From points hits to Free Hit: How FPL managers are planning for Gameweek 18

Blank Gameweek 18 has thrown even the best-laid Fantasy Premier League (FPL) into disarray and managers have a firefighting task on their hands as we approach Saturday’s 13:30 GMT deadline.

Only five Premier League fixtures have survived, with half of the scheduled matches falling by the wayside because of the nationwide rise in Covid cases.

Many Fantasy bosses face a tough task in getting even 11 players out this weekend so, from polls to Hot Topics, we’ve been gauging how the Fantasy Football Scout community are planning to approach Gameweek 18.

HOW MANY PLAYERS CAN FPL MANAGERS GET OUT BEFORE TRANSFERS?

Over 90% of FPL managers we polled can’t get to a playable starting XI without at least one transfer, while almost 30% have seven or fewer players staring back at them as we approach Gameweek 18.

Using LiveFPL’s data, we can see how many players from each active Gameweek 18 club are owned on average – before transfers – by managers within the top 10k:

That adds up to an average of 9.25 players with a Gameweek 18 fixture, although that figure will of course include bench fodder options such as Josh Brownhill and Keinan Davis.

HOW MANY POINTS HITS ARE FPL MANAGERS TAKING?

Despite the player shortage, over 80% of voters said they would be taking either a -4 or no hits at all – although within that figure are those deploying either a Wildcard (WC) or Free Hit (FH) chip this week.

Around 4% of managers, perhaps the template-dodgers given that Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea are all in action this weekend, will be running into double figures with their points hits.

GAMEWEEK 18: TIME TO FREE HIT?

There are pros and cons to playing the Free Hit chip this weekend: some will argue that it’s best served being kept for a week when there are more differential picks to target or saved for a Double Gameweek with a higher ceiling, others will argue that this is exactly what the chip is for, ie to avoid a mammoth points hit.

A not-insignificant total of 21.22% of the voters who responded in our poll said they were considering using the chip in Gameweek 18.

RedLightning was one of many to pose the ‘Free Hit or not’ question, with the consensus for the latter:

SEAHAWK

What’s to say there won’t be further decimated Gameweeks with only 4-8 teams playing? It depends on your team I guess but I think the most prudent approach is to hold as it looks like it’s only going to get worse.

WILD ROVER

Assuming there are no more postponements, a hit or two should suffice. If there are more, then FH would be wasted anyway and would be far more important in a big Double Gameweek imo.

DIESEL001

No chance. Every team is going to get affected by Covid:

– No bubbles or lockdowns in the last few months, so the virus has been able to spread faster
– Colder (and falling) temperatures, which means immunity levels are lower compared to when it is warmer
– Omicron is more transmissible than previous variants

WHAT TO DO WITH THE WILDCARD?

Spare a thought for the patient group of FPL managers who have resisted the urge to activate their Wildcard over the last four months, saving it for closer to Christmas, only for Covid-19 to utterly muddy the waters with regards to long-term planning.

Over 85% of those with their Wildcard still intact won’t be deploying it today, with 60%+ still not sure when they will use it.

LiveFPL report that 42.24% of FPL managers overall still have their Wildcard to use, although ‘dead teams’ will be skewing that figure. A better gauge is perhaps what’s happening in the top 10k, where just 3.37% of Fantasy bosses haven’t pulled the trigger yet.

AC Yew’s Hot Topic posed the question of what remaining Wildcarders should do, with opinion divided on the best course of action:

ËÐ

I’m leaning towards chopping my team up a bit this week then using WC to fix next GW.

KING OF KINGS.

I’ve got mine and will try to hold it. I can hopefully field 10 players with one hit this week which is good enough for me right now. It’s been a tough couple weeks though…..

With WC I’d rather be able to change to a team that I’ll be happy with long term so willing to wait another week or two.

DIAMONDGEEZER

The plan was to hold until last possible GW for AFCON/World Club Cup preparation. It will be a shame if I lose it or everyone is given one due to games stopping. I was hoping it would be a big advantage on those who have used it already.

I guess I will wait until Monday and see what is agreed then. I don’t see the value in using it now I can still field 10 players currently. I am not sure stopping the league solves the Covid problem anyway, it only delays the problem as the risk will be there in January also.

FORZA

I can get 11 out for -4 and I like the 9 I already have. I’m holding it.

The problem with doing it now is the lack of long-term options who also play in the short term; I don’t think there’s a single striker who plays this GW that I really want to own in the long run. In terms of defenders and midfielders, there are a few but most of us own many of them already.

Hopefully it’s just a short wave and the whole league won’t get postponed in the next couple of weeks. Enjoy that jinx.