Pro Pundits - Fábio

FPL tips and advice from FFS Hall of Fame leader ahead of Gameweek 4

Current Fantasy Football Scout Hall of Fame leader, Fábio Borges has finished inside the top 5k in each of the last five seasons, and even won 2020’s inaugural edition of Virtual FPL.


Patience has been my friend so far this season, which is nice to see in a campaign that has felt chaotic at times even at this early stage.

After three Gameweeks, I have only made one transfer so far, switching Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.9m) to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m), using up just one of the two free transfers I had last time out.

That means I have been pretty happy with my team so far and, thankfully, my patience has been rewarded too.

It has been a strong start to 2020/21 and I sit just outside the top 100,000 at the time time of writing.

WHAT TO DO WITH TIMO WERNER?

Werner scores on Chelsea debut as Ziyech sustains knee injury

After three disappointing performances for Timo Werner (£9.4m), in which he averaged just three points per game, many Fantasy managers are trying to decide what to do with such an underperforming and expensive asset.

There are several reasons for selling him, such as the emergence of other forwards due to form, fixtures (or a mixture of both), Frank Lampard’s tactical shifts and the possibility that Werner is struggling to adapt to a new team, league and country.

However, even though all those factors should be considered, the decision is very clear to me and the reason can be summarised in one small sentence: Werner is a world-class forward with two excellent home fixtures ahead of him. I think these two factors overshadow all the possible reasons to lose faith in him so soon.

Also, transfers are precious and I like to use them to fix the weakest links in my starting eleven. Despite the lack of returns so far, Werner is definitely not one of them for now.

ALEXANDER-ARNOLD VS ROBERTSON

WHICH IS THE BEST FORMATION GOING FORWARD?

Looking at the current player pool, there are many more defenders that I would like to have in my team than the number of cheap midfielders and forwards I’m interested in.

In fact, not only am I pretty happy with 4-3-3 but I am also considering moving to 5-3-2 to have as many defenders in my team as possible. 

The main advantage of defenders, in my view, is the lack of uncertainty when compared with cheap attacking players. This is mainly because a big chunk of defenders’ points is linked with their team’s defensive strength (clean sheets) which is much easier to assess and predict than the individual attacking potential of players from mid to low table teams.

This is especially true at the beginning of the season when it’s still unclear which cheap attacking gems are really worth it while it is already pretty obvious which teams are more likely to keep clean sheets and which defenders will be at the top of the points list by the end of the season.

However, going five at the back means a weaker bench and starting all five defenders every week can be tricky to manage since fixtures are so important for clean sheet potential so it’s likely that I will keep going with 4-3-3 for the near future.

THE P WORD

werner-replacements 2

Penalties are flying around at a rate never seen before in the Premier League. Nevertheless, we are looking at an incredibly small sample size so we have to be very careful not to draw any definite conclusion from it.

There was a total of 274 penalties across the last three Premier League seasons, which means that each team was afforded, on average, 0.12 per match. So far in 2020/21, this number almost tripled and is now at a staggering 0.35 spot-kicks per team per match.

However, my guess is that this is mainly due to a mix of pure variance with a strict interpretation of the handball rule by the referees which, according to the news, is about “to be softened”. 

Even if the number of penalties doubles this season (which I find it hard to believe), the increase in expected points for each designated taker won’t be as impactful as it seems at first glance because, on average, they will miss a penalty around 20% of the time.

Therefore, even though a possible increase in penalties will also increase the takers’ appeal (especially midfielders, who get five points for every penalty scored), I think it’s important not to get carried away by buying the likes of Mateusz Klich (£5.6m), Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) or even Richarlison (£8.0m) just because of their spot-kick duties. I would rather sign someone who offered threat from open play as well as penalties, which Zøphar touched on earlier this week.

TARGET FULHAM AND WEST BROM

State of Fulham defence bodes well for Wolves options in Gameweek 4

After three Gameweeks, it seems to me that the two newly promoted sides have the potential to be considered the whipping boys this season.

Since I like to put a lot of weight into fixtures when assessing my options, I will try to have as many attackers as possible against these two teams until they start showing some signs of defensive improvement.

Fulham face Wolves (away), Sheffield United (away), Crystal Palace (home), West Brom (home), West Ham (away) and Everton (home) between now and Gameweek 9. From that selection, I think we should be most aware of attacking assets on offer at Molineux, as well as the Eagles, Hammers and Toffees.

Meanwhile, the Baggies make for nice opposition for Southampton this weekend before boosting the attack potential of Burnley (home), Brighton (away), Fulham (away), Spurs (home) and Manchester United (home).

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3,398 Comments Post a Comment
  1. dshv
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Any chance of podence starting ?

    1. ...al
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      75%

    2. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Hope so

  2. Bumbaclot
    • 9 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Play Pickford home to Brighton or McCarthy home to wba in the draft gents?

    1. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 24 days ago

      McCarthy

  3. AK_FC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    Which option?

    A) Mitro > Ings (-4)
    B) Podence > H. Barnes (-4)
    C) Neither and keep Mitro + Podence

    1. Sid07
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      C

    2. Steerpike
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      A

  4. SMOOTH
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    quick one.

    A. foden digne
    B. ings 4.4 def

    1. Sid07
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      B if 4.4 is 4th choice defender

      1. SMOOTH
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        hes 4th choice but soucek is 7th attacker

        1. Sid07
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          A

    2. mpk
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      A

    3. AK_FC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Hmm A barely

  5. Sid07
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 24 days ago

    1) auba to kdb(-4)
    2) hold

    1. Kay317
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      1 month, 24 days ago

      1

    2. AK_FC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      I would do that

    3. Shineonme
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      1

  6. Cheeto__Bandito
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Best use of transfer?

      A) Davies ---> Robertson
      B) Bissouma ---> Foden (bench davies)

      1. Sid07
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        A

    • Agger
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 24 days ago

      Is anyone brave enough to captain the most in form striker in Europe at Home vs Brighton?

      1. Kay317
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 24 days ago

        It is tempting

      2. Right In The Stanchion
          1 month, 24 days ago

          I worry the big Brighton defenders will outmuscle him in the air. Could be totally wrong though and he bags a hatty

        • FPL_trail_runner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          1 month, 24 days ago

          He is playing Leeds away 😉

      3. Jones Town
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Best 6.1 or below midfielder? Mainly for this week as might be wildcarding next week...

        A) Trossard
        B) Pereira
        C) Soucek
        D) Other?

        Have Podence already! Thanks 🙂

        1. Kay317
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Pereira

        2. Dele
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Soucek

      4. mpk
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Do you believe Mahrez will start tomorrow?

        1. Kay317
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Yes

        2. AK_FC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Yes, I don't see why he wouldn't especially with Kun and Jesus out

          1. mpk
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 24 days ago

            He played last two, full 90 minutes, and torres proved his self in the last one

        3. Camzy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          No.

          But I'm about 60/40 so not at all sure.

        4. El Niño Yanqui
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Ask Pep, not us

      5. LordEllison
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Hey all, have 1 FT and 0.0 ITB do i Wildcard or do i just get rid of son? Thanks..

        McCarthy
        Trent Bdavies KWP Rjames
        Salah Sterling(C) Son ASM
        Martial Werner

        Steer Bissouma Mitchell Brewster

        1. AK_FC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Just do Son. Better to do WC during international break if you want to WC

        2. Garlana
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          I have a very similar team, doing the same for son, if he plays bonus. Maybe worth a gamble having Brewster first on the bench.

          1. Shineonme
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 24 days ago

            why brewster won't play

        3. Shineonme
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          really don't like the martial pick

      6. The Tinkerman
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Starting 3 flagged players this week. G2G or take a hit? I don’t trust Mou at all on Son’s availability.

        McC
        TAA, Justin, James
        !Son!, Salah, KDB, !Podence!
        Jiminez, !Richarlison!, Mitro

        Nyland; Taylor, Bissouma, Mitchell

        1. Dthinger
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 24 days ago

          similar position (see below). I'm leaning towards a hit including Son and one other

      7. DMil
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        Mane not pictured in training and rumours, I must stress the word rumours, doing the rounds he’s one of the positive tests. Mane owner here

        1. redsallstars
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Yeah they just said he’s tested positive

      8. Follyfarmer
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 24 days ago

        On wildcard and am pretty set on this team... but no salah is worrying me, what do you think?

        Mcarthy
        Digne - robbo - castagne
        Zaha - de bruyne - fernandes - pereira
        DCL - ings - jimenez

        Forster, lamptey, mitchel, bissouma

      9. UnitedRthebest
          1 month, 24 days ago

          Martial to Ings or Jimenez for 1 week before wc? Cheers

          1. AK_FC
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            1 month, 24 days ago

            For 1 week Ings, higher ceiling

            1. UnitedRthebest
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Cheers!

            2. Shineonme
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 24 days ago

              I would yes

              1. UnitedRthebest
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  Would you go Ings or Jimenez?

              2. El Niño Yanqui
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Martial is dead money right now

                - I own Martial, he looks TERRIBLE

                1. UnitedRthebest
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    yup agreed. reason i got rid.

              3. JURGENAUT
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Taking COVID into consideration, I think my squad is good to go. Thoughts?

                McCarthy
                Robbo / Justin / Lamptey
                Salah (C) / KDB / Zaha / Barnes
                Jiminez / Ings / DCL

                Bench: Forster / Soucek / Mitchell / Dallas

                0.1 ITB.

                Cheers

                1. Shineonme
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  I like the salah cap pick. Thats who I'm cap too.

              4. Sir Edo
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 7 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                I see a lot of games (5) to be played 15.00 from gw 5 and forward. No more evening ones or are they to be scheduled later?

                1. HuttonDressedasLahm
                  • 11 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  Later

                2. Seanigula
                  • 11 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  Later I think

              5. Dthinger
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Hmmm. Lascelles flag has me worried now.

                Leno
                TAA Robbo Lascelles* (Mitchell Ayling)
                Salah Auba Son* Podence* (Bissouma)
                Adams Mitro Jimenez

                That's at least one more injury flag than I'm comfortable with, so...

                a) Son to Mahrez (would have to start Mitchell or Ayling)
                b) Son + Lascelles to Mahrez + Coleman
                c) something else that doesnt involve James, Justin, Lamptey, or Foden.

                1. Dthinger
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  d) Podence + Lascelles to Soucek and Coleman?

              6. Dele
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Is Robbo and TAA overkill?

                1. Sir_Dunc
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  I have both. I'm wondering the same thing. Good points scores so far though and you've got to think Liverpool consistency will pay off.

                2. _Ninja_
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  No both are great options.

                3. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
                  • 9 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  If they were 7 & 7.5m mids we'd all have both.

                4. Dthinger
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  Depends. For me, its my strategy for this season. So I'm keeping them all season barring injury.

                5. El Niño Yanqui
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  You get a lot for your money with RoTAA strategy

                  But I would be against adding Salah to the mix with RoTAA

                  But I am having a horrible season, don’t listen to me

                6. Pumpy Pro
                  • 11 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  Just put them in and leave them . Require patience

              7. Sir_Dunc
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                What do people think of a flexible 352/343 formation with Soucek and Brewster rotating?

                1. Dthinger
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  I think you will be pretty upset when Souceks points are on your bench

                  1. El Niño Yanqui
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    Soucek is The Man.

                    People have said the new Fallini (?) or is he the Czech Rijkaard?

                    Many kids don’t know who Rijkaard was a player. He was awesome and do-all.

                2. Tony Martial
                  • 1 Year
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  It’s not too bad at all..

                3. FourLokoLeipzig
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  Not sure their fixtures match up well to rotate?

                  1. Sir_Dunc
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    Not straight away, but they get better as a rotation

              8. The_FF_King
                • 7 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Son out for

                A)Fernandes

                B) H Barnes

                1. The Senate
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  what will you use the extra 3.5M for? no brainer for Bruno if nothing major

                2. gomez123
                  • 7 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  i did b

                3. Shineonme
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  B

              9. Slitherene
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                McCarthy ¦ 0 ITB, 1 FT
                TAA - Coady - Justin - Taylor
                KdB - Salah - Jorginho - Son*
                Richarlison* - Werner*
                ¦ Mitrovic* - Ward - Bissouma

                1) Werner -> Ings
                2) Werner, Son -> Maupay, Sterling
                3) Werner, Mitrovic -> Wilson, Ings
                4) Save?

              10. Gaffa914
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Saiss and Werner to DCL and robbo?

                1. El Niño Yanqui
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  I would say yes. But Saiss is good. You don’t have another 5.0M defender to sell?

                2. Shineonme
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  no way

              11. Tmel
                • 9 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Captain Jimi or KDB?

                1. acidicleo
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  KDB

              12. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
                • 10 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                if it's true about mane, salah c right? Salah record without mane last season was amazing

                1. Pumpy Pro
                  • 11 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  Villa still a decent defence though.

                2. Seanigula
                  • 11 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  I think Liverpool win 1-0 without Mane

              13. Super Squirrel
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 11 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                For draft league.

                Who would you rather have long term?

                Che Adams or Rhian Brewster?

                Currently have Che Adams.

                1. Seanigula
                  • 11 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  Che

              14. HollywoodXI
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                GTG?

                Martinez
                Saiss Justin Mitchell
                Salah KDB Bruno Podence
                Vardy Ings DCL

                Steer Bissouma Dunne Cooper

              15. Trippier Hazard
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Hello, start Podence or Bamford please?

              16. Steirish
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 24 days ago

                Which?

                Robbo and Leno or
                TAA and Mccarthy?

              17. Zrinkec
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  Am i crazy to captain Auba over Salah, Ings and JImenez?

                  1. Dele
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    Yes

                  2. El Niño Yanqui
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    Auba is a great player but in the young 2020/2021 season...

                    Soucek is outperforming Auba

                    Mitrovic is outpacing Auba

                    DCL looks like a 30 goal player

                • Dele
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 24 days ago

                  Can someone explain to me the Soucek hype?

                  1. n-doggg
                    • 8 Years
                    1 month, 24 days ago

                    Have you watch the last few games? He’s basically the new Fellini for 5.0

                    1. El Niño Yanqui
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 2 Years
                      1 month, 24 days ago

                      Rijkaard 2020