Gameweek Guide

The Complete Guide to Scout’s tips and advice for Gameweek 38

The end of the most unusual season is upon us, and with it comes the final opportunity to climb the ranks or claim mini-league glory.

The usual mix of dead-rubbers and motivated teams is slightly diluted this season with the title and relegation places settled ahead of time, but the battle for the top four and the remaining European spots remains wide open.

And Gameweek 38 has a reputation for the unexpected. 

Take Theo Walcott’s 34-minute hat-trick against West Bromwich Albion at the end of the 2014/15 campaign, or the ten goals shared equally between the Baggies and Manchester United in Sir Alex Ferguson’s last game in charge.

This year, West Brom could be involved in another high-scoring affair when they visit a fan-filled Elland Road. The Leeds United faithful celebrating not only their first season back in the Premier League for 17 years but also their Championship victory from 10 months ago.

With the cricket season already underway, could we see a cricket score in the football?

The last round of matches all kick-off simultaneously, as is tradition on the final day of the season, handing us a Sunday deadline of 14:30 BST.

Celebration and Motivation

Just as they did in midweek, the home sides will benefit from playing in front of their supporters. Although, as Spurs discovered against Aston Villa, a poor performance can quickly change the mood. Boos ringing out at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium before half-time. 

But with Marcelo Bielsa’s side finishing the season strongly, Leeds United are not expected to suffer the same fate. 

Hotly tipped by Zophar, the Pro Pundit is backing Patrick Bamford (£6.6m) and co to push him towards his eighth top 10,000 finish. The combination of in-form striker against porous defence appeals:

Bamford tops the xG non-penalty numbers (1.73) for Leeds over the last four matches and has landed at least double the number of shots on target (six) compared to any other Leeds player. West Brom have conceded a massive 50 shots on target over the last six Gameweeks; that’s an average of over eight a game!

When selecting his shortlist of favoured armband candidates, Captain Sensible writer Jan put Bamford in third.

The Whites have only lost one of their last eight matches at Elland Road and put five goals past Sam Allardyce’s men the last time the two sides met. Since then, the Baggies’ fortunes have not changed, conceding at least two goals in six of their last eight league outings.

There was, however, a word of caution voiced for those considering Bamford.

Neale, the doyen of the team news, warned of reduced minutes for several of the Leeds contingent due to farewell appearances for long-serving players Gaetano Berardi (£4.0m) and Pablo Hernandez (£5.7m). 

I would not be shocked if [Bamford] got 60 or 70 minutes.

– Neale

Nonetheless three of Bielsa’s men are selected in the final Scout Picks of the season. 

The known absentees for the Whites are Illan Meslier (£4.8m) in goal, Mateusz Klich (£5.2m) and Diego Llorente (£4.4m). Meslier missing out has left many managers contemplating a hit for a goalkeeper, something Neale advised against, even if it meant going with ten men.

Across the Pennines, Manchester City’s line-up is, as ever, hard to predict. And this weekend they are joined in that respect by their local rivals Manchester United, who play in the Europa League final on Wednesday. 

Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer promised to “make a few changes” with Bruno Fernandes (£11.3m) among those not guaranteed a starting spot.

Going for Gold

All this means that Liverpool offer the best captain options. 

Mohamed Salah (£12.9m) and Sadio Mané (£11.8m) are not only Jan’s top picks but also those of Tom and Andy among our four Scout Picks selectors. 

Ahead of facing a side he scored 16 points against earlier in the season, Mohamed Salah is top among all midfielders for expected goal involvement (xGI) over the last four matches. Just two players have more shots in the box than him over the last six, suggesting he will be giving his all to win the Golden Boot race on Sunday.

– Scout Picks

And our Big Numbers article pointed to an encouraging statistic for Mané owners.

Seven – the number of consecutive Premier League games that Sadio Mané has scored in against Crystal Palace. In the league’s history, only Robin van Persie (against Stoke City) has scored in eight consecutive matches against an opponent.

– Big Numbers

What’s more, Liverpool need to win to ensure Champions League football for next season.

The Reds are currently level on points with Leicester City but are above them in the table thanks to their superior goal difference. However, a big win for the Foxes by five goals or more would put real pressure on on Jurgen Klopp’s side.

An unlikely scenario, perhaps, but Liverpool may want to bag a few goals against Crystal Palace just to be on the safe side.

And the Eagles have an abysmal record against their hosts, having lost their last seven matches against them by an aggregate score of 22 goals to five.

The one spanner in the works could be that this is Roy Hodgson’s final game in charge. 

Part of me thinks they are going to be right up for this and I don’t think they are going to roll over.

– David, Captaincy Video

However improbable, a repeat of the scoreline on Sir Alex Ferguson’s last day in the Old Trafford hot seat would be welcomed by Fantasy managers, with the obvious exception of Liverpool fans.

Anfield was also set to be the petri dish for David’s new ‘equal opportunities’ captain experiment.

Speaking on the Captaincy Video with Joe, David suggested the radical idea of handing the armband to the best candidate based on their qualifications alone. He highlighted a player who has scored in each of the last four Gameweeks, has had the most shots over the last six matches, and is up against the team that has conceded more big chances than anyone else.

However, that player, Christian Benteke, is now an injury doubt and has been left out of Neale’s predicted line-up. The experiment will, unfortunately, have to wait until the new season.

Must Win

The best Neto replacements and whether FPL managers should stick with Fernandes

As mentioned, Leicester City’s need not only to win but ideally by a big margin, thrusts Kelechi Iheanacho (£6.2m) into the spotlight. 

The Foxes forward has 11 goals in 11 matches and faces a Spurs side who conceded 20 shots in their home encounter with Aston Villa.

But the fact that Brendan Rodgers could instruct his team to go for it at some stage, may benefit Harry Kane (£11.9m) if it means Leicester leave themselves open at the back. The want-away Spurs forward has an impressive record against the newly-crowned FA Cup winners, scoring 14 goals in 11 Premier League meetings.

Encouragingly for those backing Kane, influential centre-half Jonny Evans (£5.6m) is set to sit out the King Power clash with injury. His presence at the back was sorely missed in the 4-2 home defeat to Newcastle United in Gameweek 35:

[The injury to Jonny Evans was] very disruptive. He’s a great talker. With Caglar and Wesley, they are both fantastic talents but Jonny is the brain in there and he organises them so for him to come out was a big blow for us.

– Brendan Rodgers, after the Gameweek 35 defeat to Newcastle

Elsewhere, Michail Antonio (£6.7m) boasts impressive underlying stats for West Ham’s clash with Southampton.

Over the last four matches, no forward has registered a higher xG non-penalty (2.52) than the Hammers forward.

– Zophar

And Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side have not done well on the road: 

Nine defeats for Southampton in their 10 away league fixtures this calendar year. The Saints, who travel to West Ham United this weekend, have conceded 30 goals in these nine defeats, scoring just seven in return. Their sole win on the road in 2021 was at relegated Sheffield United.

– Big Numbers

Don’t Look Back in Anger

Pro Pundits Simon March and Lateriser were both in reflective mood ahead of the season finale.Simon counselled on the perils of hindsight bias, while Lateriser rued his early season overconfidence.

“We are more likely to apply hindsight to negative outcomes than positive ones … The key to overcoming hindsight bias is learning to evaluate decisions based on their logic rather than their outcome. Rationally-speaking, the outcome should be irrelevant if the logic used in the decision-making process was sound.” – Simon March

And this is where Lateriser feels he let himself down at times, believing he could create whatever narrative he wanted and going against logic. He cited the example of ignoring Mohamed Salah in Gameweek 1 when Liverpool took on newly-promoted Leeds United.

All the same, the three time top 200 manager is still in love with FPL.

“I was actually very surprised by how much I enjoyed a green arrow despite the poor rank. It gave me genuine delight and that little bit of a good run I had in the past few Gameweeks.” – Lateriser

Community Competitions and Head-to-Head Fixtures

UEFA Champions League Fantasy Football is back - what you need to know 3

Following the quick turnaround of recent weeks, Neale recapped on the winners of our two cup competitions. Congratulations to Genovoze and Mohd Rodzi on their respective triumphs in the FFS Open Cup and FFS Members Cup.

And well done to Jambo17 who added a third-place finish in the FFS Open Cup to his 2018/19 runners-up spot in the Members Cup. Likewise Rossaldinho, who overcame SUNFLOWER to take the bronze medal in this year’s Members Cup.

RedLightning brought us his regular update on the community competitions, which included a look at the Grand Final of Last Man Standing.

The competition, run every year by TorresMagic, eliminates the lowest-scoring managers each Gameweek until just four managers remain to battle it out in the final round. 

The Hsuper One adds his name to the list of winners after overcoming Robert Tuck (aka COVID-CASUAL), Steven Schelk (aka The Suspended One), and Amit Sharma in Gameweek 37. Many congratulations to him.

And despite his cup success Callum Croal (aka Jambo17) will be one of the ten managers relegated from the top division in our Head-to-Head Leagues.

Gameweek 38 sees David Arblaster, in eleventh, take on Richard Clarke, in tenth, to decide the final relegation spot. Meanwhile Aleksander Våge Nilsen (aka AleksanderVN) will be hoping for a win or a draw to ensure he claims the ultimate prize of Head-to-Head League Champion. Ville Tuominen (aka Santigold) lies in wait should he slip up.

The Head-to-Head fixtures for Gameweek 38 can be found below. 

The scores and tables update every night on the Head-to-Head Leagues main page so you can keep track of the action as the Gameweek unfolds. 

For the last time this season, may your arrows be green!

TopMarx Fan of Fantasy Football and Monty Python. "Archimedes out to Socrates, Socrates back to Archimedes, Archimedes out to Heraclitus, he beats Hegel. Heraclitus a little flick, here he comes on the far post, Socrates is there, Socrates heads it in! Socrates has scored! The Greeks are going mad, the Greeks are going mad! Socrates scores, got a beautiful cross from Archimedes. The Germans are disputing it. Hegel is arguing that the reality is merely an a priori adjunct of non-naturalistic ethics, Kant via the categorical imperative is holding that ontologically it exists only in the imagination, and Marx is claiming it was offside.”

2,761 Comments Post a Comment
  1. AD2110
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Bruno to?

    A) Mahrez/Torres/Sterling
    B) Mount
    C) Pepe

    1. The Knights Template
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      B

  2. OptimusBlack
    • 8 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Mane C ?
    Yaaaay
    Nope

    1. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Yip

  3. Maddamotha
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Would you do one of these, and which one?

    A) Watkins > Bamford (starting Rudiger who plays Villa)
    B) JWP > Raphina

  4. Jerse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    As a Leicester fan we get used to being underdogs and flying under the radar, but have just listened to 3 alleged experts hardly even mention Ihneacho at home to Spurs, who lets face it were dire (excuse the pun) against Villa who could have won 5-1. They even suggested Werner who cannot hit a barn door from 2 yards and plays for the new Mourinhio at Chelsea !

    Am backing my team on the final day and after Kane's woeful non show on Wednesday, its Kane out, Ihneacho in, and possibly De Bruyne or Pepe for Greenwood for some last day fun ! Mane captain as well as have 14 points to make up in my mini league.

    1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
      • 11 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      wouldn't be surprised to see vardy come out and put in one last performance too

    2. CR7 is Home
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Have Vardy, Nacho and Maddy, please give me 25+ between them

    3. Jon Snow
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Feeling the same. Trailing by 11pts so don't want to hit. Rival already has Bamford and Antonio so best hope might be -4 and all aboad the Nacho train!

    4. AC/DC AFC
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Talk Sport?

    5. Pompel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      So torn between Bamford an Nacho myself - you're having me waiver on Bamford decision

  5. Big Col
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Start Greenwood or JWP?

    1. JBG
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      G

    2. Snooze ya lose
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      G

  6. Beatle
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Any indication who'll start between Forster or McCarthy?

    1. Sun Jihai
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Forster if the pattern holds

  7. boroie
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Any other changes needed?

    Henderson
    TAA Holding Rudiger
    Salah(C) Son Mahrez Raphinha
    Kane Firmino Bamford(VC)

    Forster; ESR Coady Godfrey

  8. King Sheep
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    A Pereira

    B Raphinha - 4

    1. Pukkipartyy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 2 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      B

  9. CR7 is Home
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Triple chelsea, triple Liverpool, triple Leicster (oops), all with some incentive, chasing 21 pts in ML, along with Konsa and Wood

    No hit, Salah (c)

    Let's GO

  10. Hryszko
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Am I good to go then? Fingers crossed I can break into the top 10k (14k currently)

    Mendy
    Trent - Rudiger - Coufal
    Salah (c) - Son - Mane - Raphina - Lingard
    Kane - Bamford

    Bench: Forster - Vydra - Veltman - Coleman

    1. Tired and weary
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      That’s a great team mate, good luck

    2. Jack Burton
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Good luck mate

  11. MOZIL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Kane to Firmino for a -4?

    1. CR7 is Home
      • 4 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      No

  12. JB_FC
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Which three to start (have Mendy in goal):
    A) TAA
    B) Dallas
    C) Rudiger
    D) Coufal
    E) Holding

  13. Life_Ban
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Will there be any price rises tonight?

    A) Raph
    B) Mane (-4)

    1. Traction Engine Foot
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Err no

      1. jason_ni
        • 5 Years
        4 months, 8 hours ago

        Lol..

    2. Andy_Social
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      That's a GREAT line 😆

  14. Jones Kusi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Who to start?
    A. Zaha (LIV)
    B. Coady (MUN)
    C. Holding (BHA)

    1. Traction Engine Foot
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      C

  15. Buck The Trent
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    A or B ?

    A Aguero Creswell
    B Kane Lowton

    1. Traction Engine Foot
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      B

  16. vincentwsho
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Start Watkins over JWP?

  17. BENOIT
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Torres or Raphina?

    Got Bam.

  18. Pukkipartyy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Bench one.
    DCL / Son / Greenwood?

    1. Traction Engine Foot
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Dcl

  19. Carcetti
    • 9 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Reckon Mahrez plays or shall I play Saint-Maxim or Coufal instead?

    1. Skloppy Kops
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Maximin

  20. Gudjohnsen
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Is Aguero starting today?

    1. BENOIT
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Lol

  21. tinear
    • 2 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Shaw to

    1. Azpi
    2. Anyone up to 5.8

    Zaha to
    A. Mount
    B. Raph

    Couldn’t afford TAA unless I ship both out for -4. Thoughts?

  22. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Rival will TC Salah with 12pt lead. Best move?

    A. Kane+Jota >> Mane(C)+Bamford
    B. DCL+Jota >> Bamford(C)+Raph

    Mendy
    TAA. Holding. Rudiger
    Salah. Son. Greenwood. Jota. ASM
    Kane. Antonio
    (Forster. DCL. Digne. Ward)

    1. ballsy_b
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      A

    2. Crunchie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      A

  23. Sharkytect
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Any leaks yet!?

    1. HonestBlatter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Haven't seen any

    2. Guru Mediation
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Just the United rumour

      1. Sharkytect
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 8 hours ago

        Rumour?

      2. Rolls-Royce
        • 7 Years
        4 months, 8 hours ago

        whats the rumour

        1. jason_ni
          • 5 Years
          4 months, 8 hours ago

          Just in time for ogs to roll out the "having Phil Jones back will be like having a new player during the summer"

    3. Jon Snow
      • 6 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      I just had my 2nd of the day

      1. Skloppy Kops
        • 6 Years
        4 months, 8 hours ago

        which one?

  24. HonestBlatter
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Bring Robbo for Digne and double Pool defence?

    1. SHOWSTOPPERRR
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      For free yes

  25. ballsy_b
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    I’m well ahead in my mini leagues. Already done a -4 to bring in Mane & Raphina.

    Should I transfer out a) Mahrez or b) DCL?

    Who to bring in?
    I have no West Ham or Chelsea.
    So could do Mahrez to Mount?

  26. Hitthewall
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Play Forster or Pickford?

    1. ballsy_b
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Same dilemma. I’m playing Pickford

  27. Hansel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    A) Raphinha in 3-5-2
    B) Bamford in 3-4-3
    Trying to go from 128k to within the top 100k

    1. jason_ni
      • 5 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      If solely chasing or, go for the lower owned.

  28. Bubbles1985
    • 4 Years
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Protecting a couple of ML leads but chasing in a couple makes the decision today impossible!!

    Captain...

    Salah
    Antonio
    Bamford

    1. ballsy_b
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Salah

    2. HonestBlatter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      BAM BAM BAM hattie

  29. winchester
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    Lowton or rudiger??

    Have mendy in goal

    1. SHOWSTOPPERRR
      • 3 Years
      4 months, 8 hours ago

      Lowton

      1. winchester
        4 months, 8 hours ago

        Cheers

  30. BurnMyBread
    • 1 Year
    4 months, 8 hours ago

    A) Digne and Iheanacho
    B) Tierney and Watkins