FPL Q&A: Sell Grealish or Bruno to buy Salah?

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Here, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar answers some of the week’s most-asked FPL questions and reveals his own transfer plans.

Q: Who from Jack Grealish and Bruno Fernandes should make way for Mohamed Salah?

(via @yala_leopard)

A: This is probably the main dilemma for numerous FPL managers who Wildcarded in Gameweek 26, as you likely have a midfield of five doublers already but want to get Mohamed Salah (£13.0m) ahead of Double Gameweek 34 and for the kind fixtures thereafter. Selling the Brighton midfielders isn’t viable since they are so cheap and have the additional double coming in Gameweek 36. Marcus Rashford (£7.1m) also looked sharp against Spurs so he is going nowhere. The question really comes down to Bruno Fernandes (£9.4m) or Jack Grealish (£7.3m).

Bruno’s start against Spurs came as a surprise to many, including myself. He played in the advanced role, created three chances, took four shots accumulating 0.73 xG and really should have scored when he hit the crossbar from close range. It was fine margins between a five-point haul and a 13-pointer. A start and 180 minutes over the doubles in Gameweeks 34 and 37 now seems certain, especially with Manchester United dropping points. 

Grealish has started each of Manchester City’s last 13 league games so in terms of minutes, he’s as secure as you are going to get. However, with the schedule so compressed for Man City (they have three more games before playing Real Madrid on May 9)., some rotation is to be expected. The underlying numbers have not been spectacular for Grealish over the last two matches, either, with a combined xGI of 0.23. When looking at it in isolation, Bruno does appear to be the better pick than Grealish.

That being said, you also have to consider the combinations it enables. There’s a £2.1m price difference so what does that get you? Does that let you get a Diogo Jota (£8.9m) up top or enable a move for Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) in defence? In that case, I think a case can be made to sell Bruno instead of Grealish. But if the cash for upgrades elsewhere is not required, then I think it should be Grealish making way. 

Q: Is Ederson worth a -4 for the Double Gameweek over David Raya, who has a good single Gameweek fixture?

(via @AmanTalksFPL)

A: David Raya (£4.9m) probably has two clean sheets over the next five Gameweeks (the home games against Forest and West Ham), as the fixtures against Liverpool, Spurs and Man City do not exactly scream shut-out potential. As someone who owns Kepa Arrizabalaga (£4.6m) alongside Raya, I had originally planned to rotate the two but with Chelsea looking so abysmal, the very thought of playing Kepa in any match now is completely unappealing. The thing with Raya though is even in the difficult fixtures, he tends to rack up saves and bonus points so there is not really a pressing urgency to get rid, as he should still tick along with 3-5 points.

Ederson’s (£5.4m) ceiling seems to be 6-7 points a game and City’s defensive numbers have been great for some time, they have just been allowing the odd goal to fly in after closing the match early on. Over their next seven matches, you would still expect about four clean sheets, so I think the move for a -4 does pay off over the long run. I do want to mention, though, that I only like Ederson as your second Man City pick, not the third. Keep the third City spot open for punts, as their home game against Leeds United in Gameweek 35 is the first match of the weekend and there might be some team leaks early on. It is worth a transfer to punt on a low-owned attacker even for one Gameweek with only four Gameweeks remaining at that point. It also opens up the option to perhaps go Salah to Kevin De Bruyne (£12.1m) in Gameweek 37. Don’t lock your third City pick with Ederson. 

If you have a Manchester United spot open, I also think David de Gea (£5.0m) is worth a shout. He tends to rack up saves and bonus more often than Ederson but there is a concern, of course, with the first-choice centre-back pairing of Lisandro Martinez (£4.4m) and Raphael Varane (£4.8m) likely to be out for a period.

Q: Who is the best Double Gameweek 34 striker if you can’t afford Diogo Jota – or should we turn a -4 into a -8 and just get Jota?

(via @mbison22)

A: Like City, Liverpool have a compressed schedule with their first Gameweek 34 fixture kicking off on Sunday, the midweek game against Fulham following on Wednesday and the Gameweek 35 fixture against Brentford rounding off the week next Saturday. When Liverpool have had three games in six days in the past, Jurgen Klopp has tended to change up his team and the Reds do have five players available for the front three positions: Luis Diaz (£7.8m), Cody Gakpo (£7.7m), Darwin Nunez (£8.6m), Jota and Salah. 

Jota has started each of the last six games for Liverpool and his versatility does bode well for his starting prospects. It is not impossible that he does get benched in one of the upcoming three games but even if he does, he will likely still get minutes off the bench either way. I do think he is part of Liverpool’s first-choice front three and Klopp has mentioned he wants to end the season strongly, so he is a good pick not just for Gameweeks 34 and 35 but also for the entire run-in. 

The only other Double Gameweek alternative I can see is Julian Alvarez (£6.0m), with Evan Ferguson’s (£4.6m) game-time unpredictable. The minutes are significantly less assured than Jota but with how good Man City are in attack, the ceiling is possibly higher. Is Jota going to be a five-week pick for you or just a stop-gap who you will convert to Alexander Isak (£6.9m) in Gameweek 36? If it’s the latter, then taking a -8 does not appeal and I would punt on Alvarez for two weeks instead.

My Team

We cover these topics and all the Double Gameweek teams in this week’s episode of The FPL Wire. You can check it out here: