Yin and Yang Strategies in FPL

In traditional Chinese philosophy, the yin and the yang represent dualities such as feminine and masculine, night and day, and winter and summer. I’ve started to think this is a useful aspect of analysing the way we play FPL. Strategies based around flexibility can be thought of as yin strategies, while strategies that strive to maximise gains as quickly as possible are yang strategies.

Disclaimer: We are currently in a very unusual period affected by lots of postponements. I don’t mean to suggest that these strategies will fully cope with all the disruption at the present moment.

Yin Strategies

To further my central aim of avoiding wasted transfers, there are at least three strategies that we can use to maintain flexibility and reduce the need for more transfers to get where we want to go: price points, a strong bench, and leaving money in the bank. These don’t need to all be employed simultaneously, but I find it is useful to always be employing at least one. In the first mini-season, with inevitably low team value, I generally feel there is no alternative to using price points. By the second mini-season, I often have a less flexible team in mind that I want, but then I can still counterbalance that with the other yin strategies. People who don’t employ any of the yin strategies are often stuck in a position where they must make an elaborate plan for many future transfers, which can easily be disrupted by an untimely injury or price change.

I had 6 consecutive gameweeks this season sitting on at least £3 million in the bank, largely from downgrading the injured Romelu Lukaku to a much cheaper forward. Mohamed Salah was my only premium attacker, but I could use the £3 million at any time to upgrade a cheaper midfielder or forward to any player in the game that I might want to captain. Despite having sacrificed some flexibility in terms of price points by going with four premium defenders on my wildcard, I was not feeling worried about how I might get Harry Kane or Cristiano Ronaldo for the next time I might want a non-Salah captain. In essence, it’s as if contrary to the proverb, a bird in the bush is worth two in the hand. This strategy obviously isn’t as good for a season when premiums are delivering most of the points, but if they aren’t, then I could see myself owning just one premium for long spells of the season, with an easy route to getting another when needed.

A set-and-forget part of the team in which transfers do not need to be used is also a yin strategy, whether it’s set-and-forget heavy hitters (Traditional FPL) or “glue guys” (Upside Chasing). Rolling a transfer is a yin strategy, especially if you do it several weeks in a row, rather than immediately spending the two transfers once you have them. That’s particularly true if you roll the transfer in a blank gameweek to enable attacking a subsequent double gameweek with two transfers.

Holding the first wildcard until things become much clearer is another yin strategy. It requires enough confidence to resist the persistent myths promoted by managers who play their wildcard earlier – that they’ll get ahead in team value, and later wildcarders will be priced out of the template players. In reality, sacrificing the additional information gained by waiting to play the wildcard can be quite reckless. Teams that started the season poorly such as Arsenal are too easily written off, while other teams like Brentford may have looked surprisingly good against tough opposition, but actually struggle to break down weaker opposition when their fixtures seemingly improve.

Yang Strategies

So what are yang strategies? Well, most of the more conventional FPL strategies are yang strategies, seizing the moment to try and make big gains as quickly as possible. “Put all your money on the pitch” is the perfect yang strategy. It sounds obvious at some level, but there are benefits to being able to react to injuries by simply bringing a player off your bench rather than having to sell the injured player immediately. I’m always irritated by hearing that a certain player is too expensive to bench. Not that you want to bench premium players when they are going to play, but if they have a blank gameweek or a short-term absence, such as due to Covid, then it’s often better to bench than spend multiple transfers taking the player out and bringing him back in. Still, the prevailing dogmas demonstrate the immense popularity of the yang approach in this instance.

Having a very inflexible team with funds concentrated in one category of players, such as premium attackers, is an aggressive yang strategy that may be the way to go at times, but is tough to sustain over long periods. Pursuing team value intensely is also very yang, but as usual, yin and yang can work together beautifully. In 2020-21 Mark Sutherns spoke of counterbalancing a heavy team value strategy with money spent on his bench, protecting him from having to take hits if his early moves don’t work out. Mark often approaches an unfavourable gameweek with remarkable equanimity, saying he fully expects a red arrow that week, but over the longer term, he’s confident his moves will pay off. Like an expert in guerrilla warfare, he draws the enemy in and then strikes when the time favours him most.

When and How to Use Yin and Yang Strategies

Proponents of the Blue Philosophy obviously like yin strategies a lot, but not exclusively. It’s not necessary or helpful to pursue too many yin strategies all at once. Blue managers might choose to go big-at-the-back for a large part of the season, which is relatively inflexible. However, the disadvantages can be offset by pursuing other yin strategies, such as having a number of cheap midfielders that can be rotated, or leaving money in the bank to be able to get to a desired premium on short notice. For much of this season, I’ve preferred to rotate Emile Smith Rowe and Conor Gallagher, starting only the one with the better fixture, rather than owning one £6.5 million permanent starter and a fodder midfielder.

Yang strategies are most suited to the final mini-season that begins with the second wildcard. During that part of the season, hits designed to capitalise on double gameweeks can easily pay off, enabling some structural change to the team as multiple transfers will often be used of necessity. By this time of the season, it may be necessary to go for broke anyway, if you’re far off your goals and need to capitalise on whatever small chance you may have of achieving them. Tripling up on a certain team’s attack or defence could be a way to capture some short-term variance in a way that would not work over an entire season.

Conclusion 

Knowing how to use both yin and yang strategies effectively is an important skill in FPL. Choosing an appropriate yin strategy for each part of the season can maximise flexibility, preventing wasted transfers and hits.