Spot the Differential

Everton reinforcements can help Richarlison exploit Wolves in wide areas

Finding a credible differential is a test at the best of times, but even more so this week, with just 12 teams currently in action.

However, despite a smaller pool of players to choose from, we’ve found two options at Arsenal who we think can offer real value, as well as examining an alternative route into Everton’s attack.

As always, to qualify, the players must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Richarlison

  • FPL ownership: 4.1%
  • Price: £7.8m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: wol | avl | LEI | NEW | lee 

With James Rodríguez (£7.7m) and Lucas Digne (£6.0m) returning to action at the weekend, now might be a good time to re-evaluate Everton’s attacking assets.

In their absence, Carlo Ancelotti was forced to change his teams’ setup, opting for a more conservative approach. However, with key players back, I expect we’ll see them in a 4-3-3 again, the system which provided some good results in the early part of the season.

And while Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.8m) is the long-term play, team-mate Richarlison (£7.8m) might be worth a punt this week.

The Brazilian has been reliable on the road this season, producing attacking returns in each of his last four away matches, which has included goals against Leicester City and Crystal Palace. On his travels, he’s shooting more often, is more involved in the final third and is accumulating big chances at a faster rate too, all of which bodes well for his prospects at Molineux. 

The defensive data also tells us that Everton’s opponents, Wolves, tend to concede most of their chances from wider areas. In the last six matches, they’ve given up 17 from the left zone, 23 from the right and just eight from the centre. With Nélson Semedo (£5.4m) often looking vulnerable since his move, I think Richarlison will fancy his chances tomorrow night.

Everton were off the pace against West Ham United last time out, but will be given a lift by their returning players, and Richarlison could be an ideal gamble for those eyeing up a differential in their Free Hit squads.

Emile Smith Rowe

  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £4.4m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Arsenal’s Emile Smith Rowe (£4.4m) has impressed in recent weeks, and quickly established himself as a key part of Mikel Arteta’s young team.

Since making his first Premier League start of the season against Chelsea on Boxing Day, the 20-year-old has supplied three assists and created six chances. For context, that latter total ranks joint-fifth amongst all midfielders over that period.

Such is his importance right now, he didn’t start Saturday’s FA Cup third round tie against Newcastle United, but still came off the bench to inspire a 2-0 win. After a goalless 90 minutes, he finally broke the deadlock in extra time with a good finish, which helped earn him the man of the match award. It wasn’t a pretty win for Arsenal, but it was another performance which emphasised just how important the club’s youngsters are.

What’s noticeable is how much quicker the Gunners move the ball with Smith Rowe in the number 10 role, and having that creative figure in central areas has really helped them click going forward. In fact, since Gameweek 15, no team can improve upon their 6.87 expected goals (xG).

Next up for Arsenal is Crystal Palace, who have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their eight away matches this season. It’s also worth noting that their total of 15 big chances conceded in the last four Gameweeks is more than any other side.

Heading into Blank Gameweek 18, it looks like Smith Rowe will be one of the first names on Arteta’s team sheet on Thursday, and could be a nice differential pick for FPL managers on the lookout for a budget midfielder.

Rob Holding

  • FPL ownership: 4.8%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW18-22 fixtures: CRY | NEW | sou | MUN | wol 

Staying with Arsenal, another cheap differential worth considering is defender Rob Holding (£4.5m).

The 25-year-old has revived his career this season, becoming a regular for the Gunners. He has now started 13 of Arsenal’s 17 league games, including all of the last seven. He was even rewarded with the captain’s armband at Everton last month, highlighting his growing importance to the team.

Since returning to the starting XI against Tottenham Hotspur at the beginning of December, his impact is backed up by the numbers. 

During their last seven matches, Arsenal have afforded their opponents just 18 shots on target. Only Manchester City and Everton have given up fewer during that time, both of whom have played one game less. He carries a bit of goal threat too, as he ranks joint-sixth amongst all defenders for goal attempts, while he’s also posted team leading totals in most of the key defensive metrics.

His partnership alongside Pablo Mari (£4.4m) has helped deliver consecutive clean sheets against Brighton and Hove Albion and West Bromwich Albion, but we may see him pair up with the returning Gabriel (£5.0m) when they take on Crystal Palace at home on Thursday. After that, the North London side will then face Newcastle United.

Holding has established himself as a key player for Arsenal this season, and with an ownership of just 4.8%, could be a useful differential. 

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639 Comments Post a Comment
    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Wow

    2. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Thanks

    3. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Saiss in FTW

    4. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Makes it easier to sell him in GW19 now IMO.

  1. JIMMY764
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 17 days ago

    Well, that’s the FH reluctantly activated.

  2. wasp3000
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    1 month, 17 days ago

    I played my FH early as had only 5 players (Martinez Taylor Bissouma Son Bruno). With Martinez game gone, Bissouma suspended & Taylor injured, I would have only had 2 players playing lol.....I really had no choice but to play the FH 🙂

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      I have 5.5 players left
      I’m playing tonight

      1. wasp3000
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        I made the decision mid XMas to play for DGW 19 and not worry about 18 and FH. Now in hindsight it seems most can get a fine team out in 18 without a chip

  3. Top Lad Dakes. - WC/TC left
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    1 month, 17 days ago

    With the news that Spurs still play, would you get Kane back in by doing the following, or leave as is?
    FabioSilva AWB Darlow Sterling —> Kane Stones Lloris 5.6mid
    (Could even go for fodder on the mid, enabling replacing Wilson with Richa?)

    Darlow (4.0)
    Cancelo Tierney AWB (Mitchell 3.9)
    KDB Bruno Son Sterling Saka
    Lacazette Wilson (FabioSilva)

    Thanks 🙂

    1. kime67
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      going without kane this gw is stupid yes

    2. Better off with a pin and a…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Presume not on a free hit so this would mean points hits? If so, then it's too risky to spend that many points swapping playing players for other playing players. Darlow, Sterling and AWB could do pretty well.

      1. Top Lad Dakes. - WC/TC left
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        I’m on FH

        1. Better off with a pin and a…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          It's still tight, but I think it comes down to whether you think Kane outscores Sterling. The others feel balanced to me. Lloris probably has a better CS chance than Darlow, Stones/AWB feels level.

  4. HuttonDressedasLahm
    • 11 Years
    1 month, 17 days ago

    No brainer right?....

    Sanchez (Don’t ask!)
    Stones Holding
    KDB Son Bruno

    1 FT

    1. Dexters Laboratory
        1 month, 17 days ago

        1000000%

      • Better off with a pin and a…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Yup. You have to FH - when this season is it going to look worse (famous last words!?).

    2. YoungPretender
      • 6 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Wilson & Dias (have Cancelo)
      Or
      Foden & Tierney

      1. HuttonDressedasLahm
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        F and T
        Mainly due to uncertainty over Wilson

    3. Tonyawesome69 WC,FH,TC left
      • 2 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Dominic Calvert-Lewin has suffered a hamstring injury and will not be available tomorrow. Ancelotti unsure at this point when the striker will return... #EFC

      https://twitter.com/BenDinnery/status/1348618775499841536?s=19

      1. Lindelol
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        only 3 left in GW 18 then 😀

    4. b91jh
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      It is a triple Spurs then with the changing opponent. Son locked in also.

      1. HuttonDressedasLahm
        • 11 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        That’s everyone switching to Kane then

    5. Baines on Toast...
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      If Wilson is out, Laca becomes third striker by almost default.

      1. kime67
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        why would he be out?

    6. kime67
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      de gea or darlow in goal?

      1. LC1
        • 6 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        DDG

    7. Flair
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 17 days ago

      DCL out, the biggest threat by far to my rank this week. Phew!

    8. Hryszko
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Wow... with DCL out i can now only field 6, surely time to hit the FH button?

      1. Tonyawesome69 WC,FH,TC left
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Depends on your team. I would take 1-2 hits to bring in City players and save the FH. This helps with GW19

      2. Jack Burton
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        I would mate

    9. McSauce
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      1 month, 17 days ago

      Kane about to Shoot up the (C) Poll

    10. BurnMyBread
        1 month, 17 days ago

        When can we expect to get some clarification on Southampton's situation with regards to their match against Leeds?

      • Tsparkes10
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Is Aurier fit? Tempted by Reguillon on Fh

      • Shark Team
        • 3 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        If you have activated FH for this gw, is there anything you can do in order not to play it?

        1. kime67
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          no

          1. Shark Team
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Nice cause I wouldnt want another headache about which chip plan to follow

      • OptimusBlack
        • 7 Years
        1 month, 17 days ago

        Who to be in ur team ?
        Gundogan or Saka
        Rashford or Laca
        Leno or Darlow

        1. OptimusBlack
          • 7 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          For GW 18

        2. Dexters Laboratory
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Saka, Laca, Leno

          • Top Lad Dakes. - WC/TC left
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            I’ve taken Saka Laca and did have Darlow, but switched to Lloris cos I had the funds

            May switch back idk

          • SHOOTER MCGINN
            • 5 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Gundo, Rash, Leno

          • Nolberto Solano
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Saka, Rashford and Leno (Tierney is your other Arsenal right?)

            1. OptimusBlack
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 17 days ago

              Yes

          • Silecro
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Saka, Rash, Darlow

          • Tsparkes10
            • 2 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Both, Laca, DDG

        3. Dele
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Wow

        4. Inazuma X1
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Richa is a doubt too now?

          1. Top Lad Dakes. - WC/TC left
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Errr why

            1. Silecro
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 17 days ago

              Ancelotti: "Pickford is okay. Richarlison we have to wait at training today to make a decision. Calvert-Lewin is not available. Hamstring problem. No (there is no timescale). I think soon he can recover."

        5. Rhodes your boat
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Hi all, after the announcement I have this for gw18, tempted to do strujik balbuena to Mitchell Clark -4 to give me 8

          Stones holding Clark Mitchell
          Kdb Bruno son
          Kane

          Martinez Forster kwp salah soucek bamford davis

        6. SHOOTER MCGINN
          • 5 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Dias Maguire "Taylor Mitchell"
          KDB Fernandes
          Kane DCL

          Was always planning on taking a -4 to get Cancelo too and would've got 11 out (with Martinez & Grealish), but with Villa not playing wondering whether just to free hit. Would effectively be adding these guys to my team:

          Leno
          Taylor -> Son
          Mitchell -> Rashford
          Smith Rowe
          Cancelo (for free this week instead of -4 but I'd need the -4 next week to get him again for the double)

          Hoping to gain around 25-30 points from these guys on free hit - worth it?

        7. Merlinho
          • 11 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Saka and Wilson with slightly stronger bench (Lascelles/Mitchell/Brewster/Sanchez), or ESR and Laca and a weaker bench (Mitchell/Brewster/Bernardo/non playing keeper)?

          Not sure whether to worry about more postponements but either way my bench wouldn’t be great

        8. Nolberto Solano
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Which option to complete a FH team?

          A) Leno, Stones & Rashford
          B) De Gea, Gundogan & Lacazette

          1. Fit_to_drop
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 17 days ago

            A. Just

          2. dshv
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            A

        9. Fit_to_drop
          • 1 Year
          1 month, 17 days ago

          Got to this GW18 team with 0 hits and no chips. Planning to not change that either, even if Villa dont play.

          May do DCL&Grealish to Salah next week for a -4. Will leave me 11 DGWers if Stephens gets minutes for Burnley.

          GTG?

          Martínez
          Mitchell Cancelo Stones
          Fernandes Neto Stephens Grealish De Bruyne
          Calvert-Lewin Kane

          Forster Cresswell Robertson Bamford

          1. Rhodes your boat
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but dcl ruled out and Spurs now play Fulham so villa have no fixture

        10. dshv
          • 3 Years
          1 month, 17 days ago

          On FH

          1.Holding and darlow
          2.Leno and dier

          1. Dexters Laboratory
              1 month, 17 days ago

              2

            • OptimusBlack
              • 7 Years
              1 month, 17 days ago

              2

          2. Jabba12
            • 8 Years
            1 month, 17 days ago

            a) Tierney & Smith-Rowe
            or
            b)Holding & Saka?

            1. Fit_to_drop
              • 1 Year
              1 month, 17 days ago

              A for me

            2. Dexters Laboratory
                1 month, 17 days ago

                B

            3. Bleh
              • 4 Years
              1 month, 17 days ago

              DCL out for Wolves match

              https://twitter.com/_pauljoyce/status/1348618500215091201?s=21

              1. SHOOTER MCGINN
                • 5 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                Wow. Well that is the free hit 100% confirmed.

            4. The Senate
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 17 days ago

              (A) roll FT
              (B) Salah to KDB
              (C) Targett to Stones

            5. The Mighty Whites
              • 6 Years
              1 month, 17 days ago

              DDG or Lloris?

              1. abhirup780
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 17 days ago

                Depends on your defender selection.
                It is either AWB/Maguire + Lloris
                or Reguilon/Dier + DDG.
                cover for both defence is better imo.