FPL Market Analysis

FPL Market Analysis

Being able to read the FPL player market is a vital part of playing the game and it is important that managers have as good an understanding of it as possible in order to achieve the best possible final ranking. Knowing how the market works will allow you to keep as much of your starting 100M budget intact as possible, and we all know how frustrating it is in the latter stages of the season when we find ourselves 0.1M short of a player we desperately want to add to our squad. Therefore in this article I will analyse the general trends of market movement over the past few seasons before going into detail looking at how players in certain price points tend to be affected. Here is a link to an article summarising how we believe price changes in the game work that will be useful to look at prior to reading this, if you are not already aware of how they work: https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2015/08/12/fantasy-premier-league-transfer-market-guide/

General Trends

There is a very definite trend that has emerged over the past few years and it shows that the total value of the FPL market decreases throughout the season as shown by this table:

We can see that there is a significant loss in market value over the course of a season and while it appears as though this net loss is decreasing this can be partly put down to the fact that the total players has also decreased over the past 3 seasons. What is perhaps most striking is that over 65% of players experienced a decrease in price in each of the three seasons whereas a maximum of 8% finished the season at a price above their start price. This clearly shows us that the days of using a wildcard to gain squad value are very much over and what we instead face is a season long battle to try to maintain squad value in order to maximise the quality of players we can afford for our squad.

Why are the Opening Gameweeks so Crucial?

It is vital to pick the best squad that you can at the start of an FPL season not only in terms of points scoring but also in terms of maintaining squad value for later in the season. This is because the market is extremely volatile to begin with as managers jump on form players and get rid of gambles resulting in 30% of all price changes occurring during the first 6 gameweeks of the season. Coming off the back of a World Cup summer this volatility could be even more extreme as managers drop short term options for premium players that have been rested for the opening matches. In the upcoming analysis I will look at how players in different positions at certain price points tend to change in price. It is worth noting that all of the data is taken from across a full season but due to the amount of activity that occurs in the opening weeks it is most certainly valid and should be considered when picking a starting squad if you want to maintain as much value as possible.

Goalkeepers

All data is taken from across the previous 3 FPL seasons combined.

While the sample of premium 5.5M+ goalkeepers is small, it is evident that they tend to maintain their price much better than other starting goalkeepers who would mainly be found at either 4.5M or 5M. The 4M goalkeepers, who are generally 2nd and 3rd choices for their respective clubs, tend to have little price movement with over 70% maintaining their start price through the season. This means that the conclusion to be made from a value perspective is that by far the safest option is to pick a “set and forget” premium goalkeeper paired with a 4M bench player. The other popular strategy is to rotate two cheaper goalkeepers who appear to have favourable opening fixtures but this is risky as a slow start for either or both of your keepers could see early price drops as managers move to replace them in favour of goalkeepers from teams who have racked up early clean sheets.
In the past two seasons the two Burnley goalkeepers, Heaton and Pope have both shown that profitable options can emerge from the 4.5M bracket both experiencing a price rise of 0.5M+ in the seasons when they were first choice. This is an example of where a rotating pair including one of these two was a good option, but it is still a gamble as it is unlikely many managers will have started with these players and committing early transfers on goalkeepers in order to follow market movement is not ideal.

Defenders

Again as you would expect the premium defensive options show the most price stability with a smaller percentage of decreases than all other prices except 4M and more increases than all other brackets, although they are quite closely matched by players in the 5.5M range. Therefore defenders at top clubs priced at 5.5M such as Eric Bailly at Manchester United should be considered if they emerge as regular starters. Defenders at 5M and 4.5M are not good at holding value although it is worth noting that a smaller percentage of 4.5M defenders decrease and only 1% less increase. Most clubs outside of the top 6 will have starting options at 4.5M so it is perhaps advisable to pick one of these if you want a defender from a certain club. This way you save 0.5M to invest elsewhere and also the player is slightly more likely to hold his value. As with the goalkeepers, nearly 70% of 4M options retain their value as most do not get much playing time. This is why there is great excitement over the potential of Aaron Wan-Bissaka starting for Crystal Palace as a 4M bench option who is getting game time is an invaluable bonus for FPL managers as he would offer potential points and also price stability.

Midfielders

The most expensive midfielders show the best value retention however there are some interesting examples within this bracket that are worth looking at in more detail. In the 16/17 season Dele Alli and Alexis Sanchez finished as the top 2 players in the game scoring 225 and 264 point respectively and both ending the season with an ownership of around 30%. I do not have the data for what their ownership levels were at the start of the next season but it is fair to assume they will have been reasonably high. Both players failed to reach the same heights in 17/18 with Alli scoring 175 points and Sanchez, whose season was disrupted by his transfer to Manchester United, scoring 152 points so still reasonably good seasons for each. However they ended the season as the biggest fallers in price among premium midfielders Alli losing 0.5M in value and Sanchez 0.6M after being the biggest price gainers in 16/17. This is perhaps something to be wary of when picking Salah in your starting team, although his probable ownership of over 50% should prevent a rapid decrease in price.

All of the other price brackets show the expected pattern and further breaking down the cheapest bracket to include only 4.5M players shows that over 40% of them hold their value. This again highlights the importance of picking these budget players alongside premium options when building your midfield for the best chance of maintaining squad value.

Forwards

The premium forwards again show the expected result but the bracket I want to particularly focus on here is the middle one. At time of writing Wilfried Zaha and Marko Arnautovic both priced at 7M sit in over 25% of teams. They both performed extremely well last season and hence many managers are backing them to repeat that again this season. However the data about forwards in this price bracket shows that they usually turn out to be gambles that don’t pay off and of players that decrease in price they lose an average of 0.4M in value each. Examples from previous seasons include Gabbiadini who ended 17/18 down 0.8M from his start price and Ighalo who decreased by 0.7M in 16/17 following his great year in 15/16.

Beware the Promoted Clubs

Many managers often take a punt on players from the three clubs promoted from the championship especially ones who performed well in helping their club to promotion. This is shown this year by Ryan Sessegnon, Ruben Neves and Diogo Jota who are all currently among the top 20 selected midfielders in the game. In 17/18 Matt Ritchie and Anthony Knockaert came up with big expectations but both ended the season more than 0.5M below their start price. Dwight Gayle, Tom Ince and Mohamed Diame were also significant losers. Looking back to the promoted clubs in 16/17, Stuart Downing, Andre Gray and Jordan Rhodes all fell significantly. Therefore I would urge managers to maybe consider more established and perhaps less selected midfield talent rather than taking gambles on newcomers.

What does all this mean?

As with most things in FPL, analysing the numbers in this area put the premium players on top but we cannot select a squad entirely consisting of them so what does it suggest in terms of the best squad balance for maintaining value. As a rough idea I would suggest avoiding mid-priced options as much as possible in both midfield and attack in favour of fitting in premium players alongside useful budget options that you expect to get game time.

Finally it is important to keep the market and its fluctuations in mind at all times especially at the start of the season. By keeping an eye on transfers in and out you may be able to avoid losing squad value by transferring players at the right time. It is important to bear this in mind if starting the season with a player who you expect to get a run of games due to one of his teammates returning late from the World Cup. By keeping an eye on his ownership and transfers you can sell him at the right time and bring in your desired replacement avoiding the situation where you find yourself 0.1M short of the player you planned to bring in. In terms of using your wildcard this data shows that if you have made 3 or 4 picks who have got off to a slow start it is certainly best to use an early wildcard in order to avoid significant losses that could have a negative effect on your whole season.