The Dugout Discussion – Chelsea vs Bournemouth

RP, bottomed 🙄

Last week I touched on the topic of 'effective ownership'. The original post can be found here:

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/11965699

I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the EO of players week on week, as ownership and captaincy % changes.

In my initial post, I detailed EO as being the following:

Ownership % + Captaincy %

Whilst this is true, there is a more accurate way of working out EO. This factors in the number of times a player is triple captained, but more importantly, whether they are being played or not. Of course, if a player is stuck on the bench, their points do not count. The new equation looks like this:

Ownership % + Captaincy % + Triple Captaincy % - Benched %

So, with this in mind, here is how the EO of players looks for this week:

Overall:

‣ Vardy = 68.2%
‣ Mahrez = 59.7%
‣ Lukaku = 59.3%
‣ Ozil = 54.3%
‣ Barkley = 38.5%
‣ Kane = 35.9%
‣ Kolarov = 33.1%
‣ De Bruyne = 31.2%
‣ Cech = 30.2%
‣ Smalling = 29.7%

Top 10k:

‣ Lukaku = 109.2%
‣ Ozil = 105.8%
‣ Vardy = 100.5%
‣ Mahrez = 79.5%
‣ Barkley = 67.5%
‣ De Bruyne = 61.2%
‣ Kolarov = 49.3%
‣ Ighalo = 48.5%
‣ Kane = 41.0%
‣ Cech/Smalling = 40.6%

As one would expect, no players in the overall game have an EO of more than 100%. This is due to the number of dead teams, and dare I say 'casuals'.

The top 10k is a different story. This week, Ozil, Lukaku and Vardy all have an EO of more than 100%. This means that for every point they score this week, you lose out, unless you captained them. Of course, if your captain outscores them you are better off, but it is interesting to note that you can still lose ground for every point a player scores, even if you own them.

This is currently only the case for those lucky enough to occupy a place within the top 10k, somewhere we all aim to be come the end of the season.

What I found interesting was the fact that 3 players have an EO of over 100% this week. If they were to all score hauls (Ozil and Vardy both got an assist, but not a haul), and you were to captain someone who blanked, you could well see a significant drop in rank, despite owning them.

What I also found interesting is an obvious template emerging. There are 4 players in each position (defenders, midfielders and forwards) with significant EOs, with the rest reasonably lower.

These players are:

GK: Cech
Defenders: Kolarov, Smalling, Alderweireld, Bellerin
Midfielders: Ozil, Mahrez, Barkley, De Bruyne
Forwards: Vardy, Lukaku, Ighalo, Kane

Whilst it is tempting to stray from the crowd, picking punts with low ownerships, it could be costly.

Whilst some of the players have EOs of greater than 100 (from that list), others do not. This means you still gain a significant advantage for every point they score. Many are against the 'template' team, or highly owned players, but they offer the security of rarely (or never) having a detrimental week, with lots of steady rises.