Analysing The Dream Teams

This article takes a look at the end of year ‘dream teams’ of the best 11 players in each of the last 15 seasons for clues on the best assets to invest in and key strategies  to adopt this time around.

For this I’ve used data from 2002/03 to 2013/14  collected by FPL Discovery, as well as my own research for the last three seasons.

Here are the key points of interest I’ve learned from this research:

Formation

Nine out of 15 of the previous season dream teams form a 3-4-3 formation, while 3-5-2 is represented four times, and 4-3-3 and 4-5-1 one each. This suggests that 3-4-3 is historically a winning formation within the game.

Ceiling

Finding a “definite ceiling”  of a maximum score for a player is near impossible, but we can to some degree discuss relative ceilings, which look something like this for each position:

Goalkeepers: 12-15 points, which would entail a buckload of saves, a clean sheet, bonus returns and possibly a penalty save as well.

Defenders: 15 points, from a clean sheet, bonus and a goal.

Midfielders and Forwards: 15-20 points, though a combination of multiple goals, assists and bonus returns.

Goalkeepers Ceiling

Looking at the last 15 seasons the highest tally from a goalie in the dream team is Brad Friedel, who scored 187 points in 2002/3. The lowest is Burnley’s Tom Heaton, whose 2016/17 finish of 149 points was enough to make the dream team.

The average is 167 points for a goalkeeper, which equates to 4.4 points per match should they play all 38 games. Among this season’s stoppers three regular starters are achieving or bettering this ppm threshold: Manchester United’s David De Gea (5.2), Nick Pope of Burnley (4.8) and Manchester City’s Ederson (4.4). Given Pope is soon to face competition from a returning Tom Heaton De Gea looks set to be this season’s Dream Team stopper.

Defenders ceiling

The highest tally from a defender is 196pts, achieved by Joleon Lescott in 2007/08 and John Terry in 2004/05. The lowest is 138pts, which William Gallas achieved in 2002/03. 

The average is 165pts, which equates to 4.3 points per match should they play all 38 games. Among this season’s defenders, 23 are achieving or bettering this ppm figure. But with many of this group not being regular starters, such as United’s Luke Shaw, or succumbing to long term injury, such as City’s Benjamin Mendy, the pool is reduced. Notable regular starting defenders this season with ‘dream team’ form include Chelsea duo Marcos Alonso and Cesar Azpilicueta, Manchester United’s Antonio Valencia and Phil Jones and Arsenal’s Shkodran Mustafa and Sead Kolasinac (although the latter’s starts have reduced recently).

Midfielders ceiling

The highest total from a midfielder in previous dreamteams is 284pt, hit by FPL legend Frank Lampard in 2009/10. The lowest is 159, achieved by Damien Duff, Steweat Downing and Paul Scholes in 2004/05.

The average is 200pts, which equates to 5.2 points per match should they play all 38 games. This season 12 players are achieving or beating this ppm threshold. All bar Newcastle’s Henri Saivet are regular starters who have been largely injury free, which indicates the average could be high among midfielders in the 2017/18 dream team. This also indicates that a five man midfield formation could trump the traditional 3-4-3 this year.

Barring injury Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah‘s 8 ppm and Manchester City’s Raheem Sterling‘s 7.3 ppm make them shoo-ins for this season’s dream team. Should they also remain injury free United’s Paul Pogba (6.3 ppm) and City’s Kevin De Bruyne (6.2) could also make the cut.

Forwards ceiling

The highest total from a striker in previous dreamteams is 295pts, hit by Luis Suarez in 2013/14, and the lowest is 167, achieved by Louis Saha in 2003/04).

The average is 205 points, which equates to 5.4 points per match should they play all 38 games. Among this season’s striker crop just two beat or match this ppm threshold, Sergio Aguero (6.5) and Harry Kane (6.4). This further indicates that this season’s dream team is unlikely to see a three man frontline.

Pricing and Three Player Rule

When looking through the dreamteams of the last three seasons one thing is pretty clear: its called ‘dream team’ for a reason. It’s almost always impossible to get a team consisting of these players, because the price would be too steep. In addition, they often contain more than three players from the same club.

For example, in 2016/17 the Dream Team was worth 91m and included four Chelsea players and in 2014/15 it was worth a hefty 88m.

The 2015/16 season when Leicester’s cut price stars won the league, the dream team was worth 76m and was a rare example of an affordable elite side, although still not realistic to own as it included four Arsenal players.

Therefore the dream team and dream attainable team are two different beasts.

Gaps and Value 

The gaps between the “out of this world performers”, such as Suarez  or Lampard and the dream team low and average scorers also shows how  defenders and goalies are more valuable pound for pound than midfielders and attackers. It also leads me to question why high performing attackers’ prices increase by quite so much at the start of a new season.

As an example I have compared two Spurs players, keeper Hugo Lloris and striker Kane. The French stopper has produced ppm scores of between 3.55 and 3.9 for the last five seasons and has had a starting price of 5.5m a year, which equates to 0.7 points per million during his time in England. Meanwhile, Kane saw a huge price bump this year to 12.5m but is still not offering the same value as Lloris, despite excelling with ppm tallies of 6.6, 5.5 and 8.0 over the last three seasons. But in terms of price per million he would have to be getting 8.75 ppm this season to provide the same value. In essence he would need to put in a record breaking performance and beat Suarez’s 295 ceiling this year to be considered worthy of his price tag. Obviously, it is also worth mentioning that Kane’s value is increased for Fantasy managers due to the captaincy.

Caveat:  When analysing dream teams we need to be aware of its limitations regarding formation. The allowed formations of the game allow the dreamteam to end end up with a minimum of three defenders, a minimum of two midfielders and 1 striker. This means that defences “by design” will carry more “deadwood”, bringing the average down. A perfect example of this is 2008/09 when the formation was 4-5-1 – meaning only one striker (Nicholas Anelka) managed to outscore Bosingwa’s 156pts. And also in 2004/05 when Henry and Johnson were the only strikers able to outscore Duff, Downing and Scholes tally of 159pts.