Sleeper – Theo Walcott

Our pre-season coverage continues with the introduction of our “Sleeper” series.

These articles aim to highlight those players who we expect to improve in performance over the season ahead, after a drop in Fantasy fortunes over the previous campaign.

Theo Walcott is very much the archetype of a “sleeper” Fantasy prospect.

Having picked up a serious knee injury in the FA Cup Third Round win against Tottenham in January 2014, Walcott was not a name on the lips of Fantasy managers as the 2014/15 campaign got underway, given that he was expected to miss the first few months of the season.

Walcott’s prospects were further dented by two summer recruits at the Emirates as both Alexis Sanchez and Danny Welbeck found their way to north London.

Sanchez arrived with a big reputation following an impressive World Cup performances and with proven pedigree at Barcelona; the Chilean was expected to line up either on the left or right flank. Welbeck came to Arsenal stating his desire to play as a striker, although he was often used out wide during his time at Old Trafford. With Walcott and Olivier Giroud ruled out with injury, Welbeck would be handed the first opportunity to make the central striking position his own.

The addition of these two quality players was certainly going to increase competition for places, lessening Walcott’s Fantasy appeal from the get-go.

Walcott was priced at 9.0 in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) and eventually made his comeback as a late substitute in the 3-0 victory against Burnley in Gameweek 10. He appeared off the bench a week later at Swansea, before picking up a groin strain on international duty that would rule him out for a further month.

Having been an unused substitute against Liverpool, QPR and West Ham at the tail end of December, Walcott played 30 minutes as a substitute against his former side Southampton, before making his first start of the season in the 2-0 win against Hull in the FA Cup Third Round. His first goal of the 2014/15 campaign came against Brighton in the Fourth Round of the FA Cup, while he was also on the scoresheet on his first Premier League start of the season against Aston Villa in Gameweek 23.

Walcott, however, would only make three more league appearances before Gameweek 34, with Arsene Wenger anxious to avoid rushing the attacker’s recovery from such a serious injury, while the form of the Sanchez, Giroud, Santi Cazorla, Aaron Ramsey and Mesut Ozil afforded the Frenchman the luxury of being able to ease Walcott back to full fitness.

Substitute appearances against Chelsea, Hull, Swansea, Manchester United and Sunderland would garner a single assist, before Walcott exploded on just his fourth league start of the season on the final day against West Brom. Walcott was handed a rare opportunity as the central striker against the Baggies, and duly bagged a hat-trick and maximum bonus, rewarding the 5,000+ FPL owners who had taken a punt on the now 8.2-priced midfielder. That performance persuaded Wenger to stick with Walcott for the FA Cup final against Villa, with the England man impressing once again, scoring the opening goal in a comprehensive 4-0 win.

THE PROSPECTS

Walcott ended the campaign with the best goal conversion rate among Arsenal attackers, netting 21.7% of his opportunities compared to Sanchez’s 13.2% and Giroud’s 20%. While those statistics may be slightly skewed, given Walcott only played 488 minutes last season, there is little doubt of his Fantasy potential should he steer clear of the treatment table – 14 goals and 13 assists over 32 appearances in 2012/13, leading to 194 FPL points, attest to that.

There has been some speculation regarding his future at Arsenal, with just a year to run on his current contract. Discussing the situation, Arsene Wenger seems convinced that Walcott’s future now lies up front for the Gunners, after Ramsey nailed down the role on the right over the final few months of the previous campaign:

“Theo’s gone through difficult moments. To lose a year of a career of a football player is massive.But he’s at the best age now, 1989 born. Being 26 to 32 as a striker is the best age as a striker and I wouldn’t like to miss that golden age. It’s not too late for him. I think his position will be as a striker. I have worked with him in both situations, as a striker and as a wide player. The quality of his runs is so fantastic with the pace he has, and he is a good finisher now. When he was younger, he rushed in front of goal but he has improved now. He can be transformed. He is naturally gifted and can play in this position. Olivier Giroud has different qualities: he can head a ball and he plays with his back to goal. Theo is a runner who is capable of going in behind.”

Given his end of season exploits, there’s every chance that Walcott will be on the radar of Fantasy managers during the summer. Expected to remain classified as a midfielder across the Fantasy games, a cost of around 9.0 in FPL seems likely for the Arsenal attacker – whilst the likes of Ramsey will be similarly priced, there’s no doubt that Sanchez will continue in the premium bracket after his 16-goal haul last time around.

His case to feature more regularly as the lone forward has been strengthened following his last two performances and although Welbeck is also in the mix, Wenger’s comments certainly suggest that – despite recent speculation linking the Gunners with a move for another striker – Walcott could finally be handed his preferred role up front for the Gunners over the season ahead.

Certainly, the switch to 4-1-4-1, with Francis Coquelin sitting in front of the back-four, has allowed Santi Cazorla and Mesut Ozil to dictate matters centrally further forward, and with Jack Wilshere and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain offering alternatives to Ramsey on the right, there’s no shortage of options for Wenger should be choose to utilise Walcott exclusively up front.

Ultimately, though, his security of starts and the ability to stay healthy will determine how we assess Walcott’s prospects for the season ahead. With Sanchez potentially set to be rested for the first couple of matches (if Chile make the latter stages of the Copa America), our attentions could well be focused elsewhere in the Gunners midfield.

Pre-season should hopefully reveal more on Wenger’s intentions, though with Giroud drawing blanks in each of the final seven Gameweeks, there’s a growing belief that Walcott could approach the summer in pole position for the striker’s role. Providing he stays fit, then, such a scenario would surely make the Arsenal man one of the most popular Fantasy picks around for the new campaign.