The majority of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers who haven’t yet played their Wildcard will be doing so ahead of Gameweek 13, at least if the results of our recent on-site poll are anything to go by.
Wildcarders only need to look so far as Gameweek 16, with unlimited transfers handed to everyone after that point.
In this four-part series, we’ll look at the key players to target over the next four Gameweeks – and even if you’re not deploying this chip, it will hopefully still be of some use.
To do this, we’ll be turning to the underlying Opta player/team stats, the Season Ticker and Rate My Team’s projected points for assistance. All of these tools can be found by subscribers in our Premium Members Area, where you can still get a full year’s membership for £2.49 a month (billed annually).
These numbers are all correct as of Wednesday afternoon, before the day’s Gameweek 12 fixtures have taken place.
SEASON TICKER
Crystal Palace sit top of our customisable Season Ticker for ‘defence’ when looking at the next four Gameweeks: all of their opponents are scoring less than one goal per game on average and sit in the bottom eight for big chances created.
Everton rise to second once their midweek clash with Newcastle United is out of the way. Again, their Gameweek 13-16 opponents are all bottom-half material for minutes per expected goal (xG) in 2022/23.
Manchester City join the above two teams in avoiding a ‘big six’ side over the coming four Gameweeks, with excellent runs for West Ham United and Arsenal only punctuated by trickier-on-paper tests in Gameweeks 14 and 15 respectively.
Chelsea’s run of matches doesn’t actually look that favourable on closer inspection, with all four of the teams they face after Wednesday sitting in the top half for minutes per xG this season – although ‘expected’ goals and ‘actual’ goals are very different beasts when it comes to Brighton and Hove Albion in particular.
UNDERLYING TEAM STATS
| Team | Mins/xGC – 2022/23 | Mins/xGC – last six matches |
|---|---|---|
| Man City | 120.9 (1st) | 107.2 (2nd) |
| West Ham | 100.1 (2nd) | 152.8 (1st) |
| Arsenal | 97.4 (3rd) | 81.4 (7th) |
| Newcastle | 93.5 (4th) | 100.9 (3rd) |
| Brighton | 93.3 (5th) | 97.2 (4th) |
| Spurs | 87.1 (6th) | 78.7 (8th) |
| Aston Villa | 80 (7th) | 87.5 (5th) |
| Wolves | 76.2 (8th) | 73.8 (9th) |
| Chelsea | 72.5 (9th) | 71.2 (11th) |
| Brentford | 71.3 (10th) | 69.8 (12th) |
| Liverpool | 71 (11th) | 71.3 (10th) |
| Southampton | 67.9 (12th) | 64.3 (15th) |
| Man Utd | 67 (13th) | 68.3 (14th) |
| Leeds | 65.3 (14th) | 62.2 (=16th) |
| Crystal Palace | 65.2 (15th) | 69.7 (13th) |
| Leicester | 61.3 (16th) | 62.2 (=16th) |
| Nottm Forest | 58.8 (17th) | 85.8 (6th) |
| Bournemouth | 58.3 (18th) | 61.4 (18th) |
| Everton | 57.3 (19th) | 59 (19th) |
| Fulham | 48.1 (20th) | 42.9 (20th) |
West Ham United really catch the eye in the above graphic, even beating perennial table-toppers Manchester City for xGC over their last six matches; let’s see how resolute they are against a buoyed Liverpool in midweek.
For a team that has looked fairly reliable to the eye and conceded on relatively few occasions (11), Everton are at the wrong end of table for xGC. Jordan Pickford‘s (£4.5m) heroics, more of which below, have been a key factor in keeping the goals conceded column down, if not the shots.
Nottingham Forest‘s recent dramatic improvement is worth pointing out but they have just had a favourable run of five games, to place their figure in the above-right column in some context.
UNDERLYING PLAYER STATS
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