Pro Pundits - Fábio

How I decide whether or not to take hits for new FPL assets

We are reaching the decisive moments of the season and, from now on, every small decision can have massive implications in our Overall Rankings and Mini League standings.

In this article, I will go through the analytical approach I like to use when I am debating if I should take a hit or not, by looking into my latest decision as an example. 

I hope it can help you whenever you face a close call like the one I faced last weekend.

Blank Gameweek 29 went really well for my team. Despite only fielding nine players, I managed to get 62 points and one of the highest Gameweek ranks of the whole season.

Joel Veltman (£4.4m), Jesse Lingard (£6.2m) and Patrick Bamford (£6.7m) delivered double-digit hauls and my captain Harry Kane (£11.6m) converted a penalty against Aston Villa. That propelled me back into the top 6k after a couple of disappointing Gameweeks in a row.

Getting Kane and Lingard for Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.6m) and Mohamed Salah (£12.4m) with my two free transfers were fairly easy and standard decisions. Kane was a must-have given his massive ownership in the top 10k and I really wanted Lingard, who seemed to be enjoying life under David Moyes’ command, with four goals and two assists in his first six matches for West Ham.

Having decided what to do with my transfers, I started wondering if taking a hit would be worth it, in order to add one more player to my already depleted squad. Son Heung-Min (£9.4m) and Bamford were yellow-flagged, meaning there was a chance I would only field seven players, which was a bit less than I was hoping for when I started planning for the Blank Gameweek several weeks ago.

After looking at all possible options, I came to the conclusion the only hit that could possibly make some sense, would involve getting Lewis Dunk (£5.0m) in for João Cancelo (£6.1m).

Brighton and Hove Albion was, by far, the most likely team to get a clean sheet so I would not mind a defensive double-up, by adding Dunk to Veltman (who I bought in the previous Gameweek).

At the same time, I knew I was going to use my second Wildcard ahead of Gameweek 31 so I did not really need Cancelo anymore since he was blanking in Gameweek 29 and I already had a decent defence for Gameweek 30 anyway.

But how to know for sure if getting Dunk was worth throwing away four of my hard earned points? Personally, I like to remove all bias and gut feelings from my decisions whenever possible by using an analytical approach to figure out if the player I am considering buying will get me over or less than four points on average.

In order to decide if I was buying Dunk or not, I made a list of all the ways Dunk could win or lose points:

  • Playing time
  • Clean Sheet
  • Attacking returns
  • Bonus points
  • Two goals conceded
  • Yellow cards

Then, I tried to figure out how many points I could expect from Dunk in each of these actions individually. Let’s go through them.

PLAYING TIME

This one was easy. Being ever-present at the heart of the Seagulls defence, Dunk was guaranteed to play over 60 minutes, so I would be shocked if he did not get me two points just for playing.

90 minutes = 2 points

CLEAN SHEET

For determining how likely it is for a team to keep a clean sheet I like to use clean sheet odds, which I think is the most accurate metric available, even if it might be a bit subjective.

According to G-Whizz’s weekly hot topic on clean sheet odds, Brighton had a 48% chance of keeping a clean sheet against Newcastle United. If we multiply it by four (number of points a defender earns for getting a clean sheet), we see that Dunk would get 1.92 clean sheet points on average:

0.48*4 =1.92 points

What chip strategy are FFS users planning for Blank Gameweek 18?

ATTACKING RETURNS

To analyse Dunk’s potential in terms of attacking returns, I decided to use data from the last three seasons. I always prefer to use long-term numbers whenever I think the old data is just as reliable as the new one (which is usually the case for centre-backs).

So here are Dunk’s attacking numbers since 2018/19:

    – GOALS PER 90 – 0.09

    – ASSISTS PER 900.04

Having assembled this data, the only thing left to do is to multiply these numbers by the number of points that defenders get for goals (6 points) and assists (3 points):

(0.09*6) + (0.04*3) = 0.54 + 0.12 = 0.66 points

BONUS POINTS

Dunk got a total of 35 bonus points in the last three seasons, having played a total 8,631 minutes, which means he gets 0.36 bonus points per 90 minutes played:

(35 / 8631) * 90 minutes = 0.36 points

TWO GOALS CONCEDED

According to the sports betting industry, Brighton had roughly a 20% chance of conceding two or more goals against Newcastle and it seemed like a fair number to me, so I went with that:

0.20 * (-1) = -0.20 points

YELLOW CARD

Dunk has seen a yellow card 18 times in his last 8,631 minutes, which means he loses 0.19 points per match on average due to his fouls:

( 18 / 8.631 * 90 ) * (-1) = -0.19 points

CONCLUSION

Finally, by adding all the average points Dunk would get for each of those actions, we see that the Brighton captain was worth a total of 4.55 points on average for his Gameweek 29 match against Newcastle.

This means taking a hit to get him in, would give me a net gain of 0.55 points on average according to the above calculations and so, I decided to trust my method and go for it. 

Even though it seems like a small gain, we face several close decisions like this over the course of a season and they certainly add up to our overall points. Making the best decision on average whenever we face close decisions can be the deciding factor between finishing inside the top 10k or not, between winning a mini-league or finishing second just a couple points behind. For this reason, I like to make sure I am taking every small thing into account by using an analytical approach instead of just trusting my gut or following the template.

In the end, Brighton did keep a clean sheet and Dunk got six points, which means he over-performed what my calculations expected by 1.45 points. 

But even if he blanked, I would be happy with my decision of taking a hit, knowing that if I keep making transfers with a positive expected value in the future, it will work out more times than not.

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120 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Baines on Toast...
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    2 months, 24 days ago

    Enjoy Fabio's writing as always.

  2. LewanGOALski
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    2 months, 24 days ago

    Which one would you go for - Mount or Havertz..?

    1. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 24 days ago

      Tough one. I like Mount as he is nailed and on most set pieces. Havertz in the false #9 position is interesting but he is vying for a position that is heavily rotated. Also Chelsea are grinding out results, not winning games by a big margin and don't have a consistent scorer. I think I would lean towards Mount since he has more avenues for attacking points.

      1. theplayer
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 24 days ago

        Mount may be favoured but he's never nailed while they're still in the Champions League. He was benched just recently. So much rotation going on at Chelsea just now.

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 24 days ago

          For a GW30 punt after IB, I think it is fine. For the next few GWs, I won't be getting a Chelsea attacker. Mendy and Rudiger would probably be the only Chelsea players I'll be interested in getting on WC31.

    2. gonzalocampos
      • 6 Years
      2 months, 23 days ago

      I am going with Alonso, fully rested.

    3. Pukki Blinders
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 23 days ago

      Neither. Plenty of other nailed budget mids that will get you more points in better attacking sides

  3. Live Scoutcast Tues 8pm - leave your questions here
    J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 11 Years
    2 months, 24 days ago

    LIVE SCOUTCAST TUES 8pm

    Feel free to leave your questions for us here!

    1. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 24 days ago

      If Neto's train leaves the northern station at 12.30pm and travels at 60km/h and Havertz' train leaves the southern station at 12.55pm and travels at 75km/h, which one ends up in my team first?

    2. dbeck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 24 days ago

      Who are the best one week punts before Wildcarding?

    3. Little Red Lacazette
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 24 days ago

      Worth it to bring in a CHE defender for 1 of 2 City defenders just for GW30?

    4. Rex Lash
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 24 days ago

      Is there any point in trying to save the Wildcard beyond 31?

      1. Qaiss
        • 5 Years
        2 months, 24 days ago

        Yes. It is team dependent..

    5. Chris_H
      • 12 Years
      2 months, 23 days ago

      A reflection on the last GW and the merits of a FH. There seemed to be a lot of chat about 'saving it' or it not being worthwhile because there were only four fixtures, does this make us reassess the optimum time to use it?

      (Realising that perhaps there's no real conclusions to be drawn!)

    6. AllGonePozzo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 23 days ago

      Is Alonso worth a 1 week punt given he hasn't been on international duty?

      1. FALSE PROFIT
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        2 months, 23 days ago

        He is my skip

    7. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 23 days ago

      Should we wildcard into gameweek 35 when potentially 8 teams have a double?

    8. The 12th Man
      • 7 Years
      2 months, 23 days ago

      Danny Ings ?

    9. Qaiss
      • 5 Years
      2 months, 22 days ago

      Is Gameweek 32 now the best time for Triple captaincy if you still have it?

      Or are possible future double GW’s more appetising, albeit we don’t know for definite what DGW’s there will be other than 2 fixtures of Villa - Everton and Southampton - Palace.

  4. pingissimus
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    2 months, 24 days ago

    Great article

    Curious to know how this breaks down in a normal week with no BGW and WC coming. The one week calculation looks good but it won't be often that the hit is only relevant for one week - generally speaking the new player will be part of the team set up for a good few weeks. Indeed when I take a hit it's typically on the understanding the new player has at least 3/4 weeks to pay me back rather than looking for an instant return in one week.

    1. COVID-CASUAL
        2 months, 24 days ago

        If it’s going to take you 3-4 weeks to pay back the hit you’re looking at only a 1 to 1.33 point gain in the 1st week (on average)... so why not just wait one week and do it for free?

        1. pingissimus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 24 days ago

          There may be another higher priority move 🙂

          1. Major League Shocker
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            2 months, 24 days ago

            Yes, this is a very simplistic example. If you gain a fixture by making the move, and the player you bring in should score at least 4 points (or 4 points more than the player you take out, if replacing a SGW player with a DGW player), and you are about to WC, you take the hit. Not controversial at all.

            To me, the time that it's hardest to decide is when it's early in the season and I'm trying to assess the value of taking hits to preserve the first WC vs. just playing the WC. Usually in this case, if the hit produces more than a 4-point increase in my score on RMT for the next few gameweeks, I feel like I should do it.

            The other time that it's hard to decide is when there is a clear opportunity for gain in the current gameweek, but potential long-term losses -- such as if the Cancelo to Dunk move was not about to be followed by a WC, so it would leave you with Dunk in your team for the long term.

    2. Stejson
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      2 months, 24 days ago

      Interesting method.
      One coukd further refine this by looking at whether bonus points are correlated with clean sheets etc.
      It could be an interesting project to run a "what if" scenario based on past data and past odds to see how such a mechanical strategy would work longer term.

      1. TheDragon
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 24 days ago

        It gets way way more complicated allowing for multi weeks and impact of ‘what if’ you made a different transfer or saved etc

        1. Stejson
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          2 months, 24 days ago

          Agreed, but one could employ a range of simple strategies in an automated way to see they have any merit over what you actually did to justify further investigation.
          E.g. Using the FT to swap your lowest expected points for the highest expected points for that week and then see if there are positive expected points positions to justify a hit on top of that.

    3. Tonyawesome69
      • 2 Years
      2 months, 24 days ago

      For the past 6GWs, I've been stuck around 61-73k OR. I can't wait to WC31!

      Looking for some early thoughts on Digne or Cancelo to Alonso or Bale to Mount/Havertz as a one week transfer before WC.

      Leaning towards losing Digne. He has been frustrating to own and Everton at home have been terrible (refer to FPL Blackbox around 1.28.00 about double digits hauls against Everton at home). I expect Cancelo to start after IB and the GW before UCL. I don't see Bale getting back in the team.

      WC31 FH33
      1FT 5.5itb
      Martinez
      Dallas Digne Stones
      Raphinha Son Lingard Gundo
      Kane Bamford DCL
      (Fabri Bale Cancelo Cresswell)

      1. TheDragon
        • 3 Years
        2 months, 24 days ago

        I’m in a similar position to you al round.

        Can’t decide who to go for as a 1 week punt. I think there are realistically 3 options it’s between

        A) Alonso
        B) Havertz
        C) Fernandes

        1. Tonyawesome69
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 24 days ago

          For me, Bruno can wait until WC31. What's your thoughts on Digne being transferred out?

    4. G Banger
      • 3 Years
      2 months, 24 days ago

      Still early, but providing no injuries, this good for a WK 30 BB?

      Martinez
      Azpi, Shaw, Dallas
      Ralph, Bale, Lingard, Bruno
      Kane (C), Bamford, DCL

      Pope, Stones, Coufal, Trossard

    5. Little Red Lacazette
      • 4 Years
      2 months, 24 days ago

      1FT, 6.1ITB.

      Will WC in 31. Is Stones to Azpi and good move?

      Martinez
      Dallas Stones Dias
      Bruno Raphinha Lingard Gundo
      Watkins Kane Bamford*

      Pope Son* Mee White

      1. fc_skrald
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        2 months, 24 days ago

        Think Alonso will be a fun pick if only for one gameweek. Thinking of getting him myself but I have no wildcard left to clean it up afterwards...

      2. pingissimus
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 24 days ago

        Alonso is the upside choice on the one week play.

        If you buy into the theory that he gets low block defences then that's where I'd go.

        The alternative is to turn Gundo into KdB for a week. I'm pretty sure KdB is much the better option nowadays and think he'll get Leicester anyway and he from memory does nicely in big matches, It's another upside play.

        Azpi just looks like a low risk possible marginal gain. Solid of course 🙂

        1. Little Red Lacazette
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 24 days ago

          Just worried about Alonso's "nailedness". Will look into KdB for sure.

      3. Tonyawesome69
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 24 days ago

        If bringing in a Chelsea def for GW30 only then surely Alonso is the best one GW punt? Not sure why you would lose Stones when you have Mee or White that can be transferred out and 6.1itb. Prefer Stones or Dias as first def on the bench

        1. Little Red Lacazette
          • 4 Years
          2 months, 24 days ago

          True on Stones, best to have him on bench and sell one of the other 2.

      4. liverpool01
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 24 days ago

        Looks like a nailed on cs for Azpi, I would go for it since you would be using your wildcard in gw 31.

    6. COVID-CASUAL
        2 months, 24 days ago

        Simple and effective method, nice article.

        I’ve taken only 3 hits this season, and ballsed them all, but at least I feel better about undertaking a similar process.

      • liverpool01
        • 2 Years
        2 months, 24 days ago

        Martinez
        Dias, Shaw, Dallas
        Gundogan, Son, Bruno, Mount
        Bamford, Kane(C), DCL

        Pope, Minamino, Stones, Lowton

        1FT 1.6 ITB

        BB Still available

        1. liverpool01
          • 2 Years
          2 months, 24 days ago

          Minamino to Lindgard?

          Any changes guys?

          1. marcos11
              2 months, 24 days ago

              Think Minamino > Lingard is a good move

            • Tonyawesome69
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 24 days ago

              I don't think Lingard is the right player to come in for GW30. Lowton to Rudiger or roll FT would be my suggestion.

              1. liverpool01
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 24 days ago

                Cool thanks guys, Rudiger is a good suggestion.

        2. marcos11
            2 months, 24 days ago

            Why are teams now blanking in both gw32 and 33?

            1. Tonyawesome69
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 24 days ago

              GW33 has been a blank for a while due to FAC semis. For GW32, the games that have been removed from the fixtures are expected to put back in GW32 and played midweek. Go have a look at Ben Crellin on twitter

              1. Tonyawesome69
                • 2 Years
                2 months, 24 days ago

                correction - blank for a while due to league cup final*

            2. No Professionals
              • 3 Years
              2 months, 24 days ago

              one FA cup semis and one League Cup final?

            3. Jimmers
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              2 months, 24 days ago

              FACup in GW32 - but games will most likely be moved to midweek so no real impact

              League Cup Final in GW33 - ManCity play Spurs and their games against Southampton/Fulham were already played in GW26/27..

          • Karan14
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 24 days ago

            Martinez
            Cancelo Dias Shaw
            Salah Bruno Son Gündo Raphinha
            Kane DCL

            (Fabri Antonio Struijk Burn)
            0.0m & 1 FT

            Thoughts on transfers here?

            Been completely out of the loop for the past one week. Anything important I missed?

            1. Tonyawesome69
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 24 days ago

              Any chips? If so, what are your plans?

              1. Karan14
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 24 days ago

                Just BB & TC.

                1. Tonyawesome69
                  • 2 Years
                  2 months, 24 days ago

                  Problem is you don't have 0itb. I would either look to sell Cancelo to a Chelsea defender or roll the FT. Another problem you have is the BB chip with a poor bench. What is the plan there?

                  1. Karan14
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    2 months, 24 days ago

                    I'm hoping there's a few teams who double in 35/36 because of rescheduling. Will probably take a couple of hits then to use BB.

                    Cancelo to Rudiger was my first thought. Think I should go ahead with that as it free up some funds too upgrade that bench too.

          • No Professionals
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 24 days ago

            Martinez
            Digne Shaw Dallas
            Fernandes KDB Lingard Raphinha
            Kane Bamford Watkins

            Areola Gundogan Stones Burn
            2.6m 0ft (1ft will be used to do aubameyang to fernandes)

            Burn to Chelsea defender and Bench Boost? Feels like it would be a strong bench, but risk with City players.

          • Deulofail
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 24 days ago

            My team looks too good. I rarely seem to do well when I'm happy with my team... 😐

            1. Little Red Lacazette
              • 4 Years
              2 months, 24 days ago

              Lets see the dream team.

              1. Deulofail
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 23 days ago

                You gotta see it to believe it!

                Martinez
                Cancelo Stones Digne
                Bruno Son* Gundo Minamino
                Kane DCL Richarlison

                McCarthy | Targett, TAA, ESR

                1FT. 0.2ITB

                1. Little Red Lacazette
                  • 4 Years
                  2 months, 23 days ago

                  Could go well.

          • waltzingmatildas
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 24 days ago

            Best one week move
            A) dunk to alonso
            B) lingard / gundo to bruno

            1. Tonyawesome69
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 23 days ago

              A for me unless you plan to Bruno (c). If not then Bruno can wait

          • Catastrophe
            • 10 Years
            2 months, 24 days ago

            Help appreciated chaps, 1 FT and 0.6 ITB. No chips left.

            Martinez
            Shaw, Dallas, Konsa
            KDB, Fernandes, Bale, Gundogan, Raphinha(c)
            Kane, Lacazette

            (Sanchez, Watkins, Cresswell, Dunk)

            A) Dunk -> Rudiger (bench Konsa?)
            B) Bale -> Lingard
            C) Save FT

            Cheers

            1. House Frey Wedding Planner
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 23 days ago

              Dunk to Rudiger with an eye to do Bale to Jota the week after.

              Gives you a bit more money to play with

              1. Catastrophe
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 23 days ago

                Cheers - sounds good, like the look of Liverpool's fixtures then. Will probably lose KDB then also, dependent on City blanks.

            2. Tonyawesome69
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 23 days ago

              A or C

              1. Catastrophe
                • 10 Years
                2 months, 23 days ago

                Ta.

          • Mainswitch
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 3 Years
            2 months, 24 days ago

            Any idea when postphoned fixtures will be announced?

          • Deulofail
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 23 days ago

            I agree with this kind of approach in general. It tends to wipe out irrational, noisey like ceiling dreams and number of double digit hauls (etc x 1000) when making decisions. I would say that you haven't completely combatted this, though, since your analytical approach isn't comprehensive (though all projections will ultimately be flawed in some way, so it's still a reasonable approach for sure), and because you used "free transfers" before considering the hit, and your approach to those "free transfers" was not the same analytical approach you used for the hit.

            Rather, part of your rationale, for example, was the ownership of Kane in the top 10k. It's interesting that you didn't consider the ownership of Dunk in your analytical approach. And Interesting that people can compartmentalise good decision-making to apply it when convenient, while making other decisions based on dodgy logic (imo).

            The hit you took for Dunk was not isolated from your decision to use your free transfers, so buying Kane wasn't free. It cost (1) a free transfer, and (2) some of that 4-point hit. Likewise, Perhaps it would be more convincing and felicitous to take a more holistic analytical approach. Admittedly, in this case, Kane would probably have easily passed the analytical approach anyway, but when we are talking about methods and approaches, it makes sense to be consistent or otherwise explain why the method should be used only in a specific circumstance.

            Nice read anyway. Thanks.

            1. Major League Shocker
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 1 Year
              2 months, 23 days ago

              "It cost (1) a free transfer, and (2) some of that 4-point hit."

              This logic seems common, but I don't agree with it. The courses of action he was considering were:
              A. Bring in Kane and Lingard only (2 FT)
              B. Bring in Kane, Lingard, and Dunk (2 FT plus -4)

              The only difference is the Dunk move, so he should allocate the entire hit to that move.

              The only time that part of the hit should be divided among the moves are if, for example, A was not actually an option because he didn't have the funds to do A without performing a defender downgrade.

              In any case, I appreciate Fabio and others starting this discussion -- it's important and not discussed enough.

              1. Major League Shocker
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 1 Year
                2 months, 23 days ago

                It would be instructive if BlackBox or other podcasts went back and looked at significant moves they made that involved hits, possibly 4-5 gameweeks later.

                For example, Andy took a -8 in DGW26 to bring in Kane and TC him. Although I was sceptical of that move at the time, and it did produce a red arrow that week even with TC played, now it looks pretty good.

              2. Deulofail
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 23 days ago

                I agree with you if your assessment of the options (A + B) is correct.

                However, my reasoning is that, because the rationale/method for A was different to the rationale/method for the Dunk move, the two decisions have been artificially segregated without applying the logic to consistently. Without applying an "analytical" approach to the options in A, there is no real way for me, personally, to conclude that (a) Kane and Lingard are better than Dunk, or similarly that (b) they are required (from FTs) before considering a third option.

                My point is more about the consistency of application of logic. There might even be a better way to spend -4 with the same money and 3 completely different players (in this week or any other), but the author has vetoed that possibility by choosing to do A first (based partly on non-analytical biases), then consider a third move (based on an analytical approach).

                It's a minor detail about the order of operations. But my main point is really about narrow application of an analytical approach to hits, but not for FTs (and other things, often, around these parts).

                1. Christina.
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  2 months, 23 days ago

                  did you BB in wk1?

                  1. Deulofail
                    • 5 Years
                    2 months, 23 days ago

                    Haha yep!

            2. FBorges
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              2 months, 23 days ago

              Hi Deulofail!

              Regarding your points, the reason I didn't analyze my two free transfers in detail (or even bothered to take an analytical approach at the time) was because they seemed like very straightforward decisions to me and I had no doubt they would be worth spending two of my transfers on them, ...I decided to only analyze the Dunk move because it was a much closer decision and I thought it would work better as an example.

              But you are right, I probably should have mentioned something about it in order not to contradict myself in the article.

              However, I will have to agree with Major League Shocker regarding your other point. When I was faced with the decision of taking a hit or not, I have already used my two free transfers so, in this case, it was an isolated decision, completely independent from my past two moves. For this reason, in this specific example, I don't think I had to consider anything else other than "Is Dunk worth over/less 4 points" when I was faced with the decision.

              Anyway, really appreciated your insightful feedback. Thanks.

              1. Deulofail
                • 5 Years
                2 months, 23 days ago

                Fair enough. Cheers for the reply. 🙂

          • Salan
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            2 months, 23 days ago

            Completely assuming those postponed gw32 games will be put back into gw32 (mid-week) is dangerous to me.

            It's not confirmed yet and still can bring you surprise sometimes.

          • Alisson WondHaaland
            • 5 Years
            2 months, 23 days ago

            With WC 31 planned, whats the best move for 1 GW here?

            Mccarthy/ Sanchez
            Konsa Rudiger Shaw
            KDB Bale Raph Son
            Kane Watkins Bamford

            Ayling Cancelo Bissouma

            A) Cancelo to Alonso and play him over Watkins
            B) Mccarthy to Mendy
            C) Son/Bale to Havertz (depending on injury)

            1. Tonyawesome69
              • 2 Years
              2 months, 23 days ago

              Surely 1GW punt has got to be A or C as they have the higher upside than Mendy. A for me

            2. CaptainKazuru
                2 months, 23 days ago

                McCarthy > Mendy - should be an easy 12 points with the Chelsea double up

            3. CaptainKazuru
                2 months, 23 days ago

                Best Bale replacement for game weeks 31-33,

                A) Lingard
                B) jota

                No salah, will have both of the above for end of season run in

                1. Tonyawesome69
                  • 2 Years
                  2 months, 23 days ago

                  Jota - WHU have LEI, NEW and CHE. Tough fixtures on paper compared to LIV who have AVL, LEE and NEW. I can't see Jota being rotated when LIV need him for both league and UCL

                  1. CaptainKazuru
                      2 months, 23 days ago

                      Thanks dude

                2. Deulofail
                  • 5 Years
                  2 months, 23 days ago

                  Anyone here understand the European routes to the WC:

                  "The ten group runners-up [in the European Qualifiers] are joined by the two best group winners of the 2020/21 UEFA Nations League overall ranking that have neither qualified directly for the final tournament as European Qualifiers group winners, nor entered the play-offs already as European Qualifiers group runners-up."

                  https://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/0258-0e2bb3490b69-0abf5d9bc2fa-1000--how-world-cup-qualifying-works/?iv=true

                  What exactly is a "best group winner"?

                  Can a team from Nations League D be the best group winner if they have the most points of any group? And if so, any thoughts as to why it makes sense to allow countries from the lower NL tiers to qualify before the higher ones? Isn't that like giving a Champions League slot to the winner of the lower tiers in European leagues?

                  1. Major League Shocker
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 1 Year
                    2 months, 23 days ago

                    Seems like it must mean the ones from the highest level Nations League, with points used as a tie-breaker if two are in the same level.

                  2. Jambot
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    2 months, 23 days ago

                    It's from top leagues down. It's just their way of ensuring if a big team messes up qualification that they still qualify

                    1. Deulofail
                      • 5 Years
                      2 months, 23 days ago

                      Ah right, so last place in League A is higher priority than first place in League B?

                3. SIGGYMETIMBER
                  • 5 Years
                  2 months, 23 days ago

                  Anyone benching Mount this week if he starts for England tomorrow?

                  1. RAFA THE GAFFA
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 5 Years
                    2 months, 23 days ago

                    Guess it’s part of the lottery you get with Tuchel. Probably just play

                4. RAFA THE GAFFA
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 5 Years
                  2 months, 23 days ago

                  Considering a BB before WC31 (1FT & 4m Itb). Would probably need a -4 to sort the keeper and at least 1 of the other bench players. What you reckon? Cheers

                  Martinez
                  Digne, Dias, Dallas
                  Bruno, Son*, Lingard, Raphina
                  Kane, DCL, Bamford*
                  (McCarthy, Soucek, Coufal, Dunk)

                5. trinzoo
                  • 6 Years
                  2 months, 23 days ago

                  Bruno said on Facebook he won't be playing against Luxemburg - do we know why?

                  1. FALSE PROFIT
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 7 Years
                    2 months, 23 days ago

                    Portugal want to play their 1st team in this one.

                    1. Pukki Blinders
                      • 1 Year
                      2 months, 23 days ago

                      Best attacking mid in the league being left out? Weird 1st team they’ve got then

                      1. FALSE PROFIT
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 7 Years
                        2 months, 23 days ago

                        Where has your sense of humour gone to?

                  2. Kno
                    • 10 Years
                    2 months, 23 days ago

                    yc suspension, no worries

                  3. Camzy
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 11 Years
                    2 months, 23 days ago

                    Suspended.

                    1. trinzoo
                      • 6 Years
                      2 months, 23 days ago

                      Thanks guys!

                  4. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 11 Years
                    2 months, 23 days ago

                    Probably good news for prospective captainers

                    Guarantees him the best rest he’ll have had in a long, long time in the run up to Brighton at Old Trafford on Sunday

                6. Sharkytect
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 6 Years
                  2 months, 23 days ago

                  This is the geekiest decision making ever...and I love it

                7. A Kun & Mateta
                  • 7 Years
                  2 months, 23 days ago

                  Genius decision making - Decision analysis PhD on Dunk! I still feel sick with Burn, Son, Bale and friends. Can't wait for next gw to start, these mega red arrows over international breaks are torture!

                  1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 11 Years
                    2 months, 23 days ago

                    Yeah the Dunk decision making process was super - I think we all subconsciously do a similar calculation, but to break it down by element like that is nice & objective

                8. Pukki Blinders
                  • 1 Year
                  2 months, 23 days ago

                  What’s with the Chelsea attack hype? Under Tuchel, Chelsea are posting much worse attacking numbers compared to Lampard, not to mention the fact that the entire attack is rotated every single game since Tuchel has come in...

                  It’s simply Chelsea defence or nothing.

                  1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 11 Years
                    2 months, 23 days ago

                    Give it a few more games

                    As soon as they go out of Europe or finish 5th the fans (and Ambramovich) will notice he has a billion pounds of talent playing like George graham's arsenal & the Stamford Bridge managerial Guillotine will be greased up & readied for action once again

                    1. Pukki Blinders
                      • 1 Year
                      2 months, 23 days ago

                      The never ending cycle. Chelsea FC is a bigger comedy act than Arsenal at this stage

                9. Cometh The Aouar...
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  2 months, 23 days ago

                  Mount benched v West Brom ahead of Porto tie and recent England participation?

                10. thepancakeman123
                  • 2 Years
                  2 months, 23 days ago

                  This team is good enough for me to let my transfer roll over right?

                  Martinez
                  Dias, Stones, Dallas, Rudiger
                  Salah, Fernandes, De Bruyne, Raphinha
                  Kane, Bamford

                  Forster, Welbeck, Dunk, Saka

                  1. Little Red Lacazette
                    • 4 Years
                    2 months, 23 days ago

                    Oh yes, looks good.