The FPL Watchlist: Who are the best medium-term player picks?

While our Scout Picks deal in a one-week-only window, our Watchlist series concentrates on the (more important) medium-term outlook in Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

In this feature, we look at the stand-out FPL and Draft options over a four-to-six-week lookahead.

We try to be less ‘kneejerk’ in these articles as a result, given that we’ve identified targets for a more sustained period.

And the changes are again relatively modest in this latest update, although they now take into account the confirmed Blank and Double Gameweeks that are now on the horizon.

• READ MORE: FPL Blank/Double Gameweeks – the latest after the EFL/FA Cup ties

MORE ABOUT THE WATCHLIST

Players are selected and ranked according to factors such as form, club injuries, forthcoming fixtures, Rate My Team’s points projections and whether or not the player in question is likely to be a bargain in FPL.

Arrows before the name indicate whether a player has climbed or fallen in our reckoning since the previous update or if they are a new entry into the tables.

We typically toe the line with FPL’s definition of ‘form’ (average points accrued in matches played over the last 30 days) but with few matches actually played over that time, we’ve extended it slightly back to the Boxing Day restart.

The key for the factors you’ll see in the below tables is as follows:

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL GOALKEEPERS

It’s actually the same eight goalkeepers on the list that featured ahead of Gameweek 21, and in the same order, too.

Since our last update, however, Gameweek 25 has been confirmed as a ‘blank’ for Manchester United, Newcastle United, Brighton and Hove Albion and Brentford, so we’ve reflected the yawning chasm in the schedules of Robert Sanchez (£4.6m), Nick Pope (£5.5m) and David Raya (£4.7m) with downward arrows.

David de Gea (£4.9m) will follow suit after his impending double is out of the way.

Gameweek 28 could also be a blank for Brighton, Brentford and Man Utd, incidentally.

One shot-stopper who is guaranteed a fixture in the next two Blank Gameweeks (25 and 28) is Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.6m), who holds onto second place in our pecking order. Unbeaten by any other first-choice goalkeeper for FPL points per match (5.2) in 2022/23, he also now embarks on a favourable run of matches in which he encounters just one big-six side in the next 10 Gameweeks.

Arsenal are the only side who definitely get eight fixtures over the next seven Gameweeks (a guaranteed double and no blanks), albeit the ‘extra’ match for Aaron Ramsdale (£4.9m) and co is against Manchester City.

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL DEFENDERS

Joao Cancelo‘s (£7.1m) downfall from week-in, week-out regular to bit-part player and then exile in Bavaria has left a big void when it comes to Manchester City representation, as there simply isn’t a defender from Pep Guardiola’s side who can guarantee us starts. It’s the primary reason why Ederson (£5.4m) is top of the goalkeeper list above.

As we discussed in a Members article yesterday, the causes of Nathan Ake (£5.0m) and Rico Lewis (£3.9m) have been boosted a tad by Cancelo’s departure. As Gameweek 21 proved, however, with neither player making 60 minutes, the pair are far from rotation-proof even without the presence of their former Portuguese team-mate. Still, Ake is very much in Pep Guardiola’s good books now, and an injury to John Stones (£5.4m) could further diminish the competition for the Dutchman at the rear.

The aforementioned upcoming blanks have had a say in the above standings. We’ve ditched Ethan Pinnock (£4.4m) with Arsenal away and two potential blanks to come, while Sven Botman (£4.5m) falls a place: now doesn’t seem to the time to double up on Newcastle’s backline if you haven’t already, with Liverpool-blank-Man City to come in Gameweeks 24-26.

There are two new entries, both kept relatively low due to fitness or short-term fixtures.

Reece James (£5.7m) will be back in the Chelsea squad this weekend but Graham Potter has already warned us that he won’t be able to last 90 minutes, so we’re on a watching brief with the forward-thinking wing-back with a view to promoting him higher up the Watchlist soon. No defender registered more attacking returns than James (14) in 2021/22, despite him starting only 22 games.

We’ve got one eye on defensive cover in Blank Gameweeks 25 and 28 with our inclusion of Alex Moreno (£4.5m), with Aston Villa facing two of the division’s weakest attacks in the form of Everton and Bournemouth in those two Gameweeks. The Villans have the fifth-lowest expected goals conceded (xGC) tally since Unai Emery took charge and Moreno looks a threat, with four shots and three chances created across his two appearances so far. Tricky Gameweek 23/24 fixtures keeps him low down for now, however.

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL MIDFIELDERS

There’s more coveted FPL midfielders than there is in any other position; while we’re struggling to cobble together 10 names at the back, the above list of 15 could easily be expanded further with the likes of Mykhailo Mudryk (£7.0m) and James Maddison (£8.0m) not even making the cut. In Mudryk’s case, he could well make an appearance in the next refresh once we’re certain he’s up to speed in match fitness terms.

While a triple-up of players in the same FPL position from one club is unusual in the Watchlist, there’s no denying that Martin Odegaard (£6.9m), Gabriel Martinelli (£6.7m) and Bukayo Saka (£8.2m) are all among the most attractive midfielders over the coming six Gameweeks and beyond if viewed in isolation. The rationale of the ordering is that Odegaard and Martinelli offer the superior value over Saka, while it’s Odegaard, Martinelli, Saka in that order for non-penalty expected goal involvement (NPxGI) over the last six matches and 2022/23 overall.

Omitting Bruno Fernandes (£9.9m) would have been perverse with his impending double, while the medium-term fixtures are promising too. Favourable games against Leeds and Leicester – the two worst teams for xGC in their last six matches – immediately follow Double Gameweek 22, while Gameweek 26 opponents Liverpool have been shipping big chances and goals all season and Gameweek 27 challengers Southampton have only one clean sheet to their name in 2022/23. The caveat is the definite blank in Gameweek 25 and a possible one in Gameweek 28, not to mention that Fernandes fails to make the top 20 midfielders for xG in the current campaign.

Miguel Almiron (£5.8m) takes a tumble. We’re not reacting to the FPL points drought per se but rather his struggling underlying numbers, with the Paraguayan winger sitting 37th among midfielders for xGI in his last six matches. The blank and the fixtures either side of it are off-putting, too, although Liverpool are far from a watertight side nowadays.

THE WATCHLIST: BEST FPL FORWARDS

Eddie Nketiah (£6.7m) leapfrogs the competition into the bronze medal position in the forwards’ Watchlist. Erling Haaland (£12.2m) is the only FPL asset in any position who boasts a better xGI figure than Nketiah in the last six matches, while an upcoming double, some excellent fixtures around it and the lack of blanks furthers his cause. Competition provided by Gabriel Jesus (£7.9m) is a longer-term concern but the Brazilian is still thought to be two or three weeks or so away from a playing comeback despite him being pictured on the grass this week. Even then, he’ll take a little while to build up match sharpness after three months out and Mikel Arteta would surely have some hesitation about dropping Nketiah given his excellent recent performances.

Once again, we feel compelled to explain why Ivan Toney (£7.7m) doesn’t feature and hasn’t for a while. The threat of a possible lengthy ban was off-putting for a medium-term strand such as this (it still hasn’t materialised), while an injury before Gameweek 19 also briefly put him out of action in the New Year. Now Toney has Arsenal away and a blank in his next four matches but there’s little doubting that he can do some serious damage around it.

Wilfried Gnonto (£5.0m) rises slightly, with his impending double and a favourable Blank Gameweek 25 fixture being big draws. He’s perhaps a player that looks far better on the eye than is reflected in the underlying data but 11 shots and 16 penalty area touches in five starts is still more than decent.

Brennan Johnson (£5.6m) is a name that may bemuse many but, among forwards, the penalty-taking Welshman is an impressive third for NPxGI since the restart. Nottingham Forest are also one of just seven clubs who are guaranteed to play in Blank Gameweeks 25 and 28.