FPL Focal previews the weekend’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) action, taking a look at who the bookies think are the best bets for goals and clean sheets as well as monitoring the latest transfer trends.
Make sure to also check out G-Whizz’s weekly Hot Topic on fixture and clean sheet odds, which also looks back at how the bookmakers performed in the previous Gameweek.
GAMEWEEK 11: GOALSCORER ODDS
Starting off with the goalscorer odds, top spot for Gameweek 11 goes to Erling Haaland (£12.2m) and his 54% chance of scoring any time. With Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m) injured for two weeks and Joel Matip (£5.9m) reportedly out for a similar length of time, we could see Liverpool missing three of their favoured back four against Manchester City.
Harry Kane (£11.4m) is in second with a 52% chance of finding the net, as Spurs are at home to Everton. It’s been widely discussed that Everton’s total of nine goals conceded is the joint fewest in the league, however, it’s also worth pointing out that their 14.5 expected goals conceded (xGC) is the fourth-worst, suggesting they’ve been fortunate or overly reliant on the heroics of Jordan Pickford (£4.5m).
No team has overperformed their xGC more (-5.54) when assessing actual goals conceded, with Fulham (-1.05) next but a long way back. Therefore it could point towards a good week for Kane and Son Heung-min (£11.7m) owners.
We await further news on Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.8m). If back and available, then he’s in third with a 48% probability due to an eye-catching fixture at home to Bournemouth. When looking at the most sold players later on, the Serbian appears surprisingly high – he’s definitely one to wait on.
Meanwhile, Arsenal travel north to face Leeds United and Gabriel Jesus (£8.0m) has been given a 40% chance of scoring – providing he too is fit, as reported. If this is where he picks up his fifth yellow card of the season, Jesus actually won’t play again until Gameweek 14 as he’ll serve the suspension after Blank Gameweek 12.
GAMEWEEK 11: CLEAN SHEET ODDS
Moving onto the clean sheet odds, we see that Spurs are joint top with Wolverhampton Wanderers on 43%. Antonio Conte’s side follows their midweek home Champions League clash with this Saturday evening hosting, so no travelling is required this week.
Ivan Perisic (£5.5m) was benched last match, so perhaps should be held by owners for this week. The wing-back is capable of playing both on the left and right flanks, although we saw Matt Doherty (£4.6m) return to the starting line-up in Gameweek 10.
Wolves are at home to Forest, looking for their first points since Bruno Lage’s sacking. This makes their defenders worth some consideration, particularly those looking to sell the injured Alexander-Arnold or Wesley Fofana (£4.4m).
It’s the last fixture for Arsenal until Gameweek 13 and they’ve been given a 37% chance of a successful shut-out at Leeds. Additionally, Chelsea have the same odds away to Aston Villa and owners of Leicester City’s Danny Ward (£4.1m) have a decision to make, with Nick Pope (£5.3m) travelling to Manchester United.
Rock bottom this week are Leeds, with an 11% chance of a shut-out against Arsenal, followed closely by the 12% of the two Merseyside clubs.
GAMEWEEK 11: MOST TRANSFERS IN
For most popular transfers in, Man City’s Phil Foden (£8.2m) is the main target because of some wonderful form but, with a Blank Gameweek 12 for the reigning champions looming, you’ll have to have a contingency plan and/or a strong bench for next midweek.
The same can be said for Joao Cancelo (£7.3m), who is the second most-bought player. With the injury to Kyle Walker (£4.9m), Cancelo has been given license to get forward and looks more threatening, resulting in the 18-point haul of last weekend.
Over 2.5 million managers own Alexander-Arnold and are looking for a replacement now that he’ll miss at least three league encounters, taking the midweek Gameweek 12 into account. That has helped Kieran Trippier (£5.6m) become the third-most-popular transfer in.
Brighton and Hove Albion’s Leandro Trossard (£6.8m) is one to strongly consider, with the leaky Brentford and Nottingham Forest defences up next. The Seagulls are then away to Man City and at home to Chelsea, which is something to consider, but his long-term fixtures beyond that are still good.
Is Antony (£7.6m) worth the extra spend over Marcus Rashford (£6.5m)? He has three goals from his first three league games but there is a tough run of fixtures against Newcastle United (H), Spurs (H) and Chelsea (a). Antony is a real talent and has adjusted quickly to the league, so perhaps he is being overlooked because of the so-so schedule.
Reece James (£6.1m) is the tenth most-bought player but, in yet another reminder to delay your transfers wherever possible, he left the field with an injury on Tuesday night. We don’t yet know the extent of it and the hope is that the problem is minor.
GAMEWEEK 11: MOST TRANSFERS OUT
The injured Liverpool duo, Alexander-Arnold and Luis Diaz (£8.0m), are by far the most sold. Both are certainly ‘sells’, with Diaz out until December.
Mohamed Salah (£11.7m) is third after another disappointing game against Arsenal, where he blanked while the other four visiting attackers chipped in with an attacking return.
It’s a challenging call – the likes of Trossard, Antony and James Maddison (£8.3m) are some of the popular purchases but are they worth a Salah sale? If you’re a Salah owner, please share your thoughts below!
Mitrovic is the most sold striker heading into Gameweek 11, though again we should have further news nearer to the deadline. Marco Silva’s original comments indicated that he expected Mitrovic to be back for the Bournemouth match. If that’s the case, those that have already sold him are taking a needless risk.
1 year, 6 months agoMatt Doherty:
With tonight’s Spurs lineup confirmed I’m now looking at Doherty as an option for my Reece James replacement. Yes we’ve been here before, but with Royal’s PL suspension (EVE, united), his performance against Brighton, the player himself talking up starting a run of fixtures and him being a better fit for the Spurs’ wingback system than Royal, at 4.6m he’s surely worth a shout. I think Sessegnon is a greater threat to Perisic’s place on the left than Royal is to flying Irishman.