The Weekend Team News

Might it even have a negative correlation?

It's fairly similar to possession really - the LVG philosophy that if you have the lion's share of possession then are dominating the game, and that you are unlucky if the opposition use their more limited possession to break more quickly, create more chances and score more goals.

Leicester are a very good team considering their talent but a lot has to fall in their way (again) for them to win the title. Arsenal/Man City still the favourites for me

I do agree with that, i am just talking about this season nothing else. Who knows what would have happened next season if they all stayed together.
For example, when i play futsal there are players who have their shots blocked way less than others. Why? Because they are better at finding space too shoot and a lot of different things come into it.
Does futsal = outdoor? Absolutely not by any means, but trying to make a point.

But even on this season, the number of shots blocked has little to do with the players shooting. That's just a very fluctuating stat, there is no such factor from which you could predict it. E.g. the player. Same players have their shots blocked rates fluctuate all the time. Or the style of play: no affect. It's just a whole lot of luck.

The shot blocking itself is so hazardous move: it can be properly blocked, it can deflect the ball off the field, it can deflect it on target leaving GK helpless, it can create a new better chance for the opponent, etc. Or it can miss the ball altogether. So when it changes the direction from the defender's foot and goes in, it's not a blocked shot in stats, it's a shot on target and a goal. And it's not because of how well the shooter has played, but because he got "lucky" in the sense that the random factor of success of shot blocking just went to his advantage with all the unpredictable factors falling in his favour that time.

I absolutely agree with you. There is a lot of things that arent considered in things like this. But, thats just its counted. Cant change it even if you wanted too. I wasnt referring to the direction of blocked shots or whatever. Some players just find a way for their shot not to get blocked. Shooting through your legs, above your knee etc. Obviously this is used a lot in futsal, but your point is still valid.

Surely the low number of blocked shots must be related to the speed with which they break.

Teams that rely on slow progress through safe possession are more likely to find more of their shots in crowded penalty areas being blocked.

Peter Schmeichel used to regard a deflected shot as being a serious mistake by the defender.

Expected goals don't predict future so I don't get your point?

Why then bother with saying xG is a merit thing to go on by?

To see if their performances are sustainable and to see which teams are in fact playing good and not getting results and vice versa

I really do not think you are making much sense now, or im just too daft to understand.

Basically, xG show if someone is playing good? I think not.
xG shows if something is sustainable? How? I also think not.
Maybe i am just reading too much into this, but in any case lets agree to disagree on the validity of xG 🙂

It would, Prophet, it would. In the long run, you would win by always betting on the xG, except that...

...the bookies know about these stats and use them, and as the bookie always gets his slice of the odds, in the end you need to do something more clever to win.

Agree 100% with this

if all other things were equal, aka bookies odds are all 2 do you think it would be profitable? Genuine question

In that case, of course it would. You would become rich very fast.

@prophet: btw, see my reply to you about shot accuracy, explaining what exactly is lucky about Leicester's shooting:

http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2016/02/05/the-weekend-team-news-190/?hc_page=9#hc_comment_12611498

It's very well established fact that the rate of shots getting blocked is unpredictably fluctuating.

Just replied there

Yeah that's seems pretty good reasoning behind it and as a defender its always harder to make a clean tackle when the opposition is moving at speed.