The Numbers Game – Swansea City

Can Pogba push on?

So I started writing this on my lunch break, and subsequently, the Matic transfer has been completed, and there has already been a hot topic asking if Matic can improve Pogba (from Berbinho’s Forehead).

Still, I’ll post this, as I’ve had a look into the stats behind it;

With the Matic transfer seemingly on its way to being completed, it has been suggested that this will release Pogba into being able to play in a more forward position; whether this be in a free role behind the striker, or in a less restricted role on the left of a midfield 3- where he played to great effect for Juventus.

During his final year for Juventus, Pogba played primarily in the left central midfield position, more often than not, alongside Sami Khedira and Claudio Marchisio in the centre of the park, and with Patrice Evra providing the width from wing back on the left.

This was a position that seemed to suit Pogba; he had the protection from Khedira and three centre backs behind him, allowing him to get forward. Indeed, in the 2015/2016 season, Pogba finished the Serie A season with 8 goals and 12 assists from 35 apps. (His 12 assists a league high).

So why was he not able to emulate this form whilst playing for Manchester United last season?

The first notable difference between United and Juventus is the formation; United played with 4 at the back on 37 occasions last year. This, alongside Mourinho’s tendency to highlight to his players the importance of defending, and tracking back, seemed to stifle Pogba’s attacking influence somewhat.

On top of this, Pogba was never able to make a particular role his own, and was played in a variety of different positions through the season;

DMC – 10 apps, 1 goal, 1 assist
MC – 16 apps, 3 goals, 3 assists
AMC – 3 apps, 1 goal, 0 assists

This evidence would suggest that last season, Pogba cut a frustrated figure, who couldn’t quite find his role within a constantly changing formation, playing for a less attack-minded coach.

However, when we delve deeper into the numbers, this does not necessarily appear to be the case at all.

In fact, if we compare Pogba’s stats to that of Dele Alli last year, we will discover that the underlying stats are very similar… Yet the end product could not be more different.

Dele 37 apps (35/2), 18 goals, 7 assists
Pogba 30 apps (29/1), 5 goals, 4 assists

Dele 94 goal attempts, 32.4 Mins Per Attempt, Shot accuracy 45.7%
Pogba 92 goal attempts, 28.3 Mins Per Attempt, Shot accuracy 34.8%

So, from this, it shows that Pogba did get forward enough to be able to make chances for himself, but was far more wasteful with his final efforts.

Dele scored 13 more goals, despite only registering 36 more touches in the opposition’s penalty area than Pogba.

Based on the minutes played, Pogba touched the ball in the penalty area every 23 minutes 30 seconds, and Dele touched the ball in the box every 20 minutes 45 seconds.

The difference between touches in the box is minimal, implying that Pogba was not as restricted as we are led to believe.

So if Pogba is getting forward as much as Alli, and is registering as many chances as Alli… Why was there so little end product from him last year?

And will Matic actually enable Pogba to have more of an influence going forward, or does Pogba’s performance purely hinge on him being able to make better use of his chances?

Was it a case of the price-tag- and related pressure- that caused his underwhelming performance last year, or is it simply that he doesn’t fit into the Mourinho style?

It’s a curious case, and one that I am looking forward to unfolding!

One thing is for certain though; this will be a big season for Pogba- one way or another! And at 8.0m, he’s a very nice price to fit into your team if he does start taking his chances!

Thanks 🙂