FPL notes: Wilson v Isak + more Newcastle defensive woe

Having already dissected the games at Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge, our attention turns to the four remaining Premier League fixtures contested on Saturday.

In these Scout Notes articles, we round up the action from a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) slant.

All the key numbers from the day’s football, from bonus points to expected goals (xG), can be found here.

WILSON BRACE, MORE DEFENSIVE WOE

Alexander Isak (£7.0m) with the superior ‘expected’ minutes, Callum Wilson (£7.1m) the greater threat of the two when he is on the field. That seemed to be the general view of Newcastle United’s forwards ahead of Gameweek 36 and that’s effectively what panned out at Elland Road, even if Wilson’s two goals were both from the penalty spot.

Isak lasted the duration of the two-all draw with Leeds United as Wilson was hooked after 72 minutes but it was 5-0 to the latter in terms of shots in the box, with the Swede again operating from the left flank. He wasn’t a touchline-hugging winger, it has to be said, and there were a number of threatening moments when he drove into the hosts’ box without getting a shot away. Isak also won the first penalty that Wilson converted.

Above: There was plenty of drifting into central positions from Alexander Isak despite his start on the left wing

But owners would no doubt prefer to see him leading the line, something that may still happen against Brighton and Hove Albion if Eddie Howe decides to divide his two strikers’ minutes with the Thursday-Monday turnaround in mind.

Once the game-time from the Albion match is totted up, it might be easier to guess if one or both will start against Leicester City in a favourable Gameweek 37 encounter on Tyneside.

At the back, it was a familiar tale. Kieran Trippier (£6.1m) created chances without reward, Fabian Schar (£5.1m) racked up the shots without scoring (he’s now had 48 without success since his Gameweek 1 howitzer from distance) and the Magpies once again finished without a clean sheet. It’s now just one shut-out in 15 matches for Howe’s side and while there have definitely been some hard-luck stories during that run, it’d be wrong to say that Leeds didn’t deserve to bust their clean sheet on Saturday. The damage could have been greater, indeed, had Patrick Bamford (£7.1m) not missed a first-half penalty.

Eight goals have now been conceded in the four matches that Sean Longstaff (£4.3m) has not started recently, Newcastle’s midfield often being overrun without him. Even Howe admitted that the Magpies have missed him.

“The scoreline should have been a victory for us today. I believe with the spirit we showed, the commitment we showed if we’re going 2-0 up I think would have, the way we defended the game apart from silly penalties, of course, we would have won the game.” – Sam Allardyce

As for Leeds, Sam Allardyce has at least instilled some real fight into them after the capitulations of the Javi Gracia era.

‘Dogged’ would probably be a good description of their performances in Gameweek 35 and 36, with the Whites hanging in there when their high-flying opponents were on top.

They probably won’t be the pushovers that many FPL managers hoped they would be in Gameweek 38 when Tottenham Hotspur come calling, although it may be ‘win or bust’ by then – something that would play into Spurs’ counter-attackers’ hands.

KANE FINDS A WAY

“Life, uh, finds a way”, said Jeff Goldblum in 1993 dinosaur romp Jurassic Park. Harry Kane (£11.4m) is much the same when it comes to goals, even when his team is playing dreadfully – as happened on Saturday at Villa Park – and when he can’t find a way to score by honourable means – as happened on Saturday at Villa Park.

Spurs had an xG of 0.00 in the first half against Aston Villa, eventually coming into the game after the break. Kane had uncharacteristically spurned a big chance before he inevitably got on the scoresheet, his goal arriving from 12 yards after he, if we’re being generous, ‘initiated contact’ with Emi Martinez (£5.0m) to win a late spot-kick.

Kane now needs just two more strikes to match his best-ever goals tally in a single league season (29), while he requires only three more points to better his highest-ever points total of 242.

Spurs were limp on the road again but, in mitigation, a trip to Aston Villa is a tricky prospect these days. Unai Emery racked up their sixth successive win on home soil and would have had another clean sheet to go with it had Kane not won that late penalty. Pedro Porro (£4.8m) was nullified and Son Heung-min (£11.5m) was repeatedly caught by the offside trap; the Villans’ backline should give Liverpool’s attack their toughest test in quite a while in Gameweek 37.

Ollie Watkins (£7.4m) ended his run of blanks and it was a decent display from the striker, who was involved in two big chances – one spurned by him, the other by Leon Bailey (£4.3m). He eventually won the free-kick that Douglas Luiz (£4.8m) scored from.

EZE DOES IT

Pop quiz: who is the leading sub-£6.0m FPL midfielder for points this season? Miguel Almiron (£5.4m)? One of the Brighton contingent, perhaps? The answer, you won’t be surprised to read after seeing the above sub-heading, is Eberechi Eze (£5.5m).

His second 16-point haul in the space of six games arrived in the 2-0 win over Bournemouth, a brace against the Cherries taking him to double figures for goals in 2022/23.

Half of his 14 attacking returns have arrived since Roy Hodgson returned to the club ahead of Double Gameweek 29, the avuncular head coach bringing the best out of his young midfielder after a period of stagnation under Patrick Vieira.

“It’s what Eze has added to his game, not what we have added to his game. All we can do is try use his talents to the full and get him into positions where he can showcase those talents, and persuade him there are certain things he needs to do to get into those positions. Not only offensively, but defensively too.” – Roy Hodgson

Above: FPL assets sorted by points since Roy Hodgson took charge at Crystal Palace

A threat from open play and free-kicks, might Eze also have penalty-taking responsibility in the remaining two Gameweeks? Hodgson had recently stressed that Wilfried Zaha (£7.2m) and Luka Milivojevic (£4.2m) were still his first choices from the spot but the latter is injured (and barely involved when fit) and the former picked up a potentially season-ending hamstring strain against Bournemouth. Eze, meanwhile, scored from 12 yards in Gameweek 34.

“I’m concerned for him. We don’t have that many injuries at the moment, so we do have players, but I would have liked to have him with me for the last two games as well. At the moment, I can’t tell you if that will happen or not. He will have to go for a scan.

“One is always concerned that with hamstring injuries, it will take some sort of time. A week is a short period of time for a hamstring injury, but it’s not impossible with a guy like Wilf – he has fantastic powers of recovery.”

“But I couldn’t tell you how long it will take until he has a scan. I could give you a better prognosis if you come to the press conference next week.” – Roy Hodgson on Wilfried Zaha’s injury

Michael Olise (£5.3m) meanwhile made it to 10 assists for the campaign when setting up Eze for his second, a tally that only four other Premier League players can beat. Other/further attacking returns should have followed for the winger, with Zaha spurning an excellent opportunity that Olise had carved out on 25 minutes.

The division’s worst travellers, Nottingham Forest, await in Gameweek 38.

It’d be laziness to just attribute the Cherries’ limp display to simply being ‘on the beach’ but even head coach Gary O’Neil suggested his troops were not “fighting for every single ball and every single point” at Selhurst Park, a passivity that owners of Man Utd players will be hoping continues into Gameweek 37.

“We were really poor today. I think we dropped below our level for the first time in a while. From a human point of view, 39 points is a good tally. But a good lesson for everybody involved that if we’re not desperate and we’re not at 120 percent like we have been recently and fighting for every single ball and every single point and you drop your levels slightly against a good Crystal Palace side, you get well beaten.” – Gary O’Neil

SOUTHAMPTON DOWN

The inevitable happened at St Mary’s on Saturday as Southampton dropped down to the Championship with a whimper.

If they’re incapable of putting up much of a fight when survival is on the line, you wonder what is in store in Gameweeks 37 and 38 when free-scoring Brighton and Hove Albion and Liverpool face the Saints.

Ruben Selles’ side had one solitary shot in the box all afternoon against Fulham, their xG of 0.35 telling a sorry story.

The Cottagers weren’t any great shakes themselves but didn’t have to be.

Both of their forwards were on the scoresheet, with Carlos Vinicius (£5.4m) opening the scoring with a tap-in and Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.6m) coming off the bench on his return from an eight-match ban.

Marco Silva admitted that he faces the same selection dilemma up front next weekend.

“I decided to start with the 11 that did a very good game against Leicester, and Carlos deserved to start as well. Of course, when you have Mitro ready to go, it’s a temptation to start with him because he’s top goalscorer and he’s been a crucial player for me and this football club.

“But I knew what Carlos can provide and deliver for us. He’s been playing well, he’s helped the team and I knew that if I needed, Mitro is going to be there ready to go.

“It was nice to see him score, it was nice to see Carlos score as well. A very good headache for me to decide for the next one.” – Marco Silva

Harry Wilson (£5.7m) was once again impressive, collecting his fifth attacking return in six starts since returning to the side. He’s not realistically an FPL target this season but one to watch for 2023/24, should he be generously priced around the £5.5m mark.