Tips

Top FPL tips and advice from FFScout Hall of Fame number three Fábio Borges

Fábio Borges has emerged as one of the top Fantasy Premier League managers in recent years.

Currently third in both our Career Hall of Fame and Live Hall of Fame, Fábio’s rise has been meteoric – he only started playing FPL in 2014/15 – and his season history makes for enviable reading:



Not someone who actively courts the limelight – he turned down Joe’s invitation to appear in his Meet the Manager series – Fábio kindly agreed to answer a few of our questions.

Here he is in his own words:

I’m Portuguese, 39 years old and I live in Lisbon.

I’ve followed the Premier League since I was a kid. I remember Matthew Le Tissier was my favourite player back then, he used to score amazing goals on a regular basis. I think the Premier League’s popularity grew a lot in Portugal after Jose Mourinho joined Chelsea but it was always the most followed foreign league, of course.

I always enjoyed football, statistics and strategy games so FPL looked like the perfect fit for me. Actually, I played Fantasy NBA and Fantasy UCL even before I joined FPL in 2014/15.

I was really bad at the beginning, I remember I had Jason Puncheon and Adam Johnson in my first XI and a very expensive bench. The turning point was when I captained Charlie Austin for a hat-trick. I would never do it nowadays but I loved that feeling and I started to put a lot more thought and analysis into my decisions from then on.

I mostly enjoy the decision-making process in FPL and everything it involves. I spend a lot more time than I should looking into stats, team news and players’ history but it’s great when it pays off!

Time well spent most would agree.

Fábio’s success coupled with his desire to keep himself to himself has helped cultivate an air of mystery around the Le Tissier-loving Portuguese.

I’m not active at all on social media and I’m only in two FPL-related Facebook groups, which is more than enough for me since I like to make decisions by myself mostly. That’s most of the fun for me.

But I’ve made FPL friends in those groups – my “real-life” friends don’t care about FPL at all!

Basically, I only discuss strategy with a handful of friends and I’d like to send a shout out to Alberto and Sukhraj, who I’ve known for several years. They help me a lot every week when I’m not sure about what to do.

 

Like Meet the Manager guest, former Hall of Fame number one, and arguably the most exceptional FPL manager, Kenneth Tang, Fábio has a poker background.

I played poker professionally for six years and now I work for a sports betting website.

My poker background helps me a lot with FPL because there are several similarities. In both games we have to make the best possible decision with the information we have available at the time – and it’s important to remain calm when things don’t go our way.

Just because someone blanked twice in a row, it doesn’t necessarily mean that he is suddenly a bad pick and the same applies to poker – just because you lost one hand, it doesn’t mean that you played it poorly.

I think that being able to distance myself from the short-term results is one of my biggest strengths in FPL and poker played a huge part in that.

Fábio’s enjoying another excellent season, sitting at 4,206th in the overall standings ahead of the Gameweek 36+ deadline.

The FPL Mourinho has taken just four hits all season and has made an impressive 281 points in immediate transfers. 

He’s also been incredibly good at picking his captain. The former poker professional has suffered a mere nine blanks and gained 540 armband points, 24.58 per cent of his total score.

(Stats courtesy of FPL Statistico).

Back when I handed Charlie Austin the armband it was a wild punt based purely on gut feeling, which was a mistake I made a lot in my first season. It worked that time but I quickly realised that an analytical approach is far superior than following gut feelings or the so-called eye test, which are very prone to all sorts of bias.

Nowadays I only captain the best possible options from a stats perspective and I can’t even remember the last time I captained someone from a bottom half team like Charlie Austin. It’s fun when it works but it won’t pay off in the long run and your overall rank will suffer if you make many sub-par decisions like that.

I’m definitely a stats-oriented manager, so what makes me decide to buy someone is basically a mixture of long-term stats (xG especially), fixtures and how reliable that player has been in the past.

If a player seems to be in form I see it only as a bonus, but I don’t put much weight into it because it’s impossible to know how long it will last.

 

 1

As for tactical preferences, Fábio doesn’t pin his colours to one mast and tends to go with the flow.

He is a big advocate of that most Marmite of underlying stats, however: expected goals.

I remember I started with 5-3-2 three seasons ago because I had a lot more confidence in the £6.0m defenders than I had on the £6.0m mids and forwards. I also try to have as little money as possible in the bank (ITB) but I don’t mind deviating from that strategy when the schedule is as crazy as it is now. That’s one of the main reasons why I have Dominic Calvert-Lewin as my first sub.

Sometimes I go for cheap defensive rotations, sometimes I go with heavy hitters only. It always depends on the available options at each time, and fixtures play a huge part when I’m picking defenders.

In the beginning, I used to look into all kinds of stats to try to find useful patterns but I soon realised that, in isolation, most of them did not correlate well enough with future FPL points.

Then, four seasons ago, I found out about xG. And since then it’s the only stat I use (along with xA) when making FPL decisions. Of course, it is not perfect but if the model is reliable – and you know how to interpret it – I believe it is, by far, the most useful stat for FPL.

I make my own xG tables which I try to update as often as possible. I put a lot of work into it and I try to adjust players’ xG numbers by using their career xG Delta (when the sample is big enough).

There are players who are consistent xG overperformers and others that underperform the model for long periods of time. For example, Kevin De Bruyne overperforms the model by 35% while Jesus underperforms it by around 25%.

I think it’s important to use xG Delta because you can easily be fooled by some great xG numbers from a particular player who is a consistent underperformer/bad finisher. And vice versa.

Another tool that I use a lot is Mikkel’s algorithm on Patreon. I often use it to compare with my own xG tables and when a player looks good on both models, it usually means he is a good transfer target.

CHECK OUT PLAYER AND TEAM EXPECTED GOAL DATA IN OUR MEMBERS AREA

Former FPL winner and Pro Pundit Simon March, another of Joe’s Meet the Manager guests, often writes about the psychological aspect to FPL.

A graduate in behavioural economics, Simon has described the mental obstacles managers can face when making decisions, such as confirmation bias or the “What-the-Heck effect” (the idea that we are more likely to take risks following a loss).

I think it is almost impossible to avoid confirmation bias completely but it’s always in the back of my mind. And I always try to keep an open mind when assessing my options. Since I only use a couple of different stats/sources to make my decisions, it’s harder to fall into any type of bias.

I never make emotional transfers or decisions, that’s very easy for me to manage.

My background as a poker player is extremely useful when things go wrong because one of the most important skills in poker is the ability to control your emotions.

And in poker tournaments, it’s even harder to do it than in FPL because you have to make decisions immediately after a bad beat, while in FPL you can just turn off the computer and decide tomorrow with a fresh mind.

Price rises can often push a manager into making an early transfer decision, especially if that £0.1m increase would make a player unaffordable.

Indeed, missing out on the best possible deal can affect our perception of value, argues Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert.

What should FPL managers do with their free transfers?

But Fábio’s hand is never forced.

Price rises don’t affect me either, because I don’t follow price changes at all and I only decide if a player is good value in the moment I’m making that decision.

For example, if I didn’t have Bruno Fernandes in my team and his price increased to £10.0m overnight, I would still buy him because I think he would still be better value than the alternatives in that price range and I wouldn’t care if he was £8.0m before.

My squad value is very low so I couldn’t afford De Bruyne and Mohamed Salah. But I think the points I gain during the season by waiting for pressers/info far outweigh the points I lose for having a lower TV by the end of the season.

I think Liverpool will rotate a lot less than City in general. City are still in the Champions League and FA Cup and that’s one of the reasons why I only have De Bruyne in my team.

Pep roulette is a bit too unpredictable right now and I prefer to focus on players with higher expected minutes per match than most of City players.

Liverpool’s season, on the other hand, is already over so there’s no need to rest players that are naturally fit like Salah and Sadio Mané. I would be surprised if they miss more than one match going forward but who knows…

Pro Pundit Zophar has written about rest periods recently, while Pro Pundit LateRiser has investigated its impact on teams. But does it affect Fabio’s thinking?

Yes, I think it’s very important to look into rest periods, especially in this crazy stage of the season. In fact, that was the deal breaker for me between Anthony Martial and Riyad Mahrez in Gameweek 33+.

Looking ahead, I’m fairly happy with my team right now even if I made a couple of bad decisions on my Wildcard (Ben Foster over Pope/Martínez and Dominic Calvert-Lewin over Virgil van Dijk come to mind).

Reflecting on that decision to favour Foster over Pope or Martínez on his Gameweek 31+ Wildcard, Fábio explained:

In hindsight, it was a big mistake for sure but I did base my decision on a couple of factors that, to me, made sense at the time:

  • The fixtures were better for Foster and Watford were fighting for survival
  • I assumed Burnley might be on the beach already and never thought Arsenal would be able to keep three clean sheets in a row
  • There were reported issues of unease at Burnley when I Wildcarded

However, I did ignore one big factor which is defensive personnel and team mentality.

Watford’s back four is just not good enough and Burnley is a well-drilled defensive machine led by a very demanding manager.

So, I think I definitely should have gone with Pope but I was also hit hard by variance in this particular decision, with Pope getting 19 more points than Foster in just five Gameweeks.

Recent transfer moves have had mixed success for the Lisbon resident.

Selling Salah for De Bruyne didn’t work out in Gameweek 34+, with the Egyptian going on to record a season-high 18 points away to Brighton while the Belgian provided a solitary assist in a 5-0 win over Newcastle.

But taking a rare hit to bring in Michail Antonio in Gameweek 35+ certainly did – the Hammers talisman putting four goals past a hapless Norwich. An enabling transfer of Trent Alexander-Arnold to Andy Robertson helped generate funds.

Below he explains his thinking behind those moves:

Honestly, I think selling Salah was another poor decision from me… I’m a big Salah fan and I usually trust him regardless of how bad he looked in the previous match. But I thought that KDB could wreak havoc vs Newcastle, and so I tried to protect my rank a little bit and save some money at the same time.

Of course, Mo Salah didn’t like my lack of faith and immediately punished me with a mega haul!

My main reason for taking a hit in Gameweek 35+ was the fact that I was 90% sure TAA was going to be benched vs Burnley, plus I had two injured players and Guendouzi on my bench.

To me, Klopp’s words about Neco Williams were almost a guarantee that he would give him a chance at playing in his natural position – and the Burnley match seemed perfect for that.

At the same time, I didn’t want to play Calvert-Lewin vs Wolves and I noticed that Antonio was delivering elite xG numbers for quite some time now, so I really wanted him in my team.

So, I thought that Robbo’s extra match over TAA, together with Antonio in my XI and DCL as my first sub going forward was enough reason for taking a hit, even this late in the season.

Of course, even in my wildest dreams I couldn’t predict how well it would pay off, variance was clearly on my side on this move but I’ll take it!

What’s interesting to me is that if I didn’t make the mistake of getting KDB for Salah, I wouldn’t have had the money to buy Antonio. Goes to show that transfers shouldn’t be judged by their immediate result, regardless of how good/bad it was!

Blank for captain favourite Jiménez opens door for top 10k movement

Ahead of Gameweek 36+ he decided to save a transfer, despite the clamour for City players:

I was pretty happy with my team pre-Gameweek 36+ so it was kind of an easy decision saving it and having the luxury of making two moves in Gameweek 37+ before I use my Free Hit chip in Gameweek 38+.

I did consider Raul Jiménez to Danny Ings but it seemed a bit sideways to me, especially considering how tight Southampton’s schedule is in the next few Gameweeks. I also like Jiménez’s fixtures and consistency with 90 minutes guaranteed almost every time, so I decided to save my FT and trust Bruno with the captaincy for the second Gameweek in a row!

Finally, over the lockdown period, Fábio became the first-ever Virtual FPL champion! What did he make of the game and his experience of playing it?

It was a blast, it definitely made my quarantine a lot more fun and I would like to thank Ragabolly for organising it. I thought the mechanics were pretty similar to FPL and the fact that it was a photo finish decision in the last Gameweek with one of my best friends made it even more special!


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TopMarx Fan of Fantasy Football and Monty Python. "Archimedes out to Socrates, Socrates back to Archimedes, Archimedes out to Heraclitus, he beats Hegel. Heraclitus a little flick, here he comes on the far post, Socrates is there, Socrates heads it in! Socrates has scored! The Greeks are going mad, the Greeks are going mad! Socrates scores, got a beautiful cross from Archimedes. The Germans are disputing it. Hegel is arguing that the reality is merely an a priori adjunct of non-naturalistic ethics, Kant via the categorical imperative is holding that ontologically it exists only in the imagination, and Marx is claiming it was offside.”

1,218 Comments Post a Comment
  1. seewhyaxe
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    some news that Greenwood might be injured.

    if it's true + Aurier not playing, my bb is in tatters..

    https://www.manutd.com/en/news/detail/exclusive-injury-update-on-mason-greenwood-before-crystal-palace-v-man-utd?

    1. Lucy2019
      2 months, 9 days ago

      SEEWHYAXE Stunned.

    2. Vazza
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Oh no!! And there have already been Rashford to Greenwood transfers. All the best mate and thanks for sharing the news.

    3. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Are we sur Aurier is not playing?

      1. seewhyaxe
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Not sure, but I have them both on bench with bb activated 🙁

    4. TLF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      I also have BB active with Greenwood, don't worry about it, one of those things. I'll just pretend Greenwood played, failed to score & got a yellow card then I'm only 1 point down 🙂

  2. sunzip14
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Captained Kane, Benched KDB, Sold Mahrez>Foden= Make or Break?

    1. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Brave!!

  3. linkafu
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Ederson Cancelo Otamendi Stones Zinchenko Rodri Gundogan Dilva KDB Sterling Foden

    Hope it will be that line up tonight! Pep pleasee

    1. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      No jesus so hope not

    2. Lucy2019
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Agreed, everyone hopes there players are included.

    3. Tempestic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Whos on the wing? KDB?
      I dont see it tbh.
      Foden and Sterling start I reckon with Mahrez/Jesus/Bernardo although I can see Bernardo being used in the midfield instead alongside Gundogan/Fernandinho and Dilva.

      If I had to guess my predicted lineup would be:
      Same back 5
      Fernandinho/Gundo Dilva Bernardo
      Mahrez Sterling Foden

      1. linkafu
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 9 days ago

        KDB is chasing Henry assits record so I can see that

        1. Tempestic
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 9 days ago

          Has KDB ever played on the wing?
          If KDB was to play it'd be for Bernardo in my lineup with maybe Bernardo on the wing instead of Mahrez

          1. linkafu
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 9 days ago

            Yes this season

            1. Tempestic
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 9 days ago

              fair enough, we'll see i guess

    4. Fit_to_drop
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Dilva has played most/all of the FA cup games. With a semi in a few days time, if he keeps that sequence going, he could miss tonight's game. But one of him/KDB has to feature so lets see.

    5. CONNERS
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Need a Sterling hat trick tonight to save my season. Plus no-one above me in my ML has him.

  4. GloryManUnited
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    This is a very good article for newer players like myself. I will definitely be paying for a membership next term.

    Cheers and thank you.

    1. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Second FPL season, current OR rank : 94k

      Can I get into top 50k in 3 GW?

      1. linkafu
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Sorry failed

      2. Jack Burton
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        yeah why not mate good luck

      3. GloryManUnited
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        I’d say so, yes. Technically my second season as well. I played for the first two weeks two years ago. My rank isn’t even close to as good as yours though!

  5. Bubz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Interesting that another top FPL manager has a poker background. I have played poker since I was 17 years old, at times professionally. There are definitely some crossovers in the strategy and decison making processes

    1. Ajax Hamsterdam
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Do you wear sun glasses when you play fantasy league though ?

      1. Bubz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        😆

        Yes, to hide me tears

        1. Hot Toddy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 9 days ago

          Hahaha

        2. Gooner Kebab
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 9 days ago

          LOL

      2. THFC4LIFE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Haha

    2. Do I Not Like Orange
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      I've decided to take up poker this summer after a mate recommended it for that reason. Are there any resources you recommend? Am currently studying Daniel Negreanu's masterclass & the MIT free poker theory course. Also about to download Poker Tracker 4.

      1. Brosstan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Run It Once videos on YouTube. Lots of good free stuff for a beginner. Also a guy named Steffen Sontheimer has very good cash game videos for free, hes elite.

        1. Bubz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 9 days ago

          Yeah Run It Once is good. I’ve learned loads of Phil Galfond over the years

        2. Hot Toddy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 9 days ago

          Stefan is a rather disgusting player isnt he? Class.

      2. Bubz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        There’s loads of good free info on youtube. Doug Polk makes some very good strategy and hand analysis videos. Lex Veldhuis does some great poker streams, he’s an online tournament pro. Fedor Holz has a good course you can pay for but think it’s quite expensive. It’s difficult to recommend stuff for beginners as I was a beginner in a time where poker was played very differently, so what I used back then has little relevance now

        1. Bubz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 9 days ago

          Theres no substitute for experience and just playing the game though, just start small

      3. Hot Toddy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Start with most basic information available. Watch some streamers perhaps. Upswing Lab is very good for building understanding and strategy. Once more advanced, Raise Your Edge is a game changer. I could never fully commit myself to studying strategy so never progressed as far as necessary to become a serious winner. It's a brutal slog and to be honest wouldn't highly recommend it to most people. Expensive and really time consuming but those who get an edge on the field do quite well.

        1. Bubz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          2 months, 9 days ago

          Yeah poker is very hard to beat these days, used to be a lot easier

          1. Hot Toddy
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 2 Years
            2 months, 9 days ago

            Indeed. Cash games in particular are fairly brutal. Mtt's are my preference but I only play maybe 10 games a month now. Just dont have the heart for it.

          2. Danno - Emre Canada
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 9 days ago

            Yep saturated market now, so different than 25yrs ago. Still the same needing patience for both FPL and Poker, shame I have zero!

      4. rnrd
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        There are a lot of ressources but for me, the key is that you have to put a lot of hours into reviewing your plays and your hands.

        Play, make mistakes, review them, and also share your thoughts and decision process with fellow poker players.

        I don't think you will get a lot of valuable infos from top pros as a beginners except maybe starting hand ranges / positions

      5. Do I Not Like Orange
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Cheers all, really useful.

    3. SouthCoastSaint
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      I approach games in the same way.

      Mostly treat the bad beats/ Harry Kane not scoring against poor teams when captained the same way!!!

  6. JURGENAUT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    2 months, 9 days ago

    I hope Foden plays, he is my differential

    1. GloryManUnited
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      He will.

    2. FPL FAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      2 months, 9 days ago

      He will, for sure

    3. Lucy2019
      2 months, 9 days ago

      High chance he may but not guaranteed.

    4. sunzip14
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      I saw posts saying Lateriser captained him. So, haul incoming....... 🙂

    5. Strchld
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      My captain!

  7. jamiejoe
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Great article, i did well enough in the early days when I was crunching my own performance data from the player stats.

    With so many drop down menu's you need to take it to the next level so i admire these guys dedication.

    Obviously they enjoy the detailed statistical analysis too and logic checks.

    It is so competitive now.

    Top 100k now is top 0.01% of all teams so that is brilliant, nevermind all the talk and almost obsession with top 10k out of 7.4 million team entries.

  8. FPL FAN
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Non KDB and non Raz owner here. At least, i got Dilva, Foden and Jesus on my FH lineup.

    Am i supposed to panic?

    1. FPL FAN
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Forgot to mention that my ML rival got both KDB and Raz, + Foden

      1. JURGENAUT
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        2 months, 9 days ago

        I think yours is more explosive given they all start

    2. JURGENAUT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Let’s hope Foden starts the game and brings a super haul

    3. L S P
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      no

    4. jamiejoe
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Relax and enjoy...

  9. Bury94
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Not been this anxious about a team sheet all season. David Silva, (C) Foden and Sterling on my FH. Quitely confident the 3 will start

    1. Tempestic
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      There the 3 I would have gone with if I had room in the midfield. U're looking good

    2. Brosstan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Interesting to cap Silva if you think Sterling starts, no?

      1. Bury94
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        More sure about Silva starting. Plus, differential captain n all

    3. PaulRUK3
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Me too... I’ve triple captained Mr. Sterling!! I also have Foden and brought in Jesus for a hit. 35 minutes to lineup, getting anxious...

  10. Tony Martial
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 9 days ago

    How long is Mason out for 🙁 🙁 🙁

    1. JURGENAUT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      2 months, 9 days ago

      I don’t think he is out, given it’s a must win game, he will play

      1. TLF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        I think there's a good chance he misses out, got a swollen ankle and there are others who can step in for him on this occasion, he can't play them all.

        1. Lucy2019
          2 months, 9 days ago

          There is no one good who can step in and Ole has played the same team as they are winning. Footballers play with swollen ankles all the time.

          1. TLF
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 9 days ago

            Well I hope you are right as my BB is active but I'm not convinced Ole will risk him if there is uncertainty over his ankle, better to miss him for one match than the remainder of the season. Soon find out anyway but before that, got tonight's football to enjoy.

            1. Lucy2019
              2 months, 9 days ago

              He risked Rashford before he put his back out!!

              1. TLF
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 4 Years
                2 months, 9 days ago

                Haha, funnily enough I thought of that as I was writing my response to you, surely he wouldn't make the same mistake twice....

    2. Lucy2019
      2 months, 9 days ago

      He wont be out. Ole will want to keep a winning, mostly, side and James is utter dog shite. Literally worse then JLingz.

      1. Brosstan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        No one is worse than Linshite. Its close though

        1. Lucy2019
          2 months, 9 days ago

          Ok, lets agree it is a close call but at least JLings sells some decent clobber.

  11. Rondon9
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Great interview, cheers! 🙂

  12. linkafu
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Second FPL season, current OR rank : 94k

    Can I get into top 50k in 3 GW?

    1. FPLHaggis
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Yes

    2. Brosstan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Absolutely. You have a shot at top 25k at least, even top10k possible with max good variance.

      1. linkafu
        • 1 Year
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Thanks! Top 10K!! It would be a great second season!

    3. Rains of Castamere
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      You can - but you might need to take a couple of captain punts.

  13. EWH2020
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Rash to Greenwood last week was another terrible move then. I hate this game

    1. Lucy2019
      2 months, 9 days ago

      wasn't a terrible move. Just unlucky and he isn't confirmed out. The alternative is shite so would relax.

    2. Qaiss
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Stop playing it then

    3. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Not yet terrible

  14. Brosstan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Great article, again showing that the dullard approach is the best. Just go with nailed people with consistent big minutes, a history of high scores and high xG stats and you will prosper.

    Wish they had asked him what he thinks about players like Maddison or in earlier seasons, Tadic, who post monster xA scores that never materialize into anything.

    1. michaelington
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      I do think think it makes the flare picks less relevant. You could basically get a computer to do it for you if it's all just based on data.

      Good point about the other two. I do remember Tadic having crazy stats and then scoring about 18 goals in one game, didn't have him at that point of course.

      1. jamiejoe
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        He's crunching his own data and they are working out accurate algorithms...

        The computer is only processing it, they are shaping it.

    2. Whazza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Each to their own. You can win by playing aggressive too. A lot of luck involved I'd say the game is at least 35% luck

      1. jamiejoe
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        True... But you wouldn't luckily land top 2,000 4 or 5 seasons in a row.

  15. Weasel Boy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Great.

    I sell Rash for Greenwood and use extra funds.

    Rash scores Green blanks. Now he's injured.

    1. Strchld
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      I did same.

      1. Weasel Boy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Nice 🙁

    2. AzzaroMax99
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Who told you that Greeny is inj?

    3. Camzy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      I was warning people not to make that move... There are times when you've missed a boat, and you are better served trusting why you went with a certain pick and letting it ride out. Sometimes it doesn't work but usually it does because when you brought in a player, you brought him in for a reason and you often forget that reason when some other options starts to look better.

  16. Rains of Castamere
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Interesting to get forum opinion on this...

    If two FPL managers were ranked around 5k overall but one has taken two hits all season and the other one has taken 15 hits, who has performed better as a manager? Or is it a completely moot point?

    1. jamiejoe
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Just different approaches

    2. Qaiss
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      It’s irrelevant really. Both ways work. It’s only a game so taking hits and playing aggressive and trying to win a mini league is more fun than caring about a rank imo.

    3. Make Arrows Green Again
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      It means the same to me

    4. jamiejoe
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Because i like a transfer and take hits I'd say the more patient, long term strategy is admirable but got to give 3 or 4 games to hit points.

      You can't jump Salah, Sterling, Bruno, KdB, Mane looking to hit and haul everytime.

    5. Lucy2019
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Moot point and irrelevant IMO.

    6. andy85wsm
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 10 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      I think you can frame it either way, ultimately it doesn't matter 🙂

    7. COK3Y5MURF
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Both equally good. It doesn't matter how you get there, just how high you get.

  17. unitednations
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Best combo for gw37 only

    A: DDG + Digne + Pulisic with Foden on bench or vice versa if chance of foden starting
    B: Pope + Lamptey + Martial (c) (-4)
    C: DDG + Lamptey + Son (-4)

    Will captain Bruno in A and C. B is basically converting ddg for martial

    1. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      B

    2. Bobby Digital
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      A, but play Foden

  18. Vazza
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Scenes in just over an hour when the Man City team sheet is revealed....

    1. jamiejoe
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      I agree...

      The promised land for many or almost complete meltdown over 1 game week!!

      Going to duck out then!

      1. Vazza
        2 months, 9 days ago

        You have nothing to worry about as you have Foden as captain. Im seriously concerned that I captained Sterling. I’m currently on 0 points from 0 players but have already written this gameweek off!

        1. jamiejoe
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 9 days ago

          I captained Antonio and VC on David Silva... Late switch!

          1. Vazza
            2 months, 9 days ago

            Any player is a good captaincy shout this week other than Sterling who is going to come on for a 1 pointer cameo.

            1. onceuponatyne
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              2 months, 9 days ago

              God I hope so. My main competitor has him on TC!

            2. jtreble
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 9 days ago

              “... Any player is a good captaincy shout this week ...”. Finally, a terrific piece of analysis on here. Well done mate.

              1. Vazza
                2 months, 9 days ago

                Haha! I’m not sure whether that is sarcasm but it has surely made me laugh!

    2. SouthCoastSaint
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      These pages will be horrible, I’ll be back on long after the arsenal Liverpool game

      1. L S P
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        This

      2. Vazza
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Likewise mate... The individuals logging on in the interim are those who have captained Foden this evening.

        If he scores < 8 points, I would probably accept that right now

        1. Vazza
          2 months, 9 days ago

          ^will be those

  19. Right In The Stanchion
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Is an Aubamayang brace and Trent goal too much to ask for tonight?

    1. jamiejoe
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Probably most realistic than most expectations...

      I guess lockdown and furlough has offered us the opportunity to dive in deep again to strategy and tactics.

      Only one managers approach that counts for so many in a few hours time.

  20. King Kohli
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    What do you think these players will be priced next season?

    A. Salah
    B. KDB
    C. Bruno
    D. Vardy
    E. TAA
    F. Ings

    1. Make Arrows Green Again
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      12.5
      11.5
      11.5
      10.5
      8.0
      8.5

      1. JONALDINHO
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        No way Bruno will be as expensive as KDB

        1. Make Arrows Green Again
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 9 days ago

          Maybe not, but I bet he gets the same points when you factor in rest, rotation and squad depth.

    2. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Similar to what they are now, Spurs assets will be half price 😉

      1. g40steve
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Think classification should change for some as well?

        1. SouthCoastSaint
          • 8 Years
          2 months, 9 days ago

          Yeah I think Salah and mane should be strikers, would make the game more interesting.

          On this seasons basis Auba should be a midfielder if Salah and mane are

          1. Make Arrows Green Again
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 9 days ago

            Kane should be ball boy

    3. ElliotJHP
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      13
      12.5
      11.5
      9.5
      9
      9

    4. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 9 days ago

      12.5
      11
      11
      10
      8
      8.5

  21. ElliotJHP
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    One hour until Gundogan false nine confirmed

    1. jamiejoe
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Possible...

    2. Make Arrows Green Again
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      One hour until we know whether or not Ederson really can hack it as an outfield player.

      1. g40steve
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Watch him in the warm ups if the cameras are on him, unreal skills for a goalie.
        Could & should of had an assist by now 🙂

        1. Make Arrows Green Again
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 3 Years
          2 months, 9 days ago

          He had at least one last season IIRC?

          I really hope he gets to play outfield one day, even it it's his last ever game 🙂

          1. Miguel Sanchez
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            2 months, 9 days ago

            Huddersfield home game 6-1 last year? Jamie Jackson-gate

    3. SouthCoastSaint
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      It would be so funny if KDB, sterling, Jesus, d Silva are all benched

    4. linkafu
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Impepible

  22. SouthCoastSaint
    • 8 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    So Fifa have said 5 subs can stay in place till August 2021.

    Can’t see the premier league not adopting it.

    Surely this could warrant a new chip in FPL? Or just better distribution of funds to get a good bench?

    5 subs has a huge impact on the game

    1. TONY123
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      It makes a good bench in FPL less important imo. The 1-point cameos are clearly increasing, 0-point no shows are getting rarer.

      1. SouthCoastSaint
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Good point. Doesn’t make the game very fun, maybe a chip to swap out your lowest scorer for highest bench once per season?

        1. TONY123
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 9 days ago

          Not a fan of too many chips tbh, there's plenty of ideas about new chips but I prefer it clean and simple. 2 WC's either side of the mid-season break without the TC FH and BB chips would make the game more balanced imo.

    2. Make Arrows Green Again
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Worse bench IMO. Players are more likely to come on for a cameo, or come off before 60, than be rested entirely.

      Also, consider something like the United vs Southampton scenario the other night, where a weaker team comes back from 2-0 down to draw (albeit not in the 95th minute!).

      Under the old system, Ole might have used all his subs by the 80th minute in the expectation that they were defending a 2-1 lead. Under the new system, he could keep one sub in reserve so that they can throw on an attacking player (who would otherwise have been rested completely) to try to win it in the last five minutes if Southampton had equalised late.

      There will be more individual instances of players taking to the pitch therefore, and more bench players blocked by cameos.

      1. Make Arrows Green Again
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        OK Southampton didn't come from 2-0 down, but I mean that sort of scenario - big teams defending a lead from smaller teams. Or any team defending any lead 🙂

      2. SouthCoastSaint
        • 8 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Weaker team? With 52% possession at old Trafford?

    3. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      An option in FPL to use subs bench would be nice like Champions League fantasy.

      1. Make Arrows Green Again
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Is that like in World Cup fantasy where you can switch a player who has played and disappointed, say on the Saturday, for a player who has yet to play on the Sunday, as long as you accept that you can't get those points back if you make a mistake?

        You could certainly do that for captains, just can't remember if you could do it for the bench.

      2. TONY123
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        I think it would lead to a lot less people playing the game. Having to check your team once a week is ok for most people, but having to check it every day to do subs and change captains etc is not sth everyone has the time and motivation for.

  23. linkafu
    • 1 Year
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Ederson Saiss AUrier Sterling KDB playing tonight with Jimenez first on my bench

    What about you?

    1. SouthCoastSaint
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      You don’t have Ederson, sterling or KDB just yet!!!

  24. JONALDINHO
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Come on Foden(C)

  25. Daniel S., FPL Veteran
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Can't take it anymore. We need City lineup news asap

    1. Fudgy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Same the anxiety is killing me

      1. Daniel S., FPL Veteran
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Like on Christmas morning

        1. TONY123
          • 5 Years
          2 months, 9 days ago

          You're going to wake up to the horrible news that none of the toys you wanted are under the tree

    2. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Just keep yourself busy

      1. Daniel S., FPL Veteran
        • 11 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        I took my baby boy and we are outside . Went with your advice

  26. mixology
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Excited to read this article after work! Top,top manager! Cheers for putting this together

  27. The Senate
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    ~50 mins until I find that two of my triple City are benched

  28. jamiejoe
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Maybe all is well and I've misjudged the cup game.

    Sterling and Jesus and even KdB and Mahrez too all in the frame?

    . I will not pick the team with the Wembley semi-final in mind. I will pick what I think will be the best team to win in these ninety minutes and then against Arsenal, on Saturday night, I will again select what is best for the team."

    Pep

    1. Weasel Boy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Interesting

    2. THFC4LIFE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      He’s a compulsive liar

      1. THFC4LIFE
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        Bloody hope Sterling starts lol

        £550 on the line in a cash league!

    3. JONALDINHO
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      KDB Rodri Gundogan
      Mahrez Jesus Sterling
      That’s the lineup against Arsenal. Means that only people nailed tonight are Foden, Silva and Bernardo. I’d expect Sterling in a false 9 to join them

      1. jamiejoe
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 9 days ago

        I agree....

        Because the team to beat Bournemouth doesn't have to be their strongest side.

        Which will be needed on Saturday.

  29. Danno - Emre Canada
    • 5 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    A 1-0 Cherries win would make the last 48hrs seem somewhat _______ (fill in the blank)

    1. TyroneGAA
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Aguerooooooooooo

    2. Hot Toddy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Pineapple

    3. Van der Faart
      • 8 Years
      2 months, 9 days ago

      Hilarious

  30. KAPTAIN KANE
    • 3 Years
    2 months, 9 days ago

    Under 50 minutes until SCENES