FPL Q&A: Grealish, Newcastle defence, Salah + four-week punts

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Here, seven-time top 10k finisher Zophar answers some of the week’s most-asked FPL questions and reveals his own transfer plans.

Q: Who are the best four-week differentials with ‘boom or bust’ potential? I need to make up a 15-point gap and can’t pick players like Kaoru Mitoma, Ollie Watkins, Bruno Fernandes or Marcus Rashford, and have to take a calculated risk or two.

via (@fogonthethai)

A: With doubles scheduled for two of the remaining four Gameweeks, it is difficult to look outside the usual suspects – but there are possibly players from within these teams that can prove to be the differentials you need.

For example, Alexis Mac Allister (£5.5m) was only 20%-owned and he outscored Kaoru Mitoma (£5.6m) and Solly March (£5.3m) combined over Double Gameweek 34, so he’s worth a look. Similarly at Newcastle United, you should consider Callum Wilson (£7.0m) over Alexander Isak (£6.9m) since many have already made their bed with the Swedish international and Wilson is the most explosive, lower-owned pick. In midfield, Joelinton (£6.0m) is also worth a look and seems secure for starts.

Outside the doublers, Son Heung-min (£11.5m) seems to be benefiting from Ryan Mason’s tactical tweak which has seen Harry Kane (£11.4m) play a deeper role, with the South Korean the furthest forward.

Apart from these players, there are possible opportunities at Manchester City, with the next two games in particular likely to see some rotation with the UEFA Champions League game in mind. Someone like Phil Foden (£8.0m), Riyad Mahrez (£7.3m) or even Julian Alvarez (£6.0m) – as we saw last Gameweek – can be great differentials if you get lucky with minutes. No team has the same goal ceiling as Man City and if you buy the right ticket, you could hit the lottery.

Q: Would you stick with triple Newcastle defence or would you do the shuffle to get to Alexander Isak or Callum Wilson?

(via @FPL_Bergkamp)

A: The Newcastle United triple-up seems to be the most popular topic this week, with those sitting on double/triple defence wondering whether to lose one to accommodate one or even both of Isak and Wilson. Let’s talk about Newcastle’s defence first.

Clean sheets have been slim for Newcastle over the last 10 Gameweeks but the underlying numbers have been strong, so on paper, I think they still have excellent clean sheet potential over the remaining matches. However, the upside with all their defenders is limited, outside of Kieran Trippier (£6.1m) still posting great underlying numbers. Yes, Fabian Schar (£5.1m) does have a bit of attacking threat as well but those returns are a bit more sporadic. We only have four free transfers now for the remainder of the season so that has to be considered.

If you are on the triple-up, I do think it makes sense to lose a defender to accommodate one of Wilson or Isak, as they will likely be your captain that week. Brighton and Hove Albion’s double in Gameweek 36 isn’t great on paper and with the rotation we are now seeing with their midfielders, minutes are far from assured. If you are on double defence and want to ship one to accommodate both Wilson and Isak, I think the decision is a bit murkier.

I don’t like the idea of using two of four transfers or taking a hit when you already have a decent captaincy option and you have to consider what you could do with those free transfers in Gameweeks 37 and 38 instead. I do think Isak’s recent lack of goal threat has been exaggerated a bit; yes Wilson does appear to be more explosive on paper but the likelihood of more minutes for Isak compensates that a bit, and there is some recency bias at play here. Most of us already have stacked five-man midfields and with Erling Haaland (£12.4m) going nowhere, playing both Newcastle forwards means benching somebody decent in midfield, which seems a bit unnecessary to me. 

Q: What to do with Jack Grealish?

(via @sud__98)

A: Jack Grealish (£7.3m) started both matches in the Gameweek 34 double and was unlucky not to register more than the seven FPL points he ended with. There are some doubts about his minutes against Leeds United at the weekend, with a short turnaround of two days between Gameweek 35 and the Champions League clash with Real Madrid. That being said, he has been the most secure selection in Man City’s midfield and is still a good pick till the end of the season, keeping in mind their double in Gameweek 37. I think you can take the cameo on the chin and hold onto Grealish, as there is no pressing need to sell.

However, if you do have a path to Bruno Fernandes (£9.4m) open, I do like making that move. Man Utd dropping points against Brighton, and the gap to Liverpool being only four points, means that the Red Devils are likely going to have to fight for fourth till the final day and as an FPL asset, I think Bruno is ahead of Grealish. 

Q: Mohamed Salah or a United/City midfielder till the end of season?

(via @TudorPana)

A: Mohamed Salah’s (£13.0m) next four fixtures read Brentford (H), Leicester (a), Aston Villa (H) and Southampton (a). We already know what Liverpool are capable of at Anfield and the two away games are against two of the worst defences in the division. There is double-digit haul potential in each of these matches.

The Man City midfield has very few investible options that you can say for certain are guaranteed minutes, given the number of fixtures they have. Mahrez and Foden are not secure starters and Kevin De Bruyne’s (£12.2m) fitness will likely be managed given the recent issues. The only investible ‘xMins’ pick there is Grealish and while he is a decent choice, his ceiling is nowhere near Salah’s. So it’s definitely the Egyptian over a Man City midfielder for me, at least for now. When we get to Double Gameweek 37, this might change with a one-week swap to De Bruyne possibly appealing. The reason I say one week is because Salah has Southampton in Gameweek 38, and you will likely want him back for that one. 

The comparison with the United midfielder is trickier. If you don’t own Marcus Rashford (£7.2m) already, then I would prioritise him over Salah, without a moment’s hesitation. With Bruno Fernandes, it’s a bit closer but due to the sheer number of fixtures, several of which are favourable, I would consider Bruno over Salah, especially for Gameweek 37. 

My team

Hope you enjoyed reading, see you next week!