Salah’s slump, Raphinha’s assist and KDB’s form: FPL Gameweek 31 review

We round up the key Fantasy Premier League (FPL) talking points from Saturday’s Gameweek 31 fixtures in our Scout Notes summary.

The graphics below are taken from LiveFPL, Ragabolly’s excellent and ever-improving website (which now has a new look!), and our own Premium Members Area.

GOALS, ASSISTS AND BONUS

INJURIES AND BANS

The fit-again Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.4m) returned to the Liverpool matchday squad on Saturday but wasn’t risked in the starting XI by Jurgen Klopp, with Joe Gomez (£4.7m) instead starting at right-back – and delivering an assist that his benched teammate would have been proud of for Diogo Jota‘s (£8.3m) opening goal.

Jurgen Klopp downplayed possible concerns over Curtis Jones (£5.0m) and Joel Matip (£5.0m) at full-time, meanwhile.

“I’m not sure it’s a concern yet, he just wanted a strapping; he twisted his ankle and wanted a strapping, but we wanted to change anyway. He got the strapping but after he came off. He obviously could walk normally but I didn’t see him yet. I think that should be the only one [injury concern].

“Joel Matip had a proper [knock], it looked like a golf ball here [on his head] but it was nothing serious, it was just a bruise and had swollen up a little bit. He said he was completely fine, that’s why we had the strapping there. That’s it, I’m pretty sure.” – Jurgen Klopp

Staying in the north-west, Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.2m) missed out on Manchester United’s match against Leicester City with an illness and Luke Shaw (£5.0m) was replaced at half-time.

“Unfortunately, he had some ‘flu-like symptoms, which he showed yesterday. Obviously, he should and would have played in the starting XI but he didn’t feel well and couldn’t train.

“Then the doctor went to see him at his house this morning to check again but he didn’t feel any better and that’s why, unfortunately, that’s why he hasn’t been able to play.

“We will play our normal formation that we always play, with Bruno as a striker at a times, but also maybe as a midfielder. Paul Pogba is one of the two offensive midfield players and this is how I have decided to play.” – Ralf Rangnick on Cristiano Ronaldo

“He had some problems last week, when he was with the England team, with his old injury when he had an operation on a broken leg. This showed up again today. That’s the reason why we had to substitute him at half-time.” – Ralf Rangnick on Luke Shaw

Elsewhere, Lucas Digne (£5.1m) lasted all of 13 minutes of Aston Villa’s defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers before suffering what seemed like a recurrence of his hamstring injury but Steven Gerrard confirmed after full-time that it was only a stomach complaint.

Jakub Moder (£4.5m) was on the pitch for even less time at the Amex, coming on as a substitute and soon having to be replaced himself after suffering what Graham Potter thinks is a serious knee injury.

There are two more absences to report, neither of which were due to injury or illness: Danny Ings (£7.7m) missed out at Molineux as his partner had just given birth, while Thomas Tuchel said that Trevoh Chalobah (£4.7m) was a mere tactical omission.

FPL TALKING POINTS

WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT SALAH

It’s three months to the day that Mohamed Salah (£13.3m) signed off Premier League duty with a goal before jetting off to the Africa Cup of Nations.

Since then, he’s scored just one goal from open play in six league starts and two substitute appearances.

Of course, he’s also converted three penalties in that time – and spot-kick duties are a legitimate part of a player’s appeal.

But there’s no denying that he’s not quite been at his best since coming back from Cameroon, with Hassane Kamara (£4.5m) the latest left-back to get the better of him.

In fairness, he’s always given the ball away and been a little bit wasteful, even when things are going well. Despite the ‘drought’, if we can call it that, he’s still posting some very good numbers: he’s underachieving more than any other Premier League player when it comes to non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI, see below) since that Chelsea goal, so we wouldn’t expect to see such a disparity continue for too long.

Still, there’s a valid question to be asked over whether the funds needed for him are best spent elsewhere in the next two Gameweeks at least, with Manchester City up next and Liverpool not having a ‘double’ in Gameweek 33.

CHELSEA’S ANNUAL EARLY-APRIL MADNESS

Almost exactly a year since Chelsea were thumped 5-2 at home to West Bromwich Albion, the Blues were trounced on home soil by another newly-promoted Premier League club.

Brentford did the damage this time, running in four goals and wasting more opportunities aside.

This loss came as out of the blue as last year’s. Thomas Tuchel’s side had avoided defeat (a penalty shootout aside) in their previous 14 matches in all competitions going into the game against Brentford, and had conceded just four goals in the last nine of those.

A Vitaly Janelt (£4.9m) brace, a goal from substitute Yoane Wissa (£5.7m) and a feelgood strike from Christian Eriksen (£5.5m) saw Thomas Frank’s side secure all three points and very probably Premier League safety; just to prove how freakish the result was and how we shouldn’t rush to conclusions about Chelsea’s defence, the Bees racked up more big chances (four) in this match than Tuchel’s troops had conceded in their last five league fixtures (three).

The Bees are one of the few clubs without a Double Gameweek to come, so aren’t big FPL transfer targets right now, but they are hitting some good attacking form, ranking highly for goals scored, big chances, shots in the box and more over their last four matches (see above).

We can at least expect Thomas Tuchel to get a reaction out of his players after Saturday. Following last year’s reverse against West Brom, Chelsea lost only one of their next ten matches in all competitions (even that was against Porto, who they beat over two legs) and kept six clean sheets.

Reece James (£6.1m) scored a big fat zero on his comeback as a second-half substitute here but Antonio Rudiger (£6.1m) finally found the net with one of his long-distance howitzers. Remarkably, his tally of six shots against Brentford was the joint-second-highest of Gameweek 31 so far (see below).

BARNES AND MADDISON IMPRESS

Two sides who will be big FPL targets in Double Gameweek 33 faced off at Old Trafford, and the usual frailties were there for all to see.

Neither defence looked particularly watertight, something that has been the case for much of the season, while the hosts’ attacking assets like Jadon Sancho (£8.9m) and Bruno Fernandes (£11.6m) disappointed. Fernandes, deputising for Ronaldo up front, at least got into a couple of promising goalscoring positions before fluffing his lines.

James Maddison (£6.8m) and Harvey Barnes (£6.6m) were the most eye-catching from an FPL perspective, with the former claiming an assist for Kelechi Iheanacho‘s (£7.0m) opener and only being denied a match-winner and another massive haul by a foul spotted by the VAR. That’s now 14 attacking returns for Maddison from Gameweek 13 onwards, a total unbeaten by any other midfielder in that time.

Barnes blanked but was Leicester’s main goal threat, looking lively and getting off six shots – more than the rest of his teammates combined.

An elimination from the UEFA Conference League will now be on many FPL managers’ wishlists, to help ensure that Barnes and Maddison aren’t rested on the domestic front in between continental ties.

ABOUT THAT ASSIST…

Raphinha (£6.5m) contributed a second assist in as many matches but there was a great deal of controversy about the award, at least in our small, quirky little corner of the world.

The Brazilian, again short of his best on Saturday, was awarded the three points for his role in Jack Harrison‘s (£5.5m) opener, a decision that split the FPL community down the middle.

A lack of a clear “intended target” for his cross – Raphinha hadn’t looked up before delivering the ball, although it was unquestionably nearer to Daniel James (£6.0m) – meant that FPL turned to the secondary consideration, an “intended area”, deeming Fraser Forster‘s (£4.4m) touch not to have significantly altered its end destination, the six-yard box.

In truth, the ball was probably going to reach neither James nor Harrison without the goalkeeper’s intervention (see below), and ironically it was the hit-and-hope nature and slight waywardness of the delivery that helped Raphinha’s case for an assist. Had his cross been more pinpoint and closer to James, there’d have most probably been no assist upon a Forster touch.

It’s a funny old game, is FPL….

Joe Gelhardt (£4.6m) wasn’t in the Leeds starting XI, despite owners and Whites fans alike hoping that would be the case. But, as happened in Gameweek 30, some missed training sessions before the match may have cost him a shot at a place in the line-up.

“Yeah, so one of the reasons why Joffy didn’t start this game was because he tested positive at one point during the week, but it was a false [positive], we think it might have been a false positive, so then he missed like a day and a half. And so it was a little bit of strange situation.

“So with Joffy, we haven’t been able to get him coming and get the rhythm and training and everything the way that we have wanted, which has meant that he’s played more of a reserve role, but I thought he came on the game and gave a real boost and was clear with the role and was dangerous at times and so we certainly I think you have to consider expanding his role more and more and more within the team and we need him to train. The plan will be I think that he plays with the 23s on Monday and hopefully gets more good game minutes and keeps adapting to the style of play we want.” – Jesse Marsch

THE BEST OF THE REST

Two sides who blank in Gameweek 33, and thus are low down on the short-term FPL radar, met at Molineux. Aston Villa were once more undone and outclassed by a top-eight club, with Philippe Coutinho (£7.4m) again anonymous against better opposition. The Villans will certainly come back onto the radar in Gameweek 34, when the fixtures improve and two Double Gameweeks are scheduled.

As for Wolves, Conor Coady (£4.9m) and Jose Sa (£5.3m) now look the safest routes into a backline that was only denied a 12th clean sheet of the season by a late penalty. The benched Romain Saiss (£5.1m) seems to now be in a three-way tussle for two centre-back spots, while Bruno Lage now has all of his senior options fit at wing-back – Jonny (£4.5m), with his second goal in two matches, and Marcal (£4.2m) excelled against Villa, but Nelson Semedo (£4.8m) and Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.4m) are waiting in the wings on the bench.

The most predictable result of the weekend came at the Amex, where Brighton and Hove Albion and Norwich City played out a goalless draw. These are the two most profligate teams in the division this season based on their shot-to-goal conversion rate, with the Seagulls outdoing themselves once again by racking up 31 goal attempts without success, one of which was a missed Neal Maupay (£6.5m) penalty.

Finally, did we really learn anything of note from Burnley v Manchester City? Not particularly, with the match going exactly the way as expected. The Clarets’ FPL assets will be judged on what they do from here on in (they meet only one ‘big six’ club between now and the end of the season and have two more Double Gameweeks to come), not a match in which they were predictably outclassed and could only rack up three shots.

As for City, rotation will continue to be the biggest drawback now that most of their players are fully fit. Joao Cancelo (£7.0m), Aymeric Laporte (£5.8m) and Kevin De Bruyne (£11.7m) are still the safest bets without being safe: their only benchings in City’s last 13 league fixtures came in the Gameweek 25 win over Norwich. De Bruyne is criminally underrepresented in terms of FPL ownership, sitting in less than 1% of sides in the top 10k, even more so when you consider that no-one in the division has accumulated more points since he returned to the City starting XI in Gameweek 17 (see below).