942
Spot the Differential

Odegaard’s creativity can help provide FPL value in BGW29 and beyond

Blank Gameweek 29 is almost upon us which gives us an opportunity to have a look at some more differential options.

This time, we’ve selected low-owned picks at Arsenal, Fulham and Brighton and Hove Albion, who we think have the potential to make an impact.

As always, to qualify, the player must have an ownership of 5% or less at the time of writing.

Martin Ødegaard

Can Martin Ødegaard live up to his potential and become a top FPL asset?
  • FPL ownership: 2.1%
  • Price: £6.0m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: whu | LIV | shu | FUL | EVE

Martin Ødegaard (£6.0m) has made a real impact at Arsenal since joining from Real Madrid on loan in January.

The Norwegian international has now started seven of the Gunners’ last nine matches in all competitions, predominantly as a number 10, and has repaid his manager’s faith with important goals against Olympiacos and Tottenham Hotspur.

His displays have seen him become the focal point of the side, which is reflected in his numbers.

Since making his first league start last month, Ødegaard ranks first amongst team-mates for successful passes in the final-third and joint-top for chances created, while his total of four shots over the last two matches highlights his increasing goal threat. His ability to make himself free on the edge of the box is a really nice part of his game, and having taken a few corners too, there is lots to like.

Sunday’s 2-1 victory over Spurs in the north London derby leaves Mikel Arteta’s side 10 points adrift of the top four. However, a win against West Ham United this weekend would allow them to close the gap, and they have momentum. In fact, since Boxing Day, they sit fourth in the Premier League form table, having collected 27 points from their last 14 matches.

In a relatively short space of time, Ødegaard has become an integral part of this Arsenal side, and could be a useful budget differential for the run-in.

Tosin Adarabioyo

  • FPL ownership: 0.9%
  • Price: £4.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: LEE | avl | WOL | ars | –

Fulham defender Tosin Adarabioyo (£4.5m) has been a crucial part of Fulham’s defensive improvement this season.

Before his arrival in October, the Cottagers had shipped 11 goals in their opening four matches of the campaign. However, they have gradually improved since, and have now conceded just five in their last eight outings. 

During that time, the 23-year-olds partnership with Dane Joachim Andersen (£4.5m) has helped Scott Parker’s side register five clean sheets, and with Alphonse Areola (£4.6m) excelling in goal, bringing in a Fulham defender this week could be a shrewd move.

Their opponents in Gameweek 29, Leeds United, have failed to score in four of their last five matches, while Adarabioyo’s threat from set-pieces could be another route to points, too. The centre-back has produced 15 headed attempts from set-plays this term, a team-leading total, which is particularly relevant given that defending dead-ball situations has been an achilles heel throughout Marcelo Bielsa’s time at Elland Road. 

It’s another huge game for Fulham, who currently sit in the relegation zone but can move up to 17th with a win. Beyond that, there are winnable matches against Aston Villa, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Burnley, Southampton and Newcastle United before the end of the season, so there is potential to hold their assets long-term.

Adarabioyo has established himself as a key player for Fulham this season, and with an FPL ownership of just 0.9%, could be a useful differential.

Danny Welbeck

Welbeck ready to profit from Brighton's appealing run of fixtures
  • FPL ownership: 0.4%
  • Price: £5.5m
  • GW29-33 fixtures: NEW | mun | EVE | che | shu

Following the inclusion of Joël Veltman (£4.4m) in last week’s column, this time it’s the turn of team-mate Danny Welbeck (£5.5m).

After several substitute appearances, the 30-year-old returned to Brighton and Hove Albion’s starting XI last weekend and was central to their win, providing the assist for Leandro Trossard’s (£5.8m) second-half strike.

The former Manchester United and Arsenal forward has now been directly involved in five goals this term, despite being limited to just 15 appearances and eight starts. That suggests he can make a notable impact when on the pitch, and with Newcastle United up next, he could be worth a look.

The Magpies have been poor on the road this season, and have won just three of their 14 Premier League away games. During that time, only Leeds United have a worse expected goals conceded (xGC) total, while they also rank in the bottom three for attempts in the box and shots on target conceded.

While Brighton have often flattered to deceive under Graham Potter, the return of Adam Lallana (£6.2m) can help them kick on. Against Southampton, he was pulling the strings in a slightly deeper role, and if he can stay fit for the remainder of the season, then Albion’s survival chances will receive a massive boost.

Welbeck has a big role to play too, and could be a nice under the radar option in Blank Gameweek 29.

avfc82 https://fantasy.premierleague.com/entry/818/history”

942 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Pompel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Four things that needs to happen to make not FH'ing the correct decision:

    1. Brighton to concede
    2. Son to stay on bench
    3. Cresswell to blank
    4 .Watkins to blank

    1. Stupendous
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      1. Hope not
      2. He won't even make bench
      3. Likely 2 pts
      4. Likely 2 pts

      1. Pompel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        7 months, 11 days ago

        Seems reasonable - hopefully Brighton ownership low enough to not hurt too much, even though could be missed opportunity

    2. Nanoelektronicar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Brighton have an awful xGC Delta, so even vs Newcastle, I can't be confident they'll keep a clean sheet. It's likely, but you just can't trust them.

  2. aleksios
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    On -4.Another hit required? 10 field.

    --Martinez
    --Cresswell--Dunk--Targett--Dallas
    --Bale--Raphinia--Lingard
    --Kane--Bam.

    Thanks.

    1. Max City
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      no

    2. artvandelay316
      7 months, 11 days ago

      It's one GW. No point in going -8 (or even -4 IMO) unless strong probability that the player is going to give you huge point rewards.

  3. Stupendous
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    If I bench Martinez Auba Raph and Bale for Pope Digne Stones and Gundo, would FPL towers ever scrap automatic substitutes???

    Benchwonkery learnt!

    1. Stupendous
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Mid game week rule changes

    2. Dirty Harry
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Go to bed

      1. Stupendous
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 11 days ago

        It's 9am
        Ta.

  4. Jafooli
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Gonna stick my captain on the bench so his juicy double points comes on when the game updates at the end of the GW.

    #hugerankleap

    1. Stupendous
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Hahahaha

    2. g40steve
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Lots seem to be filling bench with players then awaits game update for large rise?

    3. Nanoelektronicar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      I don't like to do that because live fpl needs more time to predict my rank with autosubs included.

  5. Mr Ozil
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Play Areola or Martinez?

    1. Max City
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      same problem here.. currently on Areola, no, Martinez..

    2. Zladan
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Martinez. Spurs look lacklustre without Son.

  6. VaVaVoom14
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Do we reckon Bamford plays? Heard he hasn’t been spotted in training?

    1. aleksios
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Yes.

  7. HMC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    salah to auba
    gundo to lingard
    one of these moves or both?
    wc31

    1. aleksios
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Both.

    2. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Both

  8. xandu
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Salah and Gudo for free to:

    A: Bale and Lingard
    B: ABU and Lingard
    C: Drop it!!

    1. aleksios
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      A.

    2. artvandelay316
      7 months, 11 days ago

      C

  9. Nanoelektronicar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    My two cents on Bale, as a two week punt, with wildcard in hand:

    I think he plays against Villa. With Son probably out, I think it's far fetched he gets dropped just like that to put both Bergwijn and Lo Ceslso straight in. Caveat is that Spurs haven't been great without Son anyway, so doubling up with Kane is probably overkill in this game.

    Newcastle game, with Son back, Lo Celso back from injury, I think Bale is under threat to start that game. I don't say he won't start definitely, but with everything that happened over the season, I can't say Bale is nailed on to start every game.

    The best alternative for my team is Aubameyang, (maybe a Brighton mid?) who I would probably have to transfer out in gw 30 anyway. So if I go for Bale, I could hope I get two decent games out of him, and if I am not confident he would play v Newcastle I would swap to Son, so considering the transfer consumption, it would be the same as in Auba case.

    In this limited pool, I think I should go for Bale, hoping that he gets the Newcastle game with Son on the pitch to boost the Spurs creativity.

    1. Finding Timo
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Agree bale slightly shades it given more secure to play GW29 snd better fixture GW30

  10. artvandelay316
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Out of:
    Kane
    Lingard
    Cresswell
    Dallas

    Who is best choice for Captain and VC?

  11. sarnshawn
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Thoughts? Used free hit. Not sure about bench.
    Martinez (Areola)
    Dunk (c) Cresswell Veltman Dallas
    Bale Raphinha Lingard
    Kane Lacazette Antonio
    Bench - Aina Odegaard Aubameyang

    Could put Ode in & if he doesn’t play he’ll get subbed?

  12. Pompel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Last important decision to be made: who goes out in favour of Cresswell out of :

    A) Stones - value and goal threat, but playing only every second match or so
    B) Dias - most nailed, but could wish for better attacking returns for the price

    1. Max City
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      I can't decide myself, I have Cancelo and Dias, tho

      1. Pompel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        7 months, 11 days ago

        Out of those two, I'd lose Cancelo

    2. artvandelay316
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Stones is cheaper and does make up for the points lost in a missed match. Plus no loss if he doesn't play and gets subbed.

      1. Pompel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        7 months, 11 days ago

        Yeah, leaning that way , as I have good bench cover

    3. Nanoelektronicar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      I would keep Stones, but more for sentimental reasons, I just love undervalued player that delivers. If you have your wildcard, you can get decent 5 at the back, so you'll have good autosub for Stones. If you rate City defense in the coming weeks and would like to have Ctiy defender week in week out, keep Dias. For my team, Cancelo will probably leave the team, and I might keep Stones, or go without City defender on wildcard. Liverpool are getting their act together so Phillips 4.0 could be nice punt, Cresswell is my go to option for run in, Shaw is in the mix too, Chelsea defender, and maybe first name on that sheet is Coady. Arsenal have great fixtures, Leicester too, but I will probably stay clear.

      1. Pompel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        7 months, 11 days ago

        No WC, so thats part of reason why I'm looking at Cresswell. And don't fancy double City defence going forward + might like to have a spot to get KDB in + other good value options availavke like e.g. Rudiger

    4. pingissimus
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Think it's MBP who pointed out daft Stones XG - he's been scoring goals that he has no right to apparently.

      Dias has actually had more attempts in the box, more headers and more shots on target.

      1. Pompel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        7 months, 11 days ago

        Interestinf, wasnt aware of that. So selling Dias could come back to bite me then

        1. pingissimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          7 months, 11 days ago

          Looking solely at stats there doesn't seem to be a whole heap between them for attacking returns potential. Zero eye test involved here. Perhaps Stones is still the pick because he has an eye for goal that Dias doesn't.

  13. Mane Mane Mane
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Money no issue, best two defenders and two best midfielders for this week only?

    1. Zladan
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Reguilon Dunk

  14. HD7
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Dunk or Dallas?
    Laca Lingard or Raphina?

    1. Jambot
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Dallas and Jlings

  15. Jafooli
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Is DCL > Antonio worth a hit?

    1. Nomar
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Just go for it.

  16. Gooner49
    • 3 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Got FH and BB left. No WC
    Current team is:

    Martinez
    Targett Veltman Struijk
    Gundo Fernandes Son Raphina
    Watkins Kane

    Subs: Shaw, DCL, Salah

    Should I
    A) FH for full team
    B) Salah > Bale
    C) Son + Salah > Bale + Auba
    D) Any other ideas?!

    1. Max City
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      6 is the threshold number of players, so it is up to your view on longer term

  17. g40steve
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Play Sanchez or Martinez?

    RMT leaning towards Sanchez

    1. Nanoelektronicar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Tough, Sanchez more likely to keep clean sheet, in most free hits, but look what happened to Martinez last week. Villa are not pushovers, Martinez could get some saves, and anything more than 2 points from him drops rank.

      1. g40steve
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 3 Years
        7 months, 11 days ago

        That’s the problem, cannot see Villa keeping Spurs from scoring?

  18. Dirty Harry
    • 6 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Quick vote?

    1. Odegaard
    2. Trossard

    1. Max City
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      I already have Trossard.. so it must be Odegaard

      1. Dirty Harry
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 11 days ago

        If you didn't have Trossard?

        1. Max City
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          7 months, 11 days ago

          I personally don't trust ARS.. and have a neutral feeling about BHA

    2. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      1

  19. Max City
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    which 2 would you bring in:

    A) Bale (2 votes)
    B)Tierney (0 vote)
    C) Dunk (3 votes)
    D) Lingard (3 votes)

    1. Dirty Harry
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      C&D

    2. Boris Bodega
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      A & B

    3. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      AD

    4. artvandelay316
      7 months, 11 days ago

      D

    5. Max City
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Cheers!

    6. HIAFL (Howe to Train your D…
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Cd

    7. Etern007
      7 months, 11 days ago

      A&D

  20. RamaJama
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    DCL/Digne to Bamford/Cresswell worth -4?

    1. Dirty Harry
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Is Bamford out?

      1. RamaJama
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 11 days ago

        No, likely to play

        1. Dirty Harry
          • 6 Years
          7 months, 11 days ago

          Would you not want Digne/DCL for GW30 against Palace?

    2. Max City
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      I wouldn't take any hit, never worked out this season

  21. Gabbiadini
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Does Son play v Villa?

  22. Christina.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Beauty about selling Son and Cancelo this week is now my team for 33 is also sorted.
    😎

    1. Nomar
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Lovely.

    2. james 101
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Post it?

    3. Dark Side Of The Loon!
      • 5 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Nice. And those out is a smart call!

  23. KUNingas
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Would you take a hit? Will WC31 so only short term punt for this week.

    A) Auba, Veltman (-4)
    B) Trossard/Gross

    1. Dirty Harry
      • 6 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Yolo

      1. KUNingas
        • 5 Years
        7 months, 11 days ago

        Leaning to that.

    2. KUNingas
      • 5 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Or B with Odegaard!

  24. KeepCalm
    • 7 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Cancelo to Reg or Tierney? Better option long term?

  25. Jerse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    7 months, 11 days ago

    See a lot of "expert" opinion on the number of hits to take if say you don't have or don't want to use the free hit chip. Its hardly rocket science and obviously depends upon your team. If you think you would like the player going forward, then maybe a hit is ok, as it is effectively a -2 hit, provided the player does not get sent off ! Otherwise in a dull GW, think long and hard and particularly the fixtures of who you bring in and who you are bombing out.

    1. Nomar
      • 11 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Does this count as “expert” opinion too?

      It’s good advice though. 🙂

      1. Ruth_NZ
        • 6 Years
        7 months, 11 days ago

        It's the dumbing down of FFS, everything must be presented as a black-and-white answer nowadays whereas in FPL you are mostly dealing with subtle shades of grey.

        Current issues like whether to FH or not and how many hits to take if you don't have the FH require a LOT of context. Like what other chips are left? What's your plan for using them? What's the exact current makeup of the squad? What changes would help beyond this one week (players in and/or players out)? EVERY good decision in FPL is part of a longer-term perspective and not just for that one week (unless we are in GW38).

        Without that context, any opinion offered or answer given is just a mess of white noise based on assumption and generalism. Unfortunately FFS has developed an increasing tendency that way because its target audience only have a simple spoon and want simple food put on it. 😕

  26. Zlatan F.C
    • 1 Year
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Pick one below for this GW and tell me why

    A) Auba
    B) Lingard
    C) Bale

  27. Deulofail
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Bellerin came off after 82 mins last night, while Cedric was rested and Tierney played the full 90. Do you think Bellerin will start again on Sunday with Cedric on the left? Or more likely Cedric & Tierney fullbacks?

    1. Dark Side Of The Loon!
      • 5 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      I would say Cedric and Tierney to play. But Arteta has learnt it from Pep. So anything can happen. I have Tierney in my FH team though.

  28. thomashl
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Salah or Gundo OUT for Bale?

    1. artvandelay316
      7 months, 11 days ago

      Out the two, Salah. But Personally I think Bale is going to flop and it's not worth it just for this week.

      1. thomashl
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 4 Years
        7 months, 11 days ago

        I see! I'll probably keep Bale and play him next week, planning to wildcard in 31.

        Who are your top targets this week?

        PS love the nick, btw. My Twitter handle is FPLCostanza

  29. artvandelay316
    7 months, 11 days ago

    Kane Captain, Lingard Vice Captain? Or better Dallas or Cresswell for VC?

  30. james 101
    • 9 Years
    7 months, 11 days ago

    8 starters plus son. (So, 8)

    DCL to

    A. Bam
    B. Antonio
    C. Keep

    1. james 101
      • 9 Years
      7 months, 11 days ago

      For a FT. No hits yet.

    2. artvandelay316
      7 months, 11 days ago

      C

      1. james 101
        • 9 Years
        7 months, 11 days ago

        Cheers