s four wins in six for Villa, having beaten Brighton and Hove Albion, Crystal Palace, Leicester City and Norwich, with their only losses arriving against the current top two: Manchester City and Liverpool. The Villans now take on Burnley in tomorrow’s Gameweek 18 opener, before appealing away trips to Leeds United and Brentford to follow.

In a short space of time, Ramsey has proven he has the physical and technical ability to thrive in the Premier League, and with minutes now more assured in the absence of Marvelous Nakamba (£4.5m), he looks ready to kick-on.

CHRIS WOOD

Scout Notes 4
  • FPL ownership: 1.4%
  • Price: £6.7m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: avl | EVE | mun | lee | LEI

With just three goals in 16 Premier League appearances, it’s been a slow start to the season for Chris Wood (£6.7m).

However, the New Zealand international has been a model of consistency since joining Burnley from Leeds United back in August 2017, scoring at least 10 top-flight goals in each of his four Premier League campaigns.

This season, he has posted team-leading totals for goal attempts, shots in the box, efforts on target, big chances and penalty area touches, and while performances have taken a dip in recent weeks, Wood is generally a dependable member of Sean Dyche’s squad who he often turns to in big moments.

Looking ahead to Gameweek 18, Burnley have a testing trip to a much-improved Aston Villa side, though fixtures against Everton (h), Leeds United (a) and Leicester City (h) to follow are all particularly appealing, given that those three sides rank 16th, 18th and 15th respectively for expected goals conceded (xGC) across the opening rounds.

Notably, Wood didn’t score his third goal of the campaign until December last year, but then went on a run, finding the back of the net nine times across his next 20 appearances. Hitting those same heights again is a big ask, but Wood has proven he can deliver consistently over the years, and could be an effective differential for our frontlines in the coming weeks.

1,755 Comments Post a Comment
  1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    would you do

    Livra, Pukki and Ronaldo to Cancelo, Laca and Watkins -8?

    or

    Bissouma to foden and ronaldo to Watkins -4?

    I like the first one

    1. lugs
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      i'd take the -8 to get 11 out or close to 11

      1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        thinking that, also potentially improves the team and gets rid of a few duds

    2. jia you
      • 7 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Try to get XI out and screw the begrudgers 😉

      1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        knowing my luck this season all 3 will be sent off

        1. jia you
          • 7 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          same, having a shocker, even more reason to just go ahead and do it mate...GL

    3. putana
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      can you not make the second one -8 and get in cancelo?

      1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 13 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        unfortunately not

  2. jia you
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Locked & Loaded, GL for the GW all!

    Meslier
    Cancelo Trent Robertson James
    KdB(C) Foden Jota Martinelli
    Lacazette Watkins
    (Gunn Bowen Dennis Livra)
    1.4itb

    1. Iceball
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      How many hits?

      1. jia you
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        -8

  3. Il Capitano
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    1FT 0ITB

    Guaita*
    TAA James White Cancelo
    Salah Jota Bernardo ESR Brownhill
    Watkins

    Foster* - Ronaldo* King* Livra*

    A) Ronaldo > Laca
    B) Ronaldo + Guaita > Laca + Ederson/Martinez (-4)
    C) Ronaldo + Guaita > Wood? + Ramsdale (-4)
    D) King + Guaita > Gelhardt + Ramsdale (-4)
    E) Save

    1. HonestBlatter
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  4. FITZ-G
    • 2 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    1FT
    Duffy to Tierney/Tomiy, Semedo, Cash, Other?
    &
    Foster to Ramsdale Or B.Williams to another defender?

  5. Costa Nostra
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Hypothetically if the season was to get postponed...and you took a hit or two before the GW started....assuming they give us all a WC like last time...would those hits go away and would your team be with the players you brought in or would it revert back to who you had before the hits? Having a hard time remembering....

    1. FPL Theorist
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      No, the GW would stand with a score of 0 (-4) or 0 (-8), whatever it may be.

      1. Costa Nostra
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        So even though the GW never started you just lose points and then you get a WC before the league resumes?

        1. FPL Theorist
          • 4 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Yes, you'd get a negative score in GW18 and then it would resume later with unlimited transfers in GW18+ (followed by 19+, etc.) Technically not a WC as you have to use it the first GW when it resumes.

          1. Costa Nostra
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            2 years, 4 months ago

            Wow that's rough! Didn't realize that's how it went last time. Thanks!

  6. TorresMagic™
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Only 100 minutes left before price changes.

  7. davies
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Which?

    A) King Foden

    B) Antonio Gundogan

    1. HonestBlatter
      • 13 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B

  8. Hazz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Bummed out about losing Ronaldo before NEW & now doubles soon...

    TAA Cancelo James Alonso
    Salah Jota Bilva
    Gelhardt

    DDG, Steele, Ronaldo, King, Gallagher, Bowen, Livramento

    How many hits would you suggest?
    (Tomorrow, not tonight.)

    A) Which of Bowen/Gallagher > Foden?
    B) Ronaldo > Watkins? (Y/N)
    C) DDG > Ramsdale? (Y/N)
    D) Arsenal mid?
    E) Livramento > White?

    1. FPL Theorist
      • 4 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A only (Gallagher out).

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Gallagher: TOT/NOR
        Bowen: SOU/WAT

        Sure?

        And given CRY could double soon?

        https://twitter.com/BigManBakar/status/1471870634288422912?t=YNh1Mm66y3_ZdODr04nzSA&s=19

  9. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Team looks good paper, meaning nailed on for a 22 pointer GW :mrgreen:

    Ramsdale
    Trent Cancelo Alonso
    Salah Bilva Sterlo(c) Raphinha Martinelli
    Laca Watkins

    Steele* Semedo Livra* Scarlet

  10. HonestBlatter
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Watking or Laca?

    1. Il Capitano
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Watkins

  11. jdogg
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Bowen to foden to field 10 with no keeper?x

    1. Gabbiadini
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      yep

    2. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I would, and mostly am going to, along with Sanchez + Livra > Ramsdale + Tierney/Cash

    3. Il Capitano
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Yep

    4. jdogg
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Cheers guys.x

  12. Gabbiadini
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Anyone else looking at an Arsenal mid this week and then offloading to a West Ham mid gw20?

  13. WhatWouldYourZlatanSay
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Bottomed

    Team as it stands…

    Ramsdale

    TAA-Cancelo-James-Tomiyasu
    Salah-Foden-Jota-Bernardo
    Watkins

    Out- Sanchez, King, Maupay, Livra.

    Got 1ft and 0.2 and assuming I’d want to go last minute to a Saturday player to minimise risk…

    A. Livra> Lowton
    B. Gallagher> ESR
    C. Gallagher > McGinn (B and C lose a bit of value on Gal)
    D. Suck it up, roll the FT, could be useful etc

    Cheers!

  14. The FPL Units
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Revised transfer.....

    (-4) Guaita, Livra & Guehi => Ramsdale, Targett & Davies

    Trying not to rip my team apart.

    Ramsdale
    TAA Cancelo James Targett Davies
    Salah Jota Bilva ESR

    Out: Foster CR7 King Dennis Bowen

    Do it?

  15. Mr. Mystic
    • 13 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Who to bring in this week? Laca or Watkins?

    1. jernej93
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Watkins

    2. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Ollie ollie oxen free!

  16. FPL Doctor
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    No more FTs

    Ramsdale
    TAA Cancelo James
    Salah Foden Jota Bilva Gallagher*
    Watkins Wilson

    A) Field 10
    B) Gallagher —> Saka (-4)

    1. WhatWouldYourZlatanSay
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      My team is nearly identical- I’m having the same thought re:Gallagher, though I’d lose a bit of value.

      Contemplating McGinn and ESR.

    2. jernej93
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Gallagher has a better long term value .. I would field 10

    3. OptimusBlack
      • 11 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      B- ESR better than Saka

    4. DARE TO BISCAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Of the two options, I choose A

  17. Costa Nostra
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Might be time to get that VirtualFPL game ready to go again! Loved that!

  18. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
    • 10 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    If Leeds get a pen its so gonna be saved from Raph by Ramsdale

    1. Paqueta Rice
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Then retaken for encroachment and Raphina scores

  19. Pep Roulette
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Captain? Salah?

    1. Gabbiadini
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      him or foden for me.

    2. It’s gonna Ben Mee
      • 10 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Mr. No Blanks

  20. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    If on Monday a 2 week break in PL games is agreed and games don’t start up pre week 20 what would that mean for first WC if not used ?

    1. Paqueta Rice
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Wouldn’t a 2 week break just push back the game weeks? So, later date but still pre game week 20?

      1. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        That didn’t happen last time- then everyone got unlimited transfers on restart so if same happens the benefit of keeping WC would be meaningless

  21. jernej93
    • 9 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    9 playing with 1 FT still in hand:

    1. Gilmour -> Mount/ESR
    2. Antonio -> Laca
    3. Gallagher -> Foden
    4. Gallagher and Antonio -> Foden and Laca (-4)
    5. Foster and Gilmour -> 3.9 GK and Foden (-4)
    6. Antonio and Gilmour -> 7.6 striker and Foden

    I am 0.1 short to do Gilmour to Foden straight away ...

    1. Ray85
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      4 .

      Would have said 6 but you're priced out of Watkins unless you go Bernardo/Grealish/Gundogan

      1. jernej93
        • 9 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        I already have Watkins 🙂

  22. Ray85
    • 6 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Maddison to Saka/Martinelli to take a -8 and get a full 11 out...? Arsenal have a couple of decent fixtures coming up too.

  23. Grimmy
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    My team:
    Ramsdale
    TAA, Alonso, Cancelo, James, Reguilon
    Mount, Salah, Jota, Silva
    Antonio

    Bench: Sanchez,Gallagher, Dennis, Broja
    ITB:1,5m

    Thinking of Antonio to Watkins, but should I get rid of Gallagher for Saka/ESR in case Reguilon doesn't play and take -4?
    Thoughts??

  24. CROWLEY NOT CRAWLEY
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    1 FT, 4.2 ITB (sold CR7 last week)

    First Decision - good with this regardless as having two keepers on the same team is a problem for Covid
    A. Steele to Sa
    B. Steele to Ramsdale
    C. Steele to ?

    Second Decision - take a hit to field 11
    Y/N? Livramento to Dias (-4)

    Leaning towards: B & Y

    Full team today:
    Sanchez*, Steele*
    TAA, Rudiger, James, Cancelo, Livramento*
    ESR, Salah, Jota, Foden, Bowen*
    Watkins, King*, Locadia*

    1. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I like B also, and very much having the same line of thinking below with transferring out reserve GK instead of main one.

      1. CROWLEY NOT CRAWLEY
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Hah thanks, mate - I just responded to yours as well.

        1. Salah’s Sonnet
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          Yeah we must of done it simultaneously haha, no probs and thanks man!

  25. Paqueta Rice
    • 3 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Lukaku and Zaha to Watkins and Foden tonight or swallow the price changes?

  26. Salah’s Sonnet
    • 12 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Here's how i'll be lining up this GW guys.

    Sanchez*
    Cancelo - James - TAA
    ESR - Jota - Salah - B.Silva
    Antonio* - Watkins - Dennis*
    ______________________________
    Foster: Reguillon: Bowen*: Livramento*

    A) Sanchez > Ramsdale
    B) Sanchez + Livramento > Ramsdale + Tierney/Gabriel/White (-4)
    C) Sanchez + Livramento + Bowen > Ramdsale + Tierney + Foden (-8)

    Also, the GK move, would you just do Foster out instead so then have two playing GK's?

    Open to suggestions, hits are paying off though big of late due to players simply not playing.

    1FT, 3.4 ITB. Cheers. gents.

    1. CROWLEY NOT CRAWLEY
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Looking at similar. Have Sanchez/Steele.

      Doing Steele to Ramsdale - pretty set on that. Then also debating moving Livramento on for a -4. Also leaning towards yes but upgrading to 5.0+ defender.

      So for you - you have the cash to get Foster out...could be helpful having two playing keepers?

      1. Salah’s Sonnet
        • 12 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        Haha we must of replied to each others posts at the same time, cheers buddy, yeah it's an opportunity to move out Foster i guess isn't it so would defo be useful having 2 playing GK's through this current dodgy period. I like your moves, i'll defo be taking a -4 minimum then i reckon, they're worth it.

  27. The Polymath
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Which other Man City mid to get? Have Bilva already.

    A) Foden
    B) KDB
    C) Gundogan

    1. jernej93
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. Salah’s Sonnet
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Gotta be Foden, value is awesome when he plays.

    3. Il Capitano
      • 3 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      A

  28. OptimusBlack
    • 11 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    It's Risky to get Foden ? I think get ESR is better move ?

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I think Foden one of first names on team sheet if fit

    2. DARE TO BISCAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Both have their risks.

  29. Champions League Varane
    • 5 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    Is De Gea to Ramsdale for free even worth it? Find it hard removing one of my favourite players and he has great fixtures and doubles to come.. surely this is the last game we miss too! Sadly don’t have enough to upgrade second keeper either.

    1. Ray85
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      No - not sure Arsenal will keep a CS tomorrow, not a great away record.

    2. Costa Nostra
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I'm struggling with this as well. But I think keeping DeGea and upgrading Steele to Ramsdale is gonna be my move. Having two solid playing GK's will come in handy during these uncertain times.

    3. DARE TO BISCAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      '.. surely this is the last game we miss too!'
      - sounds like wishful thinking.
      If DDG your only issue, may as well keep & play 10.

  30. A Moon Shaped Pool
    • 7 Years
    2 years, 4 months ago

    I would advise anyone not to take hits. I played with 10 men last gw and I get 72 pts without a goalkeeper. It’s okay to play with just 10 men

    1. Costa Nostra
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Yeah? How about 8? 9?

      1. A Moon Shaped Pool
        • 7 Years
        2 years, 4 months ago

        I make 1 transfer last gw and that’s it. My logic is everyone around you taking hits while you’re just without a complete 11 so not going to affect my OR that much

        1. Salah’s Sonnet
          • 12 Years
          2 years, 4 months ago

          I dont agree either, FPL is about maximising points chances every GW, so even more of a reason now with postponements, it's an opportunity too good to miss. I've been taking hits since postponements and have soared to top of my main ML.

    2. lugs
      • 6 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      don't agree, its team dependent, took 3 players out without a game this week, and replaced them with 3 that played, for scores of 12, 12, 1, and finished the gw 88-8 also with only 10 players

    3. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      Depends on the team set-up ultimately

      If you don't have a full team, the hit in theory is only 2 points (as you should get 2 appearance points at the least), although in practice you also need to consider the opportunity cost if you transfer out a player who you'd want next week etc.

    4. DARE TO BISCAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 years, 4 months ago

      I'm on 7 potentially playing. Planning 3 (no 1-weekers) transfers for -8