FPL Gameweek 37: Are any Chelsea players worth buying?

We’ll be ‘Scouting the Doubles’ for the teams playing twice in Gameweek 37, starting with the club that most Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers will be least interested in: Chelsea.

We’ve again been using Opta data from our Premium Members Area, where you can still ‘try before you buy’ with a free trial.

FIXTURES IN DOUBLE GAMEWEEK 37

It’s not just the middling form that is a deterrent to Chelsea players in Gameweek 37, it’s the fixtures, too.

The match at the Etihad this Sunday could be Manchester City’s title coronation, while the trip to Old Trafford next Thursday sees Chelsea face a Manchester United side that have kept clean sheets in 11 of their last 14 home league games.

Above: xGC and xG data in home matches this season

City are ranked first among all Premier League clubs for expected goals (xG) and expected goals conceded (xGC) on their own turf this season, with United in sixth and third respectively.

ATTACKING NUMBERS UNDER LAMPARD

Goalscoring problems pre-dated Frank Lampard’s appointment, so there’s no laying the blame squarely at his door.

Only three sides, Everton, Southampton and Wolverhampton Wanderers, have scored fewer goals than the Blues (36) in 2022/23.

Things haven’t improved that much since Graham Potter left, although five goals have been registered in Lampard’s two most recent fixtures. A bit of context is needed there, however, as opponents Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth are ranked 18th and 19th for goals conceded this season.

Expected goals (xG) tallies of 1.17 and 1.35 against Forest and the Cherries are more reflective of the threat Chelsea were posing in those games.

It’s been a mostly favourable run of matches for Lampard since his re-appointment but a lowly 17th placing for xG during that six-match spell tells its own story.

DEFENSIVE NUMBERS UNDER LAMPARD

The underlying numbers are marginally better at the rear, although Lampard has yet to oversee a clean sheet since his first match in charge in Gameweek 30.

Chelsea had actually kept 10 shut-outs in their first 25 matches of the campaign, so their problems have been less about goal concessions for much of 2022/23.

BEST CHELSEA PLAYERS FOR GAMEWEEK 37?

Above: Chelsea players sorted by minutes per expected goal involvement (xGI) under Frank Lampard

There aren’t many/any stand-out names popping out from the player stats tables: none of the top four names for minutes per xGI above were even in the starting XI in Gameweek 36, for example.

Noni Madueke (£5.4m) has managed to rack up 28 penalty-box touches in just three-and-a-bit appearances under Lampard, the young winger impressing on the eye in Gameweeks 34 and 35 especially.

Raheem Sterling (£9.7m) was the star of the show against Forest, meanwhile, scoring twice and recording five goal attempts.

But he hadn’t even managed a single shot in the box, let alone a big chance, under Lampard before the division’s worst travellers came to Stamford Bridge on Saturday afternoon:

Above: Raheem Sterling’s game-by-game breakdown under Frank Lampard

The fact that Chelsea’s leading chance creator of the second Lampard era is the now-injured N’Golo Kante (£4.8m), with six, is a bit of an indictment.

With the central striker spot too volatile and clean sheets in Manchester improbable, FPL (minor) royalty in Sterling probably represents the best of a bad lot for Double Gameweek 37. Even then, he’s prohibitively priced and he’s in the maverick differential envelope – a “maniacal giggle”, as The Knights Template called the logic behind his own purchase.

With team-wide rotation a strong possibility and Lampard already using 27 players in his search for the right combination of options from his squad, Sterling has at least been a regular-ish starter and his brace against Forest will have cemented his spot for a reunion with his old employers.

Above: Chelsea players sorted by starts under Frank Lampard

A name we haven’t mentioned yet is Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.6m).

By far Chelsea’s most-selected player among active FPL managers (he sits in over 50% of the top 100,000 teams), many of his owners would have been retaining his services for the upcoming double, even if save points were likelier than a clean sheet.

He was duly benched for Edouard Mendy (£4.8m) against Forest, placing Kepa’s game-time in Double Gameweek 37 in some doubt.

As we mentioned in our weekend Scout Notes, there is some residual hope for the Spaniard.

Mendy was far from convincing and was caught in no man’s land for Forest’s opening goal, while Lampard’s quote below (“give Edou a game today”) could be construed as this being a one-off event.

“We’ve got two good goalkeepers. Edou has been training well and Kepa has been playing really well. In this situation we’re in, to give Edou a game today was no problem. It’s not for me to say, ‘one level is here and one level is there’. He’s a goalkeeper we trust, so he started.” – Frank Lampard

Lampard’s pre-match press conference on Friday may provide some clues for existing owners (if we’re being optimistic), but he’s a clear ‘don’t buy’ for everyone else.