Dugout Discussion – Everton vs Swansea City

So did the -12 pay off?

I've never actually thought about watching a game of football, makes sense though!

Remember Ben Crabtree last year when asked how he won:

“Watched a lot of football”

TBF it was the players he already had who made up the points for him this week, the new festive players he brought in (De Gea, Silva, Bony and Richarlison) didn't produce for him and two may be issues so the moves in isolation didnt really help him or show he was right to dump Kane.

Fantastic effort though, big balls and that's why he's numero uno.

One thing he has done, he'll inspire people to go hit crazy this week, now might be a good time to take one if you planned it as loads will follow his path.

Hasn't actually paid off yet so it remains to be seen. His big score was from players he already had. It's a calculated gamble but there is plenty of time to recover if it back fires so I think it was worth having a go

Where can I find link for Jay's team?

I don't actually watch any football games. I never have the time and I am not paying for subscriptions. My rank is bad this year

Watch football. Make predictions. This bloke is really reinventing the game here 😆
Hats off to jay he is certainly #1 or 2 players of all time. Massive kudos. Seriously though there is no secret formula. No special insights. It's a simple game.

His key point seems to be (from last night and another podcast I heard) is make a plan - your plan not anybody else's. Then check the pros & cons then make your own decision.
Interesting when he challenged others last night to defend their plans. Wonder whether Andy is having 2nd thoughts this morning on his strategy.
My plan this week. Do nothing and watch lots of people do big hits trying to copy Jay. 🙂 we're going to see some big hits on this site this week.

Disagree with kdb. He was playing def mid at that time. Suddenly pep changed his tactics.

I did this same notice for Alonso he didn't deliver at all but he was playing as a winger. I bought him with 7.1 and he has not delivered a lot until last 2 GW's. He is on free kicks. Also getting headers from corners and plays as a winger with lot's of touches in the box. He is a season keeper for sure if Conte continue using this same formation.

What should we learn from someone who is consistently good at the game, watches a lot of football to form their opinion and plays no active role in the FFS community?

Avoid group think. We might not like the answer, unfortunately.

It seems like people over-simplifying his point. His big advice is not to 'watch football'. His advice is to really watch with a critical eye and scout your intended targets. Learn what gives the future FPL potential rather than being guided purely by goals, assists, CS and a couple of other stats. Alonso was a great example - a lot of managers were quick to dismiss him because he wasn't getting attacking returns. But simply scoring a goal is not the only way to be 'attacking'. Jay said he watched Alonso closely and decided his potential was too great to ignore. At the end of the day Alonso is an ordinary defender who wants to be a striker, that's how he plays, but it takes conviction to let him have blanks, and if you never watch him play you will lose that conviction quickly.

I took the tip to be to trust the eye test more than people do.

The Dump Kane for Christmas idea has more traction if there were obvious big hitter replacements. But not many big hitter strikers are that hot.

I've dumped Kane in the Sky game, but you can switch to 3-5-2 or 4-5-1 as it's not a squad game.

Who's got time or money to go watch lots of PL games! The other option is to simply look at meaningful stats ie shots on target, chances created etc

Looking behind the stats works also the opposite way. I am too lazy to go and check the stats from the beginning of the season but I put it in shortly. In first 6-7 GW ManU scored 4 goals against SWA, EVE, WHU but many of the goals were scored after 80mins in the clock. I saw those games and ManU were not that dominant what the score line told. e.g Martial, Lukaku and Pogba scored a lot of points after 80mins played. Still they were not that good. It really doesn't matter what gametime you get the points it is just if you want to bring those players in. You need to asses how good they really are.

Same with Kane. His first four goals in the league included 1 total fluke against Everton supposed to be a cross. 2 goals against WHU after WHU made total errors in midfield with the ball. Against HUD Kane really made some nice goals but before that he was not in form imo.

-Plug the leaks. By that I mean eliminating the rank killers (like DDG , Salah and Otamendi) in my case. I had a terrific start to my season and was inside the 15k by GW11. Since GW 13 things haven't worked out well even though I had a very good team and I moved on most good bandwagons fairly early because I didn't have Utd cover (after Jones got injured) and Otamendi and I was stubborn with Salah (even though I am Egyptain 🙂 ). No matter how good my differentials worked, Salah, super DDG and goal crazy Otamendi destroyed my rank. I finally got Salah in GW 13 and sold Kane this week to fund Ota and DDG in.

-Do not captain Kane even if he hauls in one game until Spurs have a great run of form. Kane flattered to deceive every now and then only to blank yet again. Salah, KDB and Hazard and much better captains.

The advice is simple yet distinct, yes watch football but do it in a certain way. I like his approach, and to some extent many of us do this already but maybe not as a structural device/tool to become better fantasy players? But as i have watched several Spurs matches, where does Kane stands in all this? He IS getting in the right positions, his stats are there, the way they play puts him in fine positions? Could there be a case of not looking at the tam as a whole perpective? While looking at one player in isolation could rob us from seeing the team as a whole, not just how they play but also in terms of confidence level and other thing?

For instance, i would much rather have Sterling than Sané even if he is a questinable finisher because when you look at how City play he is always in the mix of getting something, while Sané now for a while have been stationed more like a traditional winger and although he does get in the box and shoots sporadically it just doesnt seem to the same threat there, or to say it more direct; While Sterling plays in a position he only needs to tap the ball in or atumble it in you have a feeling Sané must create those for himself which is far more difficult and statistically fare more seldom happens.

I enjoyed this Scoutcast-)

Poor Ville Ronka. He's almost been forgotten

Jay for President.

Is he getting Kane back for the double?

too early to tell if his -12 was a good move or not. like some have said- people might be taking big hits this GW, so that makes me happy and I hope to profit from that. Just wonder if the people taking big hits are just going to copy Jay's team.....

I also liked Jonty's very simple equation of points per million. .e.g if a player costs 6M you should be happy with 5+ points, like a 10M player getting you 9+ points.

I've heard it before but its worth remembering because especially this season the erratic nature has made us lose sight of what's a bad/good return.